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Monday, May 8, 2006
Why are Braves panicking so soon?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mark Bradley
I’m seeing something I never thought I’d see from the Braves. I’m seeing desperation — in May, no less.
I’m seeing the organization that has made its reputation on playing from behind acting as if it can fall no farther behind. Indeed, John Smoltz said there’d have been no coming back had the Braves lost Sunday to drop 10 games behind. Since when did 10 games back after 31 games played become the threshold of elimination? Since when did a 10-game lead become insurmountable where a nine-game bulge apparently is not?
I’m seeing the Braves act as if they’re the team starved for a division title. On Sunday the Mets needed a starting pitcher and did as any right-thinking team would do on the Sunday after the Kentucky Derby — they summoned someone from the minors (the washed-up Jose Lima), hoped for the best and lived with the unsurprising loss. And the Braves?
They started a pitcher who’ll turn 39 next week on three days’ rest. Yeah, they won, and yeah, they’re eight games behind as opposed to the dreaded 10, but this was a case of risk trumping any possible reward. Smoltz has a long history of arm trouble and is on track to log 240 innings, more than in any season since 1997. Will the six innings he worked on May 7 show in August or September? If so, who starts on three days’ rest then?
The Braves, of all teams, should know better. Ten games back isn’t a breaking point: They trailed the Giants by 10 on July 22, 1993 — after 97 games, as opposed to 31 — and famously won the West. And that was the last year when winning a division was essential for postseason participation. There’s now this thing called the wild card. Since the Braves haven’t yet availed themselves of it, maybe they’re unaware it exists. If so, someone should advise them.
The Braves can still catch the Mets, but the desire to catch the Mets shouldn’t fog the bigger picture. You can win the World Series without winning your division. (Every Series winner from 2002 through 2004 did just that.) You cannot, however, win the World Series or even make a serious wild-card run if you kill your staff in the first six weeks. The day before Smoltz pitched on three days rest, the Braves activated Horacio Ramirez, who’d been scheduled to begin a rehab assignment in Class AAA. The night before Ramirez was summoned, Bobby Cox burned nine pitchers — the Mets used seven — in a 14-inning loss.
If the Braves go 77-54 from here on, they’ll finish with 90 wins. Ninety victories would have won the wild card last season. Such a pace (.588 over 131 games) would be easily doable with hale and hearty pitching, but the Braves are acting as if the charge must begin PDQ. Remind me again: Which team won the East by 10 games after being below .500 on July 4, 2004? Which team won the West after being below .500 and 9-1/2 games out of first at the 1991 All-Star break?
From Cox, heretofore the most patient manager I’ve ever known: “If you’re at .500 at the All-Star break, anything can happen.” As good as the Mets are today, there’s no guarantee they’ll look the same after 100 games. They’re already strapped for starting pitchers and Billy Wagner has blown more saves than Chris Reitsma and their schedule is about to toughen. The best way for the Braves to close ground is to stop worrying about the Mets and to let the six-month season take its course.
And that’s the thing: The Braves and Cox have always been experts at pacing themselves. They don’t overreact to a bad week or a bad month. At least they didn’t. Now I’m not so sure. If I’d had to bet on which team would have started a 38-year-old on three days rest on May 7, the Braves would have been my 30th choice.
The Braves used to be the ones reminding those of us on the periphery that a season lasts 162 games. Today they’re the ones who need reminding, they of all people.
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