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DEL.ICIO.USNo NCAA dance card for Jackets, and other hoops musings
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mark Bradley
With Selection Sunday just 51 days away, it’s time to get serious about this college basketball business. Pretty much everything you’ll need to know will be revealed in the next few paragraphs. And if I happen to get any of these true-false propositions wrong, I will of course take my lead from Paul Hewitt and blame it on the refs.
• 1. Duke will go undefeated.
False. The ACC is softer than usual, but it’s not so soft that the Devils are going to win ‘em all on the road. Their first loss should come either Feb. 7 at North Carolina or Feb. 11 at Maryland. But Duke won’t lose more than a couple of games, and it will win the national championship.
• 2. The 2006 Final Four will be a convocation of glamour boys.
True. The nation’s three best programs — Duke, Connecticut and Michigan State — will be represented in Indianapolis. The fourth qualifier will be the fastest-rising operation in the land — Ohio State.
• 3. Georgia Tech will make the field of 65.
False. The Jackets already have six losses, which is a lot, and their RPI is hovering near 100, which is low. They’ll need to win at least two ACC road games to have a realistic chance, and that will be a stretch given that their road record is 1-5.
• 4. The most stunning halftime score of the season was UConn 45, Syracuse 25. In the Carrier Dome.
False. The most stunning halftime score was Tennessee 48, Texas 28. In Austin.
• 5. The SEC is down yet again.
True. Is this conference ever going to send another team to another Final Four? (The last SEC entrant to qualify was Florida in 2000.) Somehow the Gators have risen to No. 2 in the rankings, but that’s a mirage. They’ll lose within the next week at either Tennessee or South Carolina, if not both places. Alabama was sliding even before it lost Chuck Davis, and Georgia is still a year away from making a big push. And as much regard as I have for Tubby Smith, I must concede that there’s no reason for Kentucky to have lost six times already.
• 6. Gonzaga is for real this time.
False. The Zags occupy a curious position — too well-known to be a sleeper ever again but not quite good enough to make a Final Four run. And the lack of competition in the Big West means Gonzaga will enter the NCAA highly seeded yet again but having not played a significant game in two months.
• 7. The Big Ten is the nation’s best conference.
False. The Big Ten is second-best. The elephantine Big East is loaded. Put it this way: Louisville looked like a really fine team until it started playing games in its new conference; now the Cardinals need to upset UConn on Saturday to keep from falling from the Top 25.
• 8. J.J. Redick is the nation’s best player.
True. Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison wouldn’t put up the same numbers against ACC defenses, and Redick’s teammate Shelden Williams is a tad overrated. (If the Landlord is such a great defender, how did Indiana’s Marco Killingsworth and N.C. State’s Cedric Simmons have career nights against him?) Every opponent knows what Redick is going to do, and he does it anyway. Yes, he gets a ton of publicity, but he — like Christian Laettner and Shane Battier, unlike Danny Ferry and Steve Wojciechowski — is a Dukie who deserves it.
• 9. There’s something amiss with Texas.
True. This is at worst the nation’s third-most-talented team (behind Duke and UConn), but something tells me the Longhorns will disappoint again. Perhaps you’ve noticed that Daniel Gibson, advertised as the consummate point guard, isn’t even the best distributor on his team. (Kenton Paulino has just as many assists and 16 fewer turnovers.)
• 10. It’s possible to be an unbeaten Big East team and still be underrated.
True. Pittsburgh is 14-0 and ranked No. 9, three spots behind thrice-beaten Gonzaga. And somehow Carl Krauser, the toughest player in the country the last three seasons, still never gets mentioned when the topic is the nation’s best point guard. Except in this space. I love the guy.
Permalink | Comments (24) | Categories: Mark Bradley, Tech / ACC, UGA / SEC
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By george
January 19, 2006 08:59 PM | Link to this
You might have not been doing your homework on Texas—Paulino coming along relieves Gibson of distribution duties and frees him for his core competency—scoring & penetrating. I don’t ever recall anyone advertising Gibson as a consummate point guard.
Having said that, his offensive production has paled Paulino’s recently. Mark is right about one thing—point guard is the issue at Texas and will sink them (ultimately).
By DavidU
January 19, 2006 09:12 PM | Link to this
Florida needs to get past Tennessee, if they win there they win at South Carolina. If they lose at Tennessee, then their youth might show for the first time all season and let one slip in South Carolina. But I see them getting past both of those teams, the one that does bring all kinds of problems is Vandy NEXT Sat. There the Gators could finally get their first loss of the season, Vandy has played the Gators tough the past 3-4 seasons, and they already beat Kentucky at Rupp so they are primed to be able to do the same in the O’Dome.
By Nero
January 19, 2006 09:15 PM | Link to this
Cedric Simmons is an absolute beast.
By john
January 19, 2006 09:22 PM | Link to this
Your statement that Michigan State, Duke, & Connecticut are the (3) best college programs in the country appears to have left out North Carolina and Kentucky. I am a Wake fan but I believe Kentucky and Carolina are the programs with the most wins.
By DavidU
January 19, 2006 09:27 PM | Link to this
He meant this year, not all time.
Though I don’t think you can really say whose going to be in the final four until you see the brackets and who has to play who.
By MickC
January 19, 2006 10:08 PM | Link to this
Depends what your definition of “for real” is. Gonzaga will get into the tournament, will get past the first weekend of play, then it al depends on the draw, like DavidU said. But then again I like Morrison, he has to be a close second to Redick, if only because he has the audacity to sport that weird mustache-thing.
By David Duncan
January 19, 2006 10:10 PM | Link to this
Ga Tech is not good enough to make the NIT this year, much less the NCAA.
By Ty
January 19, 2006 10:59 PM | Link to this
Mark is probably on target for most of these (though I hope he’s wrong on #10). The best part of b-ball is we have a playoff (i.e. March Madness) to settle it all.
If Texas of Florida get a ‘hot hand’ at the right time, they’re capable of making a run. Putting UCONN and Duke in the Final Four isn’t much of a reach (given their history).
And, David, Tech IS good enough for the NIT RIGHT NOW. The NCAA top 65 is a reach (and not likely), but one can never, never, NEVER question the strength of the ACC schedule in preparing their teams for tourney play. If they can ‘hold serve’ on their home court and pull off one ACC road win — coupled with one win in the ACC tourney — they’ll be in the NIT.
P.S. THANKS to all you bloggers, so far, for some real analysis (vs. a bunch of trash talk). I learned a little more about Texas and the Big East from you guys!
By jaybird
January 20, 2006 12:53 AM | Link to this
Mark is wrong in saying Louisville looked like a really fine team before they started playing Big East teams.
The Cards went undefeated against a bunch of cupcakes before getting killed by a bad Kentucky team in December. Their problems in Big East play should not be a surprise to anyone.
Speaking of Kentucky, Tubby’s miraculous discovery of the golden fax that restored the eligibility of Randolph Morris just doesn’t pass the smell test.
The return of Morris combined with the good fortune of playing in a weak conference may allow Kentucky to avoid the embarrassment of not making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1989.
Gonzaga has a lot to prove after they totally choked at the free throw line against Texas Tech in the second round of last year’s tournament.
The Zags need to at least make the Sweet 16 to silence the critics who don’t think they among the nation’s top programs.
Clearly Duke is the team to beat, but they certainly aren’t dominant as witnessed by their games against Memphis, Indiana, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State (last night).
Also, anything can happen in a single elimination tournament and there are as many as 20 teams that are capable of making the Final Four if they get hot at the right time.
By john
January 20, 2006 04:25 AM | Link to this
Ga Tech probably will not make The Dance this year, but look out for next year! Paul Hewitt has a young, talented team that is certainly going to take its lumps this year, but is getting better. They just don’t have experience yet.
Once he gets this current team mature and with the great kids coming in, he will start to be in a position to “reload” rather than “rebuild” as he is doing now.
john
By Coach
January 20, 2006 08:05 AM | Link to this
Mark, why do you always have to take a shot at Georgia Tech? Your comment about taking a lead from Paul Hewitt and blaming it on the refs is why out of bounds and inappropriate.
By J.B.
January 20, 2006 08:47 AM | Link to this
Your Big Blue ignorance is showing, my man. The SEC must be down because U.K. is down? Kentucky doesn’t run this conference anymore. Florida is obviously better than you realize but your real mistake was ignoring the SEC West. LSU — you might want to take a look at that team and it’s very likely that Arkansas is going to prove to be the second best over there.
The conference isn’t down — it’s leadership has simply changed.
By GT SQ
January 20, 2006 10:28 AM | Link to this
I was worried about my Jacket’s chances for the NCAA until I saw this article. If Bradley says we’re out then surely we will make it. Seriously, I thought the Jackets were just too young to make it this year, but Coach Hewitt seems to think we’re going to come on strong and get in. I never underestimate Coach Hewitt’s capabilities, even if Bradley thinks he complains about the refs too much.
By bill
January 20, 2006 11:00 AM | Link to this
It does seem that Mark takes excessive shots at Hewitt, considering he did make the NCAA TITLE GAME 2 years ago. Tech and Ga. are both NIT bound. Can not wait to see both of these schools next year. Both are serious contenders the next 2 years. By the way, does Mark EVER watch coach K or G.Williams on the sidelines? They work over the refs before the tip-off!!
By Arizona
January 20, 2006 11:11 AM | Link to this
it is nice to see that some things never change. i left ATL 10 years ago, and Bradely was writing the exact same articles then. Tell me, is Terrance Moore still a moron too? I have never seen “reporters” hate their local teams so much. Tech has a great program, and Paul Hewitt is one of the brightest young coaches in the Game. Yes, they are young. But they are getting better - quickly. If you want to see a truly bad program, come out and watch ASU under Rob Evans. Some of you (Bradley) don’t appreciate what you have. i would gladly trade you Evans for Paul Hewitt. But then you guys don’t have much luck with trades to us in PHX. 70 million for Joe Johnson! thats AWESOME!! but hey, thanks for Boris Diaw and all those draft picks!
By Wayne Gibson
January 20, 2006 11:21 AM | Link to this
David U, if he meant this year, he’d have said “three best teams” not “programs.” Programs refers to over a long time, and UNC and Kty both deserve to be on there.
By Ty
January 20, 2006 12:15 PM | Link to this
Hey Coach & GT SQ!
Thanks for reminding me about the ‘shot’ regarding Hewitt and the refs. Reminded me to comment on that.
Paul Hewitt IS young and sharp. He learned VERY EARLY in his ACC tenure (by watching Coach K at work) that you have to coach the team AND the referees on any given night. I noticed several years ago that Coach ‘K’ does an impressive job at ‘working the refs’ as they say.
If you’ll watch him at any timeout or pause in the game, he’ll first focus on the referees and put a few ‘bugs in their ears’. Is it coincidence that they then suddenly have a ‘surge’. Great coaching? YES. Great politicking? YES. (I, for one, have learned to tolerate the overly agressive Duke mugging (or, as Dookie V would say, “tough TOUGH defense, BABY”) that the Dukies will be granted for stretches of the game after a little “one-on-one” time between Coach ‘K’ and the zebras.
Case in point….the other night Sheldon W. (I think) was almost ‘knocked out’ during the game. He lay on the ground for a couple of minutes while the trainers checked him out (with Coach at the bench). Then, Mike K. walks across the floor, stands by his player, and SPENDS THE ENTIRE TIME talking with the refs. Only when Sheldon was helped to his feet did he address his player. (now, please, I’m not trying to start a “Duke” war here and ‘no’ I don’t think Coach should be a trainer….only making the point of the importance of working the officials).
All that said, Paul Hewitt has learned to do the same thing (though not as well as the “Master”). So, when he’s barking at the refs (or putting them on notice in the media), I don’t see “whining”. I see a Coach who is savvy enough to recognize the “good old boy” network at work on Tobacco Road who is proactively “taking them on” to help his team.
I’m pretty sure my fellow ‘non-tobacco-road’ fans will agree. (Hey Clemson followers, remember Rick Barnes calling Dean Smith out?….ahh, those were the days!)
By Glenn
January 20, 2006 12:21 PM | Link to this
Clemson Takes DUKE to the wire, before losing by 10 thanks to the referees, and having to foul to get the ball back.
The Sporting News saw the Clemson / Duke Game as a telling point. Coach K pulled out another road game, But Clemson With a Star inelegible due to Grades, Gave them more than they wanted.
I agree, Duke Stumbles into the NcAA’s with 3-5 losses.
By jaybird
January 20, 2006 01:23 PM | Link to this
In response to J.B., regardless of whether there has been a change in leadership, the fact remains that the SEC has advanced ZERO teams to the Final Four during the last five NCAA Tournaments.
In the same time frame, the ACC has advanced SIX teams to the Final Four, while the Big 10 and Big 12 has made four appearances each. Although the Big East has advanced only two teams to the Final Four since 2000, both won the national championship.
Translated, the SEC is light years behind the elite basketball conferences. It will be up to Florida to keep the SEC’s embarrassing streak (of not putting a team in the Final Four) from extending to six years.
By Hairy Dawg
January 20, 2006 02:33 PM | Link to this
“8. J.J. Redick is the nation’s best player.
True. Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison wouldn’t put up the same numbers against ACC defenses…”
Alright, Mark. What exactly has Adam Morrison done against top competition this year to make you think he wouldn’t put up similar numbers in the ACC?
In games against Maryland, Michigan State, UConn, Washington, Oklahoma State, Virginia and Memphis, Adam Morrison averaged 30.7 ppg. His season average is 28.3 ppg.
You know what. Maybe you’re right…if “right” means “wrong.”
By jaybird
January 20, 2006 03:01 PM | Link to this
Redick is a great player, but I have go with Hairy Dawg on this one. Morrison was unbelievable against the best teams in the country during a brutal stretch in December.
Morrison is taller,younger,and more versatile. He can post up against shorter defenders,kill you from the outside,beat opponents to the other end of the court for easy transition baskets, and is a solid rebounder.
In all three Duke losses in the NCAA tournament since Redick’s arrival, he has had a terrible shooting game.
If Duke hopes to win it all, Redick must be at the top of his game against every opponent starting with their second round matchup.
The single elimination format puts a huge amount of pressure on the team that most people think will win it all.
I think the Duke seniors feel more pressure than anyone else to win the national championship, since their recruiting class was so ballyhooed.
Furthermore, it really has to stick in their craw that it was Carolina’s recruiting class that unexpectedly (according to most experts) beat these Duke seniors to the punch in winning a national championship.
By Valerie
January 20, 2006 05:42 PM | Link to this
Tech is young but good enough for NIT but I think they make the 65 teams. Kentucky should be in the top and Ty is right, something about ugly Coach K seem to get his way around the ref. Maybe the ref afraid of his face, hahaah.
By geechee
January 20, 2006 08:04 PM | Link to this
“P.S. THANKS to all you bloggers, so far, for some real analysis (vs. a bunch of trash talk).”
This is true only because there have been no gator fans posting yet. When you start seeing gator posts you will start seeing the trash talk.
By The Truth
January 20, 2006 11:56 PM | Link to this
Mark, you are a pompous man indeed, especially when you talk of things you do not know, such as Carl Krauser. He is not Pittsburgh’s point guard any more. He has been relieved of that duty. So perhaps, you are wrong in your words about him and the Panthers.