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Friday, September 12, 2008

Can Ryan beat the Cover-Two

Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan won his first start and so did rookie QB Joe Flacco in Baltimore.

Since 1970, the only rookie QBs to lead their teams to victories in the first two games of the season are John Elway (1983) and Ryan Leaf (1998).

Which one is going to be Elway and which will be Leaf, who’s out of football? I’m sure you Falcons fans are hoping Ryan is closer to Elway than Leaf.

Also, during the Super Bowl era, Atlanta and Baltimore were the first teams to win their first game of a season with a rookie starting quarterback and a rookie head coach, Mike Smith in Atlanta and John Harbaugh in B-more.

Tampa Bay figures to provide a much stiffer test for Ryan that Detroit did last week. The Bucs’ defense is coordinated by Monte Kiffin, who with Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy, popularized the Cover Two defense in the 1990s.

It’s the classic read and react attack. You need a lot of speed on defense to cover ground quickly.

Basically, in that scheme the four defensive linemen rush, the cornerbacks and three linebackers drop into coverage and try to track intermediate receivers through their zones while the two safeties drop deep.

There’s a daring way to beat the Cover-Two.

Green Bay under Mike Holmgren and offensive coordinator Sherman Lewis, loved to see the Cover 2 coming.

To beat the attack, they’d send two wide outs up the sidelines and sneak a fast tight end up the middle seam. (First it was tight end Jackie Harris, followed by Mark Chmura and then Bubba Franks, before he lost his speed.)

The quarterback has to have a nice arm to drill the deep pass. With the two outside guys streaking, the safeties have to make a choice. Take the outside guys or leave the middle open.

Not sure if Ryan is ready to make this read. We’ll all find out on Sunday.

Martrez Milner would be the idea speed tight end to beat the Cover Two, but he’s been nicked up and has demoted behind Ben Hartsock and Justin Peelle.

Perhaps the Falcons can sneak the slot receiver - maybe Harry Douglas - up the midde seam to be beat the Cover Two.

The Bucs are going to load up to stop RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood and Ryan is going to have to make some nice throws. We’ll know much more about the quarterback of the future after this game, than we did after that 13 pass outing against the meek Detroit Lions.

Ryan’s first game was like a pop quiz, this one against Kiffin’s unit will be like an early peek at the mid-term.

Will Ryan pass his early mid-term exam? Will CB Ronde Barber and ex-Georgia Bulldog Jermaine Phillips make it a long day for him? All bets are off if Turner can break loose for 220 yards again because then Ryan won’t have to pass.

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