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March 2006
Lightning strikes, saps spirit
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
On Thursday, the Thrashers actually had a decent start. They were skating and getting the puck in deep in Tampa’s end and getting it out of their own reasonably quick, although the defensemen looked a bit more jumpy than usual. Problem was, when the Thrashers would get in Tampa’s zone, they couldn’t do anything with the puck except have a pass or a shot blocked and allow the Lightning to clear the zone unharmed.
When Tampa scored lightning quick (no pun intended) six minutes into the game I think it just burst the Thrashers’ bubble.
From there, the game bore an eerie resemblance to the 2-0 win that Tampa put on the Thrashers during their seven-game losing streak in late January. Tactically better than any other team in the league (I can’t explain the Thrashers’ brain cramps against Toronto), the Lightning just seem to be able to have the answer for what the Thrashers do so well offensively and that, in short, was the reason behind much of Thursday’s dominant performance in a crushing defeat for the Thrashers.
At this point, do you have any hope left that they can make up those seven points in 10 games and make the playoffs?
Tampa game’s a biggie
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So with the Thrashers have lost six points in the standings despite only having played (and lost) one game since Saturday, tonight’s game with Tampa Bay has huge implications.
One telling aspect is on defense. The Lightning’s top two defensemen – Pavel Kubina and Dan Boyle - are out. In their places will be rookies Timo Helbling (five games this season; minus-2) and Doug O’Brien (three games this season; even). How much of an advantage do you think that gives the Thrashers?
Lightning coach John Tortorella in his pregame talk said he will give heavy minutes to his four regulars – Darryl Sydor, Cory Sarich, Nolan Pratt and Paul Ranger – and try to fit the other two in situations in which they feel comfortable. I’m not so sure what that means. Sounds like those two will get about two or three shifts per period and the other four will play 25-30 minutes. Should the Thrashers pile up power play opportunities, there could be a few exhausted D-men out there for the Lightning.
On the Thrashers’ side, Garnet Exelby will be back in. Shane Hnidy will be a healthy scratch for the first time since the Detroit game on Dec. 13. It seems like even the players won’t know the pairs until game time. Exelby, who has played almost exclusively played left defense with Greg de Vries since December, said he has practiced some on the right side (he is a left-handed shot and normally plays the left side) with Jaroslav Modry. Do you think Exelby’s presence back in the lineup will help the Thrashers defensively?
Overall, what do you think of these matchups?
Getting to know Tampa
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Thrashers’ margin of error is becoming less and less. The other teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race aren’t cooperating.
New Jersey and Montreal both won Tuesday night, putting the Thrashers five points out of a playoff spot with 11 games to go.
Atlanta doesn’t play either team the rest of the regular season. That means that the three games with Tampa Bay, which joins New Jersey and Montreal at 81 points, are crucial.
The Thrashers and Lightning haven’t played since early November, but they will get very familiar with each other over the next two weeks. In addition to Thursday night, the teams meet April 6 and April 11. All three games are in Tampa.
The Thrashers have won just two games in regulation ever at the St. Pete Times Forum. But they may be catching the Lightning at a good time.
The 2004 Stanley Cup champions — stunningly healthy the past two seasons — finally have some injuries. Out are their top two defensemen, Dan Boyle and Pavel Kubina, plus high-scoring Fredrick Modin and goalie Sean Burke.
Thrashers goalie Kari Lethonen missed the first three games against the Lightning. With him in net, Atlanta is a different team.
But can they sweep three games at Tampa Bay? They may have to if they are going to make the playoffs.
Should Mellanby retire?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It may not be such a surprise that Thrashers captain Scott Mellanby is thinking of retiring at season’s end. He’s 39, he’s played 20 seasons in the league and while a very important presence on the team, he does not possess the skills he had when he broke into the league.
At certain times in games you can see when coach Bob Hartley wants to try to give the team a little bit of an offensive lift, he’ll put any of Marian Hossa, Ronald Petrovicky or Brad Larsen at right wing with Ilya Kovalchuk and Marc Savard in place of Mellanby. Yet Mellanby still is on the first power play unit where skating is not at a premium and he can set up in front of the net and hammer away as he did in the best of his years.
What are your thoughts on whether Mellanby should retire? Would you like to see him back? No one can doubt that his most significant contributions come off the ice. He’s a steadying presence on a team with a fair number of young players who have never played in the playoffs. He’s also well liked by his teammates, a good leader by example and has the respect of those around him when he speaks his mind – which he never does to such a degree that he would provoke his teammates.
Math appears in ATL’s favor
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After practice an early practice on Monday, the Thrashers left for a team-building type retreat. They’ll be back in time for a later-than-usual practice on Tuesday.
They’ll fish, play golf and have a dinner. There’s even a paintball game involved.
With 11 games to go and three points out of the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot, maybe a bonding activity and getting away from a bit of the pressure will help.
Here’s some simple math: If either Montreal or New Jersey (both tied for the final two spots) go 6-5, the Thrashers could earn a spot by going 7-3-1. If one of them goes 5-6, the Thrashers could get in by going 6-4-1. If both win seven games or more, the Thrashers are in trouble.
The way the Devils are going, they might be the team to catch. They’re 2-5-1 in their last eight and they face perhaps the most daunting schedule: at Ottawa on Tuesday, against Buffalo on Thursday, at Philadelphia on Saturday, at Pittsburgh on Sunday, Pittsburgh again on April 5, then at Montreal, home against the Rangers, at Carolina, two home games with Philadelphia and finishing at Montreal.
In short, every team is above them in the standings except Pittsburgh.
Of course, the Thrashers have those three huge games with Tampa Bay, the first of which is on Thursday, but the Lightning, five points ahead of the Thrashers, appear to be safe.
The Thrashers are 9-4 since the Olympic break. If they keep up that pace, they’ll probably be OK.
How do you like their chances?
Running to stand still?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Here’s a stat for you: Since the end of their horrendous three-game road trip to the west coast in the first week of December, the Thrashers are 23-13-3. Had they played the whole season at this pace, they would be a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference and finish the regular season with 103 points.
But then we would be lacking all of the drama of this playoff race, wouldn’t we?
In light of the last two games – overcoming multiple-goal deficits in the third period and scoring the tying goals in the final minutes of regulation – what do you think it says about this team? Are the Thrashers definitely a lock to make the playoffs now? Halfway through Thursday’s game I was thinking they were about to slip back into ninth place. These comeback wins certainly put a different spin on things, though, don’t they?
I’ve also seen it written in a few papers – Toronto ones come to mind – that the Thrashers are a team that one would not want to play in the playoffs. Would you agree with that assessment or do you think that if they do make the playoffs, they’ll be so exhausted from this extended run that they’ll come up flat?
Ovechkin vs. Kovalchuk
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In a recent issue of The Hockey News, New Jersey Devils goalie Martin Brodeur was quoted as saying that Washington Capitals’ Russian rookie sensation Alexander Ovechkin reminded him of Ilya Kovalchuk in Kovalchuk’s first year. It sounded like a dig, but this morning I asked Brodeur what he meant.
He had a great explanation. He likened the team that Kovalchuk broke in with to the one that Ovechkin is breaking in with (he noted the exception of Kovalchuk’s having Dany Heatley): There’s not much talent around Ovechkin who plays on one of the worst teams in the league. That has allowed Ovechkin this season and – it allowed Kovalchuk in his first – to freewheel and make exciting plays without much regard to the game situation.
To further the parallel, as happened to Kovalchuk in his first few seasons (not that it has completely ended just yet, but it does mostly seem to be a thing of the past), Ovechkin was benched for 14 minutes in a recent game. Not surprisingly, in a story by The Washington Times, the reasons given for the benching were poor defensive coverage by Ovechkin, as well as overstaying his shifts.
Brodeur went on to say that Kovalchuk has lost some of the flash, as he now has to be part of a team game on a team that is vying for a playoff spot, but he has not lost any of his effectiveness, as his 43 goals (third in the league) attest.
Certainly, Ovechkin is a bit more physical. These two players are two years apart in age, play the same position and come from the same country. They’re likely to share the same stage for years to come.
What do you think of this comparison?
Miracle win part of mission
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
OK, forget about Tuesday’s blog. After looking at the first 58:52 of Tuesday’s game with Boston, it appeared that the premise would hold: Montreal would lose on the same night as the Thrashers did, thus keeping the Thrashers one point out of eighth.
But the Thrashers pulled off another miraculous win. These are the kinds of wins that land teams in the playoffs. The Thrashers are 11-4 since their seven-game losing streak and seven of those wins have either come in overtime or by shootout, all of which goalie Kari Lehtonen has had a huge impact on.
Despite a completely awful first two periods, the Thrashers had such an impressive third period that they now look like a team on a mission. That would be confirmed on Thursday if they beat New Jersey, a team that has lost four of five and which the Thrashers have beaten in all three meetings this season.
Incidentally, the next few days have some games that will have a significant impact for the Thrashers: Montreal and Toronto play each other on Thursday and Saturday (curiously, both in Montreal). A sweep by Toronto could put the Leafs back in playoff position and knock Montreal farther out of the race, perhaps for good. A sweep by Montreal could have the opposite effect.
Yes, there are 13 games left. But do you think that now that the Thrashers have arrived in one of the top eight spots they won’t look back and will sail into the postseason? Will this be a see-saw situation right until the end? Or is the stabilizing factor of Lehtonen too great for this team to miss out now? (How’d you like to be Tampa riding John Grahame or Toronto with its Mikael Tellqvist experiment – good timing for that, isn’t it?)
Eighth spot remains elusive
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, The Thrashers keep winning but somehow that eighth spot in the Eastern Conference remains elusive. They’re now 10-4 in their last 14 games but pesky Montreal remains one point ahead of them.
The good news is that the more the Thrashers win, the more a larger number of teams is within striking distance. (The Canadiens, New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning are all within five points.)
How do you interpret Monday’s 5-0 win over Buffalo? A good sign of more things to come or a sign of futility that no matter how much the Thrashers win, their competition continues to stay ahead of them? Do you think that if they keep this pace up, making the playoffs is inevitable or did the Thrashers just dig themselves too large a hole in October and then again later in January and February?
Getting it in Blueland?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In the first half of the season when the Thrashers were winning, they could do so simply by relying on their overwhelming offensive firepower.
With playoff berths on the line now, the games are so tight. Ilya Kovalchuk told me on Wednesday that he thinks almost every team is dropping back four players on defense.
The most positive sign for the Thrashers is that they seem to have adjusted. Some of their play recently has been revelatory. (Certainly, I do not mean the Ottawa game; or the Florida or Washington games when they fell back on those old habits of knowing they could beat teams against which they were vastly more talented.)
But in the games against the Rangers and definitely in Thursday’s against the Islanders, they just played differently to my eye. Gone are most of the freewheeling and the nonsense (horrendous penalties, terrible decisions, egregious turnovers) and they look like a serious team that plays playoff hockey.
As Serge Aubin told me today, this time of year you don’t necessarily win on skill, you win by chipping the puck forward, out of your zone and deep into the other team’s end. For just such a reason, the Thrashers can actually protect a lead. Getting Patrik Stefan back (he’ll take part in Saturday’s morning skate) will only further this style of hockey.
Do you see the same evidence of this transformation? The Thrashers have shown sustained stretches of quality play. They went 13-2-3 in December and January. They’re currently 9-3-0.
To me, it’s a no-brainer that if they continue this kind of play – not necessarily at the same mathematical progression – they will make the playoffs. The question: Will they continue this disciplined, efficient style of hockey?
Do they finally get it?
Super superstitious
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Today at the morning skate I saw a player on the New York Islanders bench who looked just like former Thrasher Tommy Santala.
I mentioned this later to Kari Lehtonen who figured it was probably the Islanders’ Sean Bergenheim. Then Lehtonen told me that Bergenheim, a fellow Finn, is one of his oldest friends. Apparently, they’ve played together since they were about 12 years old. They played juniors together and then played professionally in Finland with the club Jokerit.
The two had dinner in Buckhead on Wednesday after the Islanders arrived. Lehtonen told me that Bergenheim would not score tonight. Bergenheim said if he did, he’d live on it for the whole summer.
Bergenheim also told a story about Lehtonen’s superstitious nature. One year back in Finland, Lehtonen wore the same shirt every day on his way to the arena for good luck.
Goalies have the reputation for being a bit loony. The closest I’ve seen one come so far is Steve Shields, who is quite a character. After playing only a few games for the Thrashers, he started recommending to his teammates after a shootout as to where they should shoot the puck. So as eccentricities go, I think Lehtonen is a bit on the mild side.
Here’s a two-fold question: If Lehtonen had been with the Thrashers all season, what place do you think they would be in? And where do you think they would be without him right now? And how many games do you think he would have played? Tonight’s start will be his franchise-record 18th in a row. It will also be his 27th in 28 games. Right now, it looks like he’ll probably play every game now until the end of the season, unless the Thrashers have some sort of cushion going into the final few days of the season to make the playoffs, Lehtonen gets hurt or completely blows up because of exhaustion.
Pretenders vs. Contenders
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In these final weeks of the NHL season, it’s so hard to tell who the pretenders are and who the real contenders are. The week after the Olympic break ended, Boston still appeared to be a contender. They beat the Thrashers to pull back into a tie for the first two games.
Toronto seemed as if they were sunk. The New York Islanders appeared too far out.
Now, Boston is buried and Toronto and the Islanders are nipping at the Thrashers’ heels, only two points out after Tuesday’s games.
Montreal has lost once in regulation since the break ended and Tampa has won twice.
Each team’s 16, 17 or 18 final games represent a lot of hockey to be sure. But things can change fast. Once you’re out from this point on, it’ll be almost impossible to get back in. The Thrashers have that saving grace of their games with Tampa, but they can’t put themselves in a position of having to win them all. (Incidentally, when Tampa lost with 5.2 seconds left in regulation on Tuesday, Marc Savard told me today he “could hear Bob [Hartley] yelling from his house.�)
So who do you think are the pretenders and who are the contenders? Can Mikael Tellqvist be the goalie that helps Toronto make a last-ditch run? Is Cristobal Huet really going to be this good in goal for Montreal the rest of the way? Can Tampa possibly be this bad? And what about the Thrashers? Can they sustain an 8-3 pace for the rest of the year?
No rush for Exelby
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I don’t think I’ve blogged on the subject of Garnet Exelby’s concussion (although I might have forgotten already) but here goes.
This one seems so simple to me. If you see the hit in slow motion (or even at regular speed) the New York Rangers’ Ryan Hollweg clearly throws an elbow into the face of Exelby, who was looking for the puck, not a coming hit. The play came on the same shift that Exelby put a clean hit on Jaromir Jagr.
There was no morning skate for Sunday’s game since the game was at 5 p.m. (and the Rangers, when they do skate, hold them at their suburban practice facility almost an hour north of Madison Square Garden any way) so it was not possible for me to ask Hollweg about the hit, which the Thrashers said was dirty. Bob Hartley continued to say this after the league made clear it would not suspend Hollweg.
Before the game in the media room, I was watching MSG Network’s pregame show and Sam Rosen, I believe, did an interview with Hollweg. Hollweg said in the same breath that he did not know he was hitting Exelby and also that the team could not allow opponents to put big hits on one of their best players.
When I mentioned this response to Exelby today at practice, he said, “I’m looking forward to not knowing it was him next year.� Good line.
It looks like Exelby is fine and he’ll probably play on Thursday. But his concussion history is worrisome. He indicated that with this being his third, he did not want to rush right back into playing.
So here’s a question: Last week the league suspended Boston’s Nick Boynton for one game for making “a threatening gesture� – he made a throat-cutting gesture to, I believe, Montreal’s Mike Ribeiro – so which is more dangerous in the league’s view, a gesture or an actual head injury?
Playing catch-up
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Today’s belated blog is about the Tampa Bay Lightning. (Sorry, it was a travel day for me; they always get me out of whack.)
Do you think the Thrashers will catch them? I think tonight’s game between Tampa Bay and Montreal (at Montreal’s Bell Centre) will be very telling. It might sound silly to put so much importance on one game, but if Tampa wins against a Montreal team that is playing almost unbeatable hockey right now (they’ve lost once in regulation since the Olympic break ended in contrast to Tampa Bay, which has won once) I think they have a chance to rally. If they lose, they might be roadkill.
Similarly, I thought Sunday’s Thrashers’ win over the Rangers was telling. Had the Thrashers lost, there was a possibility that Tampa, with two games before the Thrashers’ next one, could have been eight points ahead in the standings. Now, the Thrashers stand one win away from tying the Lightning.
In Tampa’s three remaining games left with the Thrashers, how many points do you think the Thrashers will need to take? Would three simply be enough? Or is four, five or six necessary?
Not much trading news
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It looks like with the passing of the trading deal, the Thrashers’ only move was to acquire defenseman Steve McCarthy from Vancouver (perhaps in direct response to Garnet Exelby’s injury on Thursday), as reported on the Web site of Canadian cable broadcaster SportsNet.
The Thrashers are reported to have given up a conditional draft pick in 2007.
There were plenty of other deals made. Who do you think were the winners and losers?
Was Colorado a big winner (or a loser) in getting an injured Jose Theodore. Did Carolina make out the best gaining Mark Recchi? Or Vancouver’s getting Buffalo goalie Mika Noronen, Anaheim defenseman Keith Carney and New Jersey defenseman Sean Brown?
Also, it appears Edmonton has obtained high-scoring winger Sergei Samsonov from Boston in addition to goalie Dwayne Roloson from Minnesota on Wednesday.
Do you think the Thrashers’ trade (or comparative inactivity) will help them or hurt them in the final 19 games? Often, trade deadline deals are overblown, without major impact on the teams who make them.
What do you think will be the effect for the Thrashers and the rest of the league?
Ticking down to trade deadline
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With the trading deadline on Thursday at 3 p.m., much of the NHL has been quiet. The salary cap factors into it many weighs -– teams cannot add a myriad of dollars anymore and, indirectly, teams need to keep productive younger players and prospects (read: lower-salaried) to balance out their lineup. In addition, with the trading deadline two weeks earlier this year, many more teams remain in the race and are reluctant to break up their teams while they still have a chance.
With that said, what moves would you like to see the Thrashers make? General manager Don Waddell has talked for a while about adding a center who is good on faceoffs. But that problem could be sorting itself out with rookie Jim Slater taking on a larger role that includes faceoffs and he has won 57 percent of nearly 200 draws this season.
Many fans seem to want Waddell to add a defenseman. The kind that fans seem to want would be pricey and might also have a heavy cost in terms of what would needed to be traded to land them. (Waddell also has said he does not want to ruin the team’s chemistry by trading an important player off his roster and most teams are said to want a roster player.)
Do you think that league-wide things will remain quiet or will there be a ton of trades as usual?
Any way, have at it.
In striking distance of Lightning
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Encouraged or discouraged?
On the one hand, the Thrashers have won three of four since the Olympic break and six of eight overall, yet managed to slip a point in the standings to Montreal.
On the other hand, they’re now within striking distance of Tampa Bay, which is looking like it could be on the verge of imploding. Outscored 18-4 in their last three games, all losses, the Lightning definitely are struggling to regain their form of 2003-04 when they won the Stanley Cup. Oddly, they have mostly the same roster.
Twenty games left. It will be easier for the team and its fans to breathe easier if or when they reach the No. 8 spot. But that is not going to come without a hard struggle.
Waddell’s ruse: genius or revisionism?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just curious what everyone thinks of Don Waddell saying his playoff guarantee was a ruse to throw attention off of Ilya Kovalchuk’s illegal sticks and the team’s seven-game losing streak.
Since then, the Thrashers have won five of seven. Do you think that was a bit of revisionist history, or do you believe what he says and that the move was calculated the whole time?
If so, do you think it helped to alleviate pressure off the team and enable the winning you see now?
Or is it just a completely irrelevant side issue, as the Thrashers would have resumed winning regardless?
Biased much?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s a funny prejudice that the NHL’s nontraditional markets have to deal with. I’ve had this conversation with writers that I know who work in markets like Atlanta and even some Canadian writers who are aware of the situation.
Here’s an example. Last night for its game with the Thrashers, Boston drew 16,009 fans. We’re all aware of the difference between official attendance figures and how full the place actually looks – virtually regardless of sport and team – so let’s just say the T.D. Banknorth Garden looked about two-thirds to three-quarters full.
Now Boston is an Original Six market. They’ve been playing hockey there for at least 80 years. Thursday’s game was probably the Bruins’ biggest to date of the season, yet they couldn’t muster anything near a full house.
Had the same happened in Atlanta, Carolina, Nashville, Phoenix or San Jose, hockey snobs would have said it’s the product of a bad market. What’s the excuse for Boston? Buffalo is another example. For years the Sabres have not drawn well and they’re bolstered by a hockey-mad market just across the Niagara River that attends their games in large numbers.
So do you think there is a prejudice that nontraditional markets must face that traditional ones do not have to? Or is the league facing a different problem? Is the product too watered down, the arenas too big, the product not marketed well enough even in markets that should be flourishing?
Can consistency continue?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Thrashers picked up where they left off on Wednesday, beating a good Buffalo team on the road soundly 4-2. They had the good fortune of Boston losing at Carolina 4-3, as well. Tonight, they face those Bruins, over which the Thrashers hold a two-point lead in the standings.
With that first game after the Olympic break, are you now more optimistic? The Thrashers have won four of five and Kari Lehtonen is possibly playing his best of the season. In winning the last three games, he has allowed four goals and stopped all three Montreal shooters in Feb. 11’s shootout win.
Teams can’t get much more up-and-down than the Thrashers. But if they play the last 24 games “up� there’s probably no doubt that they’ll make the playoffs. The question is, can they be consistent enough to do that?
Bobby Holik is back and Lehtonen appears healthy – two huge factors that should help consistency.
All eyes on Holik
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
All eyes will be on Bobby Holik as the Thrashers return from the Olympic break to begin their playoff push.
The game at Buffalo on Wednesday night against the Sabres will be the veteran center’s first since he broke his left foot Jan. 1 at Washington.
Needing someone to replace Patrik Stefan (sports hernia surgery), coach Bob Hartley will start Holik between Peter Bondra and Marian Hossa, Olympic teammates for Slovakia.
The other top line is Marc Savard centering Ilya Kovalchuk and Scott Mellanby.
Slava Kozlov joins Ronald Petrovicky on a line centered by rookie Jim Slater. The fourth line has Serge Aubin, Brad Larsen and Rico Fata, with Eric Boulton scheduled to be a healthy scratch against his old teams.
The Thrashers have 24 games left and are in a four-way battle for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with Montreal, Toronto and Boston. The Thrashers play at the Bruins on Thursday night.
Thrashers general manager Don Waddell pulled off a trade on Wednesday, but it was hardly the big move fans had been hoping.
By unloading oft-injured goalie Jani Hurme, however, the Thrashers saved about $250,000 in payroll. That could come in handy later as Waddell continues to explore trade options for a proven center.
Meanwhile, the Thrashers hope Holik won’t take long to get the rust out.
