AJC > Sports > Highschools > Blog > Archives > 2005 > November > 10 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USUpsets, like predictions, are inevitable
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The beautiful thing about being a lower-seeded team in the Georgia High School Association football playoffs is you’re playing with the house’s money.
If you lose, it was expected. If you win, you can crow about shaking up the world, mug for the cameras and act like it’s completely unthinkable for anybody to have doubted you in the first place.
The other beautiful thing about being lower seeded is, upsets are inevitable. This year’s no different.
Those no longer among the playoff living are easily recognized names — Carrollton, Warner Robins, Tucker. And there’ll be more.
In fact, there’ll be an upset in every class. Today.
I tend to shy away from picking as many upsets in the lower classes because with fewer available student-athletes, every disparity is magnified. Think of it this way: If I have eight players and you have seven, I have a one-player disparity in my favor. But if I have two players and you have one, I still have a one-player disparity, but this one player makes me twice as strong. Chess players make a killing on that kind of math.
This week’s predictions come down to which is stronger: my penchant for being correct, or my power to fire up the team that is being picked against? In which classes will the underdog be strong enough to overcome the favorite and bulletin-board inspiration that is certain to be taped up in the their locker room?
Here are the ones I think can handle it.
Class AAAAA: Roswell. Even I’m surprised to be saying this. When the Hornets were stumbling over the Waltons and Sequoyahs of the world last month, they hardly looked like a team that could stand toe-to-toe with Parkview and exit with their mouths unsmashed.
The Hornets have pulled off playoff upsets before — a 9-7 victory against Southwest DeKalb in 1996 immediately comes to mind, though the best they’ve done in three playoff trips to Parkview is come close once. Parkview remains formidable, even coming off an unusual two-loss regular season, but the Panthers are susceptible to the same kind of shocker that befell top-seeded Harrison last week.
Class AAAA: Chamblee. Twenty-three years is a long time between playoff victories, so don’t expect the Bulldogs to be in any hurry to leave. They have a difficult trip to Rome, which narrowly averted an upset by fourth-seeded Madison County last week. The Bulldogs have shown flashes of being a major player. They were the first to expose Tucker’s vulnerabilities before losing a game they appeared well on their way to winning. Although Tucker held Chamblee off, Southwest DeKalb picked up where the Bulldogs left off and finished the job. With Roddy Jones leading the way, Chamblee will usher Rome off the playoff stage the same way Warner Robins went.
Class AAA: M.L. King. Can the Lions really do it again? When do you cease to call their road victories in the playoffs upsets? The Lions can’t be any more confident than they are after knocking off top-ranked Carrollton last week. By now, coach Corey Jarvis has instilled in them not only the belief they can prevail, but also how to behave after doing it. So, when they beat Hart County, forgive them if they act like they knew it was going to happen. They did.
Class AA: Heard County. There are few places more difficult for a visitor to win in South Georgia than Charlton County. So Heard County is fortunate to be getting the defending champion Indians on their turf back home in Franklin. Home turf alone won’t win this one, however. The Braves are better than the standard second-round fare that Charlton County plays this time of year and almost never has to visit.
With multiple threats like Super 11 back Carlos Brown, Dre Ware and Dontavious Jackson, Heard County at least has a better chance at matching up with a potent Charlton offense than just about anybody this side of Dublin. And remember, few expected No. 6 Vidalia to be home right now, so it shouldn’t be a shock when No. 7 Charlton follows.
Class A: Twiggs County. Until last week, McIntosh County Academy was one of the teams being touted as a possible champion. Twiggs County took care of that with a convincing 32-13 win that avenged last season’s 30-0 second-round defeat.
Now, the Cobras find themselves facing Clinch County, a co-champion alongside Hawkinsville, but like Hawkinsville not as dominant as last season. The Cobras will have to maximize every chance they get because disparities in Class A are more pronounced.
CLASS AAAAA
Winner/Loser
Brookwood/Marietta
Camden Co./Valdosta
Central Gwinnett/Walton
Dacula/Kell
Lowndes/Union Grove
Roswell/Parkview
Starr’s Mill/Colquitt Co.
Stephenson/East Coweta
CLASS AAAA
Winner/Loser
Chamblee/Rome
Lee Co./Griffin
Marist/Salem
North Forsyth/Dalton
Northside-WR/Thomas Central
Southwest DeKalb/Rockdale Co.
Statesboro/Douglas Co.
Upson-Lee/Baldwin
CLASS AAA
Winner/Loser
Central-Carroll/Flowery Branch
Dougherty/Thomson
Gainesville/Westlake
LaGrange/Mary Persons
M.L. King/Hart Co.
Peach Co./Northside-Col.
Shaw/Perry
Stephens Co./Cartersville
CLASS AA
Winner/Loser
Brooks Co./Macon Co.
Buford/Lovett
Calhoun/Morgan Co.
Dublin/Cook
Fitzgerald/Jackson
Greene Co./Darlington
Heard Co./Charlton Co.
Laney/Grady
CLASS A
Winner/Loser
Bowdon/Warren Co.
Bremen/Social Circle
Hawkinsville/Randolph-Clay
Johnson Co./Seminole Co.
Lincoln Co./Gordon Lee
Turner Co./Sav. Country Day
Twiggs Co./Clinch Co.
Wash.-Wilkes/Temple
Permalink | Comments (39) | Categories: 2005, Darryl Maxie
Comments
Commenting is now closed for this entry.
By # 1 Jacket Fan
November 11, 2005 5:44 AM | Link to this
Don’t be surprized if Thomas County Central is playing back in the City of Roses next week.
By Michael
November 11, 2005 6:36 AM | Link to this
I was waiting for that Thomas County Central game to be the upset pick for AAAA. I think it’s very possible that they can pull it off.
By William
November 11, 2005 8:45 AM | Link to this
The Hornets will defeat Parkview tonight, as Darryl Maxie predicted!! Go Hornets!!!
By Scott
November 11, 2005 10:06 AM | Link to this
Darryl put the cognac down before going with Cent-Carrollton, and going against Rome! By the way care to post how you did on picks last week? I went 12-4-AAAAA 10-6-AAAA 12-4-AAA 12-4-AA 11-5-A 57-23-overall
By Alex Lipford
November 11, 2005 10:51 AM | Link to this
Heard vs. Charlton will be one of teh best AA games this week. I can only hope that the predcitions are right. GO Braves Go.
By Mike Callaway
November 11, 2005 11:34 AM | Link to this
Go Chamblee Bulldogs ! Nobody in Georgia wants a piece of my Southlake , Texas Carroll Dragons , 54-1 in the last four years, two AAAAA titles , 2004 & 2005 # 1 in National Prep Poll .
By homer
November 11, 2005 11:50 AM | Link to this
Darryl, you really need to quit sniffing the glue, man. It’s killing brain cells you need. Chamblee over ROME, is comical.
By AAAABALLA
November 11, 2005 12:59 PM | Link to this
Douglas County will beat Statesboro. Ask Warner Robins.
By R. Fayson
November 11, 2005 2:03 PM | Link to this
Hey Mr. Maxie, Douglas County doesn’t need your respect. Were going to take it. Statesboro here we come.
By david bronson
November 11, 2005 2:27 PM | Link to this
peach county may be the most dangerous 3 loss team in the state,losses to n-side w.r. and the top ranked 6-a team in alabama. not a bad band either
By Chris Hutchinson
November 11, 2005 2:39 PM | Link to this
To message is to ALL the Valdosta fans,
Camden Co. are the REAL Wildcats. You all had your share of victories and domination in the late 80’s and early/mid 90’s, but now it’s Camden Co. time. Good luck tonight at 7:30pm.
By Ron
November 11, 2005 2:45 PM | Link to this
Heard County comes into tonight’s game hungry because they feel like it’s now or never and they’ll be more than ready to face the defending state champion Charlton County. This is actually a better match-up for Heard County this week than last with the huge size advantage and look for a big game running the football. Heard is not as fast but alot stronger up-front and should be able to wear down the Indians in an extremely close contest. My perdiction is HC over CC 24-21 with special teams struggling for Heard.
By Chris Hutchinson
November 11, 2005 2:48 PM | Link to this
Could Camden Co. finally get some respect from the North Georgia teams? Parkview? Walton? Stephenson? Newman? I thought so…
By Alex Lipford
November 11, 2005 4:18 PM | Link to this
I agree with Ron. Heard County is VERY HUNGRY for the win. I do agree that the special teams will struggle but not that much. They have someone else who will try for the feild goals now. I am afraid to predict the score because I say it will be way to close of a game to even try to predict. GO BRAVES GO
By Killa Cam
November 11, 2005 4:56 PM | Link to this
Hey I guess yall forgot about how a little team called the Cedartown Bulldogs almost beat a shaky Carrollton and beat a alright Catersville team I guess there not that big after all
By socal scott
November 11, 2005 5:03 PM | Link to this
hate to see you picking LaGrange to win. Seems sure to mean we’re gonna lose. Still, in a rebuilding year, the 2 time defending state champs are hanging around.
By Georgia Boy
November 11, 2005 7:01 PM | Link to this
I don’t think Heard Co will be able to stop the double threat of Charlton Co QB Dwight Dasher. When he is not throwing to one of the top wr in the country, he will be pulling it down and running with it. I do agree it will be a good game with Charlton winning.
By Stu
November 11, 2005 9:53 PM | Link to this
Darryl Maxie once again gives SE Georgia no respect whatsoever. How can you go against the defending state champs and compare Charlton and it’s tradition to Vidailia? Don’t get it twisted, Charlton County has been very strong for the past 15 or 16 years, so don’t let one of these north GA teams get hot one year and think they are going to UPSET the Champs!!
By King
November 11, 2005 10:56 PM | Link to this
Please continue to pick against The Bears. Lee County over Griffin, please. 49-21 Go Bears!!!
By BearBacker
November 11, 2005 10:59 PM | Link to this
The Mighty Griffin Bears are on the Hunt..AGAIN!! We have a great team this year, And are on a roll at the right time. We dont criticize for being underrated and not appreciated, we just win. NOW GO TELL THAT!! GO BEARS!!!!!! GHS #1
By powbeech
November 12, 2005 12:25 AM | Link to this
heard co matched up really well with Charlton’s band and JV. What a joke heard co was!
By Scott
November 12, 2005 1:02 AM | Link to this
I told you Rome would roll, and I also said Cent-Carroll would fold!!! Sorry DC Tigers I think you guys got the toughest draw possible on back-to-back weeks, congrats on a fine year and career Coach Williams!
By georgiabulldog
November 12, 2005 2:13 AM | Link to this
THE STATE OF GEORGIA HAVE THE WORST REFS I HAVE SEEN IN 20 YEARS— THIS GAME IS TO BE PLAYED BY THE KIDS—-THERE IS NOWAY N HELL U HAVE A PERFECT HIGH SCHOOL TO WHERE ONLY ONE CALL IS MADE N A GAME—-ALL REFS NEED TO QUIT—-THIS IS A DISGRACE—THERE R UNDERDOGS AND FAVORITES IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE TO CHEAT FOR ANYONE OR SHOULD I SAY TURN YOUR HEAD——-I HOLD U REFS FALL AND BROKE YOUR NECK FOR HARMING THESE TEENAGERS
By Jaguars
November 12, 2005 7:50 AM | Link to this
Stephenson and Parkview … who do like now?
By Kyle
November 12, 2005 10:40 AM | Link to this
Mr. Maxie, Do you ever trouble yourself to find out about many of the teams you so confidently predict will be defeated? I know things like AA ball including Charlton Cty and Cook Cty don’t get much attention. Basing opinions on things like Dublins’ leaving starters in to run up scores and them not having played anybody of real consequence, including Vidalia, is not being well informed.However, teams like Cook play as hard a game as anybody would want. Do you ever take into consideration the extraordinary coaching by the likes of Rich McWhorter? All is not visible from your office on Marietta St.
By Scott
November 12, 2005 11:00 AM | Link to this
Here are my updates and winners for next week-(19-5)-5A,(17-7)-4A,(15-9)-3A,(18-6)-2A,(16-8)-1A,overall-(85-35). And now for this weeks winners….Lowndes,Stephenson,Camden Co.,Brookwood,Griffin,NW Warner,Statesboro,and upset special-Baldwin,Dougherty,LaGrange,Shaw,Stephens Co.,Macon Co.,Cook,Calhoun,Buford,Sav.Country Day,Lincoln,Bowdon, and Johnson Co. Peace out!
By chris
November 12, 2005 3:28 PM | Link to this
Daryl, you and the AJC missed the boat on Hart County. (I’m talking the Kings of the road article). MLK is a class act, but Hart County was simply the better team the second half of the game. Hart beat MLK without having their two best running backs on the field. Hart has some confidence to carry them past Shaw next week.
By Garrett
November 13, 2005 10:22 AM | Link to this
Wow You sure did miss that Heard-Charlton prediction didn’t you? That is always like the sports writers from Atlanta, they never give any credit to any South Ga. Team. That is why you find very few AJC papers in South GA. Maybe you need to do some research on tema before you pick them to lose first.
By Bill Walters
November 13, 2005 1:10 PM | Link to this
8 scores on 9 possessions. Welcome to South Georgia football Heard County
By Judy
November 13, 2005 3:19 PM | Link to this
Does anybody think that stephens county has a chance against peach county? Can stephens county do it?
By stephen
November 13, 2005 4:02 PM | Link to this
WE ARE VERY PROUD OF OUR INDIANS. WE ALSO FEEL THAT THEY CAN PLAY WITH ANY TEAM.tHEY JUST HAVE TO STAY FOCUSED AND CONSENTRATE AND DO WHAT THEY HAVE DONE ALL YEAR. GO INDIANS!!
By #1 indians fan
November 13, 2005 8:04 PM | Link to this
WE ARE SO PROUD OF THE STEPHENS COUNTY INDIANS.WE TAKE ALOT OF PRIDE THAT THEY CAN OVERCOME PEACH COUNTY THIS FRIDAY NITE. THEY PLAY SOLID AND PLAY WITH RESECT. SO YES WE FELL THAT WE CAN BEAT PEACH COUNTY. WE WHOULD REALLY LIKE TO HAVE SOME RESECT SHOWED TO THE INDIANS. GO MIGHTY INDIANS!!!
By #1 indians fan
November 13, 2005 9:39 PM | Link to this
YES THIS GAME BETWEEN THE STEPHENS COUNTY INDIANS AND PEACH CO.WILL BE A GREAT GAME PLEASE DO NOT UNDER RATE OUR INDIANS THEY HAVE PLAYED HARD ALL SEASON WITH PRIDE.SO YES WE KNOW THAT OUR TEAM STEPHENS CO.CAN PLAY AND CAN BEAT PEACH CO. GOOD LUCK INDIANS. WE ARE SO PROUD TO SAY YOU ARE OUR FOOTBALL TEAM.GO PLAY WITH PRIDE….GO BIG RED GO MIGHTY INDIANS……
By Bronco Fan
November 14, 2005 8:14 AM | Link to this
Will all you people who keep whining about so much Gwinnett coverage please shut up. 5 Gwinnett teams left, 4 in the biggest class. Thank you Gwinnett teams for proving our point. Region 8-AAAAA, best in the state.
By Tipp Smooth
November 14, 2005 12:01 PM | Link to this
Hold up, wait a minute,
Where did the last two Class AAAAA Championships go, Lowndes and Camden. It will once again be decided by Lowndes and Camden. Dirrtty South…
By Curtis
November 14, 2005 9:04 PM | Link to this
First off, I’m a Tucker fan. I was there when Statesboro beat us unfairly last year. That’s why I hate reffs of Georgia. They stopped the clock, and Statesboro kicked a field goal and won. Wasn’t fair. Statesboro, Southwest Dekalb will give you a game, and posibly win. When they beat you, consider it revenge from your cheating of last year’s quarterfinals.
By Zinte
November 15, 2005 9:14 AM | Link to this
To all you Valdosta High fans: the mystique is DEAD!! Why can’t you guys realize that the rest of the state not only has caught up w/you but also PASSED you!! Face it; not only are you no longer a GA elite power you’re not even a SOUTH GA elite power anymore(see Lowndes, Camden, et al). Winnersville? I don’t think so; at least not any MORE. And finally, if all you guys have to talk about is your past and your “tradition” it simply means your program hasn’t done CRAP lately and has NO present to speak of right NOW(which is what really matters anyway). Frankly, it doesn’t matter WHO the coach is. Seeing as how you HAD a good coach, ran HIM out of town;you guys got exactly what you deserved(news flash:Nick Hyder has been dead 10 years and he AIN’T comin’ back!). It will be interesting to see who the next coach is and how long it will be before the Touchdown Club fires HIM, too. Hope he knows what he’s in for.
By Georgia Boy
November 15, 2005 12:33 PM | Link to this
I see that Dacula has put in a request to move the game to Saturday night against Camden(as if it will help)because of the travel time. Camden speed will prove to be too much for Dacula. I wonder why they didn’t move Charlton County and Buford game to Saturday night. Charlton will have to travel about the same distance. Either way the neighbors from the south will be headed to the Dome again this year.
By brian
November 15, 2005 9:26 PM | Link to this
i see you stephens county people think peach county is a joke. perry beat your butts and now you think you are coming to trojan stadium and leave with a win good luck peach county is for real in which you will soon find out. remember our defense is way better than perry. the most dangerous team in 3a with 3 loses against bigger opponents who has stephens county played that can stand toe-toe with northside warner robins, tell me i would like to know