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Monday, October 17, 2005
4-2 start can’t hide weakness in foundation
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jeff Schultz
Flowery Branch — If you looked at the Falcons’ schedule before the season and saw early games against the three-time Super Bowl champions, the most dominant team in the NFC during the last four years and four defending playoff opponents in five weeks …
“I know, you wouldn’t have thought we’d be 4-2,” coach Jim Mora said.
But if you thought 4-2, you probably also thought “pretty good.”
Six weeks in, these are the Falcons: 4-2 and not “pretty good.”
There are 4-2s that turn into Super Bowl contenders. There are 4-2s that morph into 8-8. The Falcons might be the former but they look closer to the latter.
Now. This is usually the time when a media-savvy coach reminds everybody not to jump off a cliff, even if behind the scenes he might be ready to push one or two guys off. He might even drop in a line, like Monday’s: “Hey, we’ve won four games, and I’m not giving them back.”
And, yes, there are 10 games left. And, yes, sometimes problems do fade and teams do get better and last season the Falcons’ defense was drilled in consecutive weeks by Kansas City and Denver (in a win), then rebounded.
But there are problems with some of the Falcons’ problems. They’re not going to go away. Pass coverage can improve. But at the end of the day, Jason Webster is still going to be Jason Webster, and Brian Scott may still be just a really good piano player.
Run defense can improve. But when you rank 28th in the NFL (133.5 yards per game) and have allowed three opposing backs more than 100 yards, and the New Orleans Saints (with their Nos. 2 and 3 running backs) rush for 211 yards, it screams that one or two tweaks isn’t going to fix things.
Only four teams — Cleveland, Buffalo, Houston, Minnesota — are worse against the run. None is 4-2. Combined, they’re 6-15.
Young receivers can improve. But Michael Jenkins and Roddy White aren’t turning into Clayton and Duper by Week 10, and the only thing Dez White has given the Falcons is a statistical improbability: He has half as many catches (2) as a backup tight end (Dwayne Blakley has 4).
White has approached Peerless Price status. That is, cutting White may not make the Falcons better. But at least it would prevent the mistake of ever throwing in his direction again.
There’s also the Michael Vick issue. Health is always a concern with a running quarterback, particularly a running quarterback who plays behind a line which too often shows holes in protection. But Vick already has had hamstring and knee injuries, and those are the type of ailments that generally linger. He aggravated the knee Sunday against New Orleans.
Last year, we didn’t know what to expect. We got 11-5 and an NFC title game.
This doesn’t look like 11-5. It certainly doesn’t look like an NFC finalist. Playoff contenders stop the runs and minimize big plays. Playoff contenders can’t afford to rely on late-game heroics by banged-up quarterbacks.
The question isn’t whether the Falcons’ problems will disappear. The question is whether they can overcome the problems that aren’t going away.
At least Mora isn’t deluding himself. Addressing the team in general and the run defense in particular Monday, he said, “No one is trying to brush it under the carpet and say, ‘We got a win. We’re 4-2. The world is great.’ If you aspire to be a team that goes far in the playoffs and bring the trophy back to Atlanta, then you don’t sweep that stuff under the rug.”
Tampa Bay is better than expected. Carolina is good, as expected. New Orleans is still a pain in the butt for this team. So suddenly, splitting division games looks like an accomplishment. Suddenly, road games at Miami, Chicago, and Detroit on Thanksgiving look like a struggle. The New York Jets next Monday? Curtis Martin ran for 148 Sunday.
Mora said of the defense, “We’re off a hair. When you’re off a hair in this league it can look very bad.”
Six weeks in, the hair looks like a woolly mammoth.
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