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Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Over and under
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I don’t bet. It’s not legal, you know. But I love to look at betting lines. They give sports fans one more thing to argue about.
So here are one man’s over-and-under numbers for Saturday’s game between Georgia Tech and Maryland.
Sacks for Tech’s defense: 4. Over could spell a whole lot of trouble for Maryland, which has been one of the worst teams in the ACC in pass protection. Under means Tech isn’t shutting down the run enough to get a consistently strong pass rush.
Completion percentage for Tech: 48. Over means the Yellow Jackets have a chance to win, because they really don’t need a great passing game, just a credible one. Under means Tech’s offensive hopes rest entirely on the shoulders of Tashard Choice and the offensive line and fullback.
Yards per carry for Keon Lattimore: 4. Lattimore gets a lot of yards in part because he gets a lot of carries, more than any other rusher in the ACC’s top 10. If Tech holds him under 4 yards per carry (he averages 4.4), Maryland’s offense will struggle to sustain drives. If Tech doesn’t hold him under 4 yards a carry, the Terps set too high a mark for the Jackets’ offense.
Yards per carry for Tech: 4.4. N.C. State is the only ACC that is allowing more yards per carry than Maryland’s 4.4 (but remember who Maryland has played, including Rutgers and West Virginia). Similarly, Tech’s league-best 5.0 per carry is a very misleading statistic; the Jackets’ best yards-per-carry in ACC games was 4.1 against Clemson.
What over and unders would you set for this game, and why?
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