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Wednesday, January 3, 2007
Stats tell the story
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Twenty-nine games into this Hawks season should be a solid enough statistical sample to evaluate players right? That’s what I was thinking this morning as I scanned the stats and notes package tossed in my lap during practice Tuesday.
That’s basically a third of the season, though injuries have whittled down those 29 games to the teens for some of the Hawks’ key performers. But it’s a viable sample nonetheless, and one that will serve us well today, as we scan the wreckage that has become the Hawks’ 9-20 season so far.
If someone told you before the season that the Hawks would have six players averaging 12.4 points or better, would you have guessed they’d be 11 games under .500 at this point? Didn’t think so.
If you knew that the trio of Josh Childress, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams were all averaging at least 12 points and 4-plus rebounds per game, you’d have been dancing in the aisles at Philips Arena thinking a playoff berth was imminent.
But the raw numbers alone don’t tell the whole story, as has become painfully clear in Hawksville over the past 2-plus years. The Hawks haven’t had better scoring balance under Mike Woodson but they’ve also never had this type of roster dysfunction either (that stockpile of like players is now dragging the Hawks into a mismatched abyss on most nights).
Here’s a closer look at the raw numbers of the Hawks’ top six performers (a combination of minutes, scoring average and several other key statistics), with a little commentary regarding each guy’s prospects for the remainder of the season:
Joe Johnson, 41.6 minutes, 26.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.6 turnovers, .483 FG%, .376 3PT%, .728 FT% (25 games played): It’s hard to argue his production. And it’s even harder if you’ve watched the Hawks every night and realize what kind of burden he’s carrying in terms of the constant shadowing by multiple defenders on offense. The only gripe someone could make is regarding his free throw shooting (he never shot below .750 before this season). Some of that no doubt has to do with fatigue. And as honorable as it is to represent your country on the national team, Johnson should think long and hard about skipping Las Vegas this summer in an effort to save himself for the Hawks next season. An All-Star lock early in the year, it’ll take some work now that the Hawks have slid predictability in the won-loss department.
Tyronn Lue, 30.5 minutes, 14.7 points, 3.7 assists, 2.5 rebounds, 1.82 turnovers, .434 FG%, .354 3PT%, .866 FT% (22 games played): Before the extended minutes caught up to his body, Lue was playing like a man having an out-of-body experience. An executive I respect called him “one of the best drift shooters in the league,” which I believe is something like being a fantastic rhythm shooter. Lue’s assist to turnover ratio is also good for a backup point guard. But much like Johnson, fatigue began to take a toll. Having to overcompensate for Speedy Claxton’s uneven start by playing big minutes, Lue’s effectiveness waned in the few games before he was injured. When he’s back and close to 100 percent health (I don’t think that any player is every 100 percent once the season starts), the Hawks will have their most potent weapon off the bench at their disposal. But he must get healthy.
Josh Childress, 36.7 minutes, 13.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.2 turnovers, 1.2 blocks, .560 FG%, .267 3PT%, .852 FT%, (10 games played): If not for the hairline fracture in his left foot that torpedoed his season for more than a month, Childress would be a strong contender for the NBA’s Sixth-Man award. Instead, he’s just trying to find that same cosmic niche he had carved out for himself before his injury. Anyone debating his value as a slasher and role player deluxe just doesn’t get it. You’ve got to have guys like this on a team if you have any chance of being successful (and before anyone brings it up, the numbers for he and Luol Deng and Andre Iguodala are a wash). His shot stroke might make you cringe but his results are what count, his shooting percentage is tops on the team and he’s one of the best free throw shooters as well. It’s crucial that he stays injury free the rest of the way.
Zaza Pachulia, 30.8 minutes, 13.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.56 turnovers, .462 FG%, .761 FT%, (27 games played): What’s not to like about Pachulia? His numbers are holding steady from last season and he’s been the healthiest of all the Hawks’ regulars this season. But, as he would tell you, Pachulia is struggling in a major way this year. At his age (23) and just four years into his NBA career, his numbers should be rising not leveling off. For a guy who’s as active on the offensive glass as he is, Pachulia isn’t finishing around the basket the way you’d expect for a 6-11, 260-pound guy. His shooting percentage should be in the same neighborhood as Childress. The most perplexing issue regarding Pachulia’s game is that he’s not a better shot-blocker (career 0.4 and 0.6 this season). He doesn’t even contest many shots around the basket, which is one reason the Hawks are routinely worked over in the paint. He has to be more active on the defensive end if the Hawks want to turn that around.
Josh Smith, 37.0 minutes, 12.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.72 turnovers, 2.48 blocks, .424 FG%, .271 3PT%, .682 FT%, (25 games played): The ongoing roller coaster that is Josh Smith’s career development is on hiatus until the end of the month (hernia surgery). Still, no player intrigues or infuriates the masses more than this physical wunderkind. When he’s at his best (active on both ends of the floor, working from the weak side to contest, alter and block shots on defense and taking the ball to the basket on offense), he’s a joy to watch. But when he’s parked at the 3-point line and determined to jack up shots from deep, it’s a painful viewing experience. He should be shooting 60 percent from the floor and averaging 18 points per game. But Smith still hasn’t decided to become the undersized power forward that he’s destined to be. Because he has a chance be one of the league’s most versatile players if he can wrap his arms around the idea of being that type of player.
Marvin Williams, 32.3 points, 12.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 2.67 turnovers, .395 FG%, .286 3PT%, .789 FT% (12 games played): A 12-game sample isn’t much to work with here. And the fractured finger suffered on the eve of the regular season has no doubt thrown a hiccup into the development of the talent that MUST become one of the Hawks’ pillars. Everyone’s still waiting for Williams to take off, and his numbers aren’t shabby. They’re just not dominant (and realistically should not be at this stage of his career), and that’s what they’ll need to be if he is going to assume the role that’s been cast for him. His shot selection so far has been spotty (hence the sub-.400 percentage). He’s not rebounding as well as he should and his fouls and turnovers are a bit high. Again, much of that can be attributed to his late start to the season and the fact that he, more than anyone, is still trying to find a rhythm – not only in the playing rotation and scheme, but also in his own body. The hope has to be that he continues to get better and better as the season goes on, because all the tools are in place for a breakout second half.
