AJC > Sports > Hawks > Blog > Archives > 2009 > January > 29
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Numbers game
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
HAWKSVILLE - The first sight you see after stepping through the doors to the Hawks’ practice court this morning is Josh Smith at the free throw line with Mark Price advising (which as it turns out is the same way they finished practice).
Oh, the irony.
That’s what you’d expect the Hawks to do the morning after a dismal 17-for-32 showing at the free throw line derailed any chance they had at ending their latest losing streak, which stands at three games with the New Jersey Nets (the team that’s already handled the Hawks three times this year) up next Friday night at Philips Arena.
Smith needed the extra work as much as anyone. He has played better than anyone else on the roster the last three games, yet he’s stained that with his horrific work from the free throw line (5-for-18 in his last three games).
But to assume that the Hawks’ ONLY issue at this point is at the free throw line the Hawks rank would be as shortsighted as it is misguided (though it is a glaring one, since they rank 29th in the league in free throw shooting at .737, ahead of only Orlando at .723).
We’ve been over the laundry list the past few days (the excessive minutes Joe Johnson is playing, the strategic offensive and defensive shortcomings that have cropped up in each of these past three losses, the suddenly missing ball rotation and the refusal of anyone to help the guy next to him on the defensive end, etc.), and all of it helps make sense of this current three-game skid.
Yet there’s more.
In fact, I’ll point to one interesting statistical quirk that stunned me when I first heard about it and then read up on it a little more this morning on 82games.com (and if there’s better statistical analysis of the NBA anywhere, I haven’t seen it).
As of Jan. 26, the Hawks ranked first in the entire NBA in net points in the fourth quarter (+2.4) and fourth quarter winning percentage (63%), two sure signs of an accomplished team that has the pieces and parts to excel with the game on the line.
The teams behind them in fourth quarter net points are, in order, Cleveland, Portland, Orlando, New Orleans, Philadelphia, the Lakers, Utah, Charlotte and Phoenix.
The teams behind them in fourth quarter winning percentage - Dallas, New Orleans, Cleveland, Orlando, Portland, Philadelphia, Charlotte, New Jersey and Milwaukee.
On the flip side, the Hawks rank 20th in net points in the first quarter (-1) and 18th in first quarter winning percentage (44%), two more clear statistical indicators of the (mostly) elite in regards to teams that come out and establish themselves from the start and don’t waste time toying around and easing into anything.
The top 10 in first quarter net points - Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Houston, the Lakers, San Antonio, Detroit, Philadelphia, Toronto and New Orleans.
The top 10 in first quarter winning percentage - Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, Houston, the Lakers, Orlando, Detroit, San Antonio, Philadelphia and Phoenix.
Cross-reference the teams that pop up on the top 10 on either of the lists in both categories and you basically have the teams playing the best basketball in the league right now.
As much as I fight against that notion that something like the game of basketball could be reduced to things like this, sometimes it is all about the numbers.
