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June 2007
Like it or love it? (Horford’s Law)
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
NEW YORK - I’m not passing out a draft grade today. It’s too soon.
But I have to admit that I like what was done last night. I don’t love it (a major trade for All-Star talent would have been worth loving). But I do like what was done. It wasn’t the risky, go-for-broke move that some other teams made (and could pay for shortly in so many ways). The Hawks stayed the course. They persevered in a major way (I know you Bushies love that kind of talk).
In both Al Horford and Acie Law the Hawks snagged the two guys at positions of glaring need that can see immediate minutes for them and help them contend for a playoff spot.
Was it a championship move? No. But when you’ve been out of the playoff picture for eight straight years, winning championships is two or three steps down the road from just getting back to respectability. The Hawks took a major step toward that goal with Horford and Law.
That said, there will have to be some serious discussions internally about what to do with all these forwards. And one of the veteran point guards has to go (Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson are in the final years of their contracts and could net something good in a trade).
But one of my major gripes about this team has finally been addressed. The Hawks have long had an imbalanced roster that prevented them from being able to develop the kind of roster chemistry that is vital to being a successful team. Horford presents a unique challenge if he’s not suited to play center (that remains a question) because the Hawks already have Josh Smith and Marvin Williams at the forward spots.
Depth, however, is a major concern for any team in eh NBA. And the Hawks did improve their depth dramatically with the addition of Horford, who is different than any of the Hawks’ other forward types in that he’s a true bruiser (Shelden Williams had that reputation but turned out to be much more of a finesse player than his college resume would have indicated).
The real wild card, though, is Law. His shooting ability and penchant for making big shots at the biggest moments could make him a true double-threat as a scoring point guard. He probably won’t facilitate the way Mike Conley Jr. will in Memphis. But he’s going to be trouble when he’s on the floor with Joe Johnson. And even if they play them in spurts, can you imagine the offensive firepower the Hawks will have when JJ, Salim Stoudamire and Law are on the floor together? It’ll be a fireworks show.
I don’t know that these two guys alone push the Hawks into the 45-win range (which I think will be the cutoff point for playoff consideration in the Eastern Conference). But these guys, coupled with a healthier roster and the natural improvement of the guys already on the roster finally gives the Hawks a legitimate chance to compete for that spot. And that’s something they simply weren’t equipped to do the past three years.
Let’s get it on …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
NEW YORK - The Hawks selected Florida power forward Al Horford with the No. 3 pick in Thursday night’s NBA draft, their six straight forward with a first round selection.
The “Let’s go Gators” chant started with about two minutes and 25 seconds left on the five-minute clock for the Hawks’ pick. Horford’s father Tito played to the crowd, waving a Domincan Republic flag to the crowd and the younger Horford got into the action himself, flashing the Gator Chomp to the fans as well.
The Hawks took Texas A&M point guard Acie Law with the 11th pick, snagging two experienced college players at positions of need. All the trade rumors that swirled around the Hawks before hte draft turned out to be just that, rumors.
When asked if there would be any more activity involving their draft picks Hawks general manager Billy Knight said both guys would “be with us for a long time.”
The room is spinning …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s virtually impossible to keep up with all the draft rumors flying around as the clock ticks down to Thursday night’s draft. But when has the impossible ever stopped us from chiming in?
(And speaking of the impossible, my mock draft was quite impossible because there aren’t enough teams crazy enough to pass on Conley. At least I hope there aren’t. He’s still my favorite cat in this draft for the Hawks and I’m not changing my mind. If I had the controls on Thursday night and could pick the guy I wanted to at No. 3, I’d take Conley. He has a chance to be a superstar with his package of skills, charisma and world class athleticism - not to mention he’s a winner and arguably the most impressive pound-for-pound specimen the draft has seen in a while. Again, if I were in charge of picking at No. 3, I’d take him without hesitating. I don’t believe in this “can’t take a little guy that high” nonsense that so many NBA types live by. I just don’t.)
Back to the rumors and assorted drama, and there is plenty, most of what has been tossed out there has either been discussed or is still being discussed.
A potential deal with Golden State - the main cogs being the 11th pick for Monta Ellis - is dead and gone, squashed by the Warriors from what I understand.
A potential deal with Seattle for my man Luke Ridnour - the 11th pick for Ridnour - is still out there. All the Hawks have to do is call and make it happen.
A rumored deal that involves swapping draft picks and a package of players with Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire - the most no-brainer deal of the century and one that was hinted at on the front of the AJC sports section a couple weeks back - is still a remote possibility. But most likely not going to happen in your lifetime (which is a kind way of saying never going to happen). Since the Suns have let several lottery prospects know that they are trading up into the top 10, guys have been flocking to Valley of the Sun for last minute workouts. So something has to be in the works. I’m just not certain it has anything to do with the Hawks, though a reliable contact in Phoenix said to keep an open mind on this one.
Any other potential deal you can think of, have read about or dream up in the next 24 seconds is a possibility only because the last 24 hours before a deep draft is easily the most schizophrenic time of the year for all 29 of the teams that didn’t win the NBA title. Everyone is desperate to get better. Everyone wants to be a part of whatever is going down. And everyone wants to fleece someone else in the process. So the foolish and totally impossible, if only for a day or two, becomes possible (even if it’s only in the minds of the guys making the decisions for all those teams).
The dilemma for the Hawks is the same one I wrote about after the draft lottery. Do they use these picks as leverage to get immediate help or roll with their scouts and basketball people and finally work some draft magic that helps get them off the NBA scrap heap and back into the postseason?
You can’t take a sucker’s deal if you choose the first option. And you better have done your research and be sure about your decisions if you choose the latter.
I know it seems like the room is spinning right about now. But isn’t this what everyone wanted anyway - the possibility of something huge taking place on draft night?
DREAMing!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Our entire focus seems to be on Thursday night’s draft, as it should be. Al Horford and Mike Conley Jr. are making their stops through town today (workouts that will be reported on by ya boy Blog Z - yeah, after a few weeks of craziness he’s back - in this space and in the paper a little later), giving us all a little more to think about before we head into the final hours before draft night.
I don’t know about you, but I can’t remember being this anxious about any draft. I mean, we’ve always got our own ideas about what might happen. But seriously, I can’t remember stressing my brain like this in regards to a draft in years. It’s probably not healthy to have gotten this wrapped up in something we’ll have no control over … whatever, that’s never stopped anyone before.
But while we’ve been eyeballing these workouts, rumors and all other things draft, guys already under contract have been putting in work. Folks have picked on Josh Smith around here (and elsewhere) for his attitude and other perceived shortcomings. And he’s wisely ignoring his haters and going about the business of improving his game. He’s been in Houston going through NBA summer school with Hakeem “The Dream” Olajuwon as his sensei (me thinks young fella will have a few new post moves to unleash the next time we see him in game action). Smith is also working with Calvin Murphy to refine his outside game (we can only hope that pirated copies of this workout footage finds its way to youtube). And Smith is doing it all on his own, not at the behest of the Hawks or anyone else (which I think speaks volumes about how serious he is taking his development).
He’s without a doubt the Hawks’ most pressing offseason issue (draft included), because his immediate future will impact the Hawks’ bottom line (financially and in the win-loss column in 2007-08) more than anyone not named Joe Johnson. That’s why it is so important that he do exactly what he’s been doing with his summer. Players that don’t come back with a new wrinkle to their game from one season to the next will get abused by the guys that do.
After we finish up the draft and move into the free agency/summer league phase of the offseason, I’m planning on finding my way into at least one of these summer school sessions in Houston with a larger story planned on the “Under Construction” portion of Smith’s fourth year progression (he’s working with arguably the league’s greatest low-post technician of all time people). I’m also trying to dig up information on other guys, too. Because I know he’s not the only Hawk in the lab. Other guys are putting in the work as well.
And that’s one of the reasons why I have to temper my energy and enthusiasm regarding the draft. I think it’s natural for us all to get carried away with the this stuff since we roughly a month after the draft lottery to work ourselves into a frenzy regarding these prospects. Guys like Smith, though, will have to do the heavy lifting next season if the Hawks have any chance of ending their playoff drought at eight years.
I’m not suggesting we ignore the next 72 hours of draft hysteria. Not even close. I’m only suggesting that we try and put this stuff in its proper perspective. All that preaching aside, make sure you come back here Monday evening for my thoughts on Horford and Conley (hey, I’m not crazy. I know the draft pays the bills this time of year).
Do you see what I see (nothing)?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Since the media is not allowed inside the Hawks’ player workouts, we’ll have to rely on my spies to give us the lowdown on who did what.
The word coming out of today’s point guard session was that all three guys - Acie Law, Javaris Crittenton and Jamon Gordon - were impressive. They all looked like they were a bit tired of the process (all of them are working on multiple workouts, so the quality of play didn’t match the oversized effort).
My spies told me that they didn’t go up against each enough to really give observers any indication as to who might have a particular advantage over the other in any specific area.
That’s the unfortunate aspect of these workouts that I think is lost on most people (and yes, I’ve been allowed in workouts before, just not this time around with the Hawks - per club policy). But I’ll get back to complaining after I relay what my spies said about the workout.
According to my spies, Crittenton looked the most physically impressive (as expected) but that Law was no slouch in that department and clearly appeared to be the most advanced offensive player (again, no surprise there). Yet Gordon was the most tenacious defender and the most pleasantly surprising of the three (as should have been expected since he isn’t as highly regarded as his workout partners). Another spy said there was basically no difference between the three guys (he actually ranked Gordon and Crittenton ahead of Law, and reiterated that Gordon stood as much or more than anyone), though the upside for Crittenton is hard to ignore.
The reviews of Brandan Wright were as expected - “dude is 200 pounds soaking wet but caught everything at or above the square [on the backboard] during drills. I can see the athleticism but he’s a long way from being able to help this team do what they need to in the paint.”
Now back to my griping about the system.
Other than checking out a guy’s true height and physical stature (and how much crap he’s willing and able to put up with from your coaching staff during the workout), these things are more about putting on show than they are about anything else.
Because if anyone involved in this entire process was serious about finding out who really wants to get after it, all the top prospects would be working out at the predraft camp in that kill or be killed meat market where the feeble are tossed aside and only the grimiest cats survive.
It’s just a thought, this idea of changing the process. But not something I expect to happen anytime soon, certainly not in my time dealing with the NBA, because the current system allows for the manipulation of the situation by all involved to serve their own interests.
Still, how sweet would it be to have all the guys the Hawks have scheduled for workouts split up into two or three teams and working out over say two or three days in every way imaginable? You’d be able to make some well-informed decisions after watching guys in that setting.
In the meantime, we’ll have to rely on my spies.
Don’t know what to do …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Before I forget, Happy Father’s Day to you all. Hope you enjoyed your one day of amnesty. Ha.
I’ll keep this brief since this week will be filled with workouts and such. But I can’t help but think that as we get closer to the draft the chances of the Hawks moving one of these picks becomes greater.
There’s going to be tons of teams pressing to move up in this draft (and several teams pressing to find their way into the draft, period). I’m still flip-flopping on the idea of moving one of the picks.
My gut tells me the Hawks should make their picks and use trades to fill in the holes. I just don’t like the idea of trading away these picks with a draft filled with this many intriguing prospects. I don’t agree that this draft is flush with franchise talent. But I do believe that there are quality players to be had up and down the board.
I’m going to sleep on it one more night and then wake up in the morning and try and make sense of this stuff one more time before hashing out my latest game plan for June 28.
Because right now, I’m not afraid to admit that I have no idea what I would do with those two picks.
Workout time!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Finally, we’re getting out of the guessing stage and into the observation stage. The Hawks have a flurry of workouts scheduled for next week, several group workouts that should be quite revealing for the Hawks (no, the media will not be allowed inside for the entire session. So we’ll have to work our sources to find out who did what).
I have to admit, I’m not as big a believer in these individual workouts being all that telling, particularly if they’re done without the added dose of competition.
Years ago I snuck off from the Chicago predraft camp with several NBA types to watch the workout of Pavel Podkolzine, the 7-4 Russian giant that had intrigued international scouts for years. He put on a one-man show that had as many as 300 people (including I remember just about every GM you could imagine) in awe.
People walked out of the place shaking their heads, thinking this guy is the future of big men. He was flying up and down the floor and finishing at the rim with authority. He showed off a nice outside stroke and even handled the ball decently for a man his size. I was believing the hype by the end of the workout, too, it didn’t matte that he was doing all this against imaginary defenders. “How could anybody not use a lottery pick on this dude,” I said to another reporter that was with me. “He’s a 300-pound nightmare for the NBA. He’s going to be a star.”
An executive in Indiana (I was working in Indy back then) tried to talk me off that ledge on the spot. “Calm down young fella,” he said. “Don’t let this workout fool you. This kid can’t play in the NBA. He’s terrible.” But I wasn’t having any of that. I know what my eyes told me. So two days after the camp buzz had ended and your senses have calmed down a bit, that executive invited me into his office to watch some game tape of Pavel so I could make a more informed assessment of his NBA prospects.
He turned it on and tons of little guys were flying around the floor and some 15 seconds later (it might have been half that but it seemed like 15 seconds) my man Pavel came lumbering into the frame. The rest of the game was moving around him at warp speed and the Bear was moving in that Matrix slow motion. It was awful. But the point was made. You need more than a one-hour workout to make an informed opinion about whether or not a guy can give you what you need. (Pavel ended up backing out of the draft that year because of a medical issue, came back later and was drafted late in the first round, the Mavs traded for him and he never found his niche and is now back in Europe).
The moral to that long, rambling story is this: do you homework before just assuming that an initial impression or a glitzy workout tells you everything you need to know. That’s why teams spend all the time they do scouting players the way they do. (Now they just have to make sure that the ultimate decision makers - be it the GM, owners or whoever) listen to the people whose livelihood depends on making good assessments of these players.
Good grief, I said all of that and forgot my main reason for weighing in today. I’ve managed to scramble up some names and dates for workouts next week that should prove interesting (things could change, from what I understand, but as of now this is what the Hawks’ workout slate looks like):
Wednesday, June 20 Acie Law, Javaris Crittenton and Jamon Gordon will work out in a point guard party that morning. Brandan Wright is set for a solo session in the afternoon.
Friday, June 22 Joakim Noah is slated for a solo session that morning.
Saturday, June 23 Rodney Stuckey is slated for a solo session that morning.
Monday, June 25 Al Horford is slated for a solo session in the morning followed by Mike Conley Jr. in a solo session in the afternoon.
Slow Down …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Had the iPod pumping during my workout Saturday (come on now, I only do 40 minutes of brisk walking these days baby, nothing more and nothing less) and a song popped up on shuffle that hit me between the eyes.
You old school hip-hop heads out there remember Brand Nubian don’t you? Slow Down was the joint back in’90 (yeah, we’re all getting older). It’s a fitting tune for the mood I’ve been in the past few days.
I realized that we’ve all been going 1,000 miles an hour on what the Hawks might do with their picks (if they keep them) or in the draft and they haven’t even held an official workout yet (that starts the week of the 20th, but I don’t expect any real fireworks with Yi Jianlian not making his way to town for a close up and none of the major position players working out at the same time).
Maybe we do need to slow down and try and analyze this thing one more time before deciding who fits best and who does not with what the Hawks already have.
A wise (GM I know and respect) told me as much today. He also said that whatever player the Hawks could get in the draft won’t show up prepared to lead them. It’s just not realistic for rookies not named Magic or LeBron. And I understand where he’s coming from in that regard. We’re all probably expecting the best case scenario (rookie shows up, turns in one of the all-time great first year performances from a first timer and the Hawks roll deep into the playoffs) when the status quo (rookie shows up and struggles a bit early before coming into his own later in the year and becoming a key contributor on a still improving team) is much more likely.
Last week I asked another GM I know and respect what he’d do with the 3 and 11 and he didn’t hesitate with his response (Horford at 3 and Law at 11). The two guys widely regarded as the most NBA ready at their positions - makes good sense to me. Yet few people are even convinced that these are definitely the two guys that make the most sense for the Hawks.
I’m not at all ashamed to admit that I’m a bit stumped now as to what plan of action is the best. Two weeks ago I was convinced that the Hawks (if keeping the picks) should go PG at No. 3 to make sure they got the guy they wanted, because he’ll be gone at 11 and the best available big man at No. 11. As of right now, I’m not so sure what the shrewdest move(s) would be.
So I’m going to take the advice Grand Puba, Sadat X and my main man Lord Jamar and think hard over the next couple of days before diving back into this trivial pursuit we’ve all come to love.
Like Gnarls Barkley said … Crazy!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I wish Seattle would pass on Kevin Durant.
I dare them to make the blunder that would be send Hawks officials scrambling for their party hats.
Are you kidding me?
Dude is the consensus college player of the year and you’re going to pass on him for Yi Jianlian?
Not in this lifetime.
I don’t care what the predraft numbers said. Kevin Durant is No. 2 in this draft (nothing will change my mind about Greg Oden being the top dog. NOTHING).
Forget about Durant’s slender frame and the fact that his weight lifting numbers weren’t any better than Gabriel Alexander Smith’s (that’s my 8-year-old son who is bound for a football scholarship at Michigan in 2017). I can get over him not being He-Man right now so long as his jump shot still works.
Seriously, put down the crazy juice people and recognize what’s going on here. Yi’s buzz is reminiscent of the hype that followed Darko Milicic into the draft that year the Pistons snagged him ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade - yes, that *&$# really happened. Darko’s a nice player. But those other guys are stars. In fact, they are All-Stars. I said All-Stars man. Darko’s not even a starter yet (Tony Battie held down that job for Orlando this season).
This idea that an international teenager is any more ready for the NBA than a homegrown teenager simply hasn’t been backed up by past results. I think Yi has a chance to be pretty good. Durant has a chance to be great. Big difference. Huge.
And if anyone in Seattle is loony enough to gift-wrap Durant to Atlanta by taking Yi (or anyone else in this draft) at No. 2, it’s time for Hawks fans to party.
Sorry my five trade scenarios took so long to make it online. But now that they’re here, go ahead and tell me how crazy I am.
California Luv!
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After speaking to several well-placed sources over the past 48 hours Blog-Z has learned a few things that the Hawks have going on now and in the coming weeks:
A large contingent representing the Hawks (including front office folks, coaches, scouts and several players) have either already made it to Los Angeles or are en route to watch Chinese 7-footer Yi Jianlian work out. From what I’ve gathered it’s a closed session (for media hounds and fans, of course) that will give those in attendance a personal showcase of the draft’s remaining mystery player. Some of those same sources I’ve talked to have seen Yi in person already and claim that he’s a sight to behold. So I’m expecting rave reviews after his controlled work out (those things are usually designed to make the prospect look like a million bucks). This dude is the wild card for the Hawks. If he blows everybody away, he could easily become the frontrunner for the No. 3 pick (whether he makes sense or not). That said, several of the people I talked to are still convinced the Hawks are going to trade one (and in some cases both) of those picks for veteran help, which could complicate this entire mess even more. - And my trade scenarios deal I teased Monday has been pushed back to the weekend, sorry for the premature hype but it’s not my call as to when that stuff hits the papers or ajc.com.
The Hawks’ workout schedule for players at Philips Arena won’t begin for a few weeks, with the first blip coming on June 20. That’s right around when the Hawks have begun workouts the past two years, choosing to schedule their big workouts for the days leading up to the draft (in an effort, I assume, to have fresh opinions on the players they’re considering).
These rumors about the Hawks already deciding on Brandan Wright and Javaris Crittenton as their selections for the No. 3 and 11 picks in the June 28 draft are worthless assumptions based on the posturing that goes on relentlessly during this time of year. No decisions have been made yet, and certainly nothing close to the early decision last year to select Shelden Williams with the fifth pick in the draft, regardless of who was still on the board (um, Brandon Roy).
Since were all family here, it’s best I share yet another tidbit learned while working the phones. One of the hot rumors floating around is that the Charlotte Bobcats might be interested in snagging another point guard from this year’s draft class (sources say the Bobcats love Ray Felton but fear he isn’t the distributor they need if they’re going to take the next step). That would seriously change the landscape for the Hawks at No. 11 if they choose to go big with their first pick and gamble on the point guard they want being available at No. 11.
Finally, I notice how the opinions of certain players have changed dramatically after dissecting the measurements and testing results from the predraft camp. Anything those numbers told you that your eyes hadn’t already isn’t worth going into here (legit 7-footers are as hard to come by as quality point guards with the type of size and skill that translate into a quick transition to NBA stardom). They are but a (small yet significant) factor in this whole puzzle of what guy(s) best fit in the Hawks’ future plans.
Boobie Trap (and the dumbest thing I’ve heard)
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’m here to offer props to Daniel “Boobie” Gibson, who did in 30 minutes what the rest of the Eastern Conference (not named Dwyane Wade) couldn’t do in five years - slay the Detroit Pistons and reopen the race for the rest of the conference.
I remember last year when his stock took a dive and people called him insane for declaring for the NBA draft after just his second year at Texas. I remember someone telling me that the rest of the league was making a mistake in assuming he was damaged goods or that couldn’t play (as if somehow you can go from the preseason top-point guard prospect in the nation to falling out of the first round without good reason).
The person that made those statements to me works for the Cleveland Cavaliers. And kudos to him for not drinking whatever Kool-Aid was passed out on Gibson before the draft and snatched him up anyway. I know LeBron is the main reason the Cavs are preparing for San Antonio and the NBA Finals (and a potential back-cracking at the hands of the Big Fundamental and his boys). But there’s something to be said for doing your own homework and sticking to what you believe rather than following the crowd.
Which brings me to the next topic I wanted to attack, and let me say it’s one of the most ridiculous things I’ve seen make the rounds here or anywhere else in all the years I’ve been in this business.
Some dope somewhere started a rumor about Josh Smith being on the trading block now that the Hawks have a couple of lottery picks and could be in position to “replace” him with the likes of Brandan Wright or Al Horford (or one of the other forward types in this draft).
Um, on a stupid scale ranging from 1 to 10, with 10 being stupid beyond reason, I’d say that’s close to 1,000. Let’s just do the math. Last I checked Josh Smith will make roughly $1.4 million for the 2007-08 season, making him arguably the NBA’s best bargain (when you consider his production). He won’t make as much money as the No. 3 or No. 11 pick this season. Did you hear me? This guy is the best bargain in the league.
Once you factor in that he’s a hometown kid, arguably the Hawks’ most recognizable face and box office draw (for whatever that’s worth), one of the league’s top two shot blockers at 21 and still has a ceiling that he’s nowhere close to touching as of yet, the idea of trading Smith now or anytime soon remains the absolute dumbest idea I’ve heard since … how about forever.
Does he have some quirks in his personality that need to be worked out? Sure. Does he need to mature and develop some post moves (so he’ll stop leaning on an outside shot that is streaky at best)? Absolutely.
But if you think there’s a player available in this draft besides Greg Oden that can provide as much bang for the buck as Smith will this season, you need to grab a roll of Bounty and clean off your Coke bottle glasses. Seriously, get the idea of Josh Smith being traded completely out of your mind. It’s foolishness and should not be discussed seriously beyond right now.
In addition to all that, the Hawks have other tradable assets that they can utilize if they are bent on making a deal for the draft (check Tuesday’s paper for five fantastic deals the Hawks could do to make the most of June 28). Parting ways with one of their best pick ups of the Atlanta Spirit regime is not the way to go people.
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