AJC.com > Blogs > Get Schooled > Archives > 2006 > March > 17 > Entry
Dropout Crisis Exaggerated?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A recent op-ed piece in Education Week caught my eye. The author says the dropout crisis is exaggerated. “The new conventional wisdom seems to have exaggerated the African-American dropout rate by a remarkable amount - doubling it from 25 percent to 50 percent.” Lawrence Mishel heads a group called the Economic Policy Institute and a similar version of his piece is online here.
The organization’s Web site says it is a nonpartisan think tank. You can judge for yourself.
Mishel takes those of us to task who simply subtract the number of graduating seniors from the ninth grade class three years earlier and assume everybody else quit. Economists frown on this method - understandably, I don’t like it either - and prefer census data. Education researchers dismiss this information saying people lie on census surveys about their education background, the author says.
I don’t think anyone believes the often-quoted Georgia graduation rate of 65 percent in 2004 is based on the soundest data. (It does take into account where a student goes after leaving so schools aren’t penalized for transfers and other situations where the child not quit school altogether.) But the dropout rates reported by schools are often ridiculously low - 6 or 7 percent. What exactly happens to some kids who stop coming to school is unknown. They slip away without notice.
The author does not say the dropout rate isn’t a problem, just that it has improved nationally over time and is not as dire as is often portrayed.
Thoughts?





DEL.ICIO.US


Comments
Commenting is now closed for this entry.
By Nikole
March 17, 2006 12:03 PM | Link to this
I do agree to some extent. I also find that drop out rates seem worse than they are when people that get GEDs are not included. I think about people considering my husband, a man who secured a basketball scholarship to college, a sailor in the US Navy and an aspiring business owner, as a drop out or a failure, despite all the success he has experienced and is on the verge of experiencing, all due to his GED.
By oldteacher
March 17, 2006 12:29 PM | Link to this
I too wish that GED’s were counted in this. My youngest brother was one of those that would have benefited from a Pheonix High School. He dropped out of hs but went on to get his GED. He is still (at age 48) considered to be a hs drop out.
By V for Vendetta
March 17, 2006 12:38 PM | Link to this
Who cares about the kids who drop out? I’m more worried about educating the kids who are happy to be here and actually want a decent future.
By Leia
March 17, 2006 01:00 PM | Link to this
V - we care about the drop-outs because we don’t want to support them or their children with our tax money! Maybe if we could find a way to get them back into school and graduate, they would be less likely to carjack us at the gas station.
By Gubment schools
March 17, 2006 01:02 PM | Link to this
I agree with V!
By the way (OT), a kid (a known thuglet) who is in another third grade class at my kid’s school brought bullets to school yesterday. Hopefully, the cops will raid the home of his parents or grandparents or aunt or whoever he stays with now. How ridiculous.
Great blog topic for the future… what’s the best thing to do with third grade thuglets who bring bullets to school?
By Lee
March 17, 2006 01:10 PM | Link to this
Let’s see, on one hand, we have reports of drop out rates as high as 45%. Schools say drop out rate is a “rediculously low” 6-7%. Schools get funding based on attendance.
You don’t think anyone is “cooking the books” do you? Nah…….
You good citizens and taxpayers don’t need to concern yourselves with that, just be thankful the football team made the playoffs….
By oldteacher
March 17, 2006 01:15 PM | Link to this
If a child bring anything like that to our school (no matter what grade) they are suspended and tribunaled. They could be suspended for up to a year. I think they should be expelled forever.
By Lee
March 17, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this
Regarding the comment about the “thuglet” who brought bullets to school;
When I was in school 30 or so years ago, just about every male student carried a pocket knife from 1st to 12th grade. During deer season, just about every pickup truck in the parking lot had an old 30-30 or shotgun in the gun rack in the back window. Heck, we even had a rifle team that competed using .22 cal rifles - and yes, we practiced shooting on school grounds.
We didn’t have any stabbings, shootings, or any other nonsense such as that. If you had a problem with someone, you both could go to the PE teacher who would let you “put on the gloves.” (Boxing gloves, that is. Big, thick, heavy gloves that would wear you out in about 30 seconds.)
Nowadays, a student draws a picture of a gun and everyone goes into convulsions. Maybe if the schools would have honest conversations with students about weapons instead of suspending 3rd grade girls who brought a Tweety Bird keychain to school, you wouldn’t have this problem. The NRA has an excellent “Eddie Eagle” gun safety program, but schools wont allow them on campus.
A moment of silence, please, in remembrance of “the death of common sense.”
By Mike
March 17, 2006 01:30 PM | Link to this
I agree with V. I could care less about kids that decide to drop out. I say let them. Secondly, in response to Leia your comments is what is wrong with american today. Our tax dollers SHOULD NOT go to support them, welfare should be axed, if these people are to lazy to stay in school then why should we help. If they need help they should go to their family. The oppertunities are out there if you want them I am not willing to spend my money on people who can’t see that.
By Mike
March 17, 2006 01:32 PM | Link to this
Guns don’t kill people. Ted Kennedy’s car does.
By Amazed (Independent Woman)
March 17, 2006 01:33 PM | Link to this
I’m an Analyst, who spends all day preparing statistical data for a very large industry. The quality of the data comes up in conversations with my team daily. Our opinions about how to handle inconsistencies vary, depends upon the situation or the customer who will see the output. I’m going to have to agree with this study, because subtracting the number of 9th graders from the number of graduating Senior’s – just does not take into account enough of the variables.
Things to consider: 1. Did the child register at another school or school system (in-state/out of state) 2. Did the child take the GED in 11th grade – this child could be counted as a graduate. It depends upon the person preparing the data. 3. Did they count students who graduated early or not at all? 4. Were the students who may have died during the 3year time span, removed? 5. Were the looking at student ID or using the last names to do a comparison? If so, name changes could have taken place.
If you say in 2003 there were 290 9th graders, but now there are only 260. We can draw the conclusion that 30 dropped out. But, who is to say.
The only true way to know is to make a comprehensive list of those we believe are drop outs and find out what happened. I think this would make a great Case Study for education.
By V for Vendetta
March 17, 2006 01:41 PM | Link to this
Leia, Yeah I get it. We pay for them and their dumb kids and all that. It’s a lose/lose situation. They are either going to be trouble all through school and distract the kids who are there for a decent education (ok, maybe we can “convert 1% of them), or they are going to be a tax black hole sucking all of our money away to support them or pay for their jail space.
Since being human is all about instant gratification, I say get rid of them now and I will worry about paying for them later. Social Darwinism I say.
By labmom
March 17, 2006 01:51 PM | Link to this
I am so tired of the “Tweety-Bird” story. First of all, the news guys didn’t give the whole story. It wouldn’t have painted the child as a sympathetic character. Correction-It was a middle schooler. The child was whacking other students with it, and had been told repeatedly to put it away before she was suspended. Of course, because of privacy issues, the school system is not able to tell their side of any story. So many times, parents with an “issue” get all the airtime.
By Michele at AFT
March 17, 2006 02:02 PM | Link to this
It seems like the comments are getting a little off topic and away from the important issue you raise. We need to have good data on graduation rates so that we know how public schools are doing. Our blog talked about this issue a few days ago-check it out.
http://www.letsgetitright.org/blog/2006/03/thegreatgraduationratedeba.html
By Lee
March 17, 2006 02:13 PM | Link to this
Labmom, I don’t know which Tweety Bird story you’re referring to, but the one I read about related to a nine year old girl who merely possessed a small keychain. The principal suspended her for having a weapon. I have also read newspaper accounts of students suspended for merely drawing a gun on a paper. Read the comments above, we had posters who wanted to “raid this child’s home” and who would “suspend this child for the entire year” just for having bullets.
I’m tired too. I’m tired of administrators who make $80-100k per year who hide behind these “zero tolerance” policies and will not make a decision. I’m tired of paying $12k per year for private school tuition because teachers, administrators, and politicians have screwed the schools up so bad, that no one can learn.
But hey, the football team made the playoffs…..
By Amazed (Independent Woman)
March 17, 2006 02:24 PM | Link to this
Schools get just as much airtime, if not more, as a parent with a complaint. Stop feeding the myth.
If I had a dollar for the days, my daughter told me that someone in her class, hit someone with something - I would not be rich, but I could by a round trip ticket to Vegas during peak season.
It would have been standard practice to just take Tweety away until the end of the year.
As for students being kicked out of school(for behavior or not wanting to be there), I wish it was that easy to get rid of a teacher, as well. I would never advocate kicking a student out permanently, because of discipline or not wanting to attend. They are children, which is why we send them to school to learn and why we do not allow them to VOTE. We make the decision to send our children under 18 to school, because we know what is good for them.
If my child had been allowed to VOTE as to whether or not she would attend school, she would have chose not to attend in Kindergarten. At 11, she would rather attend only 3 or 6 months out of the year and she is a straight A student.
These are kids, they do not know, what is good for them. An education does not mean anything to them at early stages in life. I consider 16 too early to make life changing decisions, such as dropping out of school. Many 21 year olds are making bad decisions, when it comes to life. Every bad decision has a consequence and down the line it will cost someone something. I like to head things off at the beginning, so that the problems at the end of the line are shorter. Meaning if you educated them now, you will have fewer expenses (jail, welfare, homeless) - but some of you would rather pay the bulk at the end. It cost more to Jail, than it does to educate. Crime also means higher cost for other things.
By Tammy
March 17, 2006 02:28 PM | Link to this
It’s always lovely to read where people blame teachers, administrators, and politicians for “zero tolerance” policies. Doesn’t anyone remember Columbine or any of the other school shootings that are in the news? While zero tolerance policies really have no effect on children who are hell bent on bringing weapons to school with the intent to kill others, those same policies really have brought to light a growing problem among the youth of today. They are angry at the world, angry at their parents, and angry at their peers.
By Patti Ghezzi
March 17, 2006 02:43 PM | Link to this
Hey all, please save your zero tolerance comments for a future post. I’ll put it up first thing Monday a.m. Promise!
By jim d
March 17, 2006 02:57 PM | Link to this
I’m not too sure the methods used to calculate dropouts is that bad.
Let’s add in all the kids that move to the US and attend high school after the head count in the ninth grade.
Then let’s consider kids that enter the ninth grade leave, where they go is of little consequence. If they re-enter another HS they are still counted as graduates, provided they graduate.
The one unknown that I question is if kids that leave for private schools are counted as dropouts? With the enormous growth in private schools over the past decade this would amount to some pretty staggering figures.
By Tiffany
March 17, 2006 03:04 PM | Link to this
Mike at AJC, good job bringing the posts back on topic. WD over on another blog could use your tips to insure the integrity of your work.
My opinion - First, to another post, GED’s should never be considered as High School Graduates. They are NOT High School Graduates, they actually LEFT high school, then later went on to take a GED test.
High School Drop Out statistics are intended to count HIGH SCHOOL DROP OUTS. Now, you can have a sub-statistic that shows how many complete the GED program if you are interested. When you balance your checking account, you don’t include how many tic tacs you have do you? No, because it’s the checking account balance you are looking to calculate, not a tic tac balance.
Overall, I agree there are certainly better ways out there to improve upon all methods of statistics, however, I don’t believe that’s where the problem is.
There are alot of drop outs, and these GENERALLY don’t end up as major contributors to society, and most become a burden to society in some form. That’s the cold and hard to swallow truth for many.
I personally don’t believe “they slip away without notice”, we do notice. We pay taxes, we support school programs, we contribute to many programs, all while managing our day to day lives, children, careers, and community involvement. Wow, we’re expected to manage it all huh? Then if you see Billy in a neighborhood not doing well or he drops out of high school, you can’t say he “slips through without being noticed”. So we are supposed to be responsible for all of our kids and lives and be 100% responsible for theirs when it isn’t perfect, including completely managing their education? I’ll take that on, but I won’t address how we calculate the total. I’ll address who is in a high risk category and identify commonalities, and then it will all begin.
If we want to truly reduce drop out rates, (and not just spend money and time trying to be creative with statistics to make them look better when we know how terrible it is just by exploring communities), then we will address the cause and look more closely at the reasons these kids end up in these homes. Reasons include un-wed pregnancies, welfare dependancy as many many children learn to depend on the “system” from their parents, and children not learning the importance of FINISHING things, taking the easy way out. We are spending too much time looking at the results of a problem, instead of looking at the actual problem.
This problem can’t be addressed by just changing the way the stats are counted. High School drop outs is a big deal. We should really focus on how to fix it, and it won’t be fixed in a year or so, it will include making tough, long term, and well thought out decisions that will address the cause, including impacting the major influences of those in a “high risk” category for dropping out. We need to identify the drop outs and what they all have in common, THEN ADDRESS THOSE ISSUES. High School Drop outs is the result of other problems. But…isn’t easier to count the beans than it is to look at where the beans are coming from? We tend to be afraid of addressing the real issues.
By Susie
March 17, 2006 03:08 PM | Link to this
Since dropping out of school causes you to lose your drivers license, wouldn’t the DMV have the numbers of people whose licenses they’ve yanked for that reason?
Leia, we are probably already supporting the dropouts and their kids before they drop out, so what difference does it really make?
By jim d
March 17, 2006 03:13 PM | Link to this
Tiff,
I find it difficult at best to resolve an issue when one doesn’t know the scope of the problem..
The stats are important when considering the scope. We’re not talking beans or dollars here, we’re talking about a childs life. To me that warrants a very careful look.
By jim d
March 17, 2006 03:18 PM | Link to this
Just one question for everyone that has a problem accepting the current stats.
How many of you would be screaming your heads off if kids were tracked on a national data base all the way through their school career?
By Amazed (Independent Woman)
March 17, 2006 03:25 PM | Link to this
If all the school systems in the USA are not counting the numbers in the same way, then where they re-enter school would matter. It’s possible, a kid is being counted as a drop out in GA, but graduated in CA - this person is being counted twice. The south has long been none as the region with the highest drop outs.
Unless each child is using a unique identifier, like SSN - we have no true method of counting. However, not all school systems use the SSN and not all students have one or a valid one. One unique identifier to track each child across the country, would still cause problems. How, another school system wants to keep the funds and forgets to remove the child from their role.
Then you have to take into account those who did not make it to 11th grade, but were retained in 10th. They were counted in 9th, but did not graduate with their class. I guess this child would be a dropout, if the correct method is not being used.
If there is not a true method in place and consistent across the board, you will have problems.
And we know most of these states, school systems and other entities are using their own method. Most can’t track what is happening everyday in their schools, so I don’t expect them to track dropouts accurately.
By Nikole
March 17, 2006 03:30 PM | Link to this
Tiffany-For the record, my husband did not “drop out”. He decided in 11th grade that he was not going to be able to graduate on time. So he took the Ged in lieu of graduating.
By tiff
March 17, 2006 03:34 PM | Link to this
It is not literal comparison, it is the relationship between the items used within an analogy that indicates the connection of the two items mentioned in the post, ie (tic tacs are to a checking account as High School Graduates are to GED completers….not connected/not related/different).
I agree there are many ways to calculate statistics, and most stats can be improved. When you study statistics it is apparent you can take the same data and massage it to make that same data appear to contradict itself. The beauty of statistics.
I don’t disagree that HOW we count could be improved. But I can’t jump on the bandwagon of “stats reform” without identifying the real issues, which run much deeper. Many folks just want a cause without really looking deeper to make a true improvement. Yes, we must understand the full scope, while we recognize what we will use the scope for.
It is true that some folks that read the discrepancy would think that #’s were just being inflated “because”, and therefore jump at saying the problem isn’t what “they” say it is, therefore not addressing the problem, “there ‘the man’ is trying to keep me down again”. The masses absolutely have this tendency, (hence the success of politicians that only talk about the hot buttons without revealing all the facts in order to get people on his bandwagon). We must challenge ourselves to look at the big picture and not have a knee jerk reaction, which is what many rely on when publishing.
Again, it is appreciated that you monitor and participate on topic in your blog. It insures the integrity and the purpose.
By jim d
March 17, 2006 03:48 PM | Link to this
Amazed,
It could be done very simply. I even believe there has been some talk. But then you run into problems with counting and tracking kids at private schools and those being home schooled. Those two groups of people form a pretty strong opposition to it ever happening.
By Amazed (Independent Woman)
March 17, 2006 04:00 PM | Link to this
Jim,
I don’t agree with the way the stats were counted and I do not have a problem with a national tracking system. It would only help to ensure the numbers for everything is correct - no gaurantee, but it would help.
A GED should be counted, don’t keep punishing people for past decisions. You would be amazed at how many people with GED’s are more knowledgeable than people with high school diploma’s and college degrees. There were several Honor students in my Senior class, who did not complete highschool. But, received a GED and went onto college and have degree’s.
In today’s society a highschool diploma is equal to a GED, because all the best paying jobs require a college degree or higher. If you get a highschool diploma, you make the same salary as a person with a GED. Those my dear are the facts.
By Nikole
March 17, 2006 04:23 PM | Link to this
The point is that the “crisis” is exagerrated when you are not taking things like GEDs into account. Such a high drop out rate equals failure to many and it should be noted that many that do not traditionally finish high school are not failures. There needs to be a better method for determining drop outs and once there is, the crisis does not seem to be much of a crisis.
By cp
March 17, 2006 04:44 PM | Link to this
Tiff,
You are missing the point on the GED. High School dropout is a catch-all term for uneducated. We’re trying to determine which kids have fallen through the cracks and somehow not recieved the minimum education level — i.e. High School graduate. Maybe if we included “or equivalent” it would make more sense to you.
Surely we should include GEDs, home school graduates and private school graduates and adjust for incoming transfers. I don’t see why these numbers are so hard to get. What’s the problem?
BTW. 100% - 65% = 35%
By SET
March 20, 2006 10:02 AM | Link to this
In CA our drop out rates are suspect and don’t include the walk aways - those who dissapear into the juvenile prisons - and the dead. I believe they are counted by those who check out as in expelled or requiring some administrative measure to get them out.
It would be a good idea if a driver’s license or learner’s permit for those under 18 required a computer linked school endorsement. We are just getting around to computer linking car insurance to car registrations. Our school systems really have no idea what children exist in the state, who or how many are in the private schools are homeschooled.
The state bureaucracy dislikes (hates) home schooling (because of financial disincentives) so they might decide when the computers are up to it to make them all register with the county board of education (which handles the “stray” kids who are expelled from the school districts - or are in juvenile hall).
I am certain that the dropout rates - especially the minority dropout rates - are heavily discounted. If the true rates were published it would be more clear what failures the schools are to the minority students. It might increase pressure to provide vocational ed again like CA used to in the 1960’s. True stats might help the left half of the bell curve get more of the education budget which I think they are cheated out of because all of the money is being spent on the disgracefull one-size-fits-all public schools that no longer work.
The new graduation exit exam - this is the first year if they actually enforce it - was intended to shine a light on the fact that the schools were “graduating” those who can’t read and count (no science tested). The democratic party and the education bureaucracy reduced the pass level from 10th grade to 8th grade and now are mightily trying to reduce the standards further or “postpone” implementation of the test. This June will be a culmination of that battle. I suspect they will try to cook the stats on that too by not counting the students who walk away before the graduation ceremony never having passed the test.
A true dropout rate would account for all students who started 1st grade who did not graduate 12th and did not transfer records to another school. If deaths could be posted and accounted for, fine. Those who go to prison or mental hospitals (and in my job I see many men 40 and up who have been institutionalized in both since puberty) should be treated as a drop out.
The whole point of an honest rate is to be able to compare schools and to flag schools that are doing better or worse with the same demographic. We already do this with the standardized math and verbal scores. We can compare one school to another with 8th or 10th grade math and verbal scores, ranked against similar demographic schools. The schools are sorted by race composition and by percentage of poverty level students.