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Thursday, September 14, 2006
Weekend predictions: Falcons won’t need Abraham
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jeff Schultz
Kremlin — For anybody who might have missed it, Falcons coach Jim Paramoira disclosed again Thursday that John Abraham is questionable for this week’s big game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is to assume there is a game, or a team, or a league, or intelligent life on Earth, none of which the team would confirm.
The Falcons insist they are not trying to mess with the mind of Bucs coach Jon Gruden or circumventing NFL disclosure policies. Because really, in the big picture, who isn’t questionable?
“Since practice was closed today, I’ll tell you that Elvis looked really good at left tackle,” Paramoira said. “Thanks for coming out. Would you like a cookie? A neighbor gave them to me but I suspect they’re filled with tiny computer microchips. I’m not going to fall for that one again. Why are you looking at me like that? SECURITY!”
Just a guess here. (But I guessed 11 times against the line last week and got it right 10 times. You may bow now.) It won’t matter if Abraham is napping on Neptune on Sunday.
The Falcons are better against the run than a year ago, when they were just north of comatose and Carnell Williams ran for 266 yards and two touchdowns in two games.
The Bucs’ only other option is quarterback Chris Simms, whose totals against Baltimore included three interceptions, two sacks and zero scoring drives. Also, his father disowned him.
Straight from the source: Falcons win. But 5 1/2 is a bit rich. No cover.
Indentured students UAB at Georgia: Interesting confluence of events. Three Bulldogs return from suspension and Mark Richt was honored by making the cover of the Wheaties box. Specially marked boxes include a miniature defense attorney. (Hey, it’s T-ball.) Bowsers cover 17.
Troy at Tech: You know a coach (Chan Gailey) is well-traveled when he faces former employers two weeks in a row (Samford, Troy). Sorry, this is it. Air Force and Birmingham Fire survivors didn’t make the schedule. Bees win, but take Troy and 17.
Cat Fight: LSU beat Auburn in overtime last year because the Tigers’ John Vaughn missed five field goals. Of course, LSU is upset because that’s all anybody will talk about. I love when teams play the no-respect card. Not really. Auburn covers a field goal (oops).
Reality at Tennessee: Received some smack e-mail after Coach Pumpkinhead’s win over Cal. Guess Vowel fans have learned to get the bragging out of the way before the Florida game. Take cover and punt 3 1/2. Gators, Gators, Gators.
Miami at Louisville: I hate stats, but Miami has won seven of its past nine against ranked teams on the road. (Research? Hey, it happens.) Take Windbags and 5 — and in a straight upset.
N.C. State at Southern Ms.: Chuck Amato loses and complains that Akron lets in “non-qualifiers.” I don’t know what the big deal is. N.C. State lets non-qualifiers onto its coaching staff. (But take State and the 2 1/2.)
Clemson at FSU: The Seminoles needed two touchdowns in the last six minutes to beat Troy. Remember in the Stone Age when the JV could have scored two touchdowns in any six minutes? FSU wins, but take Clemson and 4 1/2.
Pros and Ex-cons Giants at Eagles: Philly is the best team in the East Division. I’m not sure the Giants are even the best team in East Rutherford. Philly covers 3.
Saints at Packers: Koren Robinson was arrested on DUI charges after a high-speed police chase, pretty much obliterating terms of his probation. Then he signed with Green Bay and was praised as a high-character guy by GM Ted Thompson. Jackie Sherrill is suing for copyright infringement. Saints cover 2.
Redskins at Cowboys: Dan Snyder’s decision to underwrite Tom Cruise’s films is not all about their friendship. It turns out that Baby Suri moves better than Mark Brunell. Joe Gibbs — Daytona is calling you. Dallas covers 6.
Raiders at Ravens: Randy Moss complains that Art Shell is too tough. Jerry Porter laughs during a loss. The NFL Network just found its first reality show. Ravens win but won’t cover 11 1/2.
Last week: 10-1 straight up, 10-1 against the line.
Season grossout: 15-3 straight up, 13-5 against the line.
Permalink | Comments (43) | Categories: Falcons / NFL, Jeff Schultz, Tech / ACC, UGA / SEC
Falcons too deep to falter
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mark Bradley
Everyone got excited when the Falcons opened the 2005 season by beating a team that had just played in the Super Bowl. Everyone is excited now because the Falcons have begun the new season by beating a team that was supposed to play in the Super Bowl. Last season, as we know, didn’t pan out. This one will.
This 1-0 is different from last year’s 1-0 in that these Falcons are built to last. This 1-0 is different in that last season’s seemingly epic victory came in the Dome against a Philadelphia team that was — even though we didn’t know it at the time — primed to implode. This 1-0 wasn’t the function of a frothing Monday night home crowd and a team amped to the ozone. This 1-0 came on the road and was a cold-blooded demonstration of power and precision. It’s easy to imagine this team replicating that clinical effort in November, and in January. This is the NFL, where emotion fades but talent endures.
And that’s the chief difference between last year’s 1-0 and this one. The Falcons’ biggest acquisitions from the winter/spring of 2005 — Ed Hartwell, Ike Reese, Roddy White — had negligible impact on the 2005 season. The acquisitions of Offseason ‘06 already have cut a swath and will, with time, cut even wider. Ashley Lelie hasn’t done anything yet, but he will soon. Jerious Norwood will rush for as many yards in spot duty as T.J. Duckett ever did. This defense will get better the longer it works together, as opposed to last season’s, which got only worse.
The Falcons went to school on last season, which saw them go from 1-0 to 6-2 to 8-8. “You learn more about yourself when you’re losing,” says Rich McKay, the president and general manager. “It’s harder to be intellectually honest when you’re winning. There’s a tendency to say, ‘We’ve done pretty well with this deck of cards — let’s not shuffle the deck.’ “
The 2004 Falcons had gone 11-5 and played in the NFC championship game, so the belief heading into 2005 was that continuity mattered above all. That feeling was dashed when Brady Smith kept getting hurt and the Falcons were left with two rookies — Chauncey Davis, who’d been a linebacker until his senior year in college, and Jonathan Babineaux, who’d started his collegiate career as a fullback — to play right defensive end. Neither was quite ready, and the effect rippled across the entire defense.
Patrick Kerney, the other end, wasn’t as effective because opponents could double-team him more. The up-front run defense wasn’t as stout, leaving the soft safeties exposed. By November, every opposing back was gashing the Falcons, and the front office decided then and there such a thing wouldn’t happen again.
And it won’t. Even if John Abraham, the imported right end whom the Panthers conspicuously couldn’t block, doesn’t play against Tampa Bay on Sunday, there’s cover available. “Chauncey Davis has been trained in the system now,” McKay said. “And we’ve added [in the ample form of Grady Jackson] to the interior of the line, and that will help us stop the run.”
Things will go wrong, sure. This being the NFL, things always do. But the Falcons’ inspired infusion of talent should enable them to ride out the jolts. Barring a season-ending injury to Michael Vick, nothing should keep these guys from the playoffs. It’s always nice to be 1-0, but it’s nicer still to know that you’re too skilled and too deep to fade when the leaves begin to fall.
Permalink | Comments (83) | Categories: Falcons / NFL, Mark Bradley
Andruw’s trade value dropping
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mark Bradley
The run of 14 division titles officially ended early Wednesday morning. Any shred of wild-card hope died Wednesday night. And there’s something else about the Braves that is dwindling as we speak:
Andruw Jones’ trade value.
After a breakout season in 2005, he’s back to being pretty much the same guy he always was — he plays a great center field and he hits for power but not for average. And yes, that’s good enough to make him an All-Star, but it isn’t quite enough to make him one of the five best players in the majors.
And if he’s not one of the five best players in the majors and he’s probably going to walk at the end of the 2007 season as a free agent, the Braves would be well advised to trade him for starting pitching over the winter.
Thing is, if you’re a team looking to shore up your outfield — the White Sox, say — do you note Jones’ sorry second half and say, “We can get somebody 75 percent as good at half the price”?
There are only two ways to get really good in neo-baseball: You can spend big the way the Yankees do, or you can find yourself some young starting pitchers, the way the Twins and the Marlins keep doing. The Braves, whose great run of 14 began with starting pitching and ended due to the lack thereof, need to find some young arms. Trading Jones seemed the best immediate vehicle, and maybe it still does. But it might help the long-term development of this franchise if the center fielder went on a tear these next 2 1/2 weeks.
Permalink | Comments (29) | Categories: Mark Bradley, Quick Hit
