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Friday, December 5, 2008
Florida edges Alabama in an instant classic
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, here at the end we finally managed to pick a few games right. Georgia Tech did upset Georgia and Clemson did upset South Carolina so we were able to finish 9-1 which gives us an overall record of 92-48. Not great, but it has been that kind of season.
It’s hard to believe that December is here and we’re getting ready to watch one of the biggest games in SEC history. For all of my friends who want a playoff, No. 1 Alabama against No. 4 Florida is about as close to a national semifinal as you can get.
It should be fun, so let’s get right to the final edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast for 2008.
1. SEC championship: Alabama (12-0) vs. Florida (11-1): It is really tempting to pick Alabama because the Crimson Tide is an underdog as the No. 1 team in the nation. The Alabama players have been hearing all week about all of that great Florida speed and Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer, etc., etc. If I’m an Alabama player I want to shout: “Hey, we’re giving out scholarships, too!” Alabama is a very good football team and Nick Saban should be the national coach of the year for what he has done with this team. He and his staff have gotten every ounce of production out of Alabama’s talent.
But folks, Florida is really, really good. They woke up after the Ole Miss loss and started playing better than anybody in the country. I think they win not because of all that speed, but because of their defense and special teams. They lead the nation in turnover margin (plus-21). They have blocked eight kicks this season. I love the way Alabama has been able to impose their will on other teams because they are so strong up front on both sides of the ball. In the Dome, however, speed has the slight edge on power. This will come down to a big turnover or a big play on the special teams. Florida 21, Alabama 17.
2. ACC championship: Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. Boston College (9-3): For the second straight year these teams will meet for the conference title. Virginia Tech won a year ago but this year I think Boston College has the edge. Both teams will be very conservative because they have young quarterbacks and Top 10 defenses. Virginia Tech’s Tyrod Taylor is pretty special when he doesn’t turn the ball over. Ditto for Dominique Davis, who will be filling in for the injured Chris Crane at Boston College. Check the turnovers by the quarterbacks at the end of this game. That will be the difference. Boston College 14, Virginia Tech 10.
3. Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma (11-1) vs. Missouri (9-3): Missouri is in the Big 12 championship game with Oklahoma for the second straight year. And the Tigers are going to get beat again because QB Chase Daniel (3,880 yards, 34 TD), as good as he is, can’t keep up with Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford (4,080 yards, 46 TD), who will probably lock down the Heisman Trophy in this game tonight. Oklahoma is also playing for a spot in the BCS championship game. Both teams are awful against the pass. Oklahoma’s pass defense is ranked No. 98 while Missouri is 116. Both teams will score a lot of points. But nobody can keep up with the Sooners, who lead the nation in scoring (53.3 ppg). Oklahoma 52, Missouri 31.
4.Conference USA championship: East Carolina (8-4) at Tulsa (10-2): It’s been over 30 years since East Carolina has won any kind of conference championship but the Pirates of Skip Holtz really have their hands full today. Only Oklahoma has averaged more points per game this season than Tulsa (49.33 ppg). The Golden Hurricane offense is simply impossible to get off the field as they have converted 59 percent of third downs. Quarterback David Johnson has six games where he has thrown for four touchdowns or more. East Carolina QB Patrick Pinkney is good, having completed 70 percent of this passes in three of his last four games. But the Pirates just won’t be able to keep pace. Tulsa 45, East Carolina 31.
5. Southern Cal (10-1) at UCLA (4-7): Two years ago UCLA upset Southern Cal to knock the Trojans out of the BCS championship game. Today the Bruins can knock Southern Cal out of Rose Bowl date with Penn State. It’s not going to happen. In fact, look for Pete Carroll’s team to put a pretty significant number on UCLA because they believe (incorrectly) that they still have an outside shot at the BCS championship game. Southern Cal may have the best defense in the country but a bad schedule and a loss to Oregon State way back on Sept. 25 will keep them out of the big game. Southern Cal 52, UCLA 14.
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