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Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Can Florida hold Oklahoma to 31 points?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Today we will finally get away and head down to South Florida for the BCS championship game. It’s going to be a busy Thursday for us. Here is what is coming up:
On Thursday morning I’ll break down my five keys to the game and give you the final winner and the score. Then just before the kickoff I’ll bring you up to date on the atmosphere at Dolphin Stadium and share some final thoughts.
During the game I’ll be on-line providing commentary and at various times. If you have questions or comments of your own during the game, jump in and we’ll discuss. When it’s all over I’ll provide some post-game analysis and you can tell me where I was all wrong.
But today, as I prepare to get on Delta and head South, I still have five burning questions about the BCS championship game:
1. Can Florida hold Oklahoma to 31 points? The Sooners led the nation in scoring by averaging 54 points per game. They set an NCAA record with 702 points (97 touchdowns, 8 field goals). Only two teams held Oklahoma to less than 40 points this season. TCU had the nation’s No. 2 defense and Oklahoma beat the Horned Frogs 35-10. Texas held Oklahoma to 35 and scored 45 to win in Dallas back on Oct. 11. I think the magic number for Florida is 31. If Florida can hold Oklahoma to 31, it can score enough points to win against a Sooner defense that was No. 58 nationally (24.5 ppg).
The Gators have the nation’s No. 4 scoring defense, giving up only 12.8 points per game. Oklahoma has faced only one defense like Florida’s and that belonged to TCU, which gave up 11.3 points per game this season. I also look for Florida to try to sustain some drives and eat up some clock in an effort to limit Bradford’s possessions.
2. Is Percy Harvin REALLY at 90 percent? You saw during the SEC championship game that Florida’s offense is effected when No. 1 is not on the field. Fortunately for Florida a bunch of guys stepped up and made plays in the fourth quarter, especially Tim Tebow. But when Harvin is out there the defense really has to obsess about his location on every single play and it opens up opportunities for other players. The bottom line is that Harvin at 90 percent is better than just about everybody else at 100 percent. I’m hearing his speed in practice is just fine. The uncertainty is about his ability to cut off that tender ankle. If he can make those sharp cuts, then the Oklahoma defense is going to have some problems.
3. How will the loss of DeMarco Murray really effect Oklahoma? Chris Brown actually led the Sooners in rushing his season with 1,110 yards and 20 touchdowns. But one of the reasons Oklahoma closed with five straight games over 60 points is that Murray (1,002 yards rushing), had become the team’s best big-play runner. Murray is out of Thursday night’s game with a ruptured hamstring and a lot of big play potential goes with him. But don’t be surprised of Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson gives some extra carries to sophomore Mossis Madu (111 carries, 468 yards) in an effort to pop some big plays against the Florida defense.
4. Will Florida really be affected by the status of Dan Mullen? Mullen, the new head coach at Mississippi State, decided to stay on as offensive coordinator and call the plays in the BCS championship game. Steve Addazio, Florida’s offensive line coach, will take over as the coordinator after this game. Mullen and Tebow are very close and basically share the same brain when it comes to calling plays during the game. Does that change because Mullen might be distracted with the demands of his new job? Everybody is saying all the right things and everybody is trying to make this work. But what happens when the lights come on and the game starts?
5. How many turnovers will there be? If the teams hold true to form, not many. When it comes to taking care of the football, it’s hard to find two better teams than these. Oklahoma had only nine turnovers all season, which is the lowest total in the country. Florida had only 11 turnovers, the second lowest total. The quarterbacks are ridiculous in this area. Tebow threw the ball 268 times this season and had only two interceptions. Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford, the Heisman Trophy winner, threw it 442 times and had only six interceptions. These are the top two teams in the nation when it comes to turnover margin, which I believe is the most important stat in football. Oklahoma leads the nation with plus-23 (32 turnovers gained, 9 lost) while Florida is plus-22 (33 gained, 11 lost). If either team forces more than two turnovers in this game, it wins.
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