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DEL.ICIO.USThrashers have come far, want to go farther
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jeff Schultz
It used to count for something that they made it this far. In past seasons, a winning record, a playoff race, a home sellout, all in late January — those franchises oddities would be embraced like a winning lottery ticket.
Instead, all the Thrashers could talk about Saturday was that they have lost two in a row.
“We can’t afford to have another extended losing streak,� team captain Scott Mellanby said. “There’s just not enough time to make up ground again.�
The Thrashers lost to Tampa Bay 2-0 Saturday at Philips Arena. It’s the first time they have lost consecutive games in regulation in over six weeks, a remarkable string for a club that once struggled to go six shifts without walking into a punch line.
The team didn’t play awful, it just didn’t play as well as the Lightning, which didn’t get into Atlanta until 2:30 a.m. but now is looking closer to the team that won the last Stanley Cup.
The problem is that the Thrashers spent six weeks digging themselves out of a hole in the Eastern Conference, and, while that’s impressive, they have left themselves little margin for error in the playoff race. Going 13-2-3 after a 10-16-3 start doesn’t get rid of a stain, it just covers it up for a while. The question now becomes: Can the Thrashers avoid the same crash-and-burn that incinerated playoff hopes two years ago, when they managed only two wins in 21 games after a 19-14-3-1 start?
“I don’t think there’s any question the playoff race is going to stay tight like this until the end,� Lightning general manager Jay Feaster said. “[Coach] Bob [Hartley] has done an incredible job getting the team through the goaltending woes. This young guy [Kari Lehtonen] the Thrashers have is special. He gives them a chance to win every night. I don’t see any chance they’ll collapse whatsoever.�
Yes, they’ve made it this far. The Thrashers are bunched in a playoff race despite losing their No. 1 goalie (Lehtonen) for 35 games, their No. 2 goalie (Mike Dunham) for 34 games, one of their expected top goal scorers (Peter Bondra) for 22 and counting, and one of their top leaders (Bobby Holik) for nine and counting.
OK. So now what?
As Feaster said, the chances of a sudden and extreme descent seem remote. This team has too much talent, leadership and (as we speak) a healthy and talented goalie.
But the Thrashers can expect more games like Saturday’s. Almost every game remaining will come against somebody they’re battling for a playoff berth. That means tight, close-checking games. That means you can’t afford to go scoreless on four power play chances while your opponent goes 2-for-5, as Tampa Bay did Saturday. The Lightning held the Thrashers to their second-lowest shot total (20) of the season, blocking several shots with sticks and assorted body parts.
“They played well defensively,� Mellanby said. “We knew what they were going to do. We knew they would forecheck with two guys and have their defense step up and jam us. We were prepared. We had a game plan to combat that. We just didn’t execute it.�
They lost a strange game in L.A., 8-6. They lost a defensive battle at home. The last time they dropped two in a row, it was the tail end of a five-game skid. Then they woke up.
“You look at the standings, and we did what we had to do just to get back into the picture,� Mellanby said. “But at the same time, just getting back in there, with the games in hand that a few teams have on us, isn’t enough. We got ourselves to this point, and we have to keep it up.�
The bottom isn’t falling out. But when a team starts worrying about a two-game losing steak, it illustrates a couple of things. Fortunes have improved. And expectations have not yet been met.
Permalink | Comments (12) | Categories: Jeff Schultz, Thrashers / NHL
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By Wreckin&Thrashin
January 22, 2006 01:43 AM | Link to this
I’ve been waiting for a day like this for 6 years. Atlanta is starting to become a hockey city. You can feel it. Despite the loss tonight, we’re in for helluva ride the next 3 months, and dang, its gonna be exciting. Even though I’ve been a hockey fan since I was 4, and a Thrashers fan since the franchise came into existence, I’m starting to become really emotionally attached to this team. I’m starting to get the same joy watching these guys play that I do when GT plays in any sport. And that is a special feeling. Here’s to hockey in Atlanta! Go Thrashers!
By Scott
January 22, 2006 03:17 AM | Link to this
Awesome column Jeff. You can’t blame the Thrashers for losing the game tonight, Tampa just got a couple of breaks and capitalized on them. Hats off to the Bolts they played a heck of a game. The Thrashers will make the playoffs we just play in one of the toughest divisions in the league and every game within the division is going to be a battle every night. Alot of teams will be looking to make a move at the trading deadline and the Thrashers will already have an impact player coming back even sooner than that when Peter Bondra is back and healthy. The guy can score and carry a team by himself for a game or two. He will fit in nicely on the same line as Kovalchuk and Savard.
By John
January 22, 2006 09:02 AM | Link to this
Watch everybody come and jump on the bandwagon now!
By Bob
January 22, 2006 09:34 AM | Link to this
It’s tough to take a loss like last night which happened because Tampa outworked our guys. Plain and simple, they wanted the game more than we did, and that’s tough to take.
Can’t have any more letdowns, they at least need to go down skating hard, if they’re going to lose.
By Matthew
January 22, 2006 01:17 PM | Link to this
Is it me, or is the team playing much better without Holik?
Holik has looked soft this year. He’s supposed to be a two-way center, but he looked lost on the ice and his defense has been really bad. He’s constantly in the wrong place at the wrong time, screening his own goalie, making bad passes.
Remember when we talked about Holik vs. Sykora in the offseason, Shultzie?
I’m thinking I was right. Sykora would have been a much better fit, especially in this new NHL. Holik is too slow, too old-school to survive in the new NHL.
It’s always a bad sign when the team is playing better without him than with him.
By Ryan
January 22, 2006 02:18 PM | Link to this
Great column Jeff, It going to be an interesting race to the playoffs. I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that this is new territory for the Thrashers Org. Each game, for the remainder of the season, is going to come down to which team wants it more. My concern is that the Thrashers will have difficulty in this situation. I feel that the team is going to need their Vets to really step up and keep this team focused. There is great talent on this team and the rest of the conference knows how dangerous this team is I only hope that the boys can show it in each game. Unfortunately the Thrash have played anywhere from 3-4 more games than the rest of the Conference so as of right now the Thrash are out of the 8th spot. The Thrash cannot afford to lose consecutive gamses when there are teams on 9-10 game streaks. The Thrash need to get better on the road and continue to play consistent to make a run. Kovy needs to relax and play for the team and not his stats he is trying to do too much and is creating alot of turnovers as of late.
The next few games are going to tell us alot of where this team is and is going. There is along way to go still, but the Thrash need to treat each game as urgent.
Matthew, I have noticed Holiks absence and Holik isn’t as horrible as you are stating. I think the real problem in the defensive zone is Sutton. There are more times than not that he is at the wrong place or is taking stupid penalties…these situations almost always result in goals against. I really feel that Holik was starting to become a presence on the ice for the Thrash. The team is going to need him in this rac for the playoffs..I think he will be a positive factor.
My other concern is that the Thrash have problems when guys come back into the lineup after being out so long. They don’t seem to play well. They cannot afford this when Bondra and Holik come back. I know it takes time to get things to feel normal on the ice but its do or die time.
A positive from last nights game is that I think the Thrahsers played one their best defensive games of the season-the two goals scored were funky ones and not a result of poor play. The Thrashers have what its going to take to get to the playoffs—I really think this team will make a strong finish.
Look for Hartley to keep this team level he knows what he is doing and has been there before.
Keep it up Thrash!
By Matthew
January 22, 2006 02:28 PM | Link to this
That’s just my impression of Holik.
And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team is playing better without him than with him. There are no such things as coincidences. Just cause and effect.
I still stand by my statement that this team would have been much better off going with Sykora instead of Holik.
By Brendan
January 22, 2006 05:41 PM | Link to this
I think it’s great that the Thrashers have entered playoff contention. 13-4-3 over their last 20-games is still quite good. That said, my greatest fear has always been that they’ll turn it around just enough to screw the draft positioning while still managing to miss the playoffs.
That is the “danger” that the Thrashers are facing. There is a way to negate the argument. Yeah, how? Moves on draft day.
Just because the Thrashers may wind up with the 14th overall selection doesn’t mean that that’s where they have to draft. Don Waddell took us from 8th to 16th overall in the 2005 draft. He may decide to go the other direction this year.
A few Thrashers fans thought the thing to do in the 2005 Draft was to move up rather than down, to go get Gilbert Brule or Benoit Pouliot.
The same thing could happen in 2006. I doubt anyone will pass on Phil Kassel, but whoever picks 2nd overall, maybe St. Louis, Chicago, Pittsburgh, or Columbus might agree to “swap picks” for the right deal. Washington and Florida are in that “high draft category,” but I doubt they’d trade with a divisional opponent unless it were really one-sided.
One theory I hear among fans in the stands could be packaging Kozlov or Holik, plus a 2nd round pick, maybe more, to move up in the draft. I think Holik’s inflated salary makes him hard to move. Almost every team is dealing with “cap issues.” But the concept is still good. Take a player who is still good, but no longer someone the team is building around, (Kozlov,) throw in a 2nd round pick, maybe a 5th or 6th, to go get a top future prospect.
Works for me. I like Kozlov. I’d rather have him than let him go, but he’d be the first one I’d sacrifice to team looking for immediate results in their starting roster.
For now, I’m sure the Thrashers organization is still thinking “Go for it! Make the playoffs!” Well, of course! Playoffs equals “Free profit” for the owners. That’s always their goal.
I’m sure that some fans will absolutely scream if the Thrashers miss the playoffs again, in YEAR SIX of the FIVE YEAR PLAN. But I think that’s short-sighted. It’s still more important to think to the future.
Everything now is about making good decisions for the future. If Atlanta makes the playoffs as the #8 seed, that’s great. But it might mean a quick exit against a Cup Contender like Ottawa or Philadelphia.
Statistically-speaking, no #8 seed has ever made it to the Stanley Cup Finals, much less won it. A couple of #7’s have gotten there. Vancouver in 1994. Buffalo in 1999. Anaheim in 2003. But, truly, that is the anomaly.
So, “in the big picture,” it’s still a bit more important to make intelligent moves at the trade deadline, in the Draft, and in the offseason free agent period, than it is to make the playoffs this season.
That’s my opinion, and I could certainly be wrong.
It’s wayyy too soon to be talking about all that, however. So, mea culpa for even having mentioned it. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Then I’m sure the “hey, let’s move Shields. No Dunham. No Holik. No Bondra. No Kozlov” speculation can begin.
If Atlanta can just finish between 4th and 6th this year, their chances for playoff success increase exponentially. Stranger things have happened. In 1998, the fourth-seeded Capitals faced the sixth-seeded Sabres for the Eastern Conference Championship. In 2003, the Western Conference Finals saw #6 Minnesota host #7 Anaheim.
By JB
January 22, 2006 05:55 PM | Link to this
Brendan..you are right…………anything can happen in the playoffs if you get there….a goaltender like Lehts can carry a team right to the SC finals. The Ducks latched on to Jean-Sebastien Giguere and rode him to the finals 03......the Sabres followed Hasek in99. Kevin Weekes got hot in `02 and the Canes almost stole the Cup from the Wings. Lets get there and ride Kari for as long as we can.
By Ryan
January 22, 2006 06:01 PM | Link to this
Matthew, thats the great thing about these forums..opinions are just that opinions. I see where you are coming from I was just offereing my own perspective, I as well still stand by my opinion that Sutton seems to be out of place more so than Holik. It is however, great to talk about hockey and voice opinions on the matter.
Brendan, It is good to look at the future as the Thrasher playoff picture is beginning to be grim. I would think that most fans would want to pass up on draft position to see the Thrash in the playoffs. The Thrash need a strong finish to get close. At least they are in the hunt…I think you are saying that in your own way. Unfortunately it is year six of the five year plan. And many fans will be greatly disappointed if the Thrash miss out again. One thing is for sure, the race to the end favors some great hockey showdowns. But you never know…The Sabres are struggling as of late and could be passed up by anyone within reach even the Thrash.
Interesting point on the number 8 seed never making it to the finals.
By Brendan
January 22, 2006 11:49 PM | Link to this
JB & Ryan, thank you for your posts. Both made me think, curiously enough, about the 1993 playoffs. It was one of my favorite years, as total “unpredictability” was the only rule.
How so? Well, in the 15 playoffs series, the lower seeded team won nine (9) of them.
In that way, not meaning to digress, it reminds me of this year’s NFL playoffs, where the Steelers have won three times on the road, Carolina won twice on the road, and the Redskins won at Tampa Bay.
Back to hockey, JB’s comments had me thinking about Patrick Roy and wondering if Lehtonen could pull something like that off. Of course, Roy won the Cup as a Rookie for Montreal in 1986. Earlier, in 1971, Ken Dryden won a Cup for the Habes before his rookie season in 1972. Dryden backstopped the Habs to another title in 1973. In 1993, the Canadiens, #3 seed in the Adams Division, rode Patrick Roy all the way to a Stanley Cup victory over the L.A. Kings.
That playoff year, 1993, had me thinking about Ryan’s comments about foregoing the Draft order in an effort to make a playoff push. Ryan’s comments had me thinking about his beloved Sabres of that season.
Rev. Whittaker may want to cover his ears at this point. (I’m heading somewhere with this, be patient.)
In 1993, there were only TWO (2) divisions in each conference, and the top four from each division made the playoffs. (Yes, it was possible for the 5th place team in one division to have more points than the 4th place team in the other, and miss the playoffs.)
That year, the Boston Bruins were in an absolute “dog fight” with the Quebec Nordiques (Colorado Avalanche today) and the Montreal Canadiens for the Adams (Northeast today) division title. The Bruins won that division (Rev. Whittaker cheers) that season.
Here’s the point I want to make and tie back to the Thrashers—and their postseason efforts.
The 1992-93 Boston Bruins were so EXHAUSTED from having fended off the Habs and Nordiques down the stretch of the season that they ran outta gas in the opening round of the playoffs, where they were swept by the Buffalo Sabres.
Now, I want to be clear about something. The 1992-93 Sabres made the playoffs because the Hartford Whalers (Carolina Hurricanes today) and expansion Ottawa Senators had “hopeless” seasons. Said another way, the Sabres “dogged it” all season, finishing just barely above .500.
The Point??? Well, the point is that the sometimes the fight down the stretch leaves the playoff-bound teams ill-prepared for the playoffs themselves.
In 1993, the Bruins shot their wad in winning their division. A 109-point was squandered to the Buffalo Sabres, who finished with 86-points, or 23-points behind them. In case you’re curious, Buffalo won three of those four games in overtime.
Did the Bruins’ fatigue play a factor?? The Sabres’ postseason presence was all but assured from the first two months of the season. There was no way the Whalers or expansion Senators were going to finish fourth (4th).
So, let’s say the Thrashers make it in, winning all the many and various tie-breaker criteria, and finish 7th or 8th. Unless those #1 and #2 seeds were seriously pushed to win their division, they might have even rested players down the stretch.
What’s gonna happen if a “multiple overtime” type game emerges? Will the Thrashers have any juice for those marathon games with Ottawa or Philadelphia? Or will they be worn out from chase just to make the playoffs?
Age and conditioning will play a major factor. I hope Atlanta makes it. I’d love to see some playoff hockey. But, I’m not gonna scream if they don’t make it, yet again. I’ll be more concerned about what “decisions” they make and the consequences that will surely follow them.
By JMar
January 23, 2006 01:27 AM | Link to this
Just to add to Brendan’s comment, ten of the final fourteen games are on the road, only adding to the probability of a late season collapse or exhaustion going into the playoffs. We’ve been hot as heck the last many weeks, and we’re still basically in the tenth spot in the conference and out of the playoffs. Even minor letdowns like last night will be huge.