AJC > Sports > Columnists > Archives > 2007 > May > 01 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USEveryone has a favorite in the wide-open Derby
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Furman Bisher
The Kentucky Derby, I would say — and in this, I’m not alone — is the toughest sports event in the world to predict. You usually have 20 ways to get it right, or 20 ways to get it wrong. A full gate, and axioms to go along with every one.
The Derby coming up Saturday is no different; if anything, it looks tougher than most. But don’t they all. In the past 30 or so years, only one favorite has won it, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, who was owned by a Japanese businessman, accompanied in the winner’s circle by his own personal geisha court and trained by the quiet-natured Neil Drysdale.
The fact that Middleground, my choice, won the first Derby I covered in 1950 made it look easy, particularly considering it was the first horse race I ever covered. Ed Danforth of The Journal, a Kentuckian who knew horses, picked Your Host, and The Constitution editors embarrassingly spread their new sports editor’s triumph across the front page. It was six years before I had another Derby winner on the nose.
There are long-shot bettors with money on every horse going to the post Saturday, the dedicated plunger looking to make an exotic combination. The Horse Player magazine, devoted to the serious investor, brought eight racing experts together for a roundtable handicapping session. Now, these were as much devoted to making exotic wagers as to picking the winner. In the overall, three of them went for Street Sense, two picked Curlin and three other choices went to Hard Spun, No Biz Like ShoBiz and Circular Quay. These are not mint-julep consumers; these are hard-nosed hardboots, with reasons for and against them all.
Street Sense: Two-year champion and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. No Breeders’ Cup champion has ever won the Derby.
Curlin: Won the Arkansas Derby by a mile and a half, but he never raced as a 2-year-old, and no horse has won the Derby unraced as a 2-year-old since Apollo, when Chester A. Arthur was president. And what year was that? In 1882, which is a reach for any horseplayer.
Arkansas Derby winners do win Kentucky Derbies. Sunny’s Halo won in 1983, then came Smarty Jones, who followed up the Derby by winning the Preakness in 2004.
I sat at a meeting when a Texas writer confidently predicted Smarty Jones would win the Derby. During the week, a female acquaintance from Florida called and asked me to get a bet down for her — on Smarty Jones. What could she know about this horse? A lot. I forget the horse I picked, and don’t care to look it up, but my friend collected $175. That’s how it goes at the Derby.
Curlin’s race at Oaklawn was watered down considerably by the questionable quality of the field. Only one other graded winner went to the post, a field so weak that Curlin was bet down to 4-5. He cornered in the stretch with ease and widened his lead to 10-1/2 lengths. It was a rout by a horse that had won his first two starts in a romp.
There are horses in this field I know little or nothing about. Post positions won’t be drawn until this afternoon. So, I have to be impressed by guys who treat horse racing like a science. One, Gary West, the Texan, says this, “I think if there is a superstar to come out of this 3-year-old crop, Curlin is the only candidate. He’s the only one we might be talking about down the road.”
You must consider that West covers Southwest racing, and the Oaklawn beat, so there might be a bit of “homerism” there. Chances are Curlin will go off the favorite Saturday, but what else is there in the field to arouse such interest? In the meantime, I’m concentrating on the Kentucky Oaks, the fillies’ Derby, on Friday afternoon. Dogwood Stable’s Cotton Blossom will likely go off second choice in that one, and that’s Cot Campbell’s best bet to visit the pagoda at Churchill Downs this weekend. Unaccompanied, I might add, by any court of geishas. Hard to find in Camden, S.C.
Permalink | Comments (8) | Post your comment | Categories: Furman Bisher
Comments
By charlifaye
May 1, 2007 9:14 PM | Link to this
This is the first year in a long time that I DON’T have a favorite…every horse I could make an argument for, I end up making a stronger argument against…
And if Street Sense or Curlin get the 20th post? Hard to overcome that, no matter how good you are.
My plan? Look at the top 5 winning post positions and pick the horse with the highest Beyer.
That, or playing my kids’ birthday - the 12 horse - whoever it may be :-)
By dumbing down
May 1, 2007 9:16 PM | Link to this
It is evident the horse racing game has left Bisher in the dust. He needs to stick to his Golf, Football and Baseball (Birdhunting as well?). Leave the horse racing to the experts like he states. Blah blah blah… not one word of the “Derby Curve Ball”: Pre- Race POLYTRACK figures! ZZZZZs. PLease AJC, get a REAL horseplayer-writer!
By Gumbo
May 1, 2007 10:48 PM | Link to this
Hey Dumbo,
He’s a general columnist - not a handicapper. And if you are in love with the Polytrack Figs for WOs or live races, you aren’t a handicapper either. Show me surface biases (not Turf to Dirt, but different types of “Dirt”) that hold up for more than 1 race, and I’ll call you a genius.
Be happy that the sport is getting some PUB in a fishwrap that generally ignores it completely.
It’s all about “post and pace” in the Derby, my friend.
By Drexel Gal
May 2, 2007 4:35 AM | Link to this
My pick is STORMELLO.
Remember, in 2005, I chose GIACOMO, and many of you flooded my e-mail inbox with terrible messages and threats [how BRAVE!].
So, remember that I am choosing STORMELLO in 2007!
By dumbing down
May 2, 2007 7:49 AM | Link to this
Hey Dumbo-gumbo,
Polytrack is just another change in the game… nothing more. Bisher probably never heard of it. As for “post and pace” in the Derby… ever heard of the concept “trip” in a 20 horse field? All of the Georgia Crackers need to stick to their NASCAR, SEC Football, Braves and Golf. But during Derby Day, please throw your money on your favorite number, color, or name of horse! I just love the odds on Derby Day (Oaks as well!). Thank you Georgians!
By Robert Wright
May 2, 2007 10:36 AM | Link to this
Immediately after the winner is declared, most of us can all make up a what-if scenario; make that two scenarios(got to have an exclusive misrepresentation for the old lady).
Good luck
By tom willow
May 2, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this
When in doubt, look for a horse in trouble. Great Hunter had this misfortune his last two outings. Stick him on the outside and watch him run. Street Sense makes no sense. He’ll be the favorite. Regarding expert handicappers, they are like stock brokers. If is so easy why aren’t they retired?
By Roswell Ed
May 2, 2007 2:15 PM | Link to this
I’ll take the horse that takes a leak on the way to the gate!!