AJC > Sports > Columnists > Archives > 2008 > February > 04 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USBraves pitching looks solid
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mark Bradley
So: You’re the newly minted general manager of a club that has finished third two seasons running, and your biggest rival just traded for the best pitcher in baseball. Your reaction?
“My reaction is that I can only take care of the Atlanta Braves,” Frank Wren said Monday. “I can’t control what other teams do.”
It’s a boilerplate response, but it’s also the only one that makes sense. Of all franchises, this one should know that seeking to match a divisional opponent pitcher for starting pitcher is the road to ruin. (Remember Len Barker, imported in 1983 at the massive expense of Brett Butler and Brook Jacoby because the Dodgers had dealt for Rick Honeycutt?) And it is, after all, only February.
Pitchers are gathering daily at Turner Field for the early-throwing camp — Andruw Jones, who’s neither a pitcher or even a Brave, made an appearance Monday to hit in the cage — and the big news is that the Braves no longer feel pressed to rustle up more arms to fill out their rotation. Said Wren: “I like the health of our guys. We’ve got some depth coming in.”
And then this: “I think we’ll send at least three major-league starters to Richmond.”
That’s a change. Last summer the Braves couldn’t put three major-league starters in Atlanta; this time Wren feels he has eight or nine guys capable of filling the five spots. Which means the Class AAA R-Braves, in their final season before resettling in Gwinnett, could well have the rotation to win the International League again. (The Governors’ Cup makes a lovely parting gift.) It would also mean that the parent club should be able to keep pace with the Mets and the Phillies in the NL East.
Said Wren: “They’re both good clubs, but I think we match up really well with them.”
You know Tim Hudson and John Smoltz. That’s two. You remember Tom Glavine. That’s three. Assuming he’s healthy, Mike Hampton would make four, but that’s the same assumption that undid the Braves these past two seasons. The difference this time? Said Wren: “We’re covered very well.”
He mentioned Jair Jurrjens, who arrived in the Edgar Renteria trade with Detroit. Signing Glavine was the transaction that commanded all the ink, but getting Jurrjens, who’s 22 and who started seven games for the Tigers in 2007, was a smaller move that should have a much longer shelf life. Jurrjens has a big-league arm, which is more than could be said for Mark Redman.
A sign of changing times: Chuck James, by default the No. 3 starter last season, might not make the 25-man roster this March. He’s in a fight with Jurrjens and Jo-Jo Reyes and Buddy Carlyle and Jeff Bennett to stay off that last train to AAA.
“We were in the mix to try and acquire more pitching last winter and all season long, but there really wasn’t anything out there,” Wren said. “We just didn’t have the depth to weather any storms. I’m most comfortable we can weather those storms now.”
Wren looks and sounds excited, which you’d expect. He waited nearly eight years for John Schuerholz to vacate the chair. Waiting wasn’t always easy, especially when speculation arose that Dayton Moore, the farm director who has since become the Kansas City general manager, had become the heir apparent. But here Wren is, and for his patience he was handed a four-year contract and an act that can’t possibly be followed.
When last the Braves had a new GM, they went from sixth place in the NL West to the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series. From there they finished first over each of the next 13 completed seasons. “I’d take half that,” Wren said, laughing. “I’d take a quarter of that.”
Let’s start with one. By jaded local standards, it has been a long time — two years and counting — between division titles. It has been so long that we around here might actually appreciate the next one.
Permalink | Comments (52) | Post your comment | Categories: Braves / MLB, Mark Bradley
Services »
Comments
By Ron H
February 4, 2008 8:41 PM | Link to this
Can’t wait for the season to begin!
By Avery
February 4, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this
My thoughts exactly. Everyone is up-in-arms about the Mets acquiring Santana, but in my opinion, that only brings their pitching staff up to OUR level. Santana may be the best starter in baseball, but Smoltz isn’t too far off. Compare their stats from last year. Obviously the thing that sets the two apart is the fact that Santana has many years left. This is the best Braves team fielded in three years, and maybe even since 2004. It should be a good, and maybe even great, season.
By Tim
February 4, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this
Agree wholeheartedly. I like Jurrjens to make it over James, but once Hampton gets hurt (if he doesn’t start the year on the shelf) we’ll see James. It’s a great and welcomed problem to have after last year’s debacle.
By Billy Austin
February 4, 2008 9:16 PM | Link to this
I really like the Jurrjens acquisition. Let’s hope we have a similar experience to getting Smoltz from Detroit. I know it’s a reach but the reports on this guy are really high. I believe that Hampton will at least pitch this year and hopefully give us more that we got from the 5 spot last year. ESPN has a story comparing Maddux to Glavine. I was pleasantly surprised to learn that Glavine had more quality starts the last three years almost every other “Ace ” in baseball. This years bullpen shouldn’t lose nearly as many games this season so Hudson, Smoltz and Glavine should end up with a couple more wins apiece. If the back end of the rotation can keep us in games we should be just fine.
By Philip
February 4, 2008 9:18 PM | Link to this
It is great to have depth but let’s pace ourselves.
We haven’t seen JJ pitch, James shoulder is wrapped in a heat pack and no one has seen Hampton pitch since the Youtube hammy pull video.
We have depth but we may use it up sooner than folks think.
Either way counting the days until ST enough with the Winter already.
By jay
February 4, 2008 9:31 PM | Link to this
Santana is a great pitcher. He will be the only ace that team has. If they didn’t get him I figure it would have been a long tough year. Now they will be able to compete. Not win the division but survive it.
I on the otherhand having a choice in the matter would have choose Texeria over Santana any day. I hope he enjoys his fat contract (Santana) because he won’t be enjoying the tiny amount of runs thats scored for him. He will probable feel like he never left the Twins. Who I believe has the better team anyway. GO BRAVES!!!!
By DHD
February 4, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this
We have lots of choices for the number 5 guy. You old timers will remember Ernie Johnson, Sr saying..”brother, you just can’t have enough pitching.”
I like having the J-Men. James, Jurrjens and Jo Jo.
By ed
February 4, 2008 9:54 PM | Link to this
Agree. Just hope Smoltz has a couple of years left in him. The guys been a warrior for a long time now; just worried that the breakdown is coming, and that would be a blow to this rotation as it stands now.
By Tim
February 4, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
Well in the next season or 2 gone will be Glavine and Hampton (after this year for sure) and Smotlz (maybe after this year). Then you have to resign Tex. And Kotsay will be gone after the 1 year transition. You have to extend Frenchy. Chipper only has a few seasons left. I think this year will be the last to fight for a World Series for a little while until the corp of young players takes the torch from the old guys. Let’s hope everyone stays healthy for a great run at it this season.
By Connie
February 4, 2008 10:07 PM | Link to this
I say bring on the MUTS, Phillies and the rest. The Braves almost beat Santana last yr but (c)loser Bob Wickman lost it for them. Can’t wait for the season to begin!
By Nick Hafer
February 4, 2008 10:33 PM | Link to this
It is amazing how the “national” media is not even including the Braves in the debate. The phillies lose a catalyst in Aaron Rowand and add a mental case in Lidge ( anyone remember Mark Wohlers)and lose a durable guy like Leiber. And the Mutts added one guy to an aging roster with four other ?’s in their rotation. The Mutts got Pedro a few years back and everyone was handing them the WS trophy then , man that has worked out really well.
By stew
February 4, 2008 10:33 PM | Link to this
I’d like Jurrjens as 4th starter with Bennett and Morton battling for the 5th spot. James gave up too many gopher balls. Hampton got a lot of heart, but I doubt if he’ll make it. Reyes is too wild. Big problem replacing Andruw. Suppose Schafer fall flat on his face. Brent’s gotta be an everyday player! I don’t care what position he plays.
By Brandon
February 4, 2008 11:08 PM | Link to this
This rotation is really good, regardless of what other fans say. I’m very excited to see this Jurjens kid pitch in ST. From the reports and reviews from scouts and minor leagers he sounds like the real deal. I wouldn’t mind seeing him as the 5th starter, depending on how he does in ST. I’m very worried about Chucky and that shoulder. And from his comments and the pics of him at Turner the other day it looks like he may be headed for some surgery or an extended period on the DL.
By scott
February 4, 2008 11:17 PM | Link to this
Jurrjens is a stud I couldn’t believe that Detroit gave him up to us. I guess they didn’t learn last time we dealt for a young pitching prospect named Smoltz.
The Braves rotation is better than the Phillies and the Mets and that’s not considering Mike Hampton. Our bullpen looks good and we will get Gonzo back in July. I can’t wait for baseball season!!!!!!
By Patrick
February 5, 2008 12:11 AM | Link to this
Now that football is over..bring on the bats!!
By Michael Wilson
February 5, 2008 1:13 AM | Link to this
Braves will win it all this year!
By Desperado Dave
February 5, 2008 1:21 AM | Link to this
Here’s hoping that Jurrjens turns in a Rookie of the Year performance and Atlanta has a surplus of pitchers to make a run at an extra bat or two down the stretch. I think Jurrjens could be the future ace of the staff when the current big three make their exodus. I would like to think that Jurrjens and Cole Rohrbaugh give the Braves a good starting point at the future. Mark Bradley, thumbs up on a great article. I hope to see much more from you, my friend.
By northgeorgiafalconfan
February 5, 2008 4:33 AM | Link to this
THE BRAVES WILL HAVE A GREAT YEAR THIS YEAR.GO BRAVES.
By northgeorgiabravesfan
February 5, 2008 4:50 AM | Link to this
I’VE GOT A FEELING THE BRAVES WILL MAKE US FANS PROUD THIS YEAR.GO BRAVES.
By itsme
February 5, 2008 5:32 AM | Link to this
I’m excited! Play ball!
By itsme
February 5, 2008 5:32 AM | Link to this
I’m excited! Play ball!
By n
February 5, 2008 6:10 AM | Link to this
This pitching staff would have been great 10 years ago. Now, its old and fragile. Hudson is strong, but everyone else is an unknown quantity. At some point, Smoltz is going to slow down. And having Hampton and Glavine in the same rotation doesn’t offer much protection against that inevitability. Hampton may never pitch again. History isn’t exactly on his side. And Glavine, well, he proved he couldn’t last the whole season with the Mets. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy, but I love winning the pennant even more. The young, unproven guys will have to step it up. Needless to say, it’ll be an exciting season. Go Braves!
By SpringFeaver
February 5, 2008 6:57 AM | Link to this
Actually Hamptons latest injury could and would have happen to most pitchers in that situation. He slipped and pulled a hammy. The mound was wet, what can you say. Mikes arms ready and hes gaining strength. He will be the number 4 and I look for him to be the comeback player of the year. Would be funnny if he lead in wins and got comeback player and cy young. He was on a tear before he got hurt. The guy can pitch.
Ok i really dont believe but its my dream, let me have it lol.
By keef1234
February 5, 2008 7:33 AM | Link to this
I’ve been defending my beloved Braves on several blogs. However, if we don’t sign Teixeira long term, then we CANNOT compete with the Redsox, mets or Yankees…especially if one of them sign him long term. HE is our ONE guy like AROD is the Yankees ONE guy…like SANTANA is the ONE guy…like POPI is the Red Sox ONE guy…We must build the franchise around him: young, bonafide superstar, NICE guy, no drugs baggage…etc… If we don’t sign Teixeira for 7 years, we end up with a team with a 43 year old pitching ace…Francouer salivating over becoming a free agent…McCann back on the Ho Ho’s and gaing 30 pounds…and it gets only worse…PLUS our franchise will be less desirable for another superstar to want to come…not to mention tix sales will plummet especially since our fans are NOT Cubs, RedSox or Yankees passionate…sold out every game… WE LOVE TEIXEIRA!
By richbrave
February 5, 2008 8:08 AM | Link to this
Braves will sign Francouer. Be certain. He is the face of the franchise for the future. Teixeira must be signed if the Braves want a stable future. People here like him -what’s to dislike? Problem is the payroll goes WAY-Y-Y up. Last on the table is a #1 SP to go with Smoltz, Hudson, Jurrjens et.al. after ‘08. Based upon current payroll figures, this is going to be a 120-125 Million payroll unless somehow the three want less. Does Liberty Media have the ability to man-up for that figure? We’ll see. It’s all about the money. As that goes, so go the Braves
By David
February 5, 2008 8:27 AM | Link to this
A few problems Mark:
1) You supported your position by getting comments from the most unbiased person in MLB. The GM for the Braves! Of course he is going to be positive.
2) You act like Hudson, Smoltz and Glavine are automatic frontline starters but Hudson has had one good year here—last year, so logic dictates he is a god bet…but to be an ace? Not sure. Smoltz is a horse and I think he’ll have a good year too but age is always lurking out there and I am not sure he is capable of being an ace. Glavine? No way. He had a great year but again, age is a factor and he is NOT an ace, not a stopper. All three of these guys are 2nd or 3rd startrs but we don’t have THE GUY. You ave to have a guy that can carry you. We don’t have that.
Then you mention Hampton…..that is rolling a might big set of dice but let’s give him the benefit of teh doubt and he goes 10-7.
Then James or Jo Jo or Jurrens(sp).
This is a pretty good staff, even good enough to win the WC, but NEVER will this staff win the World Series. Isn’t that what we are playing for?
And this is not even mentioning the bullpen which I think will be good, but again, no closer. And don’t tell me Soriano, his fastball is as flat as I have ever seen.
Wild Card team at best but they won’t win three rounds with this staff.
By Jeff
February 5, 2008 8:33 AM | Link to this
I’ll preface this by saying I’m a re-located Mets fan. You can have Tom Glavine. In last season’s final game, it became real obvious why the Braves only won one World Series, despite winning all those Division titles. There’s no heart on that team. I’d trade Tom Glavine in his 40’s for Johan Santana in his late 20’s any day.
I also can’t wait for baseball season to begin.
By Tharasher
February 5, 2008 8:35 AM | Link to this
Santana is going to have to grab a bat and take some swings in the National League. Some very good pitchers take a full season to adjust and some simply don’t. I don’t expect much from Hampton and injuries to Chipper Jones could destroy a strong lineup. Braves are going to be in it this year, but pitching and injuries will be very important factors.
By T-Bone
February 5, 2008 8:44 AM | Link to this
If all the starters stay healthy—and that’s a big IF—what about this idea? Turn Hampton into a closer and make Soriano and then later Gonzo into set-up men. Hampton has the mental make-up for it, and it might be less stress on his arm. I like the idea of rolling into September with Gonzo, Soriano, and Hampton taking the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.
By Charles
February 5, 2008 8:51 AM | Link to this
Great observation about the disastrous Len Barker trade — that trade turned a great team lead by Dale Murphy into a non-contender. If most the main arms (Hampton excluded as he is highly questionable) stay healthy, the Braves offense should be keep them in strong contention.
By Ron
February 5, 2008 8:54 AM | Link to this
To keef1234: your blog is so full of holes it couldn’t hold a baseball. Tex is our “one guy?” What about Chipper, Frenchy, McCann, Smoltz…? A-Rod is the Yankees “one guy?” What about Jeter? Popi is Boston’s “one guy?” What about Josh Beckett? Frenchy “salivating” to become a free agent? Hardly. He is the face of the Braves for the next generation. He ain’t going nowhere. McCann back on the “Ho Ho’s?” Ticket sales will “plummet?” Wow… Don’t drive any heavy machinery today, okay, buddy?
By Chris D.
February 5, 2008 9:05 AM | Link to this
I definitely like our 1,2,3, spots in the rotation this year.It’s good to see Glavine and Smoltz together again.GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!!
By Jim H.
February 5, 2008 9:06 AM | Link to this
Jeff, we Braves fans can’t wait to season to begin to see the over hyped Mets collapse again either. After last September (hee, hee), the Mets fans don’t have much ammunition to argue with in my opinion. How many times have they lived up to their lofty projections lately?….2006 is the only year I remember.
It’s true the Braves have been out of the playoffs for a couple of rebuilding seasons (after their long unprecedented run, I might add), but with our young on-the rise lineup another playoff run is about to begin. Yep, it’s true we haven’t won a world series since ’95…which is about nine years later than the last time the Muts won one.
It’s gonna be a fun year. Go Braves!
By bream the dream
February 5, 2008 9:18 AM | Link to this
There sure is a whole lot of optimism here…
By Jeffc
February 5, 2008 10:09 AM | Link to this
Pathetic, lippy, New York transplants are not welcome in Atlanta. The Mutts wouldn’t have survived until the last day without used up former Brave Glavine. I’ll take 14 in a row and a World Series any day compared to the Mutts record since 1991.
By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)
February 5, 2008 10:11 AM | Link to this
Thank you Mark Bradley , I could not agree more. Starting pitching is the heart of a baseball team and the Braves have it in spades.
The other half of the equation is defense and again , the Braves are a better team right now than they were at the end of last season in this regard.
Mark Kotsay and Josh Anderson are fine defender’s , they should do well in replacing Andruw.
Yunel Escobar is an upgrade over Renteria when it comes to his glove work and arm.
A full season if Teixeira at first base , I can’t wait to see the kind of numbers he will put up , not to mention his near gold glove defense.
I have said it a hundred times and I’ll say it again. Offense will score runs , pitching and defense will win games.
By Gamblin Stan
February 5, 2008 10:28 AM | Link to this
solid pitching staff
but you have to replace 100 rbi’s from Jones, and a .335 batting avg and terrific 2nd spot hitter in Renteria….
sorry Bravos fans, but Texiera is not going to give any kind of discount to the Braves for 2 reasons….SCOTT and BORAS
especially with Giambi, Pavano, and other coming off the Yankees payroll and their need for a 1B
By Say What????
February 5, 2008 10:57 AM | Link to this
I believe it was last week on ESPN that I picked up a piece of info when they said that “some” baseball scouts, those guys who watch everybody day in and day out, had issues with Santana. Something about his fall off in MPH on his fastball, other potential health issues of the many innings he has thrown are starting to show, etc. That might not prove well for the Mets as his contract plays out. Could be another Pedro, who is great for a couple of seasons, then gets paid millions for sitting on the DL. Kinda like Mike Hampton does.
By McFann
February 5, 2008 11:02 AM | Link to this
Gee wiz, keef1234, chill out! And you forgot a few letters in gaining, dude. Sheesh.
By McFann
February 5, 2008 11:09 AM | Link to this
And another thing, Keef1234, you can’t gain 30 pounds from eating a few Ho-Hos. Why’d I come here, anyway? I’m leaving before I start something.
By richbrave
February 5, 2008 11:12 AM | Link to this
BY SAY WHAT????:
I’ve beeen posting here as to my doubts regarding Santana’s arm. He may have a few more stellar years, but I think that injury is more long-term than temporary.
By webhead
February 5, 2008 11:21 AM | Link to this
Everybody talks about the so-called collapse of Tom Glavine. The Mets would not have been in spitting distance of the Philles or Braves without him,so please all of you SHUT UP. I’ve never seen so many uninformed people who think they know everything about baseball. It’s like listening to a 6 year old.
By Matt
February 5, 2008 11:33 AM | Link to this
No offense, but a lot of the comments here have absolutely no basis in reality. The Mets are going to score a lot of runs. Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, and Wright are the core of a pretty strong lineup in the NL. Also, Santana’s problems last year are well within normal statistical fluctuations year to year. His K rate was still good, as was his walk rate. He’s also moving to a pitcher’s park so he’ll be even better. Lastly, Santana came up as an outfielder and is know to be an outstanding athlete. He’ll be fine hitting.
That said, the Braves have a good team with some question marks. They’ll compete but by September, it should be a 2 horse race between the Phillies and the Mets.
By Jamie
February 5, 2008 12:12 PM | Link to this
Starting pitching seems to be the topic of everybody’s comments. What about the bullpen and the closing duties. Last year the Hudson and Smoltz would have won at least 5 games more each if the bullpen/closer wouldn’t have lost it for them. The pen is going to be the thing to watch this year, I think that the starters will do their thing.
By PatioDaddio
February 5, 2008 1:59 PM | Link to this
Well Matt here is the reality to this year. The Braves had the 3rd ranked offense last year with an under performing Andruw Jones and this year the Braves will have Tex for the entire season, not just 2 months.
The Braves have much more offensive roster depth than last year and all the holes have been plugged so far.
The Mets have a bunch of health questions of their own in regards to their pitching and the Mets pitching depth is weak at best.
Last year the Braves were weak at the 3, 4, and 5 pitching spots which should be corrected and the Braves pitching depth is very strong. Also our clean up hitter left a bit to be desired on the offense portion and it has been addressed.
Something to keep in mind is the farm system that will be needed for the long season. The Mets farm is kinda weak in the ready to step in and help category. A trade might be necessary for help during the season if important players are injured. The Mets are short on trading pieces.
The Braves will have a comfortable farm to draw from if replacement parts are needed, not to mention one of the premier LH pitchers will be added to the roster when Mike Gonzalez is added.
The Mets better contact every gypsy with a gold capped tooth in New York and beyond and every priest and pray Glavine does not have a Glavine type season and Hampton is not 100% Hampton and have a season he has had in the past when healthy.
Adding to the mix would be Chuck James adding 1 inning per outing to his maturation process and pitching to his capabilities.
By timmythebrave
February 5, 2008 2:12 PM | Link to this
Just like Mets fans to think Glavine is not worth anything because of one bad start. Without him last year you wouldn’t be talking about losing the division at the end. You never would have been in the race. I agree that he is not a #1 but he makes a great #3. Look at Smoltz and Hudson’t #’s. You will have a hard time finding a better 1-2 punch in all of baseball. Santana is a great pick up for the Mets but I think our rotation compares top to bottom.
By QueensMetsfan
February 5, 2008 5:06 PM | Link to this
timmythebrave -
Let’s get a little perspective here. You’re yammering on about how the Santana deal isn’t that big deal and doesn’t make that Mets that much better, the Braves pitching is better and how the Mets sucked and collapsed last season and…yada yada…
Let’s analyze this argument:
During the unprecedented collapse of the Mets, you had Tex and Soriano as your major assets which were unsuccessfully employed to beat out the Mets to win. Yet they WERE NOT enough to beat the Mets in the standings last season, despite the Mets’ historic collapse.
The fact of the matter is that you were yet again a third place team for the second consecutive season with Tex and Andruw and Renteria and Soriano and Larry Jones yet STILL finished 4 games behind the Mets. AGAIN, this is after the worst regular season collapse in MLB history - you still finished third place 4 games behind the Mets. If the Braves were as good as you like to think, shouldn’t they have pulled in front of the Mets and finished in second place, even first?
Despite the loss of Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones (who IS a threat at the plate that must be respected no matter how horrific a slump he was in), you honestly believe the additions of light hitting Mark Kotsay with his balky back, 42 year old Tom Glavine with his 81 mph fastball, and an unproven rookie at shortstop who is bound to have growing pains liek any rookie is enough to make up the difference of those 4 games when taking into consideration the improvements the Mets have made?
The Mets replaced Tom Glavine’s 13 wins with a pitcher who can reasonably win 20 games pitching in a notorious pitcher’s park with a formidable offense supporting him. But let’s be conservative and say Santana only wins 17. That’s four more than Glavine won last season. Those wins puts you 8 wins in back of the Mets.
This does not take into account a healthy, fully recovered Pedro Martinez, John Maine’s continued maturation in his second full-season after winning 15 games with a sub 4 ERA in his first full season, a remarkable turn around last season for 15 game winning Oliver Perez (a Brave killer by the way)and his 3.5 ERA, a rebounded Jose Reyes, a full season of a healthy 2 time gold glove winner Luis Castillo, the return of a healthy Duaner Sanchez, an upgrade offensively and defensively in right field in Ryan Church, and a catcher who is going to completely shutdown the little base-stealing running game the Braves have. And this is all assuming we get the same dismal production out of Carlos Delgado this season that we got out of Delgado last season and assuming Alou plays the same amount of games this year that he did last year.
However, you should be worried about the very real possibility of a Delgado rebound in the walk year of his contract. And what if, granted it’s a big if, Alou is healthier this season than last and plays 10 - 15 more games? Remember that little 30 game hit streak of Alou’s last season?
Your Braves made moves, but from my perspective they were lateral moves that didn’t make the team appreciably better than they were in 2006 and 2007. It was more or less hole patching, not improvements. The Braves are still, at best, a third place team.
The Braves can compete with the Mets? The Phillies? The Diamondbacks?
You really honestly believe that?
By Ben
February 5, 2008 5:53 PM | Link to this
Hey Queen,
First of all, your methodology is flawed, as you can’t predict the number of games that will be won in 2008 based on the number won in 2007. That assumes that all other things stay constant, which just isn’t true. The teams faced will be different, the pitchers that happen to be faced even when playing the same teams will be different, teams are composed of slightly different players, some players will be much better in 2008 than they were in 2007 and others will be much worse, etc. etc. Oh yeah, there are injuries too, which you can’t predict. So you’re whole 4 games better to 8 games better theory is unconvincing.
Second, the Braves are likely to be be better this year because the pitching staff going into 2008 is much better and more predictable than it was last year. We were counting on Hampton in 2007; we’re not anymore. Because we counted on him, and he got injured, we were forced to go with Mark Freaking Redman as our fourth starter. We also relied on Kyle Davies as our fifth starter. That was a mistake that most of us saw coming. We’re not making that same mistake this time either. Instead of praying for Hampton and Davies, we’re going with Jurrjens (who is much more promising than either of those two) and then a steep competition for the 5-spot: James, Jojo Reyes, Bennett, Carlyle. This set of starters, obviously along with Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine, is much better than what we had last year. I mean, the guy we had penciled in as #3 last spring is now fighting for a spot in the rotation. Glavine, aside from those last 2 starts last season, is better than James. And the Braves scouts all agree that Jurrjens is going to be better than James. That’s why James isn’t assured a spot, yet Jurrjens basically is (it’s the worst-kept secret in Braves world right now).
Aside from the starters being better, we have a full year of Tex in a contract year. You seem to have forgotten that we only had him for two months. We’d like to forget that we didn’t have him all year too. In the 393 ABs by first basemen other than Tex, the totals were: .211 BA, 12 HR, 43 RBI, and an OPS in the .600s. Tex’s 208 ABS produced .317 BA, 17 HR, 56 RBI, and 1020 OPS! Again, that’s in only 208 ABs!!! Multiply that by about 3 to get a full season. You think maybe having him for a full season will make some difference for us?? What offensive additions have you guys made? Ryan Church (career .810 OPS) and Brian Schneider (career .700 OPS!)?! Those are subtractions, dude. I thought Church could be a good major leaguer a couple years ago, but he’s 29 already, and his 2007 OPS was 80 points lower than his 2006 OPS…And Brian Schneider is arguably the worst-hitting catcher in the league. And his caught-stealing percentage last year (31%) was the second worst of his career, which came in 2006. This is a guy who used to catch 40-50% of the basestealers each year, but he can’t do it anymore. And he’s 32, which in catchers’ years is getting up there.
Bottom line: the fact that we didn’t catch up to the Mets despite your horrific slide is immaterial, and can be attributed to questionable decisions regarding the starting staff back in the spring. We were in a huge hole because of the lack of starters and the strain it put on our bullpen. It was also a mistake to think we could go it with Thorman and Craig Wilson. All of that crap is gone now. Meanwhile, you guys have added Santana, which is no doubt a huge move.
But you’re still stuck with Willie Randolph, a guy that no one, especially people in New York, has any confidence in. I can’t wait for the mets to go on a 4 or 5 game losing streak. The calls to “Free Willie” will swirl…i can see it on the Daily News front cover right now.
By Andy LA
February 5, 2008 7:43 PM | Link to this
Matt
You seem to grind the ax toward the negative instead of the postive. If this was 2 weeks before the 91 season—then sure you could say no way—WC at best—but its spring traing and hope springs eternal—think rockies of last year—this team could easily get to and win the series as east champs for all we know. The Phillies have a deeper lineup—but not pitching or pen as the Braves—yes even with soriano as the closer—the mets with Santana are at best equal to the Braves starters and that is without Hampton—offensive is pretty much a wash—Braves have a better pen—could the mets and the philles crush the Braves—sure—but you Matt sound as though we are in the dogs days of summer and the braves are just not going to turn it around—spring is for hope—and if you are going to make blanket statements like our staff if a WC staff—-you miss out on the whole rockies expearence that you can have in spring training—enjoy it. There is nothing else to do for a few weeks…..till march.
By Dan
February 5, 2008 8:43 PM | Link to this
I think it is funny how the Mets fans underestimate the addition of guys like Jurrjens, Anderson, and Kotsay and a quality farm system that has provided the likes of Jo Jo, Escobar, Schafer, Bennett, James, etc. for this season because they aren’t huge names in baseball like a Johan Santana. That’s why the Braves had the division run and are always competitive. They make baseball smart moves whereas the Mets go get the big names and think that makes them the WS favorite. Sorry guys. Doesn’t work that way.
By richbrave
February 5, 2008 10:50 PM | Link to this
Queenie:
Let’s see how Atlanta does in the clutch without Wickman. I’m guessing at least 10+ games on the winning side with Teixeira full-time and Soriano, Moylan, and Gonzalez as the closers. And you guys have a ready-made Hampton of the future. You are gonna’ absolutely choke on it when he begins to break down a couple of years from now.
By richbrave
February 5, 2008 10:56 PM | Link to this
Hey, Mets Fans. Why don’t you cross-over and move on ‘DUMBO’ for awhile. Your new home isn’t winning over many Brooklyn fans. They STILL remember that shyster councilman who ran TWO NY teams to the west coast. Elephants have long memories and they know how to get even. They become die-hard Braves fans. Ha!