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Monday, December 15, 2008

Timing not good for Chizik at Auburn

I’m sure Gene Chizik is a fine fellow and there is no question that he did a good job as defensive coordinator at Auburn (2002-04) and at Texas (2005-06). I wish him the best as the new head coach at Auburn.

Having said all that, I have a bad, bad feeling about the future of the football program at Auburn University.

Understand that success for the head coach at Auburn has always been a function of timing.

Ralph “Shug” Jordan came in 1951 when Alabama was in an up-and-down phase under Harold “Red” Drew. In 1957 he led the Tigers to their first and only national championship. Good timing.

Alabama reacted to Auburn’s national title by bringing Paul “Bear” Bryant home from Texas A&M. Jordan stayed at Auburn until 1975 but the Tigers never won another SEC championship. Bryant won 13 SEC championships and six national championships in 25 years as Alabama’s coach.

Pat Dye came to Auburn in 1981 when Bryant was nearing the end of his legendary career. Dye beat Bryant 23-22 on Nov. 27, 1982. Shortly after that Bryant retired and Dye went on to win four SEC championships in the next seven years. Good timing.

Tommy Tuberville came to Auburn in 1999 in a year that Alabama won the SEC championship. But Mike DuBose self destructed in 2000 and so did the program, going through four coaches (DuBose, Dennis Franchione, Mike Price, Mike Shula) in the next seven years. Tuberville won 85 games in 10 years and beat Alabama seven out of 10 times. Good timing.

During Auburn’s recent coaching search the powers that be discovered that today the timing is not good to be the head coach of the Tigers. In just two years Nick Saban has built Alabama into a national championship contender. The Crimson Tide is at least two years ahead of schedule and for the first time since Gene Stallings left after the 1996 season, Alabama football speaks with one clear and authoritative voice.

Many fans were convinced the program had grown stale under Tuberville and that the school needed a rock star coach like Saban in order to inject new life into Auburn football. But no proven head coach of substance was going to touch the Auburn job in its current condition.

And what is that condition, you ask? If the presence of Saban and his powerhouse weren’t enough to shoo top-flight coaches away, it is a fact that Auburn is perceived in the college football community, rightly or wrongly, as a place where boosters, particularly one booster, has way too much power. Make one guy mad and nobody—not the athletics director, not the president, not the governor—can save you.

So Auburn was never going to get Steve Spurrier. It was never going to get Butch Davis. It was never going to get Will Muschamp. As of Friday night it had Turner Gill, who worked miracles at Buffalo, waiting for an offer. It never came. Jim Grobe of Wake Forest, who for my money is one of the top five coaches in the country, is very comfortable where he is. But I’ll bet he was willing to listen if somebody from Auburn wanted to have a serious conversation. That conversation never took place because Auburn had already settled on Chizik.

Chizik parlayed his good work at Auburn (the Tigers were 13-0 in 2004) and Texas (the Longhorns won the national championship in 2005) into the head coaching job at Iowa State. It’s a tough job but Dan McCarney showed you can win there. Chizik was 5-19 in two seasons.

Again, I hope it works out well for Auburn. But Tommy Tuberville was a proven coach who had a lousy year in 2008. It was his fault and he admitted that. He offered to fix it. His track record said he probably could have done it. And I’m sorry. You can show me all the documents you want. I ain’t buying the explanation that Tuberville suddenly resigned and Auburn, out of the goodness of its institutional heart, decided to pay him $5 million as a going away present.

You change coaches because you are certain that you can hire a pretty good upgrade. Gene Chizik may prove to be a significant upgrade before he is through at Auburn.

But on Dec. 15, 2008, as I look at the program at Alabama and the program at Auburn, the timing doesn’t seem very good right now to be the head coach of the Tigers. In fact, it looks pretty bad.

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