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DEL.ICIO.USThe playoffs we’ll never know
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mark Bradley
We’ll never know what would have happened, but speculating is fun (and irresistible). The Thrashers missed the playoffs by two points. What if they’d gotten in?
The easy answer is to say that they’d have lost in Round 1 because form held in the East: All the higher seeds won their first-round series. But wait a minute. The No. 1 seed, Ottawa, trails Buffalo 3-0 in Round 2, and the Thrashers would have played the Senators in Round 1 had they made it. And the Senators seemed vulnerable because their No. 1 goalie, the famous Dominik Hasek, hadn’t — and still hasn’t — logged a minute since the Olympics. Could the Thrashers, who score in bunches, have seized on Hasek’s absence?
Maybe. But there’s no guarantee the Thrashers would have had Kari Lehtonen in Round 1, either. He hurt his ankle with 12 days to go in the regular season, and his absence was rudely felt in that crushing 6-4 loss in Washington on the season’s penultimate night. (The Thrashers used two goalies that night and still couldn’t hold a 4-3 lead in the third period.) Without a healthy Lehtonen, the Thrashers couldn’t have beaten a better team in a best-of-seven.
And it’s worth noting that Buffalo, the team that’s about to eliminate Ottawa, is the kind of club the Thrashers aren’t. The Thrashers waste a lot of offensive chances because they know they’ll get more. The Sabres bear down on every chance because they know they aren’t hugely talented. (They scored seven goals in Game 1 against Ottawa on only 23 shots.) The Thrashers were talented enough to put themselves on the cusp of the postseason, but I’m not sure they’re tough-minded enough to have lasted long in the crucible of playoff fire.
But wait another minute. This is hockey, and in playoff hockey nobody knows anything. Out West, all four of the higher seeds lost in Round 1, and the best-looking team at the moment is Anaheim, which benched its starting goalie — Jean-Sebastien Giguere, hero of the 2003 playoffs — in the Calgary series and has found another clutch performer in backup Ilya Bryzgalov.
Hockey being the quirkiest of sports, one bounce can change a series. Alas, we’ll never know if that bounce would have gone for or against the Thrashers.
Permalink | Comments (23) | Categories: Mark Bradley, Quick Hit
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By Chris
May 11, 2006 12:15 PM | Link to this
As much fun as playoff hockey here would have been, it wouldn’t have been very successful. Though the addition of McCarthy and Sutton’s emergence as a pseudo-force at the end of the season helped the D group, they would have been overwhelmed against the Sens attack.
It seems that solid defensive teams with opportunistic two-way forwards are best build for the playoff grind. And that wasn’t the ‘05-‘06 Thrashers.
Still a successful season, a winning record and just 2 points out of the playoffs. Looking forward to a playoff run next season.
By Really Po'd
May 11, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this
Hey Mark…really easy to trash a Buffalo team, huh? Maybe you’re still upset about all of the cheering you hear for the Sabres when you watch you’re precious Thrashers play at Phillips. In any account, the Sabres are a hugely talented team, a team with ferocity, a team with speed. They also have some of the quickest puck handling the league has ever seen. The Buffalo Sabres are hockey, the Thrashers are just an excuse to have Phillip’s arena open opposite the Hawks (which are just as sorry).
By Tim
May 11, 2006 01:34 PM | Link to this
The Sabres finished the season with 110 pts, 52 wins and the fifth best record in the NHL.Three points behind Ottawa.
The Thrashers finished with 90 points 41 wins and the 18th best record in the NHL.
Who are you calling “aren’t hugely talented”
It is clear that the Sabres are the most well balanced team in the NHL and have proven that they are part of the NHL elite.
By The Dominator
May 11, 2006 02:12 PM | Link to this
I wish I weren’t such a drunk’n slob of a washed up piece of meat so that I could still play for the Sabres. Too bad I’ve still gotta hang around John Muckler and fake an injury and respond to sports articles as moronic as this one. Eat it Mark. Sabes in four!!!
By The Dominator
May 11, 2006 02:12 PM | Link to this
I wish I weren’t such a drunk’n slob of a washed up piece of meat so that I could still play for the Sabres. Too bad I’ve still gotta hang around John Muckler and fake an injury and respond to sports articles as moronic as this one. Eat it Mark. Sabes in four!!!
By The Dominator
May 11, 2006 02:20 PM | Link to this
Wait. Did I just say that twice? I just can’t do anything right.
By Michael Vick
May 11, 2006 02:27 PM | Link to this
What’s hockey?
By Unsatisfied Customer
May 11, 2006 02:31 PM | Link to this
Bradley must be dating the manager @ Taco Mac in the Highlands…
By Chris
May 11, 2006 03:12 PM | Link to this
Good work Mark, you touched a nerve with the Buffalo crowd w/o even trying. The true mark of a good blogger.
By The Dominator
May 11, 2006 03:43 PM | Link to this
“good blogger”…that’s funny…
By fartballspooface
May 11, 2006 04:16 PM | Link to this
i heard chris likes to eat mark’s poop.
By jason
May 11, 2006 04:17 PM | Link to this
You’ll notice actual Thrasher fans don’t give a flip about Bradley’s rantings….
By Brendan
May 11, 2006 05:17 PM | Link to this
I agree with Mark that it’s fun to speculate. But without Lehtonen, and serious deficiencies on defense, I don’t think it would have been enough to oust Ottawa. Even with Emery in net. But, like Mark said, hockey is the quirkiest of sports. What I think he meant was … it’s a very unpredictable sport. Add in another factor. What? Dany Heatley is the pot of honey that brings out all the Atlanta bees.
The level of hockey awareness in this town would have surely increased with Ottawa as a 1st round opponent. I’d like to throw another wrinkle into the equasion. Ready?
In the final games of the season, Tampa went 1-1-1, just like Atlanta needed them to, and Montreal went 0-2-0, just like Atlanta needed them to. Assuming for the moment that Atlanta had won against Washington, lead 4-3 after two periods, and won the overtime vs. Florida, Atlatna would have finished with 93-points, good enough for 7th-place. Therefore, our first round opponent would have been Carolina. (The Bolts would have been eliminated, with 92-points, Montreal would have had 93-points, but been seeded last due to fewer wins than Atlanta.)
How did Carolina start out the playoffs? Answer: With two straight home losses. Could Atlanta have done as well as Montreal did early on? Answer: Uncertain, but I think the answer is “yes.” I suspect that the Thrashers could have pushed the Hurricanes, who were playing badly down the stretch in its games with the Caps and Bolts, and Panthers, to seven games.
With some luck, Mark Bradley, Atlanta would have been in the 2nd round. Then, they’d get Ottawa. And it’s probably “lights out” at that point. Why? The answer is simple. Atlanta is a club that does not have “balance.” It’s a talented team, with lost of NHL “tenure,” but it does not have balance. Said another way, the Thrashers would need to be the beneficiary of blessings of the so-called “hockey Gods.”
Hey, it’s not impossible. If Lehtonen returned, and the town was all “fired up” over a 1st-round win, then the “Heatley HATE factor” kicked in, you never know.
Who would be there in the Conference Finals? New Jersey? Buffalo? If it’s Buffalo, I had to think the Sabres win. They’ve got youth, speed, balance, a great Coach, etc. The aging Thrashers would be incapable of winning more than two games. And it’d be a hugely successful season for the 7th-seeded Thrashers to bow out in six games in the Conference Finals, in their NHL playoff “debut.”
If they drew New Jersey, it’d probably be over in five or six games. Although, it’s curious to think about it, since Atlanta won ALL FOUR GAMES with the Devils during the regular season. But, NJ didn’t have Elias in the lineup but for one game against Atlanta. Or maybe, not at all.
In case anyone’s curious, the last time the NHL playoffs saw this many lower seeded team advance, it was 1993. In those playoffs, nine (9) of the fifteen (15) playoff series were won by the lower-seeded team. That’s 60-percent. Currently, the NHL has seen 50-percent of the series won by the lower seeds. If Buffalo holds on, and New Jersey rallies to win the next four, or the Aves rallied for four straight, or Edmonton prevailed over San Jose, then it’d stay at 50-percent, with six series out of twelve being won by a lower-seeded team.
By Brendan
May 11, 2006 05:20 PM | Link to this
I agree with Mark that it’s fun to speculate. But without Lehtonen, and serious deficiencies on defense, I don’t think it would have been enough to oust Ottawa. Even with Emery in net. But, like Mark said, hockey is the quirkiest of sports. What I think he meant was … it’s a very unpredictable sport. Add in another factor. What? Dany Heatley is the pot of honey that brings out all the Atlanta bees.
The level of hockey awareness in this town would have surely increased with Ottawa as a 1st round opponent. I’d like to throw another wrinkle into the equasion. Ready?
In the final games of the season, Tampa went 1-1-1, just like Atlanta needed them to, and Montreal went 0-2-0, just like Atlanta needed them to. Assuming for the moment that Atlanta had won against Washington, lead 4-3 after two periods, and won the overtime vs. Florida, Atlatna would have finished with 93-points, good enough for 7th-place. Therefore, our first round opponent would have been Carolina. (The Bolts would have been eliminated, with 92-points, Montreal would have had 93-points, but been seeded last due to fewer wins than Atlanta.)
How did Carolina start out the playoffs? Answer: With two straight home losses. Could Atlanta have done as well as Montreal did early on? Answer: Uncertain, but I think the answer is “yes.” I suspect that the Thrashers could have pushed the Hurricanes, who were playing badly down the stretch in its games with the Caps and Bolts, and Panthers, to seven games.
With some luck, Mark Bradley, Atlanta would have been in the 2nd round. Then, they’d get Ottawa. And it’s probably “lights out” at that point. Why? The answer is simple. Atlanta is a club that does not have “balance.” It’s a talented team, with lost of NHL “tenure,” but it does not have balance. Said another way, the Thrashers would need to be the beneficiary of blessings of the so-called “hockey Gods.”
Hey, it’s not impossible. If Lehtonen returned, and the town was all “fired up” over a 1st-round win, then the “Heatley HATE factor” kicked in, you never know.
Who would be there in the Conference Finals? New Jersey? Buffalo? If it’s Buffalo, I had to think the Sabres win. They’ve got youth, speed, balance, a great Coach, etc. The aging Thrashers would be incapable of winning more than two games. And it’d be a hugely successful season for the 7th-seeded Thrashers to bow out in six games in the Conference Finals, in their NHL playoff “debut.”
If they drew New Jersey, it’d probably be over in five or six games. Although, it’s curious to think about it, since Atlanta won ALL FOUR GAMES with the Devils during the regular season. But, NJ didn’t have Elias in the lineup but for one game against Atlanta. Or maybe, not at all.
In case anyone’s curious, the last time the NHL playoffs saw this many lower seeded team advance, it was 1993. In those playoffs, nine (9) of the fifteen (15) playoff series were won by the lower-seeded team. That’s 60-percent. Currently, the NHL has seen 50-percent of the series won by the lower seeds. If Buffalo holds on, and New Jersey rallies to win the next four, or the Aves rallied for four straight, or Edmonton prevailed over San Jose, then it’d stay at 50-percent, with six series out of twelve being won by a lower-seeded team.
By Brendan
May 11, 2006 05:39 PM | Link to this
I’m sorry. It posted twice. Why does it do that sometimes? Anywho …
One last thought. The Thrashers, post “lockout era,” were built to win it all NOW. As a result, it’s one of the oldest, but talent-laden rosters in the league, and is paid accordingly. The youthful stars on this team are Slater, Kovy, Lehtonen, and Hossa. Throw in Exelby, if ya want. Patrik Stefan could still be considered “young.” Marc Savard is almost certainly lost to free agency. But he, like Hossa, is 28.
So???
So, Atlanta’s roster is pricey and some difficult decisions need to be made, if the team is the remain competitive, as it ages. Tough decisions on Lehtonen’s contract have to be made. How many years does he get? At what price?
Can Savard be low-balled into remaining? If so, how many years? What about McCarthy? His contract is up this summer, too. If he is lost to free agency, Atlanta gets compensation, as Steve is a restricted free agent. Bondra and Kozlov are great. Especially for their salaries and what their performance brings. But if anyone is going to look beyond the “go for broke mentality” that will surely be the focus of next season, then Bondra and Kozlov are prime candidates to be moved in an attempt to get younger and faster. No???
Bondra is an unrestricted free agent. He could be gone. OR Don could do a “sign-n-trade.” Same with Kozlov. Nic Havelid is an unrestricted free agent, who may be gone next year.
It’s time to start reevaluating. Where do you see this team in three years? Finally free of the shackles of the Holik and Hossa behemoth contracts? At a point where trading Kovalchuk is the last “best option” to find the balance the team never had? (Shudder. But it’s a possible future.)
Folks, this 2005-06 team was built to win the Stanley Cup this year. With the 2006-07 season as a “safety net” if this season failed to produce a championship. We had a lot of bad luck this year. But also never had “balance.” What we had was a fantastically “front-loaded” two forward lines, two defenseman (Havelid and DeVries), (three if you count Exelby,) and two goalies (Lehtonen and Dunham).
So?? So, what about the 3rd and 4th lines? About about the three to four other blueliners? What about the goaltending situation next year? Dunham will be lost to free agency, more than likely. Garnett is a likely replacement. If Garnett is the future, then great! He doesn’t cost a lot. What if Lehtonen misses 30-games due to recurring groin troubles? How “big” and “how long” was his contract that Don will give him this summer?
Or are you already thinking about trading Lehtonen? Stop. Before you call that move utterly crazy and irresponsible, how many games has Lehtonen actually played since he was drafted in 2002? He played four in 2004. And he played about 30-something this year. He missed 42-games due to injury.
While I think it is too soon to think about trading Lehtonen, what if his NHL-career never really takes off? It’s just riddled with injury after injury? Wouldn’t it have been better to bring three “contributing” players to the roster in a trade?
Just something to think about as Atlanta heads into this Summer’s Draft.
By Ryan
May 11, 2006 05:52 PM | Link to this
I really am haveing a hard time with all this talk about how the Sabres are nothing within the media. Have we not seen how great this team is? Buffalo is successful for two reasons. 1. Young talent on several lines mixed with a COUPLE OF VETS. 2. The city of Buffalo is behind them 100%. How many Thrashers’ games were actually sold out this season. Buffalo….damn near all of them. The Thrashers were built for the power play. Buffalo was built for the “new” NHL. 4 lines that can score and contribute any game. The Sabres are for real. But I think it has worked to their advantage being the underdog. I just don’t think that many hockey fans would be happy with a Sabres cup win because they are considered a small market……..lol.
Lets go Buffalo! ITS televised tonight.
By Brendan
May 11, 2006 10:38 PM | Link to this
Anywho who cannot see how good this Sabres team really is needs glasses. “Denial” is not just a place in Egypt. This team had 110-points and 52 wins!! It’s an 82 game season. The Sabres were among the leaders in PP and PK and had a fantastic road record. The GF and GA were “respectable.”
This is a prototypical “new NHL-type franchise.” They’re young, fast, hungry and underpaid. All good combinations in the “age of parity” in the “era of salary cap.”
Hey, this is EXACTLY what the cap was supposed to do. Raleigh, Buffalo, San Jose, and Edmonton now no longer exist, exclusively, for the purposes of giving larger market teams someone to play and DEFEAT during the regular season.
The counter-argument is … what does this do for TV-ratings?? What if Buffalo does play San Jose for the Cup? Will there be 120 viewers inside the United States, outside of the markets of San Jose and Buffalo??
By Red Light
May 12, 2006 07:59 AM | Link to this
“speculating is fun (and irresistible)” especially for writers that cover teams that typically are not involved in the playoffs. Why? Because they have nothing to write about.
Since December, Buffalo has been one of the most consistent teams in the NHL. What they lack in star power, they make up for in heart, hard work, playing their system and getting contributions from every one on the roster. Injuries didn’t sidetrack this team in the regular season when they were without Briere, Connolly, Hecht, Miller, and others for extended stretches of time, and they haven’t caught up to them in the postseason either.
By Brendan
May 12, 2006 11:58 AM | Link to this
Another excellent post, Red Light. Buffalo’s injuries have not been an excuse this season. They’ve still got a heckuva series to go with Ottawa. Buffalo had a good 2nd period, and a good rush at the end, but this Game Four was the worst of Buffalo’s efforts since the Flyers series.
No one really should be looking ahead, as each game should be played like it’s game seven. But, that said, can you imagine the “panic” that could start if Ottawa wins Game 5? That puts Buffalo in a very uncomfortable place for Game Six. It almost becomes a “must win” situation back in Buffalo.
Plus, it’s important to teams, any and ALL teams, to wrap up the next game once it has won the third game of a series. “Prolonging” a series can lead to the eventual downfall of a team.
The playoffs are a marathon. Why run unnecessary miles?? Buffalo needs to bring its “A” game to Ottawa, and end it right then and there. I know what you’re gonna say. And you’re right to say it. In this series, ALL of the games could have gone either way. Buffalo won two in overtime, and Game Two by one goal. This series has been played with the teams being tied, or having a one-goal lead, for like 95-percent of the minutes played.
Ottawa unfortunately finds itself on the short end of the 3-1 series score. Buffalo must bury them sooner, rather than later. Hey, I admit it. I took Ottawa in seven games. I hope I’m wrong. I hope Buffalo closes ‘em out in five.
By Brendan
May 12, 2006 12:03 PM | Link to this
RedLight, quick question for ya. Do you think the Thrashers will make the playoffs next year? Okay, that’s premature. We don’t even know what the roster looks like, and therefore, cannot make projections. Trades could happen. Players could be lost and acquired through free agency.
But we do know who’s under contract and who isn’t. That doesn’t mean the players under contract couldn’t be traded. But, let’s assume, for the moment, that they aren’t and play next season. Including, what the hey, the restricted free agents, like Lehtonen and McCarthy.
Red Light, based on the players under contract, do you think the Thrashers are headed to the playoffs next year?
By Red Light
May 12, 2006 12:49 PM | Link to this
With the current players under contract and knowing that the team still has cap restraints (I figured $9.9 million for nine additional players a few weeks back unless there is a big cap increase, which I don’t expect), I can’t “guarantee” it at this point, and here’s why…
• Forward lines are like doughnuts, good outside nothing in the center. Holik will be one year older.
• Need a quality back-up goalie
• Not willing to say defensive corps is quick enough on whole, or able enough to move the puck sufficiently without re-signing Havelid. Coburn may be called upon but there will be a learning curve with him.
• Hartley uses his “horses” far too much in my mind and needs to trust all four lines ala Buffalo, rather than overuse his top two lines and defensive pairings, and his No. 1 goalie.
• Injuries could sidetrack this team because there is little or no depth in Chicago to speak of.
• Division opponents will be improved. Florida and Washington probably gained as much from time on ice and experience this season. Young guys got a ton of ice time in both instances, particularly in Washington. Tampa could be in the worst shape of all SE division teams, particularly if they don’t add a top-flight goalie or re-sign Richards. I am one of the few that believes you have to take care of your division first before setting your sights on the conference.
• If Atlanta Spirit doesn’t resolve its Belkin issues, then the franchise could be hamstrung from future proactivity in terms of personnel, management, changes (that is my speculation not fact).
• Still not convinced that the scouting department on the amateur or pro level is on par with other franchises (only Mahovilich has played in the NHL).
• No full-time goalie coach (Weeks has too many other responsibilities he doesn’t handle well in my opinon).
• Waddell is still the GM
Sorry for the long winded response!
Cheers Brendan.
By Rutuger
May 12, 2006 12:58 PM | Link to this
The only thing I know about Buffalo is that
A) the people are really fat and unattractive, and
B) they just gave Peerless Pricetag a 4-year deal.
AAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAAAHHAHAHAHAAA!!
By dj
May 12, 2006 05:48 PM | Link to this
Here’s the deal: Resign Havelid, no brainer. Let Savard Go. Trade Modry for popcorn for all I care, dump that salary. Bring up Coburn. Check out the free agents. See if you can sing Richards or Redden. Sign them. Sign Kari. Screw the veteren backup. Kari is our horse and will have to be. Garnett can come in for a few games. With McCarthy,Havelid,De Vries, Sutton, Exelby,Coburn, and maybe a free agent (Redden) I think our D will be solid.
The key to this team is playing well defensively as a team. I say let savard go and see if we can get a better two way center. Maybe not as good offensively but can play better defense.