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Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Everyone has a favorite in the wide-open Derby
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Furman Bisher
The Kentucky Derby, I would say — and in this, I’m not alone — is the toughest sports event in the world to predict. You usually have 20 ways to get it right, or 20 ways to get it wrong. A full gate, and axioms to go along with every one.
The Derby coming up Saturday is no different; if anything, it looks tougher than most. But don’t they all. In the past 30 or so years, only one favorite has won it, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, who was owned by a Japanese businessman, accompanied in the winner’s circle by his own personal geisha court and trained by the quiet-natured Neil Drysdale.
The fact that Middleground, my choice, won the first Derby I covered in 1950 made it look easy, particularly considering it was the first horse race I ever covered. Ed Danforth of The Journal, a Kentuckian who knew horses, picked Your Host, and The Constitution editors embarrassingly spread their new sports editor’s triumph across the front page. It was six years before I had another Derby winner on the nose.
There are long-shot bettors with money on every horse going to the post Saturday, the dedicated plunger looking to make an exotic combination. The Horse Player magazine, devoted to the serious investor, brought eight racing experts together for a roundtable handicapping session. Now, these were as much devoted to making exotic wagers as to picking the winner. In the overall, three of them went for Street Sense, two picked Curlin and three other choices went to Hard Spun, No Biz Like ShoBiz and Circular Quay. These are not mint-julep consumers; these are hard-nosed hardboots, with reasons for and against them all.
Street Sense: Two-year champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. No Breeders’ Cup champion has ever won the Derby.
Curlin: Won the Arkansas Derby by a mile and a half, but he never raced as a 2-year-old, and no horse has won the Derby unraced as a 2-year-old since Apollo, when Chester A. Arthur was president. And what year was that? In 1882, which is a reach for any horseplayer.
Arkansas Derby winners do win Kentucky Derbies. Sunny’s Halo won in 1983, then came Smarty Jones, who followed up the Derby by winning the Preakness in 2004.
I sat at a meeting when a Texas writer confidently predicted Smarty Jones would win the Derby. During the week, a female acquaintance from Florida called and asked me to get a bet down for her — on Smarty Jones. What could she know about this horse? A lot. I forget the horse I picked, and don’t care to look it up, but my friend collected $175. That’s how it goes at the Derby.
Curlin’s race at Oaklawn was watered down considerably by the questionable quality of the field. Only one other graded winner went to the post, a field so weak that Curlin was bet down to 4-5. He cornered in the stretch with ease and widened his lead to 10-1/2 lengths. It was a rout by a horse that had won his first two starts in a romp.
There are horses in this field I know little or nothing about. Post positions won’t be drawn until this afternoon. So, I have to be impressed by guys who treat horse racing like a science. One, Gary West, the Texan, says this, “I think if there is a superstar to come out of this 3-year-old crop, Curlin is the only candidate. He’s the only one we might be talking about down the road.”
You must consider that West covers Southwest racing, and the Oaklawn beat, so there might be a bit of “homerism” there. Chances are Curlin will go off the favorite Saturday, but what else is there in the field to arouse such interest? In the meantime, I’m concentrating on the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies’ Derby, on Friday afternoon. Dogwood Stable’s Cotton Blossom will likely go off second choice in that one, and that’s Cot Campbell’s best bet to visit the pagoda at Churchill Downs this weekend. Unaccompanied, I might add, by any court of geishas. Hard to find in Camden, S.C.
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The Tuesday Countdown
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jeff Schultz
10: May Day. It’s not even mini-camp yet and the Falcons’ defensive already has lost two starters (Demorrio Williams and Rod Coleman) and could be ready to chuck another (Grady Jackson). So much for that post-draft afterglow.
9: Coleman got off the road, which made the world a better place. But he ripped a quad while jetskiiing. That’s sort of a big injury for a defensive tackle. Even if he comes back during the season, he won’t really be back. He’s toast. So is Williams. His torn pecs will prevent him from lifting weights and, even after healing, prevent him from immediately using his arm in tackles and pass-rush situations.
8: So how do you feel about now if you’re Keith Brooking? Poor guy just got moved back to middle linebacker, which he didn’t want in the first place. Now he’s lost his wingman (Williams) and possibly the slabs of beef in front of him. Is it too late to file retirement papers.
7: Rod Coleman’s backup: Jonathan Babineaux. Waiter, check?
6: The good news is that Michael Vick and the offense is stable. They can just outscore everybody. Say, have you seen my pet rabbit, Harvey?
5: Whether it’s fair or not, sports stars are defined by what they do in the post-season. Dirk Nowitzki may not want to read his definition about now.
4: Michael Gearon Jr., one of the Hawks’ owners, says the team might have won between “36 and 46 games” if not for injuries. Great. That should rally the troops.
3: More Hawks News! What does it mean that owners and Billy Knight will not determine coach Mike Woodson’s future until after the draft lottery? So if the Hawks get two really good picks, they fire Woodson because then they can lure a better coach? Look, you either think Woodson can coach or you don’t. Make a decision. This front office makes Charlie Brown look like a Type-A personality.
2: Tony LaRussa has been short with reporters and sensitive to reports about Josh Hancock drinking before he was killed in a car accident. But can LaRussa, who himself was arrested for DUI recently, be objective on this subject?
1: R. Kelly has written a song for Virginia Tech. I’m assuming it won’t rival, “Feelin’ on Yo Booty,” or have anything to do with having sex with a 14-year-old.
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