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Monday, November 26, 2007
Underrated kudos; predicting the quarters
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
My predictions weren’t that bad last week, but I’ve got to admit that I’m more comfortable ranking things than predicting them.
So to get back into my comfort zone, here are the Top 10 most underrated teams throughout the season. These are teams that mostly I have underrated, not so much those Cinderella teams such as GAC or Perry that everybody underrated.
These are teams whose fans have told me I should know better, but I didn’t listen.
1. North Gwinnett: I didn’t rank the Bulldogs in the preseason despite their quarterfinal finish in 2006; I didn’t rank them No. 1 in October when they had faced the toughest schedule among all the undefeated teams; I didn’t think they were a serious state contender despite a 9-1 finish; and I didn’t think they’d beat Brookwood, even though they’d beaten them the last two times the two teams had played.
Now, I’ve seen enough.
I’m convinced North Gwinnett is the kind of well-balanced, well-coached team that can win it all. I’d also put Bob Shire in my Top 10 list for coaches who give the most insightful interviews. Not sure this is a compliment coming from a sportswriter, but I’ve been impressed.
2. Walton: I had Walton ranked higher than anyone else all season, but in a patronizing way. It was only because Walton had beaten Roswell and lost only once, at North Gwinnett, so I had no choice. I still haven’t seen Walton play this season, but I’m talking to too many coaches who hold Walton in high regard. Maybe this is Walton’s best team ever (although I still think Roswell is better. Just stubborn, I guess.)
3. East Paulding: I thought East Paulding was a flash in the pan. Still don’t think EP can hang w/the elite teams in AAAA, such as Thomas County Central, so I’m really meeting EP fans in the middle, not joining them in their living rooms. But to follow up one Final Four season with a 12-0 record and a run to the quarterfinals, that’s more than I figured the Raiders could conjure up with the talent that graduated. John Reid is making a name for himself in just two seasons as a Georgia head coach.
4. Chamblee: If the Bulldogs couldn’t make the playoffs with Roddy Jones, I saw no reason to rank them this season. Only when they got to 5-0 did I give them the No. 10 spot, and that was almost by default. Now, I’ve got to give new coach Jim Showfety credit. Chamblee has made the quarters and won 11 games for the first time since 1982.
5. Fellowship Christian: Got a call from coach Bob Lord in September suggesting that Fellowship should be ranked. I sort of laughed it off and told him nicely that maybe if Fellowship could just play Athens Academy a close game that the Paladins would get on the radar in the distance somewhere. Well, Fellowship has trounced Athens Academy, won Region 5 and made the quarterfinals. No way did I see that coming.
6. Grayson: I kept Grayson in the Top 10 in Week 3 after the loss to Norcross, so it can’t be said that I didn’t realize this was an outstanding team from the start, but I made the mistake of writing off the Rams as a state contender after Brookwood rolled them in October. I’m really not shocked that the Rams are in the quarterfinals, but I can’t believe those scores — 34-0 over Chattahoochee and 34-16 over Norcross. Anything is possible for Mickey Conn and his Rams now.
7. M.L. King: I ranked MLK in preseason (unlike the AP and Gasports.com), and while I picked Valdosta to beat the Lions last week, I put the point spread at one, basically a toss-up, so I’m not conceding much here. But somewhere, I lost faith in my preseason assessment, which was based on this team having a dozen seniors who likely will play college football. I didn’t see MLK winning Region 2 ahead of Stephenson, and I didn’t pick a quarterfinal finish, and MLK would not have been my preseason choice as the only 12-0 team in the state on Nov. 25. So MLK is getting a letter of respect in the mail from me this week. Still don’t think the Lions can win state, but I feel better about them than I have in a while.
8. Dublin: I saw the Irish taking a big step back this season, but now they’re on the brink of another semifinal despite heavy graduation from a state championship team. That’s a sign of good coaching, and Roger Holmes and staff are among the best.
9. Cherokee: Even though Cherokee lost last week, the Warriors get kudos for beating a region champion, Dalton, and nearly taking out Habersham Central, a team that I’ve pegged as state champion material. Cherokee always puts up a fight in the playoffs, and that’s a credit to Brian Dameron, one of Georgia’s more underrated coaches.
10. Newnan: After losing QB Thomas Darrah, one of my favorite competitors in high school sports last season, Newnan wasn’t a team I saw as a region champ or state quarterfinalist. I didn’t think Newnan would beat East Coweta or Coffee. Still don’t see the Cougars as one of the best 10 teams in the state, but it’s been a pretty good ride for the Region 4 champs.
OK, the predictions. Note point spreads in parentheses.
AAAAA
Lowndes d. Roswell (1)
Grayson d. Camden (3)
Walton d. MLK (6)
North Gwinnett d. Newnan (15)
NOTE: If the Roswell-Lowndes game were in ATL, I’d pick Roswell. Really impressed with them (despite the unfortunate finish vs. Peachtree Ridge last week).
AAAA
TCC d. East Paulding (8)
Ware d. Hab Central (3)
Tucker d. Bainbridge (21)
Northside d. Rome (7)
NOTE: Hab’s stock is dropping. Where’s the defense?
AAA
Cairo d. Carver-ATL (16)
North Hall d. Perry (4)
Carver-COL d. Carrollton (2)
Chamblee d. Westover (2)
NOTE: Getting nervous about North Hall.
AA
Thomasville d. Lovett (8)
Cook d. GAC (3)
Buford d. Charlton (12)
Dublin d. Pepperell (10)
NOTE: I’m sticking my neck out in Folkston.
A
Clinch d. Fellowship (10)
ECI d. Warren (9)
Wilcox d. Lincoln (8)
Brookstone d. Athens Academy (3)
NOTE: The bus lets off Lincoln at the next stop.
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