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Thursday, January 8, 2009
If Florida wins, can SEC claim to be best conference?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Miami Gardens, Fla.—It’s getting close to kickoff and I am set up in the press box at Dolphin Stadium and ready to blog with you during the BCS championship game between No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 Florida.
On the way down here I stopped off at a television studio and did a segment about the game for the NFL Network. The host, Paul Burmeister, asked me an interesting question: Does the winner of this national championship game get to claim that its conference is the best in college football?
Early in this season it became pretty evident that the SEC was not going to have a vintage year. Tennessee, Auburn, and LSU were all going to be down. Mississippi State, which won eight games last season, was struggling. Georgia, rated preseason No. 1, did not live up to expectations.
The Big 12, meanwhile, was scoring points in record numbers and had the best group of quarterbacks in the country. For several weeks the Big 12 game of the week was must-see TV. ESPN’s College Game Day set up permanent residence there. By the end of the season it was pretty much a given that the Big 12 was superior to the SEC.
But if Florida, the SEC champion, beats Oklahoma, the Big 12 champion, tonight does that perception change? Ole Miss beat Texas Tech, another high scoring team, pretty handily in the Cotton Bowl. In the only other SEC-Big 12 matchup of this season, Texas beat a very bad Arkansas team.
That would give the SEC three straight national championships and salvage what has been a tough year for the league, relative to what was expected in preseason. Remember that a lot of folks had four SEC teams ranked in the Top 10 in preseason, and that didn’t even count Alabama.
So I put it to you as we get a little closer to kickoff? If Florida, the SEC’s best, beats Oklahoma, the Big 12’s best, does the SEC still get to call itself the best conference in college football?
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Gators will win it all, 35-31
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Fort Lauderdale, Fla.—We’ve been talking about this game since Dec.7 and now it is finally time for No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 Florida to play for the BCS national championship. I can’t wait for the kickoff to finally get here.
Check back right before kickoff and I’ll give you some of the sights and sounds at Dolphin Stadium along with some final thoughts. During the game I’ll be blogging live so jump on if you have questions or comments. It should be fun.
But for now, here is my final breakdown of the game:
OFFENSE
Oklahoma: There has never been an offense in college football quite like the one Oklahoma put on the field in 2008. The Sooners led the nation in scoring with an average of 54.0 points per game. They scored 702 points, which is another NCAA record. Quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman Trophy after a spectacular season when he completed 302 of 442 passing attempts (68.3 percent) for 4,464 yards and 48 touchdowns. Only twice this season was Oklahoma held to under 49 points. The Sooners had two runners to go over 1,000 yards but one of them, DeMarco Murray, will not play because of an injury. Murray was their best big-play man.
Florida: The Gators have had a pretty strong offense since their 31-30 loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27 in Gainesville. Florida, which faced 10 defenses ranked in the top 39 this season, scored 42 or more points in seven of their last eight regular season games. Quarterback Tim Tebow was incredible down the stretch as Florida finished fourth in the nation in scoring at 45.2 points per game. Tebow threw only two interceptions the entire season. If wide receiver Percy Harvin is as healthy as advertised and can go the whole game, the gap between these two offenses is not as wide as some would think. Tebow has a vast array of big plays guys like Louis Murphy, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and others who can take a short pass and turn it into a touchdown. That puts a tremendous amount of pressure on a defense.
ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA.
DEFENSE
Oklahoma: The Sooners finished tied for No. 58 (with Georgia) in scoring defense, giving up 24.2 points per game. The Sooners struggled against some of the better offenses in the Big 12, giving up 45 points to Texas in their only loss and 41 in a 61-41 win over Oklahoma State. But some of those stats are misleading. Because of the fast-paced offense Oklahoma plays, the defense was on the field a lot. And because they dominated opponents, the second unit got a lot of playing time. Oklahoma’s defense had 42 sacks on the year and forced 32 turnovers. They will get after Tim Tebow on every play.
Florida: Florida had a young defense that only got better with each game. The Gators are much improved in the secondary, which was the weak spot a year ago, as safety Ahmad Black had six interceptions and cornerback Joe Haden had three. The emergence of freshman Janoris Jenkins as a big time corner has allowed Florida’s defense to be much more creative. Florida had 24 interceptions on the season. Florida has a big-time linebacker in Brandon Spikes who is the emotional leader of the defense. If he plays well early, the rest of the defense will feed off of his energy. Remember the big hit he put on Knowshon Moreno in the Georgia-Florida game? Look for one of those in the first quarter.
ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Oklahoma: Oklahoma’s weakness all season has been special teams. The Sooners have had to kick off a lot and have given up four touchdowns on kickoff returns. The kickoff return average (24.0) is ranked 106th nationally. Field goals (8 of 12) have sometimes been an adventure. The net punt return average (33.8) is one of the worst in the country. There is a lot of hidden yardage in special teams and Florida will be able to exploit this weakness.
Florida: Coach Urban Meyer is obsessive about the special teams. Here is where I think the Gators have the biggest advantage in this game. Brandon James is one of the top punt return men in the country (14.4 average) and has taken two back for touchdowns this season and four over the past two seasons. Look for Oklahoma to be creative with its punts in order not to give James a full head of steam with the ball. That sometimes causes bad kicks and lost field possession. James, by the way has also broken several long kickoff returns this season. If is as high scoring as everybody thinks, James will get a bunch of touches on kickoffs. Florida has blocked eight kicks this season. Look for them to try to get another one tonight.
ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
COACHING
Oklahoma: This is the fourth BCS championship game for Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. Oklahoma beat Florida State in the Orange Bowl for the 2000 national title. Oklahoma lost to LSU in the Sugar Bowl after the 2003 season and to Southern Cal after the 2004 season. Stoops comes into tonight’s contest having lost four straight BCS bowl games. The pressure is clearly on because many believe that this is his best team.
Florida: Florida coach Urban Meyer won a national championship in his second season (2006) as the head Gator. After dropping to 9-4 last season because a young defense, he rallied his team after a 31-30 loss to Ole Miss. Down the stretch the Gators dominated SEC competition like they used to do under Steve Spurrier. Meyer is one of the best in the country when it comes to preparing a game plan and accounting for all the little details that can mean the difference in winning and losing. But there is an X-Factor. Dan Mullen, the Florida offensive coordinator, was named the head coach at Mississippi State back in December but stayed on to work this game. A game like this can come down to the slightest edge. Is Florida less efficient on offense because Mullen has been distracted? We’ll see.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
THE X-FACTORS
Tim Tebow is motivated: Tebow is one of the most competitive football players I’ve seen in my 30 years of covering the sport. Yes, he laughed it off when Oklahoma’s Dominique Franks said that Tebow would be, at best, the fourth best quarterback in the Big 12. Privately, he can’t wait to get on that field tonight.
SEC Pride: There is a lot on the line for the SEC tonight. The league was hyped as the best at the beginning of the season but then Tennessee, Auburn, and LSU fell apart. Georgia started at No. 1 and did not meet expectations. The SEC has won two straight national championships and a third would allow the league to still call itself the best in college football. If Oklahoma wins, the Big 12 gets to pound its chest in the offseason.
Home Field: The tickets are supposed to be divided evenly, but there are a lot of Gators down here and on the Orange Bowl committee. Florida, which has 13 Miami area players and hopes to get more, should have something of a home field advantage.
Heisman Jinx: The Heisman Trophy winner is pulled in a lot of directions in December and all of that traveling can be a distraction. Some Heisman winners have a tough time coming back from the award and playing well when the national championship is on the line. We’ll see tonight if it has affected Sam Bradford, who very likely will be playing his last game for Oklahoma
FINAL ANALYSIS
With all due respect to Texas and Mack Brown, these were the two most dominating teams in college football at the end of the season. Both have Heisman Trophy winners at quarterback. Both are filled with future NFL talent. They are the championships of the best two college football conferences in the country this season.
These are the best two teams in the country when it comes to taking care of the football. Oklahoma has only nine turnovers this season to lead the nation. Florida had only 11 turnovers. So to me, the game will absolutely come down to which team makes the crucial mistake at the most critical period of the game. I believe that with Florida’s overall team speed, which is the best in the country, Oklahoma will make that critical mistake and Tebow, who was magnificent in the final quarter of the SEC championship game, will take advantage of it.
If you’re watching at home tonight, don’t leave your television set because something big may happen. This has a chance to be a game for the ages.
FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA 35, OKLAHOMA 31
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