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Thursday, November 13, 2008
AJC Football Predictions: East Paulding falls; St. Pius tops Cartersville
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The high school football playoffs are a time when fans like to say throw out the records and forget the rankings. People start talking about heart and community pride.
Well, if that were the case, then I might as well pick Luella to upset top-ranked and undefeated Lowndes because those Lions have a heck of a lot of heart and plenty of community pride. Of course, it just doesn’t work that way.
Every year we have surprises in the playoffs — teams that defy the experts and their seeding to make a deep run in the playoffs. But for the most part, the playoffs usually go exactly as expected. Every now and then you get a No. 4 seed that bumps off a No. 1, but if you go with what is expected, your bracket usually looks pretty good.
We are down to 32 teams in each classification, and over the next five weeks, we are in for a treat which all comes to an end on my birthday. That’s kind of fitting for me since the playoffs during the football season is the best time of the school year as far as I am concerned.
When it comes to picking, the games just get harder and harder, but as coaches like to say, it’s time to take things to another level. In the last week of the regular season, the fearless football forecaster was 10-6 with some pretty interesting region title games on the line. For the year, I am 79-39.
Let’s get it on!
SmAAAAAck Talk: For the state’s largest classification, there has been tons of talk about Region 5 vs. Region 6. This paper has said that Region 5 is the second strongest in the state, but I am still trying to determine if the region is all very strong or all very mediocre. This first round will answer a lot.
Woodstock made the playoffs when everyone else had counted it out, but winning at Raider Valley isn’t an easy task. Walton rolls to the second round. The other Cherokee County team — Etowah — is in much better position against Lassiter. Despite their ESPN highlights, the Trojans will find a defense up to the task and a split-back veer that is being run almost to perfection right now. Cherokee goes 1-1.
Harrison has been a favorite whipping boy in this column this year, but despite its loss last week, it still managed to claim home field. Kell is one of the best stories of the year under first-year coach Derek Cook. If Harrison allows Kell to stay close, the Longhorns will nip them. But Harrison is healthier this week and at home, and that makes the difference.
The other game in this clash of regions pits Toney Williams and Milton hosting East Paulding. I’ve lost faith in East Paulding, and Williams is the kind of running back that can hurt the Raiders. One and done for the Raiders? Yep.
Gwinnett Greatness: Lots of Gwinnett games this week, and in most of them, I’m still picking a Gwinnett winner even when I am picking a Gwinnett loser.
Parkview managed the No. 2 seed from its region, but the more I look at that region, the weaker it seems. Take Norcross in a mini-upset, while North Gwinnett takes out Brookwood, but it will be a lot closer than some might think.
Peachtree Ridge, which proved me wrong big-time last week, rolls on to face Harrison, and, of course, Grayson is the best team I have never seen.
Out and about: One of the most interesting games in the first round in Class AAAAA is Chapel Hill hosting Windsor Forest. Chapel Hill is trying to build a reputation as a good team, while Windsor Forest will try to shed that really bad reputation that haunts Region 3 teams besides Camden County. The feel-good story of AAAAA keeps going another week for the Panthers. … I’m very, very tempted to pick a Region 1-AAAAA sweep, but I just can’t. I’ll say that everyone else wins, but Coffee falls after that long drive to Stephenson. Chalk up wins for Lowndes, Northside-Warner Robins and Tift County.
Fast and dirty: Sprayberry over Cedar Shoals. … Athens goes 0-for-2 in the picks as Sequoyah takes a victory on the road against Clarke Central. … Washington County brings the House of Pain to metro for a win over Woodward. … St. Pius bounces back to take care of Cartersville. … Upset Special of the Week (served up steaming with two sides): Coosa drops undefeated Jefferson. You can throw out the records and rankings on that one.
WEEKEND PREDICTIONS WIN / LOSS PERCENTAGES
Last week: 140-36 (.795) • Season: 1,437-383 (.790)
PLAYOFF GAMES
Class AAAAA
Winner / Loser
Camden Co. / Creekside
Chapel Hill / Windsor Forest
East Coweta / Bradwell Inst.
Etowah / Lassiter
Grayson / Collins Hill
Harrison / Kell
Lowndes / Luella
Milton / East Paulding
Newnan / Johnson-Sav.
Norcross / Parkview
North Gwinnett / Brookwood
Northside-W.R. / Union Grove
Peachtree Ridge / Dacula
Stephenson / Coffee
Tift Co. / M.L. King
Walton / Woodstock
Class AAAA
Winner / Loser
Brunswick / Bainbridge
Evans / Mt. Zion-Jones.
Griffin / Glenn Hills
Hephzibah / Jonesboro
Loganville / Hillgrove
Marist / Northgate
North Clayton / Richmond Acad.
Rome / Apalachee
Sandy Creek / Chamblee
Sequoyah / Clarke Central
Sprayberry / Cedar Shoals
Statesboro / Harris Co.
Thomas Co. Cent. / Ware Co.
Villa Rica / S.W. DeKalb
Westside-Macon / Glynn Academy
Whitewater / Tucker
Class AAA
Winner / Loser
Baldwin / Eagle’s Landing
Burke Co. / Mary Persons
Cairo / Troup
Carrollton / Washington
Carver-Col. / Crisp Co.
Dunwoody / Central-Carroll
Eastside / Creekview
Gainesville / Oconee Co.
Hart Co. / North Hall
Jackson / Thomson
LaGrange / Dougherty
Peach Co. / Shaw
Ridgeland / Carver-Atl.
St. Pius / Cartersville
Stephens Co. / Flowery Branch
Washington Co. / Woodward Acad.
Class AA
Winner / Loser
Appling Co. / Cook
Brooks Co. / Tattnall Co.
Buford / Heard Co.
Calhoun / Banks Co.
Callaway / GAC
Charlton Co. / Fitzgerald
Coosa / Jefferson
Dublin / Central-Macon
Henry Co. / Laney
Jefferson Co. / Northeast-Macon
Lovett / Macon Co.
North Oconee / Rockmart
Pepperell / Riverside Military
Southwest-Macon / Toombs Co.
Thomasville / McIntosh Co. Acad.
Westminster / Pike Co.
Class A
Winner / Loser
Athens Academy / Wash.-Wilkes
Bowdon / Holy Innocents’
Bremen / Landmark Christ.
Brookstone / Sav. Country Day
Clinch Co. / Twiggs Co.
ELCA / Darlington
ECI / Greenville
Johnson Co. / Schley Co.
Lincoln Co. / Social Circle
Miller Co. / Dooly Co.
Sav. Christian / Chattahoochee Co.
Turner Co. / Terrell Co.
Wesleyan / Warren Co.
Whitefield Acad. / Gordon Lee
Wilcox Co. / Seminole Co.
Wilkinson Co. / Commerce
— Compiled by Chip Saye
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