AJC > Sports > Hawks > Blog > Archives > 2007 > April > 11 > Entry

One down, one to go?

We’ve been discussing it for weeks, all under the general assumption that the June draft would include both Greg Oden and Kevin Durant.

But it wasn’t until Tuesday afternoon that we were assured of at least one of them being a part of the process.

Durant’s in. And I think we all agree that he raised the level of this, or any, draft with his presence alone. But now we need the other guy to jump in.

I don’t have any clue, which way Oden is leaning (I know if I was in his camp I’d have encouraged him to declare already and end the foolishness). What is clear is that a draft with one and not both of them is good. A draft with the two of them is one for the ages.

But what happens if Oden decides to go back to Ohio State? That changes the entire situation for every team trying to lose its way to into the top two of the draft.

I’ve honestly never contemplated my second choice if we have one and not the other. It’s always been predicated on the both of them being available, with Oden being the No. 1 player on my board and Durant 1A.

Don’t ask me why this popped into my head on the drive downtown this morning. I just started worrying about it, thinking that Oden’s delay in making a public announcement could mean that he’s perhaps thinking about a return to Columbus or it could just mean the big fella is doing things on his own time table (I wish I knew exactly what was going on).

Along that same path, I’ve continued to read more of the fire and brimstone about Durant (who is a fantastic player, no doubt) being the best offensive player to enter the NBA draft in the past 20 years. Huh? I keep wondering if I’ve watched the same guy.

That’s a humongous statement. Huge. And one I’m not ready to sign off on until I study the last 20 years and remind myself of all the accomplished offensive players that have entered the draft the past two decades.

Seriously, have I missed something in Durant’s game that I should have seen?

Anyway, I think it’s time we started shifting our conversation to the draft and the draft lottery, which at this point constitute the only real intriguing issues relating to the Hawks (with four games left, you just hope they don’t suffer any more serious injuries and that people chill on the mass cuss outs).

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Comments

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 2:37 PM | Link to this

Sekou What Durant may be is Kevin Mchale with an unstoppable jump shot.I don’t know if he’s strong enough to step in and be a graet player,but if and when the day comes that his strength and endurance match his gifts and skill…look out !!!!!

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 2:44 PM | Link to this

I’ll add this,what I’m sure of is Durant’s jumper has the best combination of length,high release,quickness,and pure shooting of any I can remember. That alone could make him very special.

By JJ

April 11, 2007 2:45 PM | Link to this

I think they mean that durant is the most complete than anybody in 20 years. which i know is not true. I will be comparing his rookie season to carmelo’s rookie season to figure that out.

By JJ

April 11, 2007 2:47 PM | Link to this

Hawks need to lose

By Matt

April 11, 2007 2:54 PM | Link to this

I’ll repeat what I said earlier before calling it a day (keep in mind that this is all predicated on Oden declaring)…

I think that unless lightning strikes and the Pacers get into the top 3, that Harrington trade will be looking pretty good. It looks like Indiana will finish somewhere b/w 11 (assuming they win at least 2 of their remaining games) and 14.

Here are the things I could see happening assuming we keep the Indy pick:

  • If the Hawks strike gold and get the #1 choice (or the #2 choice and a team that wants Durant getting the #1), use that pick on Oden. If Conley comes out, package our Indiana pick along with Childress (who is, I think, the odd swingman out) to ensure that we can pick Conley. If Conley doesn’t come out, use that pick on Acie Law, and deal away Childress and Tyronn (I hate to see him go, but he and Acie have similar skill sets, and having them both would do no one any good). But can you imagine if we got both members of the dynamic duo from Ohio State?

  • If the Hawks get #2 and the #1 wants Oden…I have mixed feelings. True, the last thing we need is another combo forward, but Durant might be just too good to pass up. I mean, think of the matchup nightmares we’d create with Durant, JJ and either JSmoove or Marvin. On the other hand, we might package our Indy pick and Childress to move up to #1 and make sure we can get Oden, though I doubt many teams will be willing to take that trade.

  • If we get the #3, I think we might try to work out a 3-way trade to get 2 picks in the 5-10 range and take both Hibbert and Conley. If we can’t do that (or if Conley doesn’t declare), we just find a way to land Hibbert and a future pick, and use the latter pick on Acie Law.

  • If we lose our pick to Phoenix, I think we try to trade up to get Hibbert rather than use our latter pick on Law, simply because top big men are slightly harder to find than top PGs, and I think that we might be able to coax Billups here (or perhaps trade for a purer PG) if we could promise that he’d be playing on the same court as JJ, JSmoove, Marvin, and Hibbert - a very solid starting 5.

My underlying reasoning on all this is that much as I love Childress, he just doesn’t have the ceiling that JSmoove and Marvin have. One of our swingmen has to go, and I think that Childress has to be the odd man out, although I have no doubt that he’ll have a great NBA career after he’s moved on.

I also am not sold that Acie Law is really a true PG. He reminds me a lot of Nick Van Exel or Chauncey Billups - shoot-first PG’s with a nice midrange jumper, great ballhanding skills, and good court vision, but slightly lacking in 3 key areas: Being a true floor general who makes his teammates better, having an explosive first step to get past an opponent, and being a stopper on D.

I don’t think Law would be bad, but I’d rather see us trade up for Conley or Hibbert than get him.

By smartguy

April 11, 2007 2:57 PM | Link to this

It won’t matter who we get if we still have the same coach.

By mavid

April 11, 2007 3:03 PM | Link to this

From Bill Simmon’s article on how to solve then tanking problem:

  1. Contract the league to 27 teams and dump Memphis, Charlotte and Atlanta, three cities that can’t support NBA basketball and never could. Then we’ll have a league-wide lottery to determine positioning for the dispersal draft of players from those three teams. (Note: We’ve already sedated Chad Ford just in case this happens.) And if a contender like Chicago happens to end up with Pau Gasol … I think we’ll manage.

There is more, but I just wanted to paste this part.

Can ATL never support an NBA franchise? I always thought that if we ever became competitive, the city would flock to us as has been the case with the falcons (who also had problems attracting the ATL market until recently)

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 3:04 PM | Link to this

Matt the Oden thing would be the dream scenario.Conley is an interesting guy,he could be very good.I also like Law,but I’m not on board with Hibbert he looks too slow to be a real player in the league to me.Every year teams buy into 7 footers who just can’t keep up in the modern game,I think Hibbert will be another case.

By JimmyF24

April 11, 2007 3:05 PM | Link to this

Durant may be one of the best basketball players for his age that I have ever seen. Saw him play many games this year including twice at MSG at the beginning of the year and as a freshman playing in his 5 or 6 game at the time had everything facet of a great basketball player that you want. Shoots high and quick, can take you off the dribble once you respect his shot, tip slam due to his leaping ability, throw it down in your grill, handle the ball, and post up. This is just offensively, the guy makes blocks, and steals, and hustles non-stop. True basketball player with a lot of vintage NBA style. One game that stands out was the 3OT game against Oklahoma St. where he hit every single big shot of that game. Not only did he score 35 and grab 16 or something like that, he also nailed threes at crucial points of the game. If the HAWKS get 1 or 2 I would not be inclined to just use it on trade bait, pending Odens decision. Trade Marvin, Lue and some other stragglers and keep Durant. Billups,JJ,Durant,Smith, and anybody else. THATS LEGIT

By mavid

April 11, 2007 3:42 PM | Link to this

This was an interesting tidbit posted at hawksquawk.com, that I felt would be informative here too (thanks to the dude who posted it over there)

Now that its pretty certain we have the 4th spot:

“the probability of us getting the number one pick if we stay at four is 12%

the probability of us getting the number two pick if we stay at four is 12.7%

the probability of us getting the number three pick if we stay at four is 13.41%

the probability we stay at four is 10%

the probability we drop to the five or six spot is 51.89%

to recap, the chance we move up in the draft is 38.11%, the chance we stay at four is 10%, and the chance we drop is 51.89%. and if history is any indicator, we are going to be handing that pick over to phoenix.

2006-2007 Atlanta ???

2005-2006 Atlanta (loss tie-breaker with Charlotte) 5th

2004-2005 Utah 6th

2003-2004 LA Clippers 2nd

2002-2003 Miami (25-57) 5th

2001-2002 Denver (27-55) 5th

2000-2001 Vancouver (23-59) 6th

1999-2000 Vancouver (22-60) 2nd

1998-1999 Denver (14-36) Traded pick to Toronto 5th

1997-1998 Golden State (19-63) 5th

1996-1997 Denver (21-61) 5th

1995-1996 Milwaukee (25-57) 4th

since 1996 when the new rules were implemented the number 4 team has moved up 2 times, stayed at four 1 time and moved down 8 times.”

By jhan

April 11, 2007 3:45 PM | Link to this

This town would support even a mediocre NBA franchise tremendously. There are so many basketball junkies around that if the team was actually a winner, attendance would be outstanding.

This is solely dependent on the ownership situation. Have some owners who are dedicated to fielding a championship caliber team & see what happens. The new owners must be willing (able) to spend the money!

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 3:56 PM | Link to this

Interesting stuff Mavid,but in the world of stats the sample is small.Still the number of times the four has droped to five is a little odd.Think of drawing cards you might draw five strait face cards but if you draw 1000 times(increase the sample size) the odds will even out to where they should.So do the numbers above mean much ? I’d have to see the real mathematical probability chart to know.

By mavid

April 11, 2007 4:07 PM | Link to this

yeah, i mean, the past instances don’t really matter, all that matters it the numbers themselves.

Basically, all that matters is the 38% chance we have to move up.

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 4:16 PM | Link to this

Got you Mavil the 38% is the real math,thank’s for that,I’m a little slow on the uptake sometimes.

By Matt P

April 11, 2007 4:21 PM | Link to this

The dream scenario is obviously getting the #1 and #11 and taking Oden and Conley (assuming they both come out, but Conley really sounds like he wants to come back). Imagine that team: Conley, JJ, Marvin, JSmith, and Oden. Keep around Lue, Childress, Zaza, and Solomen Jones on the bench. That team would have home-court advantage in at least the first round next year. If they don’t end up getting Oden, but do get the #3, I say they take Horford in a heartbeat. He’s a big body and a true low-post threat. The last thing the Hawks need is another young, unproven swingman, which is exactly what Durant is regardless of how good people think he’ll be. If Conley comes out, that’s the one player they should do everything in their power to get. He’s a better Chris Paul at the same stage of their careers. And I think we all know where we’d be if we’d drafted Paul.

By Melvin

April 11, 2007 4:25 PM | Link to this

Durant game seems similiar to Donyell Marshall. Donyell was the complete package when he was drafted out of UConn and before he signed a NBA contract. I think Durant has a better post game and seems to play with more heart than Donyell but their physique looks similiar.

By doc

April 11, 2007 4:29 PM | Link to this

why talk about the draft now? let us see what is actually going to come down. that doesnt happpen until the ping pong balls fall. that is a six week wait, can we hold onto this effort at pure speculation that long?

i guess an even better speculative quetion is not if we get no. 1 or 2 but what if we get number three? is there a definitve guy at that spot? even if it isnt the hawks, who will that be? that is where the rubber meets the road for a gm, the first two are gimmies.

i guess if we dont go no. 1-3 then who is it at the expected 11- 14 spot, god forbid the pacers pulling a three of of the hat and we end up with the four ball? will conley, acie or hibbert be available then to make a try at one of those guys who might be the answer to one of the severe needs?

if only we had gotten roy last year this would be easier as there would be a quality guy to trade up with and probably go after the richard guy in the middle of the pack if you had to hold ‘em; who is what sheldon is supposed to be. if only bk had read this blog how much better off we would be. ownership wouldnt have to pay for those european scouting trips or the scouts for that matter. we know what is best.

By mavid

April 11, 2007 4:29 PM | Link to this

yeah, i think we may need to try and trade up with the INDY pick to get conley

By jj

April 11, 2007 4:33 PM | Link to this

i don’t think conley is coming out. not the way he is talking

By vdunkndunk

April 11, 2007 4:34 PM | Link to this

Sekou, I agree with you on Durant. He’s good, but is he THAT good? Best offensive player in the last 20 years? That really is a humongous statement.

I mean, are people trying to say that Lebron wouldn’t have done just as well in college as Durant did? Personally, I think what Lebron did as a rookie in the NBA was more impressive than what Durant did as a freshman in college, and I highly doubt that Durant will have as good a rookie season in the NBA as Lebron did, even with the extra year of preparation that he got.

I think people may be getting slightly overexcited about Durant just because this is one of the first times in a while that we’ve seen one of the truly elite NBA prospects play college ball.

I still think he’s a great prospect, a once in every 2 or 3 years kind of prospect, but guys like Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady and Lebron James would probably have done something similar to what Durant has done if they were featured scorers on a young team like Durant was.

Now, if you’re even being compared to KG and Kobe and those guys, that’s pretty good. And I think Durant has a legit chance to be good enough to warrant those kinds of comparisons. But I’m not sure he’ll be appreciably better than any of those guys, because it’s hard enough just to get to that level, much less surpass it.

By sammy miller

April 11, 2007 4:35 PM | Link to this

Anybody know if its possible for the hawks to draft that crazy cat Sam out of Cummings GA!

By Anakin Joe

April 11, 2007 4:36 PM | Link to this

Personally, I’m more focused on the Indy pick as that seems to be more stable. I know Sekou says that teams don’t tank, but players do take the rest of the season off with even the slightest injury. We have to hope that Indy’s best players continue to play, as we do not want them to drop below the 11th worse record. Right now, they sit at #12. Fortunately, Philly, who is right behind them, may have Iggy miss most if not all of the remainder of the season. With a #11 or #12 pick and surplus players, we should be able to move up and grab a player of need. I agree with Matt about Conley and Hibbert as guys to go after outside of the top 2. And while I would likely trade down from #3, I really do like Horford. He’s a pure PF, potentially Amare-lite. Noah scares me. Hibbert may be more in the mode of Ilgauskas or he could be Yao-lite. If we ever got smart enough to run the Princeton offense with our collection of above average passers and slashers, he would be the ideal center for that offense.

By Edo River

April 11, 2007 4:41 PM | Link to this

Is this the same situation that we had in drafting Marvin? it will take 3 years for the player to begin showing potential and by that time the team that drafts Durant won’t be able to afford to keep him—-I say this because like Marvin Williams on our team I dont think Durant is going to step in and be a hero the first year. I think it will take several years.

By Boomer

April 11, 2007 4:57 PM | Link to this

Billy Knight is as effective at building and running an NBA team as I am effective at bringing about world peace and a cure for cancer. How does this walking abortion still have a freakin’ job?

By Ken Strickland

April 11, 2007 5:02 PM | Link to this

Durant’s thin frame, quick shot, quick jumping ability, and overall OFF game, reminds me of Big Bad Bob MacAdoo. I see him playing PF as a pro, unless he’s goes to a team like Phoenix. Just suppose the Hawks get really lucky and drafted him. I would put JSmith at C, pickup a quality PG, and play the Suns style of ball, with Durant at PF. I know, it’s just a dream, but it would be really exciting, wouldn’t it.

By Boomer

April 11, 2007 5:04 PM | Link to this

The Durant hype is just that. It’s human nature to call the latest best thing the best ever, just like you calling an Oden, Durant draft “one for the ages.” Thing is, you never know. ‘83 was “one for the ages” too, but look how many of those hyped talents flopped or even died.

Ever hear of Kobe, Shaq, Garnett, etc.? I believe they all entered the league within the past 20 years. There are at least a half dozen other Durant equals I’m not thinking of.

By Anakin Joe

April 11, 2007 5:21 PM | Link to this

Boomer, no one is saying that Durant is better than Kobe, KG or Shaq. Just that his offensive skills are more well-defined entering the league than guys like Kobe, Shaq and KG. And that may be true. The only other guy I can think of was Allen Iversen and of course, people questioned his ability to play effectively at his size. Most guys either can’t score from deep or need to improve their ability to score off the dribble. He has come close to mastering those aspects of the offensive game already. I’m not ready to concede the best offensive skills in 20 years comment, but I’m guessing he is certainly in the top 3.

By doc

April 11, 2007 5:27 PM | Link to this

aj, i dont breathe as easily as you in the pacer watch. they are now at the 12 spot with 18 teams now well above them and few chances to move up into the playoffs standing two games behind orlando.

frighteningly i look at the standings and see that there are five teams that could win and push ahead of them, those being only 2 games back as well. the integrity of the game and the league will be tested possibly as the hawks finish against the pacers and could be all that stands in the way of the pacers falling further down to the sacred 10th spot. the hawks could assure the pacers stay where they are at say 11 by losing out right on the last night of the season. the lottery system was to keep this stuff from happening but what the league needs to really look at are these silly conditional trades that involve draft picks and the protection of same. there is no way to assure the integrity of the game as long as those continue. the lottery doesnt stop this from occurring and it is just as shameful. at some point they have to look at this isssue as we fans see how really disingenuous this really is.

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 5:42 PM | Link to this

Ken Strickland Smith at center ? that may be the strangest suggestion I’ve seen.His best position is SF not even PF let alone center.The only somewhat effective center on the roster is Zaza.I know he’s soft compared to the best centers but in the modern game with the right players and coach he can give us low post scoring and length.

By smartguy

April 11, 2007 5:49 PM | Link to this

Spencer Hawes may be a great choice with the Indy pick (may have to move up a little). Seven footer with an outstanding offensive game; they say his offense is the equivalent of Oden’s defense. May not play great defense, but thats Smooth’s job in the first place.

In the 88% chance we don’t get Oden at #1, this Hawes guy may be a great big man for us.

By Paul Hamilton

April 11, 2007 5:49 PM | Link to this

He definitely is a big man that can step away from the basket and drill it, but a stiff wind could blow him over. I mean him and Oden aren’t really in the same category. I see Oden as a Shaq type guy, and Durant as more a Dirk N. type. Durant needs to add some serious weight if he is planning on patrolling the paint as a center.

By Matt

April 11, 2007 5:57 PM | Link to this

Doc,

Do you really think that Indy is gonna tank with 5 games to go when they’re just 2 games out of a playoff spot? They’re playing Milwaukee tonight, which is the only team that I think is really tanking on purpose. If they can win that game and one other, then they pretty much put themselves out of reach of any of the teams standing at 32 wins.

And even if Indy only wins 1 of their remaining games, the teams with 32 wins would have to win 3 of their remaining 4-5 games in order to even tie Indy.

Basically, 2 teams have to pass Indy in order for them to push Indy below #11, and all the teams that are #11 or lower now have more of an incentive to tank then Indy does. It would take a damned strange end to the season for Indy to slip into the bottom 10, but you’re right - I won’t rest easy until they win at least 1 more game.

By doc

April 11, 2007 6:12 PM | Link to this

matt, what i am saying is the pacers can play their best ball, lose three, someone 2 other teams of the the five win two (what convoluted tie breaker would there be for that one) then be facing the hawks who could then be all that separates them from that one victory that you referred to that seals it for the hawks not the pacers. i really think it ought to be thought through a little better than this or just accepted for what it is. yes i too will breathe a bit easier with a strong pacer finish.

with the records of all these teams it is hard not to think of teams tanking. there are going to be how many teams under .500 going into the playoffs? we thought at the end of the season last year and the beginning of this season that maybe parity was coming into the nba …. just didnt happen.

By Wedgie Evans

April 11, 2007 6:21 PM | Link to this

Kevin Durant is a 2-guard in a forward’s body. He may have the body of Chris Bosh, but he has the game of Tracy McGrady. What he doesn’t have is the post game to exploit the height advantage he will have in the NBA. Playing him in the post full-time in the NBA would be foolish, but he has to learn how to use his body to score on the block when he is guarded by smaller, quicker defenders. To exploit the height advantage more, he has to put on at least 20-30 extra pounds of muscle. Right now he’s too weak physically to abuse people on the block.

I pretty much agree with Matt’s outlook on the Hawks’ draft scenario, but if it came down to picking between Childress and Marvin Williams, I’d rather keep Childress. Childress may not be the scorer that Marvin is, but he’s better at everything else. When you already have Joe Johnson as your #1 scorer, it’s not worth it to keep Marvin around over Chills, when Marvin’s tendencies indicate he’s never going to excel at anything other than scoring in his career.

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 6:27 PM | Link to this

Paul I don’t think there is a Shaq type, just the one. I think Duncan would be the closest to Oden’s body type and low post style ,maybe there’s a player who would be closer but not Shaq.

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 6:30 PM | Link to this

Wedgie Durant in the high post not low,but he’s too versatile to limit him to a set point on the floor.

By Matt

April 11, 2007 6:42 PM | Link to this

Wedgie,

I’ll say it again - it’s way too early in Marvin’s career to rule him out as a defender yet. Those skills develop with time. I’ll just remind you that the exact same criticism was leveled at MJ, Kobe, and KG at the beginning of their careers, and they ALL turned out to be top-flight defenders. Also, Marvin isn’t bad on the boards, and he’ll get even better as he fills out his frame.

To Doc, et al:

Here’s a look at the schedules for Indiana and the 32-win squads (in descending order of how many wins I think they’ll end up with):

  • Indiana (34-43) plays on the road against Milwaukee tonight, then has games against Miami (road), NJ (home), Atl (R), and Wash (H). My projection: They take 1-2 of their 5.

  • Minnesota (32-45) plays at home against Dallas tonight, then plays SA (H), GS (R), Den (R), and Mem (H). I think they win 2-3 of those 5.

  • Sacramento (32-45) plays on the road against SanAn tonight, then faces GS (H), LAC (R), NO/OK (H), and LAL (H). I think they take 2 of those 5.

  • Philly (32-45) plays on the road against Boston tonight, then has 4 straight games against playoff-bound teams: Orl (H), Det (R), Cle (H), and Tor (R). I think they take 2 of those 5.

  • The Knicks (32-46) play on the road against NJ Friday, then play Tor (R), NJ again (H), and Cha (R). I think they win 1-2 of those 4.

  • Charlotte (32-47) plays Chi (R) Friday, Mil (R) Saturday, and NYK next week. I think they win 1 of those 3.

There would have to be a lot of breaks in that grouping for 2 teams to tie or pass Indy. Indy would probably have to go winless for the rest of the year, which isn’t likely with 2 home games and 2 games against high lottery teams.

As I said, I’ll breathe much easier if they pull off just 1 more win, and I pray that they do that tonight against the Bucks (I hope they’re still tanking).

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 6:58 PM | Link to this

Matt I couldn’t agree more on Marvin’s potential.I live in nc and watched him 20 or more times at UNC.I said then he wasn’t ready and should have returned to school.If he had with the injury he’d be a redshirt sophomore.I see him as a future 22 to 25 point 10 rebound sf or pf with very good passing skills and growing into a pretty good defender.

By mavid

April 11, 2007 7:11 PM | Link to this

matt, i completely agree. The INDY pick is looking pretty safe and is shaping up nicely at 12-13. The fact that they can still make the playoffs (and are playing JO) means that they have incentive to win and not tank (plus, who tanks JUST for the 10th pick?) Especially in a city that is USED to being in the playoffs, they dont wanna upset their fans and miss out.

I personally would try to trade up and get conley. I think he’ll be slightly better than Law, and even though he’s younger, we do have veteran PGs to act as quality backups (the key word here is BACKUPS!)

Oden and Conley is really a dream-scenario.

Marvin is gonna be straight (he’s already a better defender than Al Harrington). But did you see him get straight JUKED by gerald green last night? Go to nba.com and watch the dunk of the night. It’s that play. Marvin generally is decent, but he got embarassed there.

By St. Bernard

April 11, 2007 7:13 PM | Link to this

If anyone watched Hibbert and Oden in the Final Four you saw that Hibbert can play in contrast to some of the other unproven seven footers of late. Look at GT’s record and you’ll see that Hibbert has proven he can play.

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 7:21 PM | Link to this

ST Bernard I’m pretty familar with the 7 footers of late and most if not all could play on a college level,I wish Hibbert all the best but watching him lumber down court is sleep inducing.

By doc

April 11, 2007 7:26 PM | Link to this

marvin has no clue on defense and his plus minus figures show it. i had hoped his learning curve would approach that of bosh but it isnt even close now after two season for points, blocks, steals or bounds. he is behind on all fronts signifcantly for both seasons. he doesnt show athleticism of quickness or agility yet to convince me he can handle the three position and hasnt shown the cohones to get the job done as a four. he better be doing something to improve his explosiveness over the summer or he will only be a poor man’s al harrington and not the three/four hybrid that i thought he could become. right now he is too slow for the three and too weak for the four, not what you want in the number two draftee.

By jhan

April 11, 2007 7:29 PM | Link to this

I have to think Durant will be a much better pro than Marvin. Durant has less experience but is already a better scorer. Does anyone think Marvin would have put up 25 & 10 on a regular basis in college? I just don’t see it. His handle is not that great & I don’t think he can palm the basketball. Watch when he attacks the basket, he never grabs the ball with one hand and attacks.

Under the right circumstances, I would trade Marvin. I agree that Childress would be the better player to keep. Unless the injury bug is a constant with Childress, then we need to trade him.

If we get #1 & #11 then we don’t have to worry. We can draft who we want and have an awesome core of players to develop.

By hawks are cursed for trading Nique.

April 11, 2007 8:22 PM | Link to this

of course a city of close to 5 million can support a NBA team! Do pple not remember 60,000 packed into the ga dome for jordans last games here? This city loves winners and the hawks are not built to win currently….and pple like me arent stupid enough to think u can win meaningfull games without a true center or pointguard. Our player selection really sucks.
Bill Simmon of espn: your a idiot!

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 8:24 PM | Link to this

Doc If you’re going to compare the early production of players try to be fair.In that interest here’s a bit of reality. J O’neal never averaged five points or five rebounds till his fifth season, Koby first season 7.59 pts 1.86 rebs, Garnett first season 10.44 pts 6.26 rebs, Bosh 11.48 pts 7.43 rebs, Josh Smith first season 9.66 pts 6.18 rebs second season 11.28 pts 6.68 rebs Marvin 8.51 pts 4.85 rebs first season 12.71 pts 5.20 rebs second season playing after an injury. So if you just want’a knock him have at it but he’s a 20 year old who made considerable progress his second year even with the injury.

By volstar

April 11, 2007 8:44 PM | Link to this

The ignorance of some of these posts defy logic. Whoever suggests moving the Hawks is a full blown idiot. Speaking objectively:

Atlanta is a huge market that is still outgrowing the rest of the nation. The NBA would never move out of one of the hottest growth markets and the largest city in the south…ain’t gonna happen.

Corporate sponsorship is vital. Atlanta has the big companies to buy those suite boxes. GP, Coke, Delta, Oracle…..and so on.

Atlanta has a diverse population that would embrace the Hawks if they could put a decent team on the floor.

In the late 80’s Atlanta showed it can easily be a basketball town, selling out games right and left. But Atlanta is a city that hates garbage…and the Hawks are garbage. Even Boston, the so called great fans, have bailed on the Celts.

Whoever suggested moving the Hawks obviously did not think before posting, that has to be the most ignorant post I have seen in a long time.

By mavid

April 11, 2007 9:05 PM | Link to this

^^^^ HAHAHA dude (volstar), read it again.

I quoted Bill Simmons from espn.com (aka the sports guy)

I too disagree with his statement. Email him what you just wrote (I emailed him similar things). He often responds to feedback in his blogs.

By Jay

April 11, 2007 9:06 PM | Link to this

Hawks have a .500 record without JJ. Coincidence?

By Chris

April 11, 2007 9:15 PM | Link to this

Yes, Sekou, I think you have missed something. More like 36 somethings (those would be the 25 points and 11 boards Durant put up over the course of the season).

Honestly, since Shaq came out, I don’t recall someone else being as ready to immediately impact the NBA as is Durant. Dude’s an absolute monster.

By Matt

April 11, 2007 9:26 PM | Link to this

Jay,

If you’re suggesting that the Hawks are better without JJ, then…wow. Take away that opening 4-game win streak, the Hawks have gone 3-10 since he went down. If that’s not enough for you, I suggest you read this. Sekou said it better than I could: http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/hawks/entries/2007/03/14/youcannotbe_s.html

By F.A. Skippy

April 11, 2007 9:33 PM | Link to this

Chris Duncan was a star from day one.I like Durant alot but no way he makes the overall impact he did.

By volstar

April 11, 2007 10:07 PM | Link to this

no problem Mavid. The guy should be fired for writing something that stupid. Toronto would be my choice followed by New Orleans. Memphis is a hoop town but is also a city in decline so not sure about them. Nashville could be a better choice.

Oden is not even close to Durant, maybe he will be one day- but Durant is arguably the best freshman ….ever.

By Matt

April 11, 2007 10:44 PM | Link to this

We can breathe easier now.

Indy won while Minnesota and Sacramento lost. That leaves the “race” for 12th-worst looking like this:

IND: 35-43 PHI: 33-45 MIN: 32-46 SAC: 32-46 NYK: 32-46 CHA: 32-47

Basically, the only team with a real chance of catching Indiana now is Philly, and even that would take them going 3-1 while Indiana went 1-3…and even then, Indy would get the 11th pick, which is unprotected :).

Besides which, Indiana is now just 1 game behind Orlando for the last spot in the playoffs, so you KNOW they’ll be bringing it the next few days, and one more win closes the door on those 32-win teams altogether.

At this point, it would multiple lightning strikes for that Indy pick to be higher than 11 overall - at which point the team has just a 2.9% chance of getting into the top 3…it drops to 2.5% for the 12 seed.

Then again, considering the Hawks’s luck in the draft lottery over the past two decades, I might feel better if Indy just managed to get the last spot in the playoffs, and just guarantee the Hawks the #15…

By Steve T

April 11, 2007 11:00 PM | Link to this

People on this blog have been saying that the Hawks should not have picked Marvin over Chris. I guess the bucks should not have picked Andrew Bogut. Let us compare Marvin and Bogut.

Bogut PPG 12.3 RPG 8.8
APG 3.0 SPG .74 BPG .53 FG% .553 FT% .577 3P% .200 MPG 34.2

Williams PPG 12.7 RPG 5.2
APG 1.9 SPG .80 BPG .45 FG% .426 FT% .819 3P% .244 MPG 33.6

Marvin is doing pretty well compared to Bogut. Marvin is holding his own against the number 1 pick that year.

Paul PPG 17.3 RPG 4.4
APG 8.7 SPG 1.87 BPG .05 FG% .434 FT% .819 3P% .346 MPG 36.7

By doc

April 11, 2007 11:20 PM | Link to this

skippy, at a comparable time bosh had avg. 17 and 9 in his second year with blocks ansd steals to boot. bosh’s injury comes in his third year where his numbers were up as well. i very much have defended and said maybe marvin’s no.s would be similar to the curve of bosh. he hasnt delivered is all i am saying now, he has work to do… so marvin get busy and become what he is drafted for! the pressure is on and others have done better in as short a time.

By F.A. Skippy

April 12, 2007 12:50 AM | Link to this

doc you choose one player that seems to support your point and ignore all the others that don’t,that’s not a lie but it sure ain’t honest either.

By Clyde

April 12, 2007 1:04 AM | Link to this

Here is a clip from Tony Mejia’s article on cbssportsline. This one’s for you Woody.

“At this stage of the season, it’s common for apologists to start making excuses.

You’ve probably already seen Joe Sportscaster break down the large assortment of injuries that have plagued your city’s team. The guy at the bar who always has his team’s cap on goes one further, lamenting an unfair schedule. Too many back-to-backs … that really tough road swing came at the most inopportune time … blah, blah and blah.

Despite being hit hardest by injuries, Chris Paul and the Hornets are still in the playoff conversation. (AP)
Grab yourself a tissue and a dose of reality. Every team has had its woes this season. Not one was spared. Sure, some were hit harder than others, but ultimately, you play with the hand fate deals you.”

FIRE BILLY AND WOODY

By doc

April 12, 2007 7:25 AM | Link to this

skippy, i all year compared marvin to bosh as his defender when there were discussions about his level of play. the year is over and he just hasnt delivered. the comparison is fair and valid. same conf in college, same age coming out after freshman year, same draft pick, same size, playing for awful teams in the east, la de da. if we and marvin are going to be realistic then that is the type comparison to make. marvin hasn’t distinguished himself as a keeper yet and all we can talk about is potential as being a great player. otherwise, we are left with the comparison to hinm as a poor man’s al harrington … a journeyman rather than a significant player to build on.

that is where marvin is going to have to look deep as well as his defender’s such as you and formally me. he has work to do and now is the time and he has to admit it.you had better expect more as well rather than make excuses for a number two that has two points playing far better than him drafted after him and one only a year older having come from the same conference but come out as a soph. it is really blue skying to think that marvin would be a 25 and 10 guy in a major college or as a pro at this stage of his development. good player but not distinctive.

By Dale

April 12, 2007 9:09 AM | Link to this

I must admit, Clyde is still the most intelligent person on this blog.

Whatever happen to the old motto of “expect the best and prepare for the worst”. Most of you people including Sekou, are sounding like the Hawks have a top 3 pick wrapped-up! People, there is a greater chance of the Hawks not having a pick period.
If were going to talk in hypotheticals, let’s be a little more wise.

*Example: If Boston gets the #1 pick, maybe we can try to put together a package for a Peirce and West. Or how about we trade Marvin and Shelden Williams for Gerald Green and Rajon Rondo? The Hawks have some talent, but games aren’t won on talent alone.

Every clear-thinking fan in this City can see what this team needs, chemistry and leadership. Why can’t Billy Knight see that?

By Dale

April 12, 2007 9:09 AM | Link to this

I must admit, Clyde is still the most intelligent person on this blog.

Whatever happen to the old motto of “expect the best and prepare for the worst”. Most of you people including Sekou, are sounding like the Hawks have a top 3 pick wrapped-up! People, there is a greater chance of the Hawks not having a pick period.
If were going to talk in hypotheticals, let’s be a little more wise.

*Example: If Boston gets the #1 pick, maybe we can try to put together a package for a Peirce and West. Or how about we trade Marvin and Shelden Williams for Gerald Green and Rajon Rondo? The Hawks have some talent, but games aren’t won on talent alone.

Every clear-thinking fan in this City can see what this team needs, chemistry and leadership. Why can’t Billy Knight see that?

By newkid

April 12, 2007 10:03 AM | Link to this

Clyde, it looks like Sam Mitchell will get a fairly hefty extension in Toronto, so is it time to seek permission from the Suns to initiate discussions with Mark Ivaroni?

By jonathan

April 12, 2007 10:18 AM | Link to this

Listening to Woodson use injuries as an excuse makes me ill. Most of the teams have had some injuries. That is just a “victim mentality” - he needs to step up and take responsibility. He is a very, very, very poor coach.

And Billy Knight has made drafting errors, failed to make impactful trades, and blew the Cap money so it will be nearly impossible to get out of this. Both need to be let go - within 3 minutes of the end of the season.

By Anakin Joe

April 12, 2007 10:24 AM | Link to this

Okay, I’m worried again about that Indy pick (I know, only a day later). We need for them to stay OUTTA the playoffs. They’re only 1 game behind Orlando for the 8th spot. Hopefully, Orlando will win out the rest of their games as Miami and DC should be resting their starters and Philly and Boston are beatable. Philly still has to play the Raptors and Cavs and both teams are playing for better the #2 seed in the East. So I don’t view them as a threat to Indy. We need for Indy to go 2-2 for the rest of the season (IMHO) to stay at #12.

By smartguy

April 12, 2007 11:44 AM | Link to this

I like Clyde, too.

Check out HawkHack’s blog from last week “Injuries, injuries, injuries.”

By Dan

April 12, 2007 12:08 PM | Link to this

Dale

I love how you imply that you are a “clear-thinking fan” right after proposing a hypothetical trade with Boston that has no chance of happening.

The Hawks will have a pick. The Pacers pick won’t fall between 1 and 10.

Anyone going to either of the last two games? I don’t think I am. Hard to stomach watching this nonsense anymore. I need some time off.

The NBA sucks this time of year. Few teams are playing for anything and most of the playoff spots are set. Won’t get good again until the playoffs start.

By Matt

April 12, 2007 12:45 PM | Link to this

Anakin,

I wouldn’t mind if Indiana made it into the playoffs. The #12 pick wouldn’t get us anything we couldn’t get at #15 (read: Acie Law), and that way we KNOW that we’ll get the #15, and I wouldn’t mind having that certainty.

If we wanted Conley, we’d have to trade up from #12 anyway, so there’s really not a huge disadvantage from ‘dropping’ to #15, although 3 picks higher is definitely something.

By dale

April 12, 2007 12:46 PM | Link to this

Dan, I understand your disagreement with the trade. My thinking is that Boston is going to have to move some players. They simply have too many young players with talent that demand playing time. I believe Pierce will be placed on the trading block, he is older and has good value. They will be stuck with Wally for the next 2 years, during the development of the young guys (Jefferson, Green, Rondo, Gomes, Telfair, Perkins, and Durant or Oden) .

Pierce and JJ on the same floor at the sametime would be dynamic. Throw in Josh Smith and now you have a solid nucleus for the team to build around. In my mind, that is a good contingency plan for the Hawks, if they end up without a draft pick.

By Clyde

April 12, 2007 12:48 PM | Link to this

newkid I think we need to start talking to any and everybody. I just don’t think I could take another year of the Billy and Woody regime. In my opinion if everyone on this roster is healthy next year we would only win 30-35 games. That’s how bad this team is. The Spirit Group needs to just face the music.

FIRE BILLY AND WOODY

By Matt

April 12, 2007 1:03 PM | Link to this

I love how people have the “NBA Live” trade mentality still.

This is the rule: YOU CAN’T GET A STAR WITHOUT GIVING A STAR UNLESS: - A) You’re starting from scratch and rebuilding; or - B) You’re doing a sign-and-trade.

Pierce is efficient, intense, and VERY popular among Boston fans. The Celts won’t trade him unless the Hawks are willing to trade JSmoove and a first round pick, or else JJ. No package that doesn’t include someone who is at least on the cusp of being an All-Star will suffice.

Similarly, they wouldn’t give up 2 young players who will be starters in the near future (Gerald and Rondo) unless the Hawks offered more than 1 future starter and an undersized PF. The Hawks would have to throw in Childress and/or a draft pick to complete the deal.

By F.A. Skippy

April 12, 2007 1:16 PM | Link to this

Doc I get the Bosh comparison,my point is you can’t just pick a single case and be fair or get an accurate read.Let’s say we compare Jordan to Koby.Koby had won three titles at an age Jordan had none.So I could take this incomplete view and with real facts argue a point that doesn’t give the bigger picture.That’s why you need to look at more young players to evaluate Marvin’s development and potential.It’s not just apples and oranges that are different,apples and apples are to.Marvin is Marvin not Bosh and if he developes a year or two later nobody will remember in ten years.

By F.A. Skippy

April 12, 2007 1:46 PM | Link to this

Doc More on the Marvin situation.First he’s 20! that’s 20!! how mature were you at that age? I know I was a better more capable man at 25 than 20.Marvin shouldn’t have to become a Bosh clone to be successful.The 2005 draft was a weak one,this draft will produce at least four players who would go ahead of Marvin,that’s not his fault and it shouldn’t be his burden.I don’t know how good he will be,I do know it’s too soon to throw him under a bus.In my view management put a poor mix of players together,Johnson came in as a 23 year old backup with the suns and became the veteran leader to these kids.So put the blame where it belongs.Maybe Marvin will be traded,and maybe that will make sense.My only point is it’s too soon to qualify the guy.

By Anakin Joe

April 12, 2007 1:57 PM | Link to this

Matt, there is more value in a pick that is truly a lottery selection vs. #15. As you stated, at #12 (or there abouts) we may not find someone who can truly help this club (other than Law), but the #12 pick should offer more trade value than #15.

Here’s my new “Hawks Draft Day Fantasy” (not involving Beyonce & Shakira):

Lakers lose in first round of playoffs and realize that they need to improve their team and not worry about 2-3 years down the line. Acie Law is available at #12 (seems like he would be ideal in Phil’s triangle offense). We offer the rights to Law along with Zaza, Childress & Lue to the Lakers for Farmar, Bynum and their 1st round pick (somewhere around #18-20. I added Childress/Lue because Walton & Parker are free agents and the Lakers have a horrible bench. Zaza, Childress, Lue & Law will be far more productive in 07-08 than Bynum, Farmar and the #18-20 pick. Kobe can’t (won’t) continue to play on a borderline playoff team, which is what the Lakers have become.

I’d use that Lakers pick on the best available international big man, with plans to leave him overseas for one year. I roll with Bynum & Farmar in the starting line-up next season and sign secondary free agents like Chris Mihm and Devin Brown (or Jumaine Jones) to bolster my bench. Of course, I have Bill Laimbeer as my Head Coach and Jessica Alba bringing me hot popcorn on Draft Night (oops, did I write that?) Very little (if any) incremental expense for our impoverished owners and we get our C and PG of the future. (And if I need to add Shelden and/or Salim to get that done, I wouldn’t blink to throw them in the mix).

By Dale

April 12, 2007 2:04 PM | Link to this

Matt; you couldn’t be anymore wrong than what you are.

What superstar was traded for Allen Iverson, what did Philly get for Charles Barkley, what did we get for Dominique Wilkins, what did Chicago get for Elton Brand, what did the Bullets get for Chris Webber, what did Toronto get for Vince Carter?

I mean come on man, think. Trades are more about timing and dollars, not talent for talent!!!

By dale

April 12, 2007 2:07 PM | Link to this

Matt, one more thing. Just to confirm you are agreeing with me that Rondo and Green, will be better pros than Marvin and Shelden. Right?

By F.A. Skippy

April 12, 2007 2:40 PM | Link to this

Joe Farmar and Bynum and a mid 1 pick for Zaza, Lue, Law,and Childress ? Why don’t we throw in a child or two and the deed to Philips arena ?

By Matt

April 12, 2007 2:56 PM | Link to this

Dale,

To post 2: I am not agreeing at all with that assessment. I still think that Marvin will turn out to be a serious player, but I don’t think most NBA teams think that right now, since he’s stuck with the (unfair, IMHO) stigma of being the guy selected before 2 already great players.

To your first post: I guess I didn’t emphasize the importance of player popularity enough, or that trading first round draft picks can sometimes substitute for star players, depending on the situation. Of the players you just listed, the only one who was a big draw in the city was Nique (which was a stupid trade on our part). There were many Philly fans who despised both Iverson and Barkley, and were pushing for them to be traded for awhile before they were.

Also, every player in that list proved my point, since all of them were traded in exchange for either 1st rounders, an All-Star, or both.

And to answer your Q’s: The Sixers got two first round picks and a starting PG who has consistently been near the top of the league in assists in exchange for Iverson.

The Sixers got a guy who was averaging 20 points and 7 assists per game in the Barkley deal, plus two solid backups.

The Bulls got the 2nd overall draft pick in exchange for Brand.

The Bullets got a 6-time All-Star who had just made the All-Star team the year before in exchange for Webber, plus a solid veteran PF.

Carter had demanded a trade from Toronto (something that’s not happening with Pierce) and the Raptors still got TWO first-round picks in the Carter deal.

By Matt

April 12, 2007 3:01 PM | Link to this

Oh and forgot - even in the Nique trade, we got a younger All-Star (he had appeared in the last 2 ASGs) who was averaging 24 points and 7 boards in return. We didn’t re-sign him at the end of the year, but Manning was definitely a player, and only deteriorated after he hurt his knee in fall ‘93.

By MsDee

April 12, 2007 3:28 PM | Link to this

hot off the press NCAA BB Ohio State C Greg Oden, G Mike Conley, and G/F Daequan Cook reportedly expected to enter NBA draft

By doc

April 12, 2007 3:42 PM | Link to this

skippy, jj was an integral part of the suns and his smashed face is given as a reason the suns did not advance to the finals that year. please, he was a stud for the suns not a backup. call it right. bosh was the same age in his second year … but drone on.

marvin has NOT distinguished himself as a keeper after his second year. all of the names you mentioned had by the SAME age as marvin, kobe, garnett and labron. all these guys were doing it at a similar age. he just might not be that special; he is going to have to work to get better. i really hope next year is his breakout year but it will take work.

By Braves Fan 79

April 12, 2007 11:10 PM | Link to this

Matt what are you talking about? nothing good ever came of the nique trade! the hawks sucked with manning and he then left 6months later cause he never wanted ot be a hawk to start with! petebabsuckacock can lick my nuts!

By Matt

April 13, 2007 2:33 AM | Link to this

Did I say anything good came of it? No. In fact, I said the exact opposite in my prior post. I was merely pointing out that All-Stars were traded from both sides in that deal.

By wh

April 14, 2007 11:27 AM | Link to this

Gerald Green and Rajon Rondo? Please.

Dominique Trade? He was Clearly in the Prime of his career when they moved him? C’mon.

Childress shoots 50% and fills stat sheet. so logically (Hawkland) he will be the one to go.

Player with most value to move (though declining) = J Smith. Giving this mutant max $ would be considered Franchiside for most teams. Of course your franchise can’t be already dead for that term to apply.

If they draft a swingman again everybody in ATL should move on. Better yet everybody stay - and have the Hawks move on.

By gary

April 15, 2007 1:51 PM | Link to this

There is no question that the Hawks coach and GM need to go. Give me a break about the injuries. All teams have them. We have had several top draft chices in the last three years and they are not playing cohesive as a unit. I really thought Woodson was the right choice then, but not anymore. Durant is the most complete college player I have ever seen with dribbling, blocking, running and shooting. If we draft him, he will look at this organization and choose to play in Europe for a year and come back next year to try for a real team. I am really tired of watching this team lose all the time and make excuses. Until management changes are made, I will not follow the Hawks,

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