AJC > Sports > Tech > Blog > Archives > 2006 > November > 02
Thursday, November 2, 2006
Some stats mean more
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Statistics can be misleading, some very much so, and Georgia Tech’s a great example.
In ACC games, the Yellow Jackets are ranked No. 8 in rushing defense, No. 7 in pass defense, and No. 7 in total defense. They’re also No. 8 in passing offense, No. 7 in punt return average, No. 11 in kickoff return average, and No. 11 in kickoff coverage statistics.
First, one game, against Clemson, skewed many of these numbers badly.
More importantly, in my opinion, are some other statistics where Tech fares much, much better.
A few years ago, a member of the Falcons staff told me about a study done in the NFL that suggested the most impactful plays in football by far are sacks and turnovers. It’s not a play, but you’ve got to add field position.
The Jackets are in a spot to make it to the ACC Championship Game because - again, my opinion - they’re rocking in all three of these areas.
Yes, Calvin Johnson is leading the ACC in receiving, but Tech’s passing game is only marginally better than last season, when it ranked ninth in the ACC.
In a nutshell, the biggest differences this year (in no order) are the way Durant Brooks is punting (No. 1 in the ACC), turnover ratio (No. 1), and the fact Tech runs the ball well (No. 3) again. The Jackets’ success in these areas outweighs their struggles in others.
When Reggie Ball fumbled the other day on the first play against Miami, it was only Tech’s third lost fumble all season. In five ACC games, Tech has turned the ball over six times, and taken the ball away 13 for an ACC-best +7 ratio. Boston College, which can put a near stranglehold on the Atlantic division with a win over Wake Forest this week, is No. 2 at +4 in one less conference game.
Many of those turnovers are forced by sacks, where Tech also leads the ACC in conference games, with 18 (tied, oddly, by Virginia). Whether it’s a fumble or a rushed throw leading to a pick, pressuring the quarterback is huge.
That dovetails into the pass defense, where the Jackets are allowing 199 yards per game. That’s not great, but reflective of a team that’s been ahead more than behind (although Tech’s overcome two 10-point deficits to win ACC games, another very big factor). The Jackets are No. 5 in pass efficiency defense, garnering as many pix as TDs allowed (five each).
Protecting the ball, taking it away, the ability to run it with a realistic big-play threat from the passing game (if not a high percentage of completions) added to punting that leads to big field position changes when the offense bogs down … that’s a solid formula by any measure.
