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Monday, June 30, 2008
Mythbusting!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
SMYRNA - Hurry up and wait.
That’s our charge until at least July 9, the first day teams can sign free agents.
Negotiations can begin at midnight (officially Tuesday, July 1). But nothing can be signed until the ninth (meaning we could still be watching this thing unfold well into late July).
But players and teams can agree to terms at any time during that eight-day moratorium on signing free agents.
The chances of the Hawks coming to terms with one or both of their free agents (Josh Smith and Josh Childress) don’t seem likely, for obvious reasons.
Let’s talk about what we do know:
Josh Smith is being targeted by Philadelphia with their $11 million-plus in available cap space. I know there is a small segment of people out there that think the Sixers might be using all this hype as a smokescreen and really be interested in making a sneak attack for Corey Maggette or even Elton Brand (if he does indeed opt out of his deal, we’ll know later today if he does or not). But Smith is the guy. And if the offer to Smith is frontloaded (think of the structure of the Hawks’ offer to Joe Johnson three years ago), things will get really complicated. The worst part is the Hawks had a 6-7, 235-pound cautionary tale on the roster in Johnson the last three years and still ignored it so they could dip their toes into the shark-infested waters this summer. It’s crazy.
Josh Childress is going to be the target of at least three different veteran-stocked playoff teams that are over the salary cap, meaning they’ll use their mid-level exception to try and steal him away while the Hawks are busy figuring out what they’ll do with Smith. The mid-level is expected to be anywhere from $5.8 to $6 million (we won’t know that exact figure until later either), so the chances of the Hawks matching an offer to Childress would appear to be extremely likely. But what seems logical and what actually happens during free agency don’t always match up.
You’re going to hear terms like Base Year Compensation (a stipulation in the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement that limits a player’s outgoing value to half their salary in a trade). But don’t be fooled by the details (BYC only impacts this situation if a sign-and-trade deal with a team over the salary cap comes into play), because they won’t apply in the first stage of this process.
The bottom line is this, the Hawks have the right of first refusal since both Smith and Childress are restricted free agents. So that means there are really only a few ways things can play out this summer. They are:
1) The Hawks can make an offer and come to terms with Smith and Childress and the process ends before it even starts (not likely on either front).
2) Smith and Childress sign offer sheets with other teams and the Hawks have seven days to match (the most realistic proposition for both, save for that frontloaded offer that could come from a team like Philly - a team capable of calling the Hawks’ bluff in a way the Hawks did not in the Joe Johnson situation three years ago).
3) All parties agree to a sign-and-trade deal with a third team (this happens only if negotiations get nasty and drawn out and is the toughest to do because everybody wants to “win” in this scenario).
Keep in mind that the minute an offer sheet is signed the options are limited. A sign-and-trade can’t be done with anyone until the Hawks either match the offer or let the player walk. If we are to believe what the Hawks have been saying since last fall, they’re going to match any offers that come their way. But I don’t think that will scare anyone away.
So now we hurry up and wait.
