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Friday, December 21, 2007
2007 predictions: Wrong only when I wasn’t right
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mark Bradley
The annual Accountability Scoreboard begins with admission of a dual whiff. I was wrong about Michael Vick being a good guy and wrong about Bobby Petrino being a good hire. Give or take a billion dollars, this puts me in the same boat as Arthur Blank.
Such misses would put a crimp in any prognosticating year. In my defense, I’d note that 2007 also saw one of my proudest forecasting swoops: Asked to pick Georgia Tech’s football season game by game, I was right about the famously difficult-to-predict Jackets 11 times in 12. (I had them winning at Virginia, which they didn’t.)
Other successes: I tabbed Georgia to finish 10-2, which was spot-on in the grand scheme if not the details. (I had them losing to Alabama and Florida.) I suggested Auburn had a bound-for-the-Chick-fil-A-Bowl schedule, and guess where the Tigers will spend New Year’s Eve?
I was right about Virginia Tech winning the ACC, wrong about Florida winning the SEC. I was wrong about Alabama winning nine games, wrong about Brian Brohm taking the Heisman, wrong about USC and Texas playing for the BCS title.
More college football misses: West Virginia didn’t go undefeated, Florida State didn’t win the ACC’s Atlantic Division, and Phillip Fulmer didn’t get pushed aside in favor of David Cutcliffe. I was technically incorrect about Houston Nutt resigning before Thanksgiving; he actually quit four days after Thanksgiving.
For the first time since 2002, I pegged the eventual winner before the NCAA tournament began. I can’t brag, though: Florida was too good not to pick. I had two of the correct Final Four, which only placed me second under this roof. Elizabeth Bradley, who was 9 at the time, got three.
I thought Tech would win three games in the Big Dance, and the Jackets were gone after one. I thought Georgia would bank an NCAA bid, and maybe if Mike Mercer hadn’t hurt his knee the Bulldogs would’ve. (The Accountability Scoreboard, sad to say, doesn’t assign asterisks for injuries.)
As for the Braves: I said they’d finish third again, and they complied. I wish I’d had the guts to say flat-out the Mets were going to blow the NL East, but I only hinted. (The Accountability Scoreboard awards no credit for hints.)
I thought the Falcons would go 10-6 under their swell new coach, but I bumped that down to 9-7 after Rod Coleman and Demorrio Williams got hurt in the offseason. I readjusted that to 5-11 when Vick was indicted, and unless the Falcons win their next two games I’ll still have overrated them. I was convinced Jerious Norwood would have a breakout season, and for reasons still unclear he has barely broken a sweat.
Advocacy Department: I implored the Hawks to draft Al Horford with their first pick. They did. I also surmised that Javaris Crittenton might be their second pick. He wasn’t. I lobbied the Braves not to reacquire Tom Glavine. They ignored me.
I wrote that Chan Gailey needed to go, and two days later he went. I put forth Chris Hatcher as a replacement, and he was granted an interview before Tech hired Paul Johnson, who was my No. 2 choice. I advised the Falcons to pursue Bill Cowher in this latest coaching search — Norm Chow was my nominee to succeed Jim Mora, a notion the Falcons apparently dismissed — and Blank at least made the effort this time.
It’s a Scoreboard tradition to end each year with a bold forecast, and the 2006 installment included the assertion that an NHL team would upset Buffalo in the Eastern Conference finals and play Anaheim for the Stanley Cup. Trouble was, I believed that team would be the Thrashers, who didn’t win a playoff game, and not Ottawa.
That failure in mind, I offer another long-range pick: Georgia will go 11-1 in 2008, will win the SEC and play for the BCS title in January 2009. Kari Lehtonen might have let me down, but I just know Knowshon Moreno won’t.
Permalink | Comments (11) | Categories: Braves / MLB, Falcons / NFL, Mark Bradley, Tech / ACC, Thrashers / NHL, UGA / SEC
For Johnson, option is only option
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Terence Moore
If nothing else, you have to like new Georgia Tech football coach Paul Johnson for refusing to answer questions with an end-around. He prefers to burst up the middle, with legs still churning in search of extra yardage.
For instance: A visitor to Johnson’s office wanted to know about Sean Renfree, the nation’s 16th-best recruit at quarterback, according to Scout.com. Renfree became the first of three players to de-commit around the time previous Yellow Jackets coach Chan Gailey was fired. Before the visitor finished his question about whether Johnson’s love affair with the triple-option offense spooked the pass-oriented Renfree, Johnson began to answer.
“Don’t need him. Don’t want him. Doesn’t fit the system,” Johnson said, legs still churning, without blinking from his side of the couch across the way.
Well, then. We might as well get to the point. So are you going to use the triple-option offense at Tech as heavily as you did as the head coach at Navy for six years and at Georgia Southern for five years before that? If so, how will that affect recruiting, especially when it comes to acquiring quarterbacks and even a poor man’s version of Calvin Johnson at wide receiver?
Mostly, given the epidemic of empty seats at Bobby Dodd Stadium during most seasons (which contributed to Gailey’s ouster), will your offense that features a pass about every other presidential election attract folks or repel them?
Johnson answered each question, with legs still churning, and, yes, he will use the triple-option offense more often than not at Tech. And, no, he doesn’t think it will hinder recruiting — well, his type of recruiting that he said won’t exclude acquiring a future Calvin Johnson. And, yes, he understands that many around the Yellow Jacket Nation and beyond wonder if the triple-option offense is just another name for the boogeyman.
“They don’t understand it. What’s the first thing they think about when you say triple-option offense? Three yards and a cloud of dust,” Johnson said. “I know one year at Georgia Southern when I was there, Chattanooga led I-AA in passing. We had 25 plays of 20 yards or longer than they did, and we led the nation in rushing. I mean, you’ll see some 40-, 60-, 80-yard runs. That’s pretty exciting.
“Then, when we do throw, guys are petty wide open off of play action. At Navy, I know we were in the top 15 in passing efficiency [Actually, tied for 12th], which is the most important statistic. Not how many times you throw it.”
That’s Johnson’s story, and he’d better stick to it. His 8-4 Navy team led the nation in rushing this season, but it finished last in passing yards per game. In fact, the Midshipmen threw just an average of 10 times per game. Still, to keep Tech fans from rushing for No-Doz prior to games, Johnson suggested that Navy’s passing numbers deserve an asterisk.
There are size restrictions for those who enter the Naval Academy, which meant Johnson’s best offensive lineman was his center at 5 feet 9 and 275 pounds.
“I don’t want to be critical when I say this, because I love those kids, but there was a lot more factored in than what meets the eye as to why we did certain things,” Johnson said. “[Navy players] weren’t built for pass blocking. So it depends on the years and on the personnel. When we were at Hawaii [as offensive coordinator], it might have been 70 percent running and 30 percent passing, or even 60-40.”
The point is, said Johnson, Tech’s triple-option will evolve around the returning and incoming players that Johnson said he hasn’t had time to evaluate after barely two weeks on the job.
“I think that people have gotten too carried away with the triple-option, because that’s only one phase of the offense,” Johnson said. “If we have 75 plays, we’re not going to run 70 times. There’s a run-and-shoot package. There’s a play-action package. There’s different running plays besides the option. And, certainly, there are all kinds of options — counter option, speed option. We’ve got a sprint-out passing game. We’ve got draws. The key will be to come together with what our personnel here can do best.”
Remember, too, that Johnson’s triple-option has averaged nearly 450 yards per game to produce a 107-39 record during his time as a head coach. And here’s another thing: Hold the No-Doz.
“Everywhere I’ve coached, we’ve set attendance records,” Johnson said. “It’s an exciting offense. It’s fun to watch. You don’t know where the ball is all the time. It’s also pretty fast.”
Then Johnson eased into the biggest of smiles. That’s because his legs kept churning so much that he reached the end zone by saying, “You know what I’ve found? If you win, they like it.”
Permalink | Comments (34) | Categories: Terence Moore
An odd year for Atlanta GMs
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jeff Schultz
When Falcons owner Arthur Blank released a statement this week, confirming in a “by the way” manner that Rich McKay was out as the team’s general manager, it punctuated a peculiar year for Atlanta’s sports’ GMs.
McKay likely will leave — unless he believes finding a new stadium and filing paper clips will be stimulating work.
The Braves’ John Schuerholz slipped into unofficial semi-retirement as team president, resigning his GM duties to clear the way for assistant Frank Wren.
Six days after Schuerholz’s exit, the Thrashers’ Don Waddell fired coach Bob Hartley following a 0-6 start and went behind the bench. He is attempting not only to save the season, but also his paycheck.
Finally, there is the Hawks’ Billy Knight. In his first four seasons as GM, the team lost more than 70 percent of its games (231 of 328). On Wednesday, the Hawks defeated Miami in overtime, leaving them at 13-12 — over .500. This might be the strangest occurrence of all.
DATA
Rich McKay: 48. Born: Eugene, Ore. Sign: Pisces. Ruling planet: Neptune, which explains the drafting of Jimmy Williams.
John Schuerholz: 67. Born: Baltimore. Sign: Libra. Ruling planet: Venus, also named for the goddess of beauty, but unfortunately few recent closers, of late.
Don Waddell: 49. Born: Detroit. Sign: Leo. Ruling planet: The Sun, which we’ve been assured will come out tomorrow, though tomorrow remains undefined.
Billy Knight: 55. Born: Braddock, Pa. Sign: Gemini. Ruling planet: Mercury, who in Greek mythology was a fleet-footed messenger who could dart across the heavens but couldn’t play the point.
READING THE OUIJA
Rich McKay: Finding another GM’s job right now will be difficult, but he’ll have no trouble getting work with the league — somewhere south of Goodell.
John Schuerholz: He’ll oversee Wren with one eye and golf with the other. And he’ll take breaks with both eyes to gaze at Bud Selig’s soon-to-be-vacant office.
Don Waddell: After last year’s quick playoff exit, the Thrashers need a strong a showing to prove to ownership that Waddell has made the right decisions.
Billy Knight: Logic screams he should be gone if the Hawks’ don’t make the playoffs for the fifth time during his tenure. But owners could allow him to use coach Mike Woodson as the scapegoat.
OH, THE MEMORIES
Rich McKay: Immediately following his hiring in 2003, the 3-11 Falcons finished the season with wins over Tampa Bay (his former team) and Jacksonville, then reached the NFC title game the following season.
John Schuerholz: Took over before the 1991 season. The Braves won the first of 14 straight division titles, five pennants and one World Series.
Don Waddell: After six mostly miserable seasons, the Thrashers started last season 23-10-6 and then scrambled at the end to win the Southeast Division and make the playoffs.
Billy Knight: He didn’t shake Steve Belkin’s hand.
OY, THE MEMORIES
Rich McKay: Jimmy Williams, Michael Jenkins, Jason Webster, Ike Reese, Jim Mora, Ed Hartwell, Jordan Beck, Joe Horn, Roddy White, Ovie Mughelli, Bobby Petrino …
John Schuerholz: For all of those division flags, only one World Series. And, of course, Dan Kolb.
Don Waddell: One playoff berth. Zero playoff wins. Player development has been mediocre to average, particularly on defense.
Billy Knight: Chris Paul, Deron Williams, last, last, last, seventh (out of eight in the old Central).
BEST LAID PLANS
Rich McKay: With a Super Bowl win with Tampa Bay, an NFC title game appearance in his first year with the Falcons and his perceived strong ties to NFL powerbrokers, McKay figured to be a top candidate when commissioner Paul Tagliabue retired. But the job went to Roger Goodell. McKay didn’t even make it to the final cut of interviews.
John Schuerholz: As a sort of memoir about the Braves’ success during his watch, he authored, “Built To Win. Inside Stories and Leadership Strategies from Baseball’s Winningest GM.” The Braves missed the playoffs the next two years.
Don Waddell: The first player he signed for the franchise was goalie Damien Rhodes, who flopped. Asked years later if he attended Rhodes’ wedding, Waddell remarked, “No, but I paid for it.”
Billy Knight: Signed Speedy Claxton as a free agent last year to be his point guard. Revelation: He’s not Speedy Recovery. Claxton has yet to play this season and has missed 66 games (so far) with injuries.
CHALLENGE FOR REPLACEMENT/INCUMBENT
Rich McKay: (Your Name Here) Find a coach, turn over the roster, make the playoffs, split the atom, solve time travel.
John Schuerholz: Frank Wren doesn’t have to do much — just replace Andruw Jones and make the playoffs (which suddenly would be a significant step forward).
Don Waddell: Settle the mystery of Kari Lehtonen, build the blueline, win a playoff game.
Billy Knight: Find a point guard, a center, a coach and the third week of April.
Permalink | Comments (30) | Categories: Braves / MLB, Falcons / NFL, Hawks / NBA, Jeff Schultz, Thrashers / NHL
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