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DEL.ICIO.USWhat comes next in Iraq?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Last week’s theatrical production in Washington —- the ambassador and medal-bedecked general flying in from Baghdad to testify to Congress, President Bush addressing the nation, the candidates for his job pontificating on the course they would set for Iraq as president —- created the impression of a great democracy wrestling with weighty decisions.
But beneath the somber pageantry and sometimes confident rhetoric, it was easy to forget that all of us, from the president on down, are really just stumbling through the darkness that is Iraq, trying to feel our way through to an exit that we cannot see and that may not even exist.
One reason for that blindness is our reluctance to take less than a purely American perspective. Most of the decisions that determine Iraq’s future will be made not in Washington but in Iraq, and while we cannot hope to see clearly through Iraqi eyes, it can be useful to at least make the effort.
Last month, ABC News, the BBC and other news outlets released the results of a carefully conducted, detailed poll of more than 2,000 Iraqi citizens, all of whom were interviewed in person by fellow Arabic speakers.
Some of the poll results were wildly contradictory, but overall they suggest that real improvement has taken place in Iraq, particularly in the area of security. In a similar poll taken in August, 11 percent of Iraqis believed that security in their country had improved in the previous six months, a figure that rose to 36 percent in the new poll. (The poll was conducted in February, before the recent uptick in violence.)
However, of those who believed security had improved, only 4 percent were willing to attribute that improvement to U.S. forces.
In fact, almost half of Iraqis —- 46 percent —- say security would improve if U.S. forces left Iraq altogether, with only 29 percent saying security would decline if we did so.
Other numbers bolster the prediction that, John McCain’s wishes to the contrary, we will not be staying in Iraq another 100 years. According to the poll, 38 percent of Iraqis, and 61 percent of Iraqi Sunnis, want U.S. forces to leave immediately, with another 35 percent calling for our departure as soon as sufficient security is restored. Just 4 percent said they would accept a more permanent U.S. presence.
More starkly, 42 percent of those polled said they believe it is acceptable for Iraqis to attack U.S. forces. While that number is down from the 57 percent figure of August 2007, it is up substantially from 17 percent four years ago. Apparently, extended occupation does not foster friendly feelings.
It’s also illuminating to compare Iraqi responses to those of Americans asked similar questions. For example, 46 percent of Iraqis say that security in their village or neighborhood has improved in the last six months, 17 percent say it has declined and 36 percent say it has remained the same.
An NBC poll of Americans taken at approximately the same time reported similar results: 42 percent believed the surge had improved conditions in Iraq, 13 percent said it had made the situation worse and 34 percent said it had no impact.
But the real question in Iraq, as it was last week in Washington, is what comes next. The ultimate goal of the surge was not merely to improve security, but to create an opportunity for political reconciliation in Iraq. Many in the Bush administration claim to see signs that such a reconciliation is occurring, but most Iraqis do not. Only 21 percent said the surge had improved conditions for political dialogue in Iraq, while 43 percent claim it has worsened those conditions.
Most ominously, 54 percent of Iraqis say they would not advise Iraqi exiles to return home, and 36 percent would leave the country themselves if given the chance.
That last number is extraordinary. If more than one out of three Iraqis are ready to abandon their country, the chances of holding things together in the long term seem pretty slim.
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By Barrack Obama
April 14, 2008 7:46 AM | Link to this
Change!
AJC: Would you please elaborate on that Senator?
Change! Change! Change!
AJC: Yes, we understand that’s your slogan Senator … but what change?
Sorry, but I have to go talk to The View and Oprah. Women understand the word Change!
By Hillary Rodham
April 14, 2008 7:56 AM | Link to this
We are accessing that question in our focus group and will get back to you on that!
AJC: But Senator, you’ve said you will get us out of Iraq once you’re elected. What’s your plan?
Well, I’ve been in a war zone before myself - even shot at! It’s not an easy task to get out of a conflict!
AJC: Uh, Senator …. that story was proven to be false about Bosnia.
Are you calling me a liar? I only MISSPOKE …. get YOUR facts straight!
AJC: But YOU brought it up!
This Right-Wing Conspiracy just won’t stop!
AJC: Uh, Ms. Clinton - it was proven your husband WAS lying about his improper relationship with Ms. Lewensky.
It’s MS. RODHAM you idiot! Can’t you people get anything right?
By Copyleft
April 14, 2008 8:48 AM | Link to this
I’m glad we’re bringing democracy to Iraq. And now, the Iraqi people have spoken—“Americans, go home!”—, so our natural respect for the democratic process demands an immediate withdrawal.
Unless this WASN’T about bringing democracy to Iraq… nahh, that can’t be. Surely that’s what this was all about from the start, right?
By zeke
April 14, 2008 9:12 AM | Link to this
After years of hearing and reading the absurd rantings of liberals, and, the last year doing the same to democrat liberal socialist candidates and their entourage that is the media, I have finally reconciled myself to the fact that liberals are pure unadulterated idiots, including J Bookman, C Tucker, Mike King and the rest of the ajc editorial staff, not including J Wooten!
By 2U4U
April 14, 2008 9:12 AM | Link to this
Petreaus and Bush insist that if we leave now then chaos would ensue in Iraq. That’s a tacit admission that we can never leave. What would change? What could change?
Notice how the Kurds are never mentioned? WTF?
By MMK
April 14, 2008 9:37 AM | Link to this
This is election year, I’m praying for a leader who is NOT going to involve us in more conflicts without thinking about the consequences and at least a plan B…. unlike Mr.Bush!we’re in big trouble in Iraq and nobody has the “magic wand” unfortunately. Its going to take careful planning before we can withdraw our troops,may be we have to try to control the corruption in the different ministries of the Iraqui govt. ( Saw 60 minutes report sunday )
By 2U4U
April 14, 2008 9:39 AM | Link to this
Gates on meet the press sunday said that he likes the process that’s in place to a resolution in Iraq. He likes the way the conditions are forming up to allow for a satisfactory engagement. I wonder if he even wrote that double speak.
By 2U4U
April 14, 2008 9:50 AM | Link to this
The problem with Iraq is that it’s not Iraq, it’s an imposed 1930 peace by western powers and then handed off to a fascist dictator, and then 10K years of feuds get unleashed by our invasion. Maybe peace could happen with those particular people in 10K years, but so what?
By demwit
April 14, 2008 10:17 AM | Link to this
Hey JMan,
What percentage of Americans do you think would leave America, if given the chance? Does your elitist answer about Iraq falling apart apply to America too?? Or would you just chalk those Americans up as being ignorant? I mean, as it is, 50% of Americans don’t even vote!
Funny though.., how the corrupt media would spend so much time and effort into polling Iraqi’s and yet not bother to ask them the most important question of our elections. Is Iraq better off if America pulls out all combat troops next year?
Now why would they do that JMan??
By therealist
April 14, 2008 10:32 AM | Link to this
Love thy neighbor as thy self.
What would you want your neighbor to do if tryanny and oppression found root in your house? Retreat or get a little dirty pulling weeds??
We all know where Jay Bookman will be..
By Peter
April 14, 2008 10:48 AM | Link to this
Come on now folks…… it will be very HARD for Halliburton, and all the KINGS MENS to make BIG Money, and continue to pillage the AMERICAN Treasury, if we DO NOT stay in Iraq.
Plus how does King George and his Family make all that Oil money if we leave as well?
Folks this is about money making, we are not freeing anyone.
They have a 2000 year old civil war in Iraq they have yet to figure out, the only reason that WAR was put on hiatus, was they had a Dictator who used violence to keep it from emerging continuously.
Let’s get real about the actual situation !
By Osama Bin Laden
April 14, 2008 10:57 AM | Link to this
Thank you Peter for keeping the “War for Oil” mantra alive - I’ll put in a good word to Allah for your 64 virgins -IF you subjugate yourself to HIM!!! Otherwise, you’ll be enslaved or pay the ultimate price!
By Dusty
April 14, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this
Well, today I see that OPINION is written by the great groaner of the AJC. Was anyone surprised by what Bookman wrote? Not me.
Poor ol’ Bookman. THERE WAS A POLL IN IRAQ and everybody there was unhappy, scared, hungry,retreating etc. etc. Now, if one poll says that, it is the absolute truth. Bookman has read this one POLL and HE KNOWS ALL.
Then he labels General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker as a theatrical show (What do they know!!!)Bookman also misquotes McCain about the 100 years in Iraq, taking it out of context to prove his own connatation.
So it goes with the journalistic integrity of Bookman. If something can be read or twisted as discouragement to our troops, our ambassador, our President, and Republicans…Bookman goes for it. I suppose that is what lefties call support of the USA.
Osama appreciates the help.
By 2U4U
April 14, 2008 12:05 PM | Link to this
Excellent POint Dusty. I dont see how Bookman’s career can recover from that last comment. Wow. I never knew a retort like that was possible. You display an acumen with the ecumenical resources of a person versed in the attributes of an ebonical prowess not seen since fiddy cent.
apple bottom jeans
By Dusty
April 14, 2008 12:51 PM | Link to this
Dear R2D2 @12:05
Weren’t you just over at Wooten’s doing some sqawking there? Your perfidy is amalgamous but threaded with the virus of leftilitis, a gigantic gork of goofiness.(Do U work for Bookman?) As to “ebonics”, does not compute. I am a blanca babe compatible with all shades and similarities. Take your eccentrics and protoplasm OUT.
tie dyed sighs
By Lunatic Fringe
April 14, 2008 1:58 PM | Link to this
Iraq is Arabic for Viet Nam.
By Peter
April 14, 2008 2:00 PM | Link to this
Hey Dusty the lemming is over here….Great to see you…..
Yes the WAR is Fine, so is the Economy, Yes the Dollar looks strong compared to the EURO (63 Cents), and more Americans today than EVER are making BIG Money on their houses.
Also Dusty as we now see the Economy is stronger than it has EVER BEEN, and it is VERY EASY to get a great high paying Job!
All thinks your King George is doing just fine.
Great Post Dusty, we can all see how informed you truly are!
Thank you for that wonderful Post !
By Peter
April 14, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this
Hey Dusty Great Comment……”Osama appreciates the help.”
But I think you ought to really rephrase it differently…..
Osama appreciates George Bush’s help…… as we all know he created 911, and he has never been caught.
So really George Bush ought to be the one who should really be thanked by Osama!
Remember 911 Dusty ? But hey why should he go after the guy who created the disaster…… that might put him in bad standing with the rest of the family, and there is oil deals to be had !
By demwit
April 14, 2008 2:29 PM | Link to this
“38% of Iraqi’s and 61 percent of Iraqi Sunnis want U.S. forces to leave immediately”
Hmmmm…, funny don’t you think? I mean how Jay Bookman is now in total agreement with the very same people that had it sooo good under Saddam’s repression of the majority of Iraqi people..
Just image if America were to listen to only 37% of it’s population, 67% of that being from one party. Oh wait a minute! We’re already doing that!! And Jay just can’t seem to stop complaining about that either. Oh dear, what WILL make the JMan happy? Hmmmm, listening to only him maybe??
By Aja Brooks
April 14, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this
The only change I predict is rising gas prices, higher casualties, and more election b.s.!
By Skeptic Tank
April 14, 2008 3:08 PM | Link to this
It’s amazing that there are still right-wing ostriches out there who think that Iraq is an unqualified success. I guess it’s easier to yell out “lee-beral” than it is to admit a catastrophe authored by a Republican regime in Washington. At least you folks are the distinct minority in our country these days.
By T
April 14, 2008 3:24 PM | Link to this
What comes next is we withdraw (inevitable) and the Iraqis get to finish off their civil war, for which they have been preparing since the “surge.” What alternative do we have? Stay forever as Iraq’s permanent police force? And what if something else in the world requires our military intervention (Taiwan?)
Thanks, Jay, for keeping the focus where it belongs: on this disastrous war, and how to end it without destroying our country.
By 2U4U
April 14, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this
Dusty has a list of over 300 names of officers in our army who are communists….
Dont you just love the entertainment Dusty provides with her Mcarthy act? Are U a patriot? Not as much as me, terrorist.
Dusty is important to this blog because we need comic relief in our great national struggle for justice.