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Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Brackets, schmackets! It’s PCS time!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As we watched the BCS madness unfold last weekend, using computers, polls and tea leaves to sort out who gets to play for the national title, we at Take Ten gave thanks for the high school playoffs that settle things on the field. But we couldn’t help but think: “How different would Georgia high school football look if we scrapped the brackets and used a BCS-style formula to set up the matchups?”
So through the magic of alternate-reality technology, we have used an unnecessarily complex computer model (not really) to determine who would be playing in the 10 Dome games this weekend if the PCS (Preps Championship Series) and its incomprehensible ranking system ran the Georgia high school postseason, combining the AJC and Associated Press polls to determine the PCS rankings and matchups.
10: Class A — No. 1 Emanuel Co. Institute vs. No. 4 Clinch Co.
This one works out perfectly. ECI running back Washaun Ealey has set the single-season state touchdown record at 50, and Clinch puts up 30 points a game. Largely because of Ealey, the Bulldogs haven’t scored fewer than 28 points in a game this season, and he should be the difference in this one. Winner: ECI.
9: Class A — No. 2 Lincoln Co. vs. No. 3 Wilcox Co.
Again, not too bad. This game actually happened last week, as Wilcox eliminated Lincoln County 34-24. The Red Devils are a good team, but they’ve proven they can give up some points to good teams (32 to Wilkinson County, 34 to Wilcox County). Wilcox already has proven it can beat the Devils in reality; there’s little reason to think the Pats couldn’t get it done in the imaginary world as well. Winner: Wilcox County.
8: Class AA — No. 1 Buford vs. No. 4 Calhoun
Here, we’ve got a Calhoun team that couldn’t get much going against Greater Atlanta Christian in a 26-7 second-round loss, against seemingly unbeatable Buford. Calhoun piled up plenty of points this year, but much of it was against inferior competition. Since GAC wouldn’t have gotten the chance, Buford would have exposed Calhoun in this one. Winner: Buford.
7: Class AA — No. 2 Charlton Co. vs. No. 3 Thomasville
With this system, it looks like the Bulldogs and their fans would have been spared the heartbreak of losing on a miraculous kickoff return with less than 20 seconds left, as they did last week against Lovett. They would have gotten an automatic bye to the semifinals. That’s the good news. The bad news is they’d have to play the three-time defending champs, and Charlton wasn’t going to lose to anybody but Buford. Winner: Charlton County.
6: Class AAA — No. 1 Carver (Col.) vs. No. 4 Shaw
The Tigers have been pretty dominant this year but struggled last week to get rid of Carrollton, 14-7. Shaw couldn’t get by Cairo in the second round, falling 21-14. Shaw’s only loss of the season would have been to Carver in Week 2, 29-7. The Raiders may be better now than they were then, but it’s doubtful they’re that much better. Winner: Carver.
5: Class AAA — No. 2 North Hall vs. No. 3 Stephens Co.
This would have been a matchup of undefeated teams. North Hall will be at the Dome, but Chamblee took out Stephens 58-57 in the second round. Stephens is a talented team, but the Indians can give up points (28 to Habersham Central, 27 to Dublin, 28 to Oconee and, of course, 58 to Chamblee). Meanwhile, North Hall averages almost 45 points per game. Winner: North Hall.
4: Class AAAA — No. 1 Northside-Warner Robins vs. No. 4 Baldwin
Baldwin may have been the No. 4 seed out of Region 4 and may have lost in the first round, but the Braves make it to the Dome in this scenario. Of course, they’ve got to play Northside, who beat them 31-0 earlier in the year and hasn’t lost since the 2005 state final. Tough to bet against the Eagles. Winner: Northside.
3: Class AAAA — No. 2 Thomas Co. Central vs. No. 3 Tucker
This one would have been interesting and would have given the winner a shot at Northside. Tucker doesn’t have an especially explosive offense, but the Tigers’ defense is as dynamic as it is disciplined. And if you can’t score against them, you can’t beat them. But with the backfield duo of quarterback P.J. Williams and running back Debrale Smiley, the Yellow Jackets might just be potent enough to get into the end zone. Winner: Thomas County Central.
2: Class AAAAA — No. 1 North Cobb vs. No. 4 Lowndes
North Cobb was No. 1 and undefeated headed into the playoffs but couldn’t get past Peachtree Ridge in the first round. Lowndes has made its way to the Dome with some impressive postseason play so far. While the Warriors’ offense is nice, Lowndes’ is almost as good, and the Vikings’ defense is better. Winner: Lowndes.
1: Class AAAAA — No. 2 M.L. King vs. No. 3 Norcross Neither of these teams will be in the Dome this weekend. MLK went down last week 20-19 on a last-second Walton field goal, while Norcross had little success against Grayson in the second round, losing 34-16. Both of these teams can throw the ball, and both play solid defense. The difference might be MLK running back Cordellaro Jones, who gives the Lions a big-time playmaker out of the backfield. Given Norcross’ struggles with Etowah and Grayson in the playoffs, it doesn’t look like the Blue Devils would have gotten through this one. Winner: MLK.
Taking this one step further, the projected PCS champions would have been as follows:
Class A: ECI
Class AA: Buford
Class AAA: North Hall
Class AAAA: Northside-Warner Robins
Class AAAAA: Lowndes
Go on. Take Ten. How does the PCS look to you? If it’s good enough for the NCAA, could it be good enough for high school ball? Should we scrap the brackets? Are we way off on these projections? Let us know.
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