Hawks

By Astro Joe

November 17, 2006 04:19 PM | Link to this

Much easier to do it Miami’s way than Atlanta’s way. The value of Shaq, Alonzo, Payton, Antoine, J-Will and even Posey is fairly well established and will likely go no where but down. You can obtain modest value for those depreciating assets and sleep fairly well at night. With the Hawks, most of their value is still in the “potential” area. It is very unlikely that Childress, Marvin, Smith, Salim, Shelden, Solomon and Zaza will all be here when the Hawks are making a push for the Eastern Conference Finals. Deciding which appreciating asset to let go can keep you up at night. How much value do you get back in return, when do you cut bait, when do you sacrifice potential for production? Those are difficult questions that the Hawks GM will ultimately be forced to answer. Let me put it this way, is it even possible for Riley to trade Antoine sooner than he should? The risk is minimal, especially compared to the risk that BK would have if he traded Smith too soon (or for the wrong returning player).

Sorry about the lost of Bo, Sekou. Especially on the heels of the big game.

By TD

November 17, 2006 04:51 PM | Link to this

I would much rather be in a position of working with replacing pieces of a roster of players coming off a championhship than a roster of players that haven’t demonstrated they can even win at the NBA level. Shaq has been a unique player within the NBA and there seems to be a lack of true centers in the NBA right now anyway.

By newkid

November 17, 2006 05:02 PM | Link to this

Apologize if this shows up twice; lost my screen before I completed earlier response.

Sorry Joe, but gotta disagree. Most of Miami’s assets are toward the ‘salvage’ end of their productivity. Far fewer teams would be interested in taking on any on those ‘assets’ unless such teams are on the cusp of challenging for the O’Brien trophy. And if a team is on the cusp, the asset at Miami would have to be capable of filling a very specific and short-term need if it’s to be attractive. Miami must therefore principally rely on the draft and FAs to rebuild.

BK has young, athletic, relatively inexpensive, and still developing talent that he could use in trades. Of course he also has the draft and FAs. One would think that the young inexpensive tradeable talent would give BK the edge in building (all other things being held equal).

Sort of comparable to asking if one would rather have the task of re-building the $200M Yankees (WITH A LEAGUE CAP) or building the $15M Floridan Marlins. If you could control for the disparities in attractiveness of the cities, endorsement opportunities, and team history, give me the Marlins situation every time.

By Tyger

November 17, 2006 06:17 PM | Link to this

Interesting Topic

Pat Riley has the best of both worlds a young superstar, Wade, and perhaps the most dominant BIG ever, Shaq.

With those centerpieces, he smartly found cheap, veteran role players; drafted versatile and athletic 6-6 to 6-8 swingmen: D.Wade, D.Wright and M.Simeon; and stole NBDLs Earl Barron. (sound familiar?)

Their future post-Shaq is uncertain, however, Riley wont be around post-Shaq.

Ownership issues aside, Billy Knight, the best talent man in the business, has likewise, done a remarkable job. Contrarily, the Hawks core arrived primarily through the draft, thereby, keeping salaries well below the salary cap.

You cannot overemphasize the impact BK’s drafting has had - for 20 years, Pete Babcock and Stan Kasten wasted 1st round pick after 1st round pick.

Then, made desperate trade after trade for high priced, aged vets; Reggie Theus to Big Dog to J.R, until they virtually ruined this franchise.

Free agents JJ and ZaZa have been over the top. It remains to be seen what impact Speedy and LoWright will ultimately have, but so far, they havent hurt.

The veteran Heat are built to win championships now, whereas, the Hawks are built to win championships post-Shaq.

By Swatguy

November 17, 2006 06:25 PM | Link to this

Without a doubt I’d rather project the Hawks (sans Belkin). Economically dealing with future gains vs deminishing assets is a no brainer. On one there is Wade, on the other JJ. Comparing the rest of their roster, the Hawks have a decided upside in talent and future gains. next.

By ray

November 17, 2006 07:35 PM | Link to this

Nice contrasting arguments, Joe, Tyger, and Newkid. I don’t know that I really have anything to say differently.

On the flip side, this topic is almost surely chum bait for a certain blog predator. I smell and Andro coming for this one…heh, heh, heh. Speaking of which, I hope I broke the paragraphs up enough..grin

By ray

November 17, 2006 07:43 PM | Link to this

Seriously, I kind of have to swing the focus of this toward what actually is likely to happen with each given franchise, rather than which would I rather project.

If you want to talk which one to work with, I think you’re talking about what your ulterior motive is. If you want to make your mark in the NBA as GM, sort of create from the proverbial ground up, then the Hawks are more your target. If you want to preserve something that hasn’t been around long enough to be a legacy, yet is most recently ultimately successful and has the potential to continue to be so, then Miami is more your target.

Now for the stirring of the pot. In the case of the Hawks, if you want to build a project like this in a reasonable amount of time, you better be a decently wealthy owner or pray that you are a smart GM working for a decently wealthy (and not scrooge-ish)owner (s). Do the Hawks have either one of those bases covered? In Miami, you have a sharp GM none as Riles. And obviously the owner’s pockets aren’t hurting. Now all you need is the right moves.

And that is the problem still in Hawksville. Uncertainty. If we continue with broke owners, rebuilding will continue to be long and arduous. That is the beginning of all things that hamper successful progression of the franchise. Second is decisions made by the GM. Drafting, trading, and free agency moves have to be solid or we will never make it over the hump. At this point, we are trying to simply make it up the hump.

By Wedgie Evans

November 18, 2006 02:02 AM | Link to this

One thing that wasn’t properly mentioned in this article was that one of the main reasons the Heat was able to win a championship so quickly was because they were able to trade for Shaq without giving up their best player. If the Hawks were to try a trade for a guy like Kevin Garnett, for example, would the Timberwolves realistically expect anything less than Joe Johnson in return? (Knowing Kevin McHale’s track record, maybe, but any GM worth their salt wouldn’t). The Heat gave up 2 good but not great players (Lamar Odom and Caron Butler) for the guy who was, at the time, the most dominant player in the league, while being able to keep their budding young superstar. Once you have Wade and Shaq, filling in the blanks around them is the easy part. More often than not, when teams try to trade young players for veterans, they end up overpaying for veterans who are not worth it and never get as far as they expect to go (see New York Knicks). Building around young players (Tayshaun Prince), offloading overpaid veterans (the Stackhouse for Rip Hamilton trade) and underpaying for veterans (Chauncey Billups, Ben Wallace) is the way the Pistons won a title, and with the exception of the Joe Johnson trade it seems to be generally what the Hawks are trying to do.

By Wedgie Evans

November 18, 2006 02:04 AM | Link to this

And as for these teams’ futures, I would think these two polar opposites are going to try to come towards the middle, so to speak. I would think the Hawks would try to package a couple of their young players for a veteran to pair with Joe Johnson, and the Heat would try to offload some of their aging, expendable veterans to other contenders for draft picks.

By G Money

November 18, 2006 02:40 AM | Link to this

The easier route by far is the Heat. You have a supportive ownership team that gives the GM the latitude to spend and trade in order to build around the core. The reality with the Hawks is that they can’t spend at all. They can’t even pick up great free agents (ala the Greek) and get rid of basement salaries. You can’t build if you can’t invest. This alone constricts how high a GM can reach or how involved he can be in opportunistic deals (a disgruntled wants out).

Regardless of the posts, BK has done a good job with the budget that he has. I for one believe that one doesn’t have 7 years to build a team (ala Chicago). Why would a vet want to come to ATL unless it is for the money, based on our track record to date.

On the other hand, Miami has mystique, the mystique of Pat Riley is legendary and intoxicating. DWade is getting the press; he’s getting paid and he’s getting major promotional opportunities. If I’m a player trying to get recognized, I’m headed to the real deep south — it’s just that much more attractive.

Additionally while I love Atlanta, Buckhead doesn’t compare to South Beach. And as for the babes….sorry guys!

By **NATIVE SON**

November 18, 2006 11:34 AM | Link to this

Pretty astute;Astro Joe

By ray

November 18, 2006 02:41 PM | Link to this

Good points, Wedgie. I guess that then the question would be whether you are building for continuous success where you are at or near the championship level, or a one-shot deal. Detroit was a one-shot deal, obviously due to various circumstances. Perhaps they could have continued their winning ways with Big Ben staying, but there’s no guarantee. Especially if teams like San Antonio keep coming back at you. Miami isn’t a lock to win it this year either.

But anyway, I hope to see a sustained tremendous effort against Miami tonight. We should definitely take advantage of the absence of Shaq, who has begun his early season injury status in earnest. Already going for surgery. He’ll be around for the postseason, no doubt.

By JJHawksfan#4

November 18, 2006 11:22 PM | Link to this

That Miami game really BLEW!!! We should’ve at least had a shot to beat them in regulation!! Four Offensive boards for Miami in the last 1:10!! Damn man, three home games in a row after a 4-1 start & we’re 4-4!!! How does that happen?

By tb

November 19, 2006 04:57 AM | Link to this

Very young team and two starters and our sixth man all missing time to injuries has something to do with it.

By Samuel

November 19, 2006 10:11 AM | Link to this

Another tough loss. I like the fact that we are competing every game. I also liked the play of Josh Smith. He didn’t settle for all those 3’s except on a couple of occassions. He played like a man last night. he needs to continue to work down low and keeping driving to the basket. He will get better and better at finishing as he continues to go to the rack. I also liked the way Sheldon played and especially knocking down those free throws. He needs to be in at the end of ballgames. He is a very smart player and doesn’t get rattled. Salim also had a good game. He seems to be humbled by that time on the bench maybe he can step up and give us something now.

JJ is still a stud but we still got to find another scorer. Lue seems to be the only person able to score(other than JJ) right now. I know Speedy is injured but he really is not impressing me at all. I think we need to go with Lue and work Speedy in. Lue has earned a starting nod and he should be rewarded.

Overall, a pretty good effort. If we continue to bring that every game we should be competitive against anyone.

By ray

November 19, 2006 01:05 PM | Link to this

I really hated to see us lose that one. On the one hand, we defended Miami very tough in the last minute or two. On the other hand, we shouldn’t have to do that, meaning we should NOT have allowed so many consecutive offensive rebounds.

Well, Astro Joe, your main man Salim got some burn and scored a bit,too. he seemed to relax just a hair once he was in there for more than a few seconds. One thing is for sure, he brings the energy, those legs are always churning.

Speaking of energy, we sure missed Childress, didn’t we? I guarantee that the game would have been different if he was available. Not only does he bring energy, but he gets rebounds on both ends and finds ways to score. Moving well without the ball contributes heavily to that. Childress really is everywhere when he plays, and one of the truly effective things he does is offensive rebound/put-back shots. Instead of giving up on a possession, (i.e. see someone else take a shot and immediately head back up the court to get set on defense), he’ll attack, slipping in amongst the unsuspecting would-be defensive rebounders to make a play at the ball. I love to watch him do it. I wish somebody ELSE would try that once in a while. Not naming any names…

Perhaps now Josh Smith is beginning to understand the responsibility placed on him as scorer. We needed him to finish those fast breaks, to keep driving to the hole. I know ‘Zo blocked his dunk attempt in fine fashion, but like Steve Smith said, he should have gone right back at him time after time. There’s no way you stop Josh if he’s determined to get to the basket, if he’s bringing it strong. Having said that, I look to see some improvement next game. Got to finish on the break strong.

By Clyde

November 19, 2006 10:28 PM | Link to this

Woody’s offensive scheme is just about as ineffective as Mike Shula’s. This team relies too much on isolations. We need more plays other than giving it to Joe so he can go one on one.

FIRE BILLY AND WOODY

By Clyde

November 19, 2006 10:35 PM | Link to this

And another thing. Its hard to ignore the all-star caliber seasons that Chris Paul and Deron Williams are having. They are two of the most exciting point guards in the league and Atlanta could sure use one of them right now.

FIRE BILLY AND WOODY

By Chris

November 20, 2006 08:30 AM | Link to this

Saturday night showed once again that we need a starting NBA point guard.

By G-Money

November 20, 2006 09:51 AM | Link to this

If we hadn’t seen the first 4 games, we’d be very, very excited about this year’s edition of the Hawks. We are all still fairly satisfied, but we know that there is big time upside potential. One must also realize that we agreed that it takes a healthy team for the Hawks to win. They need all their starters playing.

Which leads me to Speedy…While I am OK with a healthy Speedy, how did we get a Speedy with bum knees. I don’t think anyone heard about chronic knee pain coming in. Sometimes you can injure one part of your body by compensating for an injury to another. Do you think he hurt his knees compensating for his hand? I just had to ask the question.

By Astro Joe

November 20, 2006 10:11 AM | Link to this

G-Money, the hand bone is connected to the knee-bone. Didn’t you take high school science?

When your best player specualtes out loud that some teammates may have become complacent due to early team success, you can’t help but question the leadership. And exactly who would be displaying that type of attitude? Sheledn who only gets 20 minutes a game? Salim who hasn’t been getting that much? Childress? Zaza? Smith?

We need marvin back if for no other reason than to provide Woody with the ability to bench players while not sacrificing the chances of winning a game. If there is someone on this team who thought they had “made it” after a 4-1 record, then that person needs to soend a lot of time on the bench. And ultimately, they may need to be traded.

By Astro Joe

November 20, 2006 11:07 AM | Link to this

[http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/19/sports/basketball/19hoop.html?ex=1164603600&en=f20f0b44e5383cae&ei=5070&emc=eta1]

Nice article about our Atlanta Hawks from no less than The New York Times.

By mykhalc

November 20, 2006 01:56 PM | Link to this

G-MONEY, i feel you about SPEEDY. again, i have not seen any of the games but his boxscore looks horrible!!! and like you, i understand he’s workin’ his way back to health but i think all of us are surprised about this knee thing. the hand i get, the knee seems like it’s somethin’ more than him just being outta BB shape!!?? i hope that even in his limited minutes he begins to show the kinda skills that he’s expected to bring. ‘cause right now, it’s NOT showin’!!!