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November 2008
Georgia Tech will shock Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Hope everybody had a great Thanksgiving and got their batteries charged up for the last two weeks of the regular season. After what happened at the end of 2007, I’m convinced that we still have at least one and maybe two shockers ahead of us. One of them might happen on Saturday.
Went 7-3 last week because I picked Vanderbilt over Tennessee, LSU over Ole Miss, and Maryland over Florida State. That gives us a record of 83-47 on the year. So let’s get on with the Holiday version of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Georgia Tech (8-3) at Georgia (9-2): On paper, Georgia should win this one. The Bulldogs are playing at home. There is more overall talent except on the defensive front, where Tech has an edge with Michael Johnson (In case you haven’t noticed, he’s a grown man). Georgia has a chance to win its 10th game and all but lock up a spot in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day if they can beat Georgia Tech for the eighth straight time. All logic says go with Georgia. But why do I get the feeling that Georgia Tech is more excited about playing this game than Georgia? The Bulldogs have just gotten by in its last two games against Kentucky and Auburn. And it seems like something went out of this team when it got its collective butts kicked against Florida on Nov. 1. Georgia Tech showed what is possible when the Yellow Jackets rolled up 472 yards rushing against Miami. It says here that Georgia Tech pulls off the upset and Paul Johnson puts some life back into the rivalry. Georgia Tech 28, Georgia 24.
2. Auburn (5-6) at Alabama (11-0): All the pressure is on Alabama to break its six-game losing streak and stay No. 1 until next week’s SEC championship game with Florida. If Auburn’s offense was just okay, it would be tempting to pick the Tigers because coach Tommy Tuberville has always been pretty good in these kinds of games. But Alabama is so good on the offensive and defensive lines that they have the ability to wear teams down. That is what will happen in Saturday’s Iron Bowl and Alabama will march to 12-0 and a date next week in Atlanta. Alabama 24, Auburn 14.
3. Florida (10-1) at Florida State (8-3): Getting out of Tallahassee with a win has never been easy for the Gators. And when they are playing the following week for the SEC championship, it’s been virtually impossible. Five times the Gators have gone to Tallahassee the week before the SEC championship game. Florida is 1-3-1 in those games. Florida State impressed me with its 37-3 road win at Maryland last week. But the Seminoles just don’t have enough weapons to keep pace with the speedy Gators. Florida 31, Florida State 21.
4. Oklahoma (10-2) at Oklahoma State (9-2): Earlier this week Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said he was done politicking for the BCS voters. That’s because if the Sooners lose to the Cowboys Saturday night, argument will be moot. And the Cowboys know how to play this game tough in Stillwater. In 2006 Oklahoma hung on 27-21. In 2004 the Cowboys missed a tying field goal at the buzzer and lost 38-35. In 2002 Oklahoma State knocked off No. 3 Oklahoma 38-28. With quarterback Zac Robinson, wide receiver Dez Byrant and running back Kendall Hunter (130.36 ypg), the Cowboys are one of the most balanced teams in the country. Oklahoma invested a lot of energy into last week’s win over Texas Tech. Is there an upset here? I was tempted to say yes until I discovered that Oklahoma State had the No. 105 pass defense in the country (259.27 ypg). Oklahoma 31, Oklahoma State 24.
5. Oregon (8-3) at Oregon State (8-3): A lot of people are going to be watching the annual Civil War. A bunch of them will be pulling for Oregon. Take the Rose Bowl, please. If Oregon State wins the Beavers will go to their first Rose Bowl since 1965. Normally that would be a great story line but waiting in Pasadena will be Penn State, which beat the Beavers 45-14 back in September. Try to sell that game. If Oregon State loses, then Southern Cal will go to the Rose Bowl if it can beat UCLA next week. Mike Riley has done a very good job with Oregon State after starting 0-2. The Beavers may be without running back Quizz Rodgers, the Pac-10 leader in rushing (113.9 ypg). Still, I like Oregon State. Oregon State 24, Oregon 20.
6. Virginia (5-6) at Virginia Tech (7-4): Virginia Tech started its season with a 27-22 loss to East Carolina and there were moments this season when the Hokies appeared to be in real trouble. But Frank Beamer showed why he is a future Hall of Fame coach. If Virginia Tech beats Virginia in Blacksburg, the Hokies will go to the ACC championship game for the third time in four years. Georgia Tech is pulling for Virginia because a win by the Cavaliers, who have lost eight of nine to Virginia Tech, sends the Yellow Jackets to Tampa. The Hokies are not going to lose at home with this much on the line. Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 14.
7. South Carolina (7-4) at Clemson (6-5): There is a lot riding on this game for Clemson and interim coach Dabo Swinney. A win makes Clemson bowl eligible, which would be a pretty big deal after all the trouble this program has endured this season. Tiger athletics director Terry Don Phillips likes Swinney and would like to be able to make a strong case to hire him. I just like the way that QB Cullen Harper (Alpharetta) and running back James Davis (Atlanta) are starting to play now that they know the end of their college careers are near. It the last game in Death Valley for all the Clemson seniors and I think they will make it one to remember. Clemson 14, South Carolina 13.
8. Kentucky (6-5) at Tennessee (4-7): It’s going to be a very emotional day in Knoxville. It will be “Phillip Fulmer Day” as Fulmer coaches his final game for the Vols. Tennessee won’t go to a bowl but the seniors do have a chance to end their careers with a win and that should be motivation enough. Defensive coordinator John Chavis, who has done yeoman’s work this season, will have his guys finely tuned for this game. Kentucky will find it very difficult to score and Fulmer closes 17 years as the head Volunteer on a positive note. Tennessee 21, Kentucky 10.
9. Maryland (7-4) at Boston College (8-3): A week ago Maryland controlled its destiny in the ACC Atlantic. After a 37-3 loss to Florida State, the Terps can now only play the role of spoiler. If Boston College wins, the Eagles go to the ACC championship game. If Maryland wins, Florida State makes the trip to Tampa. Maryland has a puncher’s chance because Boston College will be without quarterback Chris Crane (shoulder). Freshman Dominique Davis is talented but is prone to turnovers. I think BC plays it close to the vest because of the nation’s No. 5 defense (269.64 ypg). The Eagles win and go to the ACC championship game for the second straight year. Boston College 17, Maryland 10.
10. Syracuse (3-8) at Cincinnati (9-2): Cincinnati has been a member of the Big East for only four seasons, but the Bearcats can go to their first BCS bowl (probably Orange) in history with a win today over the Orange. Syracuse upset Notre Dame (if you can call any win over Notre Dame an upset) last week 24-23 and would like to send Greg Robinson, their lame-duck coach, out with another win. The Bearcats win because they are at home and because they have a hot quarterback. Tony Pike completed 26 of 32 passes for 309 yards in last week’s 28-21 win over Pittsburgh. He will have a very good day against the nation’s 102nd defense (414.73 ypg). Cincinnati 31, Syracuse 10.
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I’m thankful for Furman Bisher
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’m up early before the rest of the house that is happily full of family. I’m enjoying my first cup of coffee and what long ago became my ritual on Thanksgiving morning: Reading Furman Bisher’s Thanksgiving column.
Furman, as he always does, sums of the time and spirit of the day perfectly. He leaves nothing important unsaid.
But if I may beg your indulgence and Furman’s for using his format, I want to add a few more things before the crowd wakes up and Thanksgiving Day begins:
I’m thankful for Furman Bisher. Over the past 24 years the man who I grew up reading and the man who made me want to be a sports writer has become colleague and is now a friend. How lucky am I? The calendar may say he is 90 but Bisher’s heart and intellect are younger than us all.
I’m thankful for you. We don’t always see eye to eye and when I’m wrong, you call me on it. Even when I’m not wrong, you try to convince me that I am. Some of you infuriate me. Some of you bring me to tears with your kindness. All of you are passionate about the game of college football. That is why this blog works so well. We can argue about who’s right or wrong, but there is no doubt that we all care about the game that we love.
And finally, I’m thankful for that game. With all of its flaws, and there are many, it is still an institution that brings friends and family together to celebrate a way of life. Consider this: My two best friends in the world are fraternity brothers Carl Brantley and Tom McMillen. College brought us together, but college football has kept us together some 30 years after we first met. We’re scattered all over the place but every year we make it a point to get together at the Georgia-Florida game. Those are precious weekends, regardless of the outcome of the game.
That is what college football does for us. And for that, all of us should be thankful today.
Happy Thanksgiving.
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Can the Georgia defense play “Assignment Football?”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Like you, we’re going to take Thanksgiving off to enjoy some time with family before we head into what is going to be a wild finish to this college football season. So today I’m going to do my Five Burning Questions as we head into the weekend:
1. Will the Georgia defense have enough discipline to play “assignment football” against Tech? During his time at Navy, Georgia Coach Paul Johnson had to figure out ways for smaller, slower players to get an advantage over bigger, faster players. One of the ways you do that on offense is by forcing the defense to play “assignment football.” Johnson’s offense is run with such precision that every member of the defense has to carry out his assignment on every play. If a defender tries to free lance and create a play outside of his assignment, it creates an opening for a big play. In short, Johnson has figured out a way to use the superior talent of an opposing defense AGAINST them. Georgia has been an undisciplined team at times on defense this season. Next to Florida, this will be their toughest challenge of the season for the Georgia defense.
2. Can Virginia help Georgia Tech get to the ACC championship game? If Virginia Tech loses to Virginia in Blacksburg then Georgia Tech will go to the ACC championship game. It’s not going to happen and here’s why. Hokies’ coach Frank Beamer has made up his mind to be very conservative in Saturday’s game. He has the nation’s No. 8 defense and the 109th offense. Virginia Tech turned the ball over five times in its first six possessions last week and had to fight to beat Duke. This will be a ugly game and Beamer usually finds a way to win ugly games.
3. Why isn’t Charlie Strong being mentioned for some of these head coaching jobs? The Florida defensive coordinator has done some of his very best work this season. In 2006 his defense was the anchor than enabled the Gators to win the national championship. Last season the defense was a liability because the Gators were so young. Now Florida is knocking on the door of another national title because this defense has gotten better each week and is now a strength on this team again. Florida is third in the nation in scoring defense (12. 0 ppg). The first team defense has not given up a touchdown since the LSU game on Oct. 11. Yes, Charlie is an African-American and that brings with it a set of issues that we have to discuss because there are now only four minority head coaches among 119 Division I-A schools. But the fact is that Charlie Strong is a damn good football coach and deserves a shot to be a head coach.
4. Is Les Miles going to be feeling some heat after this season? LSU looked pretty lost last week against Ole Miss. The Tigers should have enough athletes to beat Arkansas on Friday in Little Rock because the Hogs’ defense is so bad (No. 95 in scoring, 31.3 ppg). A win puts LSU at 8-4 and probably headed to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. The issue is going to be raised, fairly or not, that this was the first season that LSU had played without any of Nick Saban’s players. One year after winning the national championship, does Miles begin the 2009 season under some pressure? The LSU fans have gotten a little spoiled after the past four seasons, which includes 41 wins. How do they react? Do they follow LSU to the bowl game?
5. Does Auburn have any shot in Saturday’s game against Alabama? Auburn has beaten Alabama six straight times but in that stretch the Tigers of Tommy Tuberville have not faced an Alabama defense this good with an Auburn offense that is so bad. Tuberville has won a bunch of games like this by running the ball, playing very conservatively, and trying to keep the game close into the fourth quarter. Then he believes the other guy will make a mistake or his team will put together one drive to win the game. The problem in this game is that Alabama is not going to let Auburn run the ball. The Crimson Tide has the nation’s No. 3 rushing defense (75.1 ypg). They will force Auburn to throw and that could get ugly.
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SEC Champ, Oklahoma to play for BCS title
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Knowing full well that this whole thing can blow up in the next two weeks, here are my projections on for the BCS bowls. Understand that all of this can fall apart if Alabama loses to Auburn or Florida loses at Florida State on Saturday. I have to make some other assumptions, like Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State and Oregon State beating Oregon to advance to the Rose Bowl. If you see a flaw in the logic, let me know about it:
1. BCS championship: Alabama-Florida winner vs. Oklahoma: Even though Texas (10-1) and Oklahoma (10-1) are 2-3 in the BCS Standings, if Oklahoma beats No. 12 Oklahoma State (9-2) on Saturday, I believe they will jump over Texas in Sunday’s new BCS Standings. That’s because Texas is playing unranked Texas A&M (4-7). Oklahoma is already No. 2 in the computers and Texas is No. 4. Yeah, Texas beat Oklahoma (45-35) on a neutral field. Is it fair? Probably not. But that is what I think will happen.
Oklahoma will play No. 13 Missouri in the Big 12 championship game where a win puts the Sooners in South Florida for the BCS title. No. 1 Alabama (11-0) will obviously go if it beats Florida. It won’t matter if the Gators are No. 4 on championship Saturday. If they beat No. 1 Alabama they will jump over an idle Texas team and into the big game.
2. Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Oregon State: If you’re thinking these two teams have already played, you’re right. The Nittany Lions destroyed the Beavers 45-14 on Sept. 6 in Happy Valley. But if Oregon State (8-3) wins at home against Oregon (8-3) on Saturday, the Beavers finish in a tie for first place in the Pac-10 with No. 5 Southern Cal (9-1). Oregon State will get the trip to the Rose Bowl because it beat Southern Cal head to head (27-21) way back on Sept. 27. The only thing that will sell this game is the possibility that it could be Joe Paterno’s last as the Penn State coach.
3. Fiesta: Texas vs. Southern Cal: Because the Fiesta lost its designated host in the Big 12 champion (Oklahoma), it will get to replace the Sooners with Texas, which will be out to prove something after getting left out of the big game. The Fiesta will have to choose between No. 5 Southern Cal and No. 7 Utah (12-0) as the opponent. Assuming Southern Cal will beat Notre Dame and UCLA to finish 11-1 (and that’s a pretty easy assumption), the Fiesta gets the best matchup outside of the BCS championship game.
4. Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Florida loser vs. Utah: Because the Sugar Bowl loses its champion (SEC), it will pick the loser of the SEC championship game as a replacement team. The Fiesta will pick ahead of the Sugar so Southern Cal will be gone. The Sugar takes undefeated Utah. If Florida is on the other side with former Utes coach Urban Meyer, you have an instant story line.
5. Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati: This could change if Virginia beats Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on Saturday because then Georgia Tech (8-3) would go to the ACC championship game. But I don’t think that will happen and Virginia Tech (7-4) will beat Boston College in the ACC championship game to earn the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. Cincinnati (9-2) will beat Syracuse on Saturday to win the Big East and earn the first New Year’s Day bowl trip in its history.
BONUS PICKS:
Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Ohio State: If both Alabama and Florida get a spot in a BCS bowl, the Bulldogs are pretty much a lock to go to Orlando. Ohio State is pulling hard for Oregon on Saturday because if the Ducks beat the Beavers, then Southern Cal goes to the Rose Bowl. Then No. 10 Ohio State would get a BCS at-large bid either to the Fiesta or Sugar.
Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Nebraska: If the Yellow Jackets (8-3) beat Georgia on Saturday they could be in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. If Tech loses I’m projecting them into the Gator against Nebraska (7-4), assuming the Cornhuskers beat Colorado and finish 8-4. If Notre Dame (6-5) had not lost to Syracuse last Saturday, the Gator Bowl was prepared to take the Fighting Irish at 7-5. We are assuming, of course, that Note Dame will lose and lose big to Southern Cal on Saturday. If West Virginia (7-3) wins its last two games with Pittsburgh and South Florida to finish 9-3, the Gator could take the Mountaineers.
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SEC champ will still play in BCS title game
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. SEC champ will still play for the BCS title: I know some Florida fans who were nervous Sunday night when the new BCS Standings were released and the Gators were No. 4 behind Alabama, Texas, and Oklahoma. They were worried that if Florida beats No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6, they could get squeezed out when Texas and Oklahoma move into the top two spots and play in the big game.
First of all, what the Gators and their fans should be worried right now is Saturday’s trip to No. 20 Florida State. Consider this early warning stat: Florida has traveled to Tallahassee five times to play the week before appearing in the SEC championship game. The Gators are 1-3-1 in those games. Florida State was pretty impressive in beating Maryland on the road 37-3.
If Alabama beats Auburn on Saturday and then beats Florida, the Crimson Tide is obviously in. If Florida beats No. 20 and beats No. 1 they are in and here’s why: Remember that only one of the Big 12 teams ranked ahead of Florida can play in the Big 12 championship game. If No. 3 Oklahoma beats No. 12 Oklahoma State on Saturday, I think it will be the Sooners. The other Big 12 team will not be playing on Dec. 6. Remember last year when Georgia, who was idle on Championship Saturday, saw all those teams that played in conference championship games jump over them in the final standings? The same thing happens here. So if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 championship and Florida wins the SEC championship, the Gators will benefit from a better record (12-1) and jump over Texas (11-1) into No. 1 or No. 2.
I’ll break down top five teams in the BCS and how they can get to the big game in Tuesday’s blog.
2. If Georgia’s players are not concerned about Saturday’s game in Athens, they probably should be: Georgia Tech has a couple of big things going for them on Saturday against Georgia. No. 1, the Yellow Jackets are going to be very excited about playing this game. I could be wrong, but I just don’t get the sense that the Bulldogs are that jacked up about playing the state rival. No. 2, any team that can run for 472 yards against a pretty athletic defense like Miami’s is to be respected. Georgia has had a week off to get rested and to prepare for Tech’s option attack. And if Georgia plays with a lot of energy, the Bulldogs have more talent and should win. But if Georgia thinks it can get by on talent alone, it will be a long afternoon at Sanford Stadium.
3. Dabo Swinney is close to getting the Clemson job: Tommy Bowden is a good guy but there is no question that Clemson has been playing with a little more zip since Dabo Swinney took control of the program in October. The Tigers went on the road Saturday and beat Virginia to go 6-5. Clemson must beat South Carolina at Death Valley to qualify for a bowl because the Tigers had two Division I-AA teams on their schedule this season. If Clemson beats South Carolina, I think Swinney is a lock to get the job. If the Tigers lose but play tough, he still could get it.
4. Tennessee fans might want to rethink Mike Leach: Don’t get me wrong. I like to watch Leach’s Texas Tech teams play. And the Red Raiders have had a wonderful season. But Saturday night at Oklahoma it was time to play big boy football on the road and the Sooners destroyed Texas Tech 65-21. Understand that in the SEC you have to play three or four of these types of games every season. These are physical football games where finesse tends to get overwhelmed by brute strength. Alabama will be that kind of team as long as Nick Saban is there. Leach is a good coach but not a fit for Tennessee or the SEC.
5. Houston Nutt is going to be the SEC coach of the year: The guy that a portion of the Arkansas fan base ran out of town is probably going to take Ole Miss to a very good bowl. Nutt’s Rebels just destroyed LSU on Saturday and a win at home over Mississippi State probably puts them in the Cotton, Outback, or Chick-fil-A bowls. Yes, Nutt made some mistakes at Arkansas and he has been justly criticized for them. All I know is that he took a group of players who couldn’t get out of their own way last season and build them into a pretty good team—the only team to beat No. 4 Florida this season.
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Oklahoma will knock off No. 2 Texas Tech
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
There’s three weeks to go in the regular season and I have the feeling we have several more surprises left.
If No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Texas Tech both win out and finish 13-0, we’ll have a BCS national championship game that most folks will be able to live with. The Big 12 and the SEC have been the two best conferences in the country this season, so matching the undefeated champions would seem to make sense. Shoot, that game might even make the President elect happy and re-think his idea of an eight-team playoff.
Maybe not.
I got bit again by that whacky ACC last week with a 1-3 record. I know somebody has to win that league but for the life of me I can’t predict who. Georgia Tech is back in the mix in the Coastal Division after thumping Miami last night and sending a message to the boys in Athens wearing the Red and Black. The message: “We’re serious about this game and you’d better be, too.”
The other miss was Kentucky-Vandy. The Commodores won that one on the road and became bowl eligible for the first time since 1982. I’m telling you, if Clemson was smart they would hire Bobby Johnson. The only team to beat Vanderbilt (6-4) by more than 10 points this season was Florida (42-14) and right now the Gators are the best team in the land.
Last week’s 6-4 record gives us a mark of 76-44 for the season. So without further ado let’s go to the pre-Thanksgiving edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Texas Tech (10-0) at Oklahoma (9-1): My man Mark Schlabach tells me that Texas Tech is the real deal and will win this game despite the fact that Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is 59-2 at home in Norman. I see an Oklahoma team that is averaging more points per game (51.4 to 47.9) than Texas Tech with a quarterback (Sam Bradford) who has thrown for more touchdowns (38) than anybody in the country. Texas Tech has been a fun team to watch this season but I don’t see them winning on the road in a game with this much at stake. Oklahoma 42, Texas Tech 40.
2. Tennessee (3-7) at Vanderbilt (6-4): Now that Vanderbilt is heading to a bowl, they would like to put a little icing on the cake by beating Tennessee for the state championship. The Volunteers have had a week off to regroup and hopefully play one inspired game for their outgoing coach, Phillip Fulmer. Now that quarterback Chris Nickson is finally healthy, Vanderbilt looks much more comfortable on offense. Tennessee’s offense is anything but comfortable. In fact, it’s painful for others to watch and doesn’t figure to get better against a pretty good Vanderbilt defense. Vanderbilt 17, Tennessee 14.
3. Ole Miss (6-4) at LSU (7-3): One of two things is going to happen with LSU today against Ole Miss. Either the Tigers are going to use last week’s scare by Troy as a wakeup call, or they are just going to mail it in because the SEC championship is now off the table. This game comes down to the quarterbacks. If LSU’s Jarrett Lee continues his fourth quarter performance from last week, when he completed 11 of 14 passes, the Tigers will win. If Jevan Snead of Ole Miss gets hot, he can roll up some yards against a suspect LSU defense. LSU wins a hard fought game at home. LSU 24, Ole Miss 20.
4. The Citadel (4-7) at Florida (9-1): The only thing that is remotely interesting about this game is how long Tim Tebow stays on the field. The Gators need to keep winning impressively but they also want to get rested up for next week’s trip to Florida State. Florida puts this one away early in the second quarter and the drumbeat for Florida State and Alabama starts. Florida 65, The Citadel 0.
5. Clemson (5-5) at Virginia (5-5): Clemson is playing to get bowl eligible. Dabo Swinney is playing for a job. Clemson was pretty impressive last week in a 31-7 win over Duke. Quarterback Cullen Harper is starting to regain last year’s form with 785 yards passing in his last three games. Virginia will be favored a home but I’ve just got a hunch that the Tigers are going to pull the upset. Clemson 20, Virginia 17.
6. Florida State (7-3) at Maryland (7-3): Maryland is 5-0 at home this season and a victory over the Seminoles, combined with a Boston College loss to Wake Forest, will put the Terps in the ACC championship game. Maryland can still clinch the Atlantic Division by winning Saturday against Florida State and on Nov. 29 at Boston College. The key comes down to Maryland QB Chris Turner. If he doesn’t make a bunch of mistakes, the Terps will win. Maryland 24, Florida State 17.
7. Pittsburgh (7-2) at Cincinnati (8-2): Cincinnati impressed me by going on the road the last two weeks and beating West Virginia (26-23) and Louisville (28-20). The Bearcats are now in control in the Big East if they can beat Pittsburgh and Syracuse (2-8). Obviously Pittsburgh, with running back LeSean McCoy (115.89 ypg) provides the biggest challenge over the next two weeks. Cincinnati has never been to a New Year’s Day bowl in its history. Beat Pittsburgh, and the Bearcats will probably spend the Holidays at the Orange Bowl. Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 20.
8. Michigan State (9-2) at Penn State (10-1): Joe Paterno, 81, will not play for the national championship this season. But the Nittany Lions can take their coach to the Rose Bowl with a win today at home against Michigan State. No one will say it, but this could very well be Paterno’s last regular season game as the head coach at Penn State. Penn State 24, Michigan State 13.
9. BYU (10-1) at Utah (11-0): Utah doesn’t have very much on the line today, just the Mountain West championship, a berth in a BCS bowl, and a payday of $4.5 million. A loss probably puts the Utes into the Las Vegas or Poinsettia Bowl and Boise State, if it goes undefeated, gets the BCS berth. Brian Johnson is a very good run/pass threat and will take advantage of a BYU defense that has given up 145 points in its last five games. Utah 38, BYU 17.
10. Oregon State (7-3) at Arizona (6-4): If Oregon State can win at Arizona on Saturday and beat Oregon on Nov. 29, the Beavers will go to the Rose Bowl instead of Southern Cal. Arizona has played everybody tough at home, losing to Southern Cal (17-10) and Oregon (55-45). Oregon State has won five straight games in Tucson. On Saturday the Beavers will make it six. Oregon State 31, Arizona 20.
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Can Georgia Tech contain the Miami quarterbacks?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the last Saturday before Thanksgiving:
1. Can Georgia Tech contain the Miami quarterbacks? Miami has a couple of really good young quarterbacks in Robert Marve and Jacory Harris. Both have been named ACC Rookie of the Week twice during this season. Marve manages the game a little better. Harris more athletic and almost always makes plays when he is in there. Both throw the ball pretty well. But they are even scarier when they take off running. Georgia Tech’s defensive front will be the best Miami has seen this season. They will be able to handle the conventional running game. The question is whether or not Marve and Harris can break down containment and make plays with their feet. Tech will have to get after these guys and get them out of their comfort zones if Georgia Tech is going to have a chance tonight.
2. Did any of us see the Will Muschamp thing coming at Texas? In case you missed it, the former Georgia defensive back under Ray Goff has been named the head coach in waiting behind Mack Brown at Texas. Muschamp, who has also been the defensive coordinator at LSU and Auburn, gets a nice bump in pay to $900,000 and the promise that he’ll someday get the keys one of college football’s signature programs. Look for Brown, 57, to coach at least two more years before he takes over as athletics director at Texas. DeLoss Dodds, one of the very best athletics directors in the business, is thinking about retirement somewhere down the road. Then the chain of events will be put into place. Texas was hoping to wait a while to make this move but it had to be made now because Muschamp was going to get one of these open head coaching jobs.
3. What is the over/under on points for Florida vs. The Citadel? Florida wants to win the game impressively and the Gators certainly will do that. At the same time Urban Meyer doesn’t want to get anyone hurt with Florida State and Alabama coming up the next two weeks. If I’m the head Gator Tim Tebow gets two possessions and then John Brantley gets to captain the ship the rest of the way home. What’s the number? Let’s pick a nice round one. Like 60.
4. Does Ole Miss have a shot at LSU? All I know is that with two minutes left in the third quarter last Saturday LSU trailed Troy 31-3. The Tigers rallied to win 40-31. LSU is a little like Georgia. Now that the SEC championship is off the table it’s hard to keep the guys interested. LSU’s back seven on defense is still vulnerable to a quarterback with a hot hand. Is Jevan Snead good enough to rip that secondary? Houston Nutt already has one signature win (over Florida 31-30) on the road this season. Will he get another?
5. Does Dabo Swinney really have a shot at the Clemson job? If Clemson (5-5) can find a way to win Saturday at Virginia I think ol’ Dabo has a real shot at being the next head coach of the Tigers. Now that Will Muschamp is not in the mix, who does AD Terry Don Phillips turn to? No question Clemson is playing better on offense. If Clemson beats Virginia AND South Carolina (on Nov. 29) then you can book it. Dabo will be your guy.
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The BCS makes for strange bedfellows
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
One of the unintended consequences of the BCS is that, for good or bad, it creates a lot of strange bedfellows throughout the sport of college football. Fans who never cared about another school or gave it the time of day in September suddenly are desperately pulling for—or pulling against—that school when calendar turns to November.
There are three weeks left in the regular season and as usual when it comes to the BCS, most teams do not control their own destinies. In fact, only No. 1 Alabama (11-0), No. 2 Texas Tech (10-0), and No. 4 Florida (9-1) are in control of their fate.
The rest need help from someone. Here are just five examples:
1. Texas is pulling for Oklahoma: If No. 5 Oklahoma beats No. 2 Texas Tech Saturday night in Norman, it opens the door for No. 3 Texas to not only play for the Big 12 national championship but the BCS national championship as well. An Oklahoma win would likely create a three-way tie in the Big 12 South among the three schools which could all be 11-1. The team with highest BCS ranking may become the tiebreaker that determines who goes to the Big 12 championship game, where a win would put that team in the national championship game.
Now it’s possible that with a win over Texas Tech, Oklahoma could jump over Texas in the BCS Standings. But that’s a chance the Longhorns have to accept because if Texas Tech wins out they have no shot to get to the big game. In fact, if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, Texas will be pulling even harder for Oklahoma in its final game at Oklahoma State. Because if the Sooners, who lost to Texas 45-35, beat Texas Tech but then lose to the Cowboys there will be a two-way tie in the Big 12 South. Texas Tech would win the tiebreaker because of their 39-33 win over the Longhorns on Nov. 1.
2. Southern Cal, Ohio State are both pulling for Arizona and Oregon: Arizona (6-4) hosts Oregon State on Saturday. The Beavers are 6-1 in the Pac-10 and are the only team this season to beat No. 6 Southern Cal (9-1). If Oregon State wins its last two games against Arizona and Oregon, then the Beavers go to the Rose Bowl and Southern Cal gets an at-large bid to a BCS game. Southern Cal is pulling for Arizona because it wants to go to the Rose Bowl if it can’t get in the BCS championship game. Ohio State (9-2) is pulling for Arizona because if Oregon State goes to the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes will probably miss out on a BCS at-large bid and play Georgia in the Capital One Bowl. If Arizona doesn’t beat Oregon State on Saturday, then USC and Ohio State will pull for Oregon (8-3) to get the job done on Nov. 29. But Oregon State will play that game at home.
3. Boise State is pulling for BYU: Boise State (10-0) is ranked No. 9 in the BCS Standings. Normally that would make the Broncos a lock for a BCS at-large bid. But the Broncos are going to get left out of the BCS if No. 7 Utah (11-0) wins at home against BYU (10-1) on Saturday. Only one team from the non-BCS conferences can receive an at-large bid, regardless of their ranking. If Utah goes to the BCS, then a 12-0 Boise State could be playing on its blue home field in the Humanitarian Bowl.
4. Southern Cal is pulling for Florida State, Missouri: Sitting at No. 6 in the BCS Standings, it appears that the only way for Southern Cal (9-1) to get to the BCS championship game is for the SEC champion or the Big 12 champion not to be there. Assuming No. 1 Alabama beats Auburn, the only way that the SEC champ won’t be there is if No. 4 Florida loses at Florida State on Nov. 29 and then beats Alabama on Dec. 6 in Atlanta. With three Big 12 teams in the top five, the only way that conference champion is not in the big game is if Missouri (9-2) upsets Texas, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma in the league’s championship game.
5. BCS critics are pulling for the ultimate Doomsday Scenario: I have to give credit for this one to my good friend, Mark Blaudschun of the Boston Globe. Those who dislike the BCS want to see the worst possible outcome in hopes that it would prompt change. Well here, given the current standings, is the worst possible outcome:
Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, 49-47 in one of the greatest games in history.
Florida loses at Florida State on Nov. 29.
On championship Saturday the BCS Standings are 1) Alabama, 2) Texas, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Texas Tech, 5) Southern Cal, 6) Florida
Florida beats No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game.
No. 2 Texas (11-1) loses to Missouri in the Big 12 championship game.
Texas Tech (11-1) and Oklahoma (11-1), two teams that didn’t even win their division, finish 1-2 and advance to the BCS championship game. The human polls try to avoid a rematch and vote Southern Cal (11-1) No. 2 but the computers drop the Trojans into the No. 3 spot in the final rankings because of a weak schedule.
Missouri (11-2) is the Big 12 champion but, under BCS rules, only two teams from any one conference can play in a BCS game. Texas Tech and Oklahoma are already in the BCS title game. What does the BCS do? There is nothing in the bylaws to account for this scenario. Do they invoke an emergency change? Will one of the Big 12 teams get left out? Does President elect Obama invoke an eight-team playoff by executive order? The next three weeks could really be fun.
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Sorry, Mr. President. There will not be an eight-team playoff
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So President elect Barack Obama says he wants to “throw his weight around” for the purpose of getting an eight-team playoff to determine Division I-A football’s national championship. All I can say is: Good luck, Mr. President.
That’s because the President elect is getting ready to find out something many of us in the college football business have known for a long time: Finding solutions to a bad economy, health care, and war around the world will be a snap compared to getting the college football powers that be to move toward a playoff.
Let’s set aside the issue of whether or not this should be a concern for the future president of the United States. If the President elect thinks Congress is a tough bunch to deal with, wait until he comes head to head with the BCS commissioners.
Fans have long been clamoring for some kind of playoff to replace the current BCS system. But here is the reality:
The BCS commissioners met last April in South Florida and at that time SEC commissioner Mike Slive proposed a new “Plus-One” format. It was essentially a four-team playoff where the teams would be seeded 1-4. No. 1 would play No. 4 and No. 2 would play No. 3 in two designated bowls on or about Jan. 1. The two winners would advance to the BCS national championship about a week later. Slive and ACC commissioner John Swofford supported the idea. The other commissioners did not.
The current BCS contract with Fox Sports has two more years to run. The BCS is in the final stages of signing a deal with ESPN to broadcast the games through the 2013 regular season. That means the current format will stay in place for the next six years and the next serious discussion on changing it won’t take place until four years from now.
Here is what I believe will happen. ESPN is going to pay a pretty penny, about $125 million a year, to get the BCS back from FOX for 2010-2013. At the end of that contract everybody involved in the process, including the Rose Bowl, will be looking for a new deal. That’s when change could come. Several networks will be bidding for the rights and will throw an astronomical amount of money on the table in order to get a format change.
Understand that Slive put the Plus-One model on the table last April pretty much knowing that it would be shot down. The idea was to get the idea into the public domain so that we can talk about it. Slive was just setting the table for the big negotiations which will take place four years from now. ESPN has the clout to get the format changed. But the commissioners are going to make sure they pay for it with the biggest contract in the history of college sports.
Going from what we have now to an eight-team playoff would be a radical change with all kinds of unintended consequences. Would the fans like it? I’m sure they would. But here is another reality: While the fans are a very important component of college football, they are not the only component.
The powers that be are not going to do anything that would hurt the regular season. CBS and ESPN, for example, will invest $3 billion into SEC football over the next 15 years. They are not going to do anything to hurt that investment.
College football has the healthiest regular season of any sport except the NFL. Attendance is at an all time high. Television ratings are off the charts. Schools have invested billions in stadium and facility improvements. They are not going to put that at risk.
I came out of the April BCS meetings believing that a Plus-One model was possible in 2014. I still do. But an eight-team playoff? Sorry, Mr. President. Even if you serve two terms, it won’t happen under your watch.
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Florida is definitely the best team in the country
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. Florida is definitely the best team in the country: With all due respect to No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Texas Tech, nobody in America is playing better right now than the Florida Gators. We’re talking about a team that has won six straight SEC games by an average of almost 40 points. No team until now has ever won six straight SEC games by 28 points or more. Everyone knew the Florida offense would be good. And with head coach Urban Meyer in charge of the special teams, we knew they would be good as well. But now the defense is starting to really play well and giving the ball to that great offense on a short field. Can Alabama beat Florida in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6? Sure they can. Alabama, with their great play up front, is exactly the kind of team that can beat the Gators. But if Florida keeps playing at this level, nobody is going to beat them.
2. Randy Shannon has Miami on the right track: There were a lot of questions raised when Randy Shannon, a lifelong Miami player and assistant coach, was made head coach in 2007. Those questions certainly lingered when the Hurricanes went 5-7 and lost their last four games in 2007, including an embarrassing 48-0 loss to Virginia in the last game ever played in the Orange Bowl Stadium. Shannon simply asked for patience. He was improving the talent base through recruiting that that young talent would eventually get better. Now it has. Since close losses to North Carolina (28-24) and Florida State (41-39), the Hurricanes (7-3) will roll into Bobby Dodd Stadium Thursday night on a five-game winning streak and in control of their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. Last Thursday’s tough 16-14 win over Virginia Tech was a game that Miami would not have won a year ago.
3. This is the toughest SEC championship game ticket ever: During the weekend in Gainesville, Fla., I took an informal survey of people I knew would be getting calls for tickets for the SEC championship game. They all said the same thing. This will be the toughest ticket since the event started in 1992. Never has there been a conference championship game where the winner was guaranteed a spot in the BCS title game. If Alabama beats Auburn and Florida wins its last two against The Citadel and Florida State that is exactly what will happen. Except for the Super Bowl and the opening ceremonies to the 1996 Olympics, this could be the toughest ticket in the history of Atlanta sports.
4. Unless Georgia has an attitude adjustment, it will lose to Georgia Tech: Georgia’s football team looked tired, bored, or both against Auburn. Good thing that Matthew Stafford and A.J. Green were there to bail the Bulldogs out again. I know this. Georgia Tech is going to be really excited about playing the game when the Yellow Jackets arrive in Athens on Nov. 29. New coach Paul Johnson wants to send a signal that he intends to make this a rivalry again. Georgia Tech’s players come into this game feeling they have enough weapons to win. If Georgia tries to ho-hum their way through that game, thinking their talent will eventually carry the day, the Bulldogs are going to get beat.
5. “Blackout” games are probably gone for good: The “blackout” idea has surely run its course. Georgia went to the well one too many times with the black jerseys and got kicked at home by Alabama. Florida State trotted out the all-back uniforms Saturday night in Tallahassee and just got dominated by Boston College 27-17. The Seminoles tried it two years ago, also against Boston College, and got beat in that game, too. One other thing: Florida State looked listless in that game to me. I wonder if the suspensions of those receivers on the eve of the contest took some of the fight out of that team. If so, that was a shame because it might cost the Seminoles a shot at the ACC championship.
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Georgia takes care of business at Auburn
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After a few weeks of getting beat up pretty good, your humble scribe bounced back with an 8-2 record last week. I said that Penn State- Iowa would be close but I didn’t have the guts to pick the Hawkeyes. If you saw a Cincinnati win over West Virginia coming, then more power to you.
That gives us an overall record of 70-40 for the season. It’s hard to believe how fast those 11 weeks have flown by.
This week looks like the calm before next week’s storm of big games. That’s when surprises usually happen. Let’s see if there are any surprises in this week’s edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast:
1. Georgia (8-2) at Auburn (5-5): On paper it looks like Georgia might be in trouble at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Bulldogs lost another offensive lineman this week. The defense is not playing well and giving up a ton of points. Fans are upset because Georgia didn’t live up to the preseason expectations. After barely escaping Kentucky with a win, this could be a trap game for Georgia.
Nope.
As long as Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno and A.J. Green can make it off the bus healthy, Georgia should be fine. Whatever is ailing Georgia’s defense will be cured when it meets Auburn’s offense. Georgia 24, Auburn 7.
2. South Carolina (7-3) at Florida (8-1): The Gators are the hottest team in the country right now and appear to have a clearly defined path to the BCS championship game. What would knock the Gator Express into the ditch would be an upset loss to the Head Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier. Two years ago Florida had to block a field goal on the last play of the game to beat South Carolina and keep its national championship hopes alive. If Spurrier can come up with some kind of offense to hold on to the ball, this one could be close. Gators still win. Florida 28, South Carolina 21.
3. Miss. State (3-6) at Alabama (10-0): Like Florida, No. 1 Alabama has already clinched a spot in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6. Mississippi State has been struggling all season but Sylvester Croom always has something special for his alma mater. Mississippi State has won two straight games against Alabama. My sense is that the Crimson Tide defense will be hitting on all cylinders now that NT Terrence Cody is at full speed again. Alabama 27, Miss. State 14.
4. Vanderbilt (5-4) at Kentucky (6-4): Vanderbilt will try yet again to become eligible for its first bowl since 1982. Kentucky lost a heartbreaker to Georgia but in the process found its quarterback of the future in Randall Cobb. Cobb ran for 82 yards and three touchdowns against the Bulldogs. He gives Kentucky a much- needed running dimension on offense. That will be enough to beat the Commodores at home. Kentucky 24, Vanderbilt 17.
5. Boston College (6-3) at Florida State (7-2): The top two defenses in the ACC square off in what is bound to be a low scoring game. Boston College picked up a shutout last week against Notre Dame (17-0). Florida State rallied from a 10-0 deficit to take care of Clemson 41-27. The difference in this game is that Florida State’s defense will be able to force BC QB Chris Crane into turnovers. The Seminoles also have a running threat in quarterback Christian Ponder. Florida State 21, Boston College 13.
6. Duke (4-5) at Clemson (4-5): Dabo Swinney looked like he might be coaching his way into a job when Clemson took a 10-0 lead against Florida State last week. Now Swinney needs to take a step towards getting the Tigers bowl eligible. Clemson gets a slight edge because it is playing at home but a word of warning for the Tigers: This ain’t your old Duke. If you come out flat against David Cutcliffe’s team, you’ll get beat. Clemson 17, Duke 14.
7. North Carolina (7-2) at Maryland (6-3): Miami’s 16-14 win over Virginia Tech Thursday night puts North Carolina in control of its own destiny in the ACC Coastal. The Virginia Tech defense gave Maryland quarterback Chris Turner a hard time last week. North Carolina’s defense is better as it leads the nation in interceptions with 18. This will be close because Maryland is tough at home (4-0). North Carolina 28, Maryland 24.
8. Wake Forest (6-3) at N.C. State (3-5): If Maryland loses again, then Wake Forest (4-2 ACC) controls its own destiny in the ACC Atlantic. The Deacons were impressive last week with a solid 28-17 win over Virginia. The running game is finally working again and that should be enough to beat the Wolfpack in Raleigh. Wake Forest 23, N.C. State 17.
9. Ohio State (8-2) at Illinois (5-5): A year ago Illinois handed Ohio State it’s only loss in the regular season by beating the Buckeyes in Columbus. Despite the Illinois record, this is a dangerous game for Ohio State, which can still go to the Rose Bowl if it wins out and Michigan State beats Penn State next week. Illinois quarterback Juice Williams puts a scare into the Buckeyes but Jim Tressel’s team still finds a way to win. Ohio State 21, Illinois 17.
10. Texas (9-1) at Kansas (6-4): Despite its one-point loss to No. 2 Texas Tech on Nov. 1, Texas can still reach the Big 12 championship game if it beats Kansas and Texas A&M while Texas Tech loses next week at Oklahoma. This looks a little like a trap game because the Jayhawks can throw it pretty well with quarterback Todd Reesing. But Kansas gave up 45 last week to Nebraska. Colt McCoy and the Longhorns will score at least 50. Texas 52, Kansas 28.
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Can the HBC keep South Carolina close?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the weekend:
1. Can the Head Ball Coach keep South Carolina close? Two years ago South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier returned to Florida for the first time and almost broke the Gators’ hearts. His offense rolled up over 400 yards and Florida needed to block a South Carolina field goal attempt on the last play of the game to win 17-16. It almost cost Florida the 2006 national championship. Florida is again knocking on the door of a national title as Spurrier arrives on Saturday at The Swamp. He’s got a great defense. But Florida has scored 243 points in its last five games. Can his offense do enough to keep this one close?
2. Does Auburn have one good game in them? On paper there is no way that Auburn should even be close to Georgia on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Yes, the Georgia defense is struggling but the Auburn offense really isn’t good enough to take advantage of that in a big way. But this game has a strange feel to it. I have seen some bizarre things happen in this rivalry over the years. You have to figure that sooner or later Auburn’s offense will have one decent game where the Tigers finally put it all together. Could that game be on Saturday?
3. Will Alabama come out flat against Mississippi State? Every week Alabama coach Nick Saban warns about complacency and making the effort to improve over what you were the week before. Alabama had a very tough overtime win (27-21) at LSU last Saturday. Fans are already talking about the SEC championship game and perhaps the BCS title game. Auburn comes up in a couple of weeks. It would only be natural for the Crimson Tide to look past the Bulldogs (3-6). Mississippi State has won two straight against Bama. Sylvester Croom, an Alabama grad, will have his guys ready.
4. Can Virginia Tech break Miami’s hold on Thursday nights? Virginia Tech goes to Miami tonight for a huge game in the ACC Coastal as both teams are 3-2 in the division. Miami is 12-1 in Thursday night games and 8-0 when it plays on Thursday nights at home. It is also the last home game for the Hurricane seniors. Virginia Tech looked pretty good in bouncing Maryland 23-13 last Thursday. This has a chance to be a pretty good one.
5. Can Vanderbilt FINALLY become bowl eligible? For the fifth time this season Vanderbilt (5-4) will try to win game No. 6 and become eligible for its first bowl since 1982. Here is a fun stat if you don’t pull for Vanderbilt: Since 1982 the Commodores are 0-17 in games where a win could have made them bowl eligible. In that stretch of four losses this season Vanderbilt has lost close games to Mississippi State (17-14), Georgia (24-14), and Duke (10-7). I know the SEC is pulling for the ‘Dores. If Vanderbilt doesn’t became bowl eligible, the SEC may come up two teams short of filling its nine bowl slots.
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Tebow deserves strong look for Heisman Trophy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Nobody asked me but….
1. Tim Tebow deserves a strong look for the Heisman: Florida quarterback Tim Tebow won the Heisman Trophy last season with the best individual performance I have seen by a football player since Herschel Walker or Bo Jackson. The numbers were staggering. But the fact is Tebow is playing the best football of his career right now.
When Florida lost to Ole Miss (31-30) Tebow pledged that no one would play harder that he would for the rest of the season. He’s made good on the promise. Since that game Tebow has completed 64 of 92 passes (69.5 percent) for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. Florida has turned into a scoring machine with 243 points in five games because Tebow has managed the offense brilliantly. The numbers that are being put up by the Big 12 quarterbacks are staggering. But let’s put them into context of the caliber of defense being played in that league. The highest ranked defense in the Big 12 is Oklahoma at 51. There are seven SEC defenses ranked ahead of Oklahoma and Florida has faced five of them. And by the way, Florida’s next three Division I-A games will come against defenses that are ranked No. 3 (South Carolina), No. 5 (Florida State), and No. 4 (Alabama). If Tebow plays at this same level in those three games, he deserves more than just token consideration.
2. Auburn needs to make a decision before the Iron Bowl: Athletics director Jay Jacobs and president Jay Gouge need to have a meeting of the minds after Saturday’s game with Georgia. If Tommy Tuberville is not going to be your coach in the future, then you need to tell him before the Iron Bowl with Alabama on Nov. 29. If not the entire next two weeks will be dominated by media speculation about Tuberville’s future and the recruiting class that he and his staff have put together could be in trouble. After 10 years, Tuberville is either good enough to be your coach or he isn’t. It shouldn’t come down to one game. It’s not fair to him and his staff and it’s not fair to the players. There is enough drama in that game without Tuberville’s future hanging in the balance.
3. Phillip Fulmer would be a good fit at Clemson: Fulmer’s friends are telling him that he should take a year off to recharge his batteries. But when I talked to Fulmer last week he told me it is hard to imagine not coaching somewhere for the first time in 40 years. Fulmer has heard that Clemson might be interested. It’s just my opinion but Clemson could use a coach like Fulmer to instill some toughness into that group of players. Fulmer can still recruit. He just needs to hire a great offensive coordinator and turn it over to him.
4. Tommy Tuberville would also be a good fit at Clemson: Contrary to what was posted on some chat boards last week, I did not say that Tuberville was a done deal at Clemson. But it is an intriguing thought. What would be interesting is if Auburn tells Tuberville he can stay but he has to make a whole bunch of staff changes. It’s a pretty good guess to say that Tuberville would let his new offensive coordinator at Auburn bring in some of his own guys. That was one of the mistakes he made with the Tony Franklin hire. But Tuberville’s not going to gut a staff that has been loyal to him for 14 years. If the powers that be press him, Tuberville can dig in his heels and take the $6 million buyout and his agent, the talented Jimmy Sexton, can find another place for him to land. Understand that Tuberville’s buyout is not like Fulmer’s, which will be paid out over 48 months. Tuberville gets the first $3 million within 30 days after he is fired. The next $3 million has to be paid out within 365 days. That’s a lot of money to go out the door in a year.
5. Mike Leach is not a good fit at Tennessee: I like Mike Leach. I like to watch his Texas Tech teams play. I was very impressed with the way the Red Raiders dominated a very good team from Oklahoma State. I love his irreverent style. College football desperately needs guys like Mike Leach to give it some flavor. Having said all that, I just don’t see Leach as the next head coach at Tennessee. Oh, the football part of the equation would be fine. His quarterbacks throw for about 400 yards a game and he’s gotten to the point now where he has a solid running game and a pretty decent defense. Leach has a law degree from Pepperdine. He is known to take his post-game media sessions off on tangents that few can follow. In short, we in the media would love the guy. After 17 years of having an offensive lineman as their head coach, I know Tennessee fans want something new and exciting. Leach would certainly be that. It would certainly be entertaining. But it should be noted that before this season Leach was 65-37 in eight seasons at Texas Tech without a division title. Under Leach, Tennessee would play entertaining football. But would it play championship football?
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Bama-Florida winner to face Texas in BCS title game
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
When No. 3 Penn State lost to Iowa on Saturday, it basically set up a mini-playoff for the BCS championship game between the SEC and the Big 12. (USC fans, I haven’t forgotten you. The No. 6 Trojans can still get there, as I have mentioned below. But the odds are against you.) I’ve taken a little poetic license here but, based on what we know right now, here are my first projected BCS matchups. Feel free to disagree and provide your own.
1. BCS Championship: Alabama-Florida winner vs. Texas: Why Texas? That’s because No. 2 Texas Tech loses next week at Oklahoma (My friend Spencer Tillman, an Oklahoma grad, disagrees but I can’t see the Red Raiders winning in Norman, where Bob Stoops is 59-2 in 10 seasons.) Texas, Florida, and Oklahoma move up a notch in the BCS Standings. On championship Saturday the top five in the BCS are: 1) Alabama, 2) Texas, 3) Florida, 4) Oklahoma, 5) Texas Tech, 6) Southern Cal and 7) Utah . There will be a three-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South and Texas goes to the championship game because it has the highest BCS ranking. Texas beats Missouri for the second time this season and plays the SEC champ for all the marbles. Can No. 6 Southern Cal get there? Only if Florida loses to South Carolina or Florida State before the SEC championship game and then knocks off Alabama in Atlanta. That would open the door for the Trojans because the voters would not want a Texas-Oklahoma or a Texas-Texas Tech rematch.
2. Rose Bowl: Oregon State vs. Penn State: If it happens, this will be the mother of all nightmares for the boys from Pasadena. Oregon State opened the season 0-2 with a Pac-10 loss to Stanford (36-28) and a 45-14 thumping at Penn State. But since then the Beavers have only lost once to No. 7 Utah (31-28). If Oregon State (6-3, 5-1 Pac-10) wins its final three games against California (6-3), Arizona (6-3), and Oregon (7-3) it will go to the Rose Bowl because it beat Southern Cal (27-21) back on Sept. 25. The Rose Bowl not only gets a rematch, but it gets a Penn State team that lost out on a shot at the national championship on a last-second field goal at Iowa. If Oregon State trips up and it’s USC-Penn State, the Rose Bowl will be thrilled.
3. Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Florida loser vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma finishes 11-1 with the only loss coming to Texas (45-35) on Oct. 11. If Alabama is No. 1 and wins the SEC championship, the Sugar Bowl will get the first pick in order to replace the SEC champion. It’s a great game either way: Alabama-Oklahoma is a traditional matchup with a great defense (Alabama) versus a great offense (Oklahoma). Florida-Oklahoma matches Sooner coach Bob Stoops with his former employer and creates a battle of two of the best offenses and quarterbacks (Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford) in college football.
4. Fiesta Bowl: Southern Cal vs. Utah: The Trojans will argue right up until Selection Sunday that they were the best one-loss team in the country. But ultimately the loss to Oregon State and a weak overall schedule will keep Southern Cal out of the BCS championship and out of the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl takes USC to replace the Big 12 champion (Texas) and matches the Trojans with undefeated Utah (12-0), which beats BYU in a hard-fought game on Nov. 22, to earn a bid as the Coalition (non-BCS) team.
5. Orange Bowl: North Carolina vs. West Virginia: Cincinnati (7-2) had a huge 26-23 win over West Virginia last Saturday but I just get the feeling that the Bearcats are going to trip up somewhere, either at Louisville Friday night or against Pittsburgh at home on Nov. 22. If that happens, then the winner of the Backyard Brawl between West Virginia and Pittsburgh (in Pittsburgh) on Nov. 28 wins the Big East. North Carolina will win the ACC Coastal and will beat Florida State or Wake Forest in the conference championship game. I could be wrong about Cincinnati. Coach Brian Kelly is going to get looks from a number of schools. This could be his springboard season.
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For UGA defense, it’s not coaching or schemes. It’s players.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. For UGA defense it’s not coaching or schemes. It’s players: By now everybody has psycho-analyzed what is wrong with Georgia’s defense, which has given up 125 points in its last three games. They blame everybody from the defensive coordinator (Willie Martinez) to the demeanor of the head coach, who some people say should be more of a screamer.
It’s all silly. Martinez didn’t suddenly forget how to coach this season. Mark Richt has won 80 games in less than eight seasons at Georgia by being exactly who he is. In the SEC it’s not about attitudes or schemes. It’s about players. The schemes that have worked in the past will work today with players who are talented enough to execute them correctly. The problem I see on the Georgia defense, and the one everybody knew about before the beginning of the season, was that Georgia did not have the All-SEC player coming off the edge to disrupt what the opposing offense was doing. And Georgia has really missed that kind of player when it has gone up against a mobile quarterback. This will be an issue in the final two regular season games against Auburn and Georgia Tech, who both have mobile quarterbacks.
The fact is that Georgia got beat by the No. 1 (Alabama) and No. 4 (Florida) teams in the nation. And Florida, I believe is the best team in the country right now.
Georgia has a chance to finish 11-2 for the second straight year and people are going around talking about firing coaches. Amazing.
2. As it should be, the BCS championship will be between the SEC and Big 12: It was sad to see Joe Paterno, looking every one of his 81 years, leaving the press box after Penn State had been upset by Iowa. But what that did was clear the decks for the BCS championship game that everyone wants to see between the SEC and the Big 12. All season we have argued about which conference is the best, the high-scoring Big 12 with all those great quarterbacks, or the SEC, a league that still plays defense. With the BCS top five now comprised of two teams from the SEC (Alabama, Florida) and three from the Big 12 (Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma), fans will get a mini-playoff in November and early December. It will take something fairly dramatic to keep the SEC-Big 12 matchup from happening. But it could happen. We’ll talk more about that later.
3. The Tennessee players really stepped up for their old coach: I hope you can pick up the sarcasm in that sentence. The Volunteers showed their anger and indignation at Phillip Fulmer’s press conference last week and spoke of the injustice of asking Fulmer to step down with football left to play on the schedule. But when it came time to play Saturday against a bad Wyoming team, the Volunteers did not live up to their name. Granted, everyone now has to admit that Tennessee just isn’t a very good team. But we’re talking Wyoming, who lost to BYU, Utah, and TCU by a combined score of 138-14. What the players did, unknowingly, was validate the decision of the administration. Fairburn’s Eric Berry has been a warrior on that team all season. He is a real football player. But I don’t know about the rest of those guys. The next coach at Tennessee, whoever he is, is going to have some work to do with this group of players. There may be a bunch of four-star talent up there, but I don’t see a whole lot of four-star hearts.
4. Steve Spurrier is doing his best coaching job at South Carolina: The Gamecocks started 0-2 in the SEC and looked like a team that was ready to collapse and have a really bad season. But Spurrier knew he had a good defense and that he had to manufacture enough offense to give his team a chance to win every week. Since that start South Carolina has won four of its last five conference games and the loss was 24-17 to LSU. The other two SEC losses were to Vanderbilt (24-17) and Georgia (14-7). The Gamecocks are 7-3 heading to No. 4 Florida this week and with that defense, which is still No. 3 in the country (256.50 ypg), they have a puncher’s chance. Remember that two years ago when Florida won the national championship, the Gators had to block a field goal on the last play of the game to beat Spurrier 17-16.
5. Tech’s game with Miami will be huge: You knew it was going to be hard for Georgia Tech to go up to Chapel Hill and win, especially after offensive tackle Andrew Gardner got hurt. Tech ran for 326 yards against a pretty good defense but just could not overcome the mistakes, which everyone knew would be a problem for this team. But consider this. When you look around at schools like Michigan, Tennessee, and Auburn that have fallen apart while trying to install a brand new offensive scheme, you realize what an incredible job Paul Johnson has done to have his first Georgia Tech team at 7-3 and still relevant in the ACC race in mid-November. A good exclamation point on Johnson’s first season would be a win over Miami a week from this Thursday. I’ll be anxious to see the fan turnout for that one.
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The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’ve often told people that if they are dumb enough to bet money on college football, they pretty much deserve what they get. The game is too unpredictable now. In most games, especially this time of year, winning and losing comes down to 2 or 3 plays in a game. Take my picks, for instance. Here is how what looked to be a 9-1 week quickly turned into 4-6. The ACC is the most unpredictable conference in football. I’ve got the scars to prove it. I went 0-4 in the ACC last week and all four of the games looked like they were going the other way until the final moments:
Florida State was going in for the winning touchdown inside the final minute when Georgia Tech safety Cooper Taylor knocked the ball loose from Marcus Sims in the end zone to give the Yellow Jackets a 31-28 victory.
Duke missed a 41-yard field goal in the final seconds of regulation and lost in OT to Wake Forest, 33-30.
Virginia was in control against Miami but the Hurricanes took advantage of two late turnovers to win 24-17 in overtime.
Playing at home, Boston College fought back from a 17-0 deficit to take a 21-17 lead with 8:43 left. But the Tigers rallied to beat the Eagles for the first time in 50 years, 27-17.
Those four games combined with the pick of Texas over Texas Tech, which scored with one second left to win, plus the oh-so-wrong pick of Georgia over Florida is how a potentially good weekend goes into the ditch.
That gives us a 62-38 record on the year with the hope that when it comes to picking games, your humble servant will have a November to remember. But don’t bet the ranch, or anything else, on it.
Here, my friends, is another Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Georgia Tech (7-2) at North Carolina (6-2): Georgia Tech suffered a huge loss in left tackle Andrew Gardner, which means the offensive line has to be reshuffled to go against a pretty athletic North Carolina defense. This will be a very good game but North Carolina, which finds ways to make teams throw (17 interceptions), will nip Georgia Tech at the end. North Carolina 17, Georgia Tech 14.
2. Georgia (7-2) at Kentucky (6-3): Getting Georgia up to play this game after last week’s beat down by the Gators is going to be a tough task for Mark Richt and his staff. If Kentucky were a little bit better on offense, I’d be tempted to pick the Wildcats in an upset because the UK defense is pretty good. Georgia’s skill level gets them through a very tough game. Georgia 20, Kentucky 14.
3. Alabama (9-0) at LSU (6-2): LSU can’t defend its national championship but the Tigers can damage Nick Saban’s chances of winning one with an upset win in Baton Rouge. Alabama’s plan is simple. Use the nation’s No. 2 rushing defense to slow down RB Charles Scott, believing that redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee is not good enough to win the game. This will be one of the most physical football games you’ll see this season. And when it comes to a street fight, I like the Crimson Tide. Alabama 21, LSU 17.
4. Florida (7-1) at Vanderbilt (5-3): Both of Florida’s national championship teams, 1996 and 2006, had to fight just to get out of Vanderbilt with a win. The Gators are coming off their best performance of the year against Florida and there is a tendency to let down. But with one loss, No. 5 Florida knows it has to keep winning big to stay in the BCS race. The Gators just have too much speed. Florida 35, Vanderbilt 10.
5. Arkansas (4-5) at South Carolina (6-3): Don’t look now but the Head Ball Coach at South Carolina is putting together a pretty good season after an 0-2 start in the SEC. If QB Stephen Garcia (ankle) was completely healthy, the Gamecocks would be more comfortable about this game. South Carolina wins because of the nation’s No. 3 defense (250.67 ypg). South Carolina 17, Arkansas 13.
6. Clemson (4-4) at Florida State (6-2): It’s Bowden Bowl X but one of the Bowdens, Tommy, has already taken Clemson’s money and gone to the beach. With Maryland’s loss to Virginia Tech last night, Florida State can win the ACC Atlantic by running the table against Clemson, Boston College, and Maryland plus one more loss by Wake Forest. Saturday will also be Bobby Bowden’s 79th birthday. Florida State 31, Clemson 17.
7. Virginia (5-4) at Wake Forest (5-3): This is an ACC elimination game. Wake Forest (3-2 ACC) has to keep winning to stay alive in the ACC Atlantic. Virginia (2-2) is in the same boat in the Coastal. Virginia is pretty scary with that big offensive line and running back Cedric Peerman. But Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe has been working on his running game for just such an occasion. This will be a very good football game. Wake Forest 17, Virginia 13.
8. Cincinnati (6-2) at West Virginia (6-2): Since a 1-2 start West Virginia has reeled off five straight wins and is all alone atop the Big East standings. Last week the Mountaineers eliminated Connecticut (35-13) and this week they get a chance to hand the Bearcats their second conference loss. As long as QB Pat White is vertical, go with the Mountaineers. West Virginia 31, Cincinnati 17.
9. Penn State (9-0) at Iowa (5-4): People keep wondering if Penn State is going to stumble somewhere along the way. This trip to Iowa City may not be easy because the Hawkeyes are on a three-game winning streak. Penn State has more speed and more athleticism and they have Joe Pa, who seems to be having a charmed season. That, and the return of QB Darryl Clark (concussion), should be enough for the Nittany Lions to win. Penn State 28, Iowa 13.
10. Oklahoma State (8-1) at Texas Tech (9-0): The No. 2 Red Raiders won the biggest game in their history last week against No. 1 Texas. They will have to play even better to beat the Cowboys Saturday night in Lubbock. Oklahoma State’s running game (273.56 ypg) is the fifth-best in the nation and the Cowboys will use it to keep the ball away from QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree. Oklahoma State also has a great passing combo in QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant (60 catches, 1,054 yards). Part of me wants to pick the upset but I can’t go against the Red Raiders in Lubbock. Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma State 27.
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Can Tech overcome the loss of Gardner?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the weekend:
1. Can Georgia Tech overcome the loss of Andrew Gardner?:Georgia found out this season that replacing a good left tackle is a hard thing to do. Once Trinton Sturdivant went down in the summer it started a game of musical chairs trying to get the entire line stabilized. Georgia Tech faces the same task, but now it’s November, in replacing the injured Andrew Gardner. Playing in Chapel Hill is difficult enough. Having to play the Tar Heels without Gardner is even tougher. You know that North Carolina’s defense (which allows 113.6 ypg rushing) is going to put an extra defender in place to slow down the run and force Tech to pass. North Carolina leads the nation with 17 interceptions on the season. It would be easier to get the running game going if Gardner were there. That is a tough, tough injury for the Jackets.
2. What will be Georgia’s frame of mind at Kentucky?: Part of me thinks the Bulldogs will be anxious to play and get the nightmare that was Jacksonville behind them. Another part of me wonders if they will have a whole lot of enthusiasm for the trip to Lexington. If Georgia comes out flat, the Dawgs could be in for quite a battle in the bluegrass. Kentucky has a pretty good defense (No. 26 nationally) and has an offense that is getting a little better with freshman quarterback Randall Cobb. With Auburn coming up next week, this is a dangerous game for Georgia.
3. Can Florida lay a big number on Vanderbilt?: History says Florida will win ugly Saturday at Vanderbilt. The Gators are coming off an emotional win over Georgia and it will be hard for them to perform at that level for two straight weeks. Florida’s 1996 national championship team had to fight for their lives to win at Nashville, 28-21. The 2006 national championship team beat Vandy 25-19 in Nashville. The 2002 Florida team, the only one to beat Georgia that year, escaped with a 21-17 win in Nashville. So I think it will be close. But a friend of mine says it won’t because the Gators, ranked No. 5 in the BCS, know they have to keep winning impressively. If Urban Meyer gets a chance to hang a big number on Vanderbilt, he will. It should be interesting.
4. How much extra security will Alabama take to Baton Rouge?: I’m hearing that the security detail will be beefed up for Nick Saban’s first trip back to LSU, where he won the national championship in 2003. But here’s the irony of the “warm” reception Saban will receive. I believe the hostile crowd will only serve to make the Crimson Tide even more focused than they usually are. Alabama is a different team, and better, team on the road because Saban demands that they focus on the task at hand. Just ask Arkansas (49-14), Georgia (41-30, 31-0 at halftime), and Tennessee (29-9).
5. What will the “Vol Walk” be like on Saturday?: Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer announced on Monday that he will be stepping down at the end of this season. So before Saturday’s game with Wyoming, Fulmer will lead his team on the pre-game “Vol Walk” for the next-to-last time. The last time will come on Nov. 29 against Kentucky. It’s bound to be an emotional scene. The Tennessee players are obviously angry with the school’s administration at the way this thing was handled. I wonder if their play will reflect that in the final three games?
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Big 12 or SEC: Who gets left out of the BCS?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I was on a conference call yesterday with Tim Brando and Spencer Tillman as we prepared for this Saturday’s College Football Today show on CBS. Just for fun, we started discussing worst case scenarios for the BCS. What COULD happen to bring about, as Brando loves to say, the greatest amount of “angst, anger and bitterness” against the BCS?
We discussed a number of scenarios, including the possibility that No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Texas Tech finish 13-0 while No. 3 Penn State and Joe Paterno go 12-0 and get left out of the BCS championship game. It would be the fifth time in his remarkable career that Paterno has gone undefeated (1968, 1969, 1973, 1994 were the others) and not won the national championship.
That result would not be popular in the Big Ten, to be sure. And it would not be popular among fans who would like to see Joe Pa get one last shot at a championship. But elsewhere I don’t think it causes that much of a ripple.
Yes, the human polls have Penn State No. 2 right now, but if Texas Tech goes 13-0 against a schedule that includes No. 4 Texas (No. 1 when they played the Longhorns), No. 6 Oklahoma, No. 9 Oklahoma State, you have to put the Red Raiders in ahead of Penn State, whose only wins over ranked teams would be against No. 11 Ohio State and No. 18 Michigan State. Texas Tech would have more wins (13 to 12) against a tougher schedule.
There would also be the Ohio State factor. The voters would remember that the Big Ten champ had been beaten soundly the past two years by the SEC champ. It may not be fair to punish Penn State for the sins of Ohio State. But it would be a factor in the final decision by the poll voters.
But this morning, after taking a long look at the BCS standings my ultimate Doomsday scenario, the one that will cause the most uproar, goes like this:
No. 2 Texas Tech loses at No. 6 Oklahoma on Nov. 22. Penn State moves to No. 2 (trust me, they will).
Everybody wins out and on championship Saturday, Dec. 6, the BCS Standings are:
1) Alabama (12-0)
2) Penn State (12-0)
3) Texas (11-1)
4) Florida (11-1). Florida might catch Texas for No. 3. It will be close.
5) Oklahoma (11-1)
6) Texas Tech (11-1)
7) Southern Cal (10-1)
If Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship game, it’s simple. Alabama’s in and Penn State, which had not played since Nov. 22, would join the Crimson Tide in South Florida for the BCS national championship on Jan. 8. All those one-loss teams would stake their claim to the No. 2 spot but the arguments would not last long.
But what if No. 4 Florida beats No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game and No. 3 Texas beats No. 14 Missouri for the Big 12 championship? Penn State moves to No. 1 (trust me, it will) and both Texas and Florida finish 12-1. Who’s No. 2? Who gets left out of the BCS championship game?
Texas will argue that its only loss was to the No. 6 team in the BCS (Texas Tech) on the road in a game that the Longhorns led with less than 90 seconds left.
Florida would argue that it just beat No. 1 and that its only loss was by one point to Ole Miss on Sept. 27 and that, since then, the Gators have been dominant.
Texas will argue that it beat No. 1 (Oklahoma) back on Oct. 11 and that Florida’s loss came at home, which is worse than losing at Lubbock.
Florida will argue that the SEC is a stronger league that has won the last two national championships.
And so it goes. The SEC and the Big 12 have been the best two conferences all season but in this scenario one of the champions gets left out in favor of an undefeated team from the Big Ten.
So if all this happens—and it’s not far-fetched—which team (Texas or Florida) should get in the big game? The floor is yours.
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Will Tennessee get the rock star coach it wants?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Given where the Tennessee football program is in relation to its biggest SEC rivals (Alabama, Florida, Georgia), an entirely logical case can be made for asking Phillip Fulmer to step aside after 16 years as head coach.
But those Tennessee fans who chose to be in a celebratory mood yesterday, when Fulmer fought back the tears at his press conference in Knoxville, are about to get hit with a sober reality: Tennessee, for all of its great tradition and vast resources, is probably not going to get the rock star head coach that so many people want.
I understand the emotion. Tennessee fans who felt the program was slipping, and it was, looked around the league and saw Nick Saban (Alabama), Urban Meyer (Florida), and Mark Richt (Georgia), three coaching stars who will have their programs in the Top 10 for more seasons than not in the future. Then they looked at their guy who is today what he has always been: A former offensive lineman who believed that that answer to just about every problem was to work a little harder tomorrow than you did today.
That value system was pretty effective, as Fulmer will leave Tennessee averaging just under 9.4 wins per season. But it wasn’t sexy. Fans want sexy. Sexy sells. Tubby Smith was pushed out the door at Kentucky averaging 26 wins per year because he didn’t have Rick Pitino’s charisma.
Now to be fair to Fulmer’s critics, Tennessee was not a well-coached team this season. The transition to new offensive coordinator Dave Clawson was just terrible on every level. And the facts are that with David Cutcliffe as his offensive coordinator, Fulmer’s teams were 85-19. Without Cutcliffe Fulmer’s Tennessee teams were 65-32. Again, after 16 years, the case could be made to bring in another head coach.
But understand that the search for a new coach is going to be very difficult. Athletics Director Mike Hamilton is under tremendous pressure to hit a home run with this hire. In today’s culture, winning the press conference has become almost as important as winning games. But the guys who would allow Hamilton to hit it out of the park are probably not going to come for a host of reasons.
One of the first names I heard early this season was North Carolina’s Butch Davis. Davis would be a perfect fit because he is a great recruiter, which Tennessee must have, and a very good coach, which Tennessee also must have. Fulmer took Tennessee’s program to another level starting in 1993 because he was a relentless recruiter. Davis rebuilt the Miami football program and left enough players behind to win one national championship and come within one an eyelash of another. But Davis is not going to leave the relative comfort of Chapel Hill, N.C., to come to Tennessee. Why?
I talked to one head coach yesterday who pointed out that, in his mind, Tennessee is one of the toughest jobs in all of college football. It’s because the expectation is that Tennessee will be on par with Alabama, Florida, and Georgia on a yearly basis without some of the built-in advantages that those programs have, especially in recruiting. When Tennessee had it going in the 1990s, Fulmer and his staff were able to dip down into Georgia and Alabama for great players. Now Richt and recruiting coordinator Rodney Garner, a former Tennessee assistant, have put up a wall around Georgia. Saban is doing the same thing at Alabama.
The new head coach at Tennessee has to accept the fact he will have to recruit nationally and work significantly harder in order to get the talent to compete with those three schools. Can it be done? Absolutely. Tennessee will spend whatever it takes to recruit. But it is hard.
The other names I see out there are younger coaches who would want to step up. Here is where it gets tricky and where, if Hamilton hires the wrong guy, he could be the next guy out the door.
Do you turn the keys to the Tennessee football franchise over to a Mike Leach (Texas Tech), whose offense is entertaining but plays in a league where the best defense (Texas Tech) is ranked No. 54 in the country?
Do you hire a young up and comer like Will Muschamp, 37, who looks like the next Bob Stoops or Mark Richt but has no head coaching experience?
Do you completely step outside your comfort zone and hire a Todd Graham (Tulsa) or Chris Peterson (Boise State) with no ties to the South?
Jon Gruden? Lane Kiffin? Are you kidding me?
Here’s the point. You can’t just plug anybody into a job like Tennessee, no matter how successful they might be elsewhere. There is a cultural component to this job that must be taken into account. Some Tennessee fans say they want to find the football version of Bruce Pearl. Pearl is a brilliant combination of basketball coach/promoter. But basketball and football in this part of the world are like Venus and Mars. What works on one planet does not work on the other.
That is why this is going to be such a tough hire. Let’s put it this way. Alabama, for all its great tradition, had to go through a painful process with some very public turn downs (Rich Rodriguez) before it convinced Nick Saban to come. Saban and his agent, Jimmy Sexton, had all the leverage and were able to extract one of the best contracts in college football history. Tennessee now finds itself in the same situation.
But is there a Nick Saban out there who is willing to come to Knoxville? That is the question Tennessee fans must face as they move forward.
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Replacing Fulmer won’t be easy for UT
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. Tennessee will find it tough to replace Fulmer: It will become official at a press conference this afternoon, but Phillip Fulmer is out after 16 full seasons at Tennessee. He will leave with an average record of 9-3 and five trips to the SEC championship game and a national championship in 1998.
I have told my Tennessee friends this and I will repeat it here. The search for a new Tennessee coach will not be an easy one. Tennessee will want to hit a home run with this hire but getting an established head coach to leave his current job to come to Knoxville will be a tough sell. We’ll write more on this Tuesday morning after more details are available. .
2. We could have the best SEC championship game ever: In the new BCS Standings Alabama (9-0) is No. 1 and Florida (7-1) is No. 5. Alabama could certainly run the table against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. Florida will be favored in its last four games at Vanderbilt, South Carolina, The Citadel, and at Florida State. If both teams win out we will have, at least on paper, the biggest SEC championship game ever. The SEC has had a No. 1 team in the game before (Tennessee in 1998) but the opponent back then was No. 23 Mississippi State. The best set of rankings came in 2003 when No. 3 LSU met No. 7 Georgia. If that happens, once again the BCS focus on Championship Saturday will be on the SEC title game. And for the third straight year and the eighth time since 1992, the winner could be headed to the national championship game. But having said all that I have to admit that….
3. Texas Tech is good enough to run the table: I didn’t think Texas Tech could beat Texas. The Red Raiders roll up a lot of points with QB Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, who has convinced me that he is the best receiver in college football. What I didn’t realize until I watched the second half of Saturday night’s game is that the Red Raiders play tough, physical football on defense. Because the offense is virtually unstoppable, Texas Tech has a chance to win every time they play because they finally play decent defense. Texas Tech will struggle with Oklahoma State on Saturday because so much was invested in the Texas game. The most likely stumbling place is at Oklahoma on Nov. 22. But after that we saw Saturday night, who’s to say that Texas Tech can’t win them all?
4. Georgia is good, but the Dawgs aren’t Florida/Alabama good: For a big-time game with so much on the line, Georgia’s 49-10 loss to Florida was a pretty disappointing effort for the Bulldogs. It could have been a competitive hangover from the trip the week before against LSU, but the fact is that Georgia got beat, and beat soundly, by a superior football team that was highly motivated. Georgia got a bunch of yards but made a ton of mistakes and wasn’t mentally tough enough to play through them. The Florida defense challenge Georgia to run the ball and the young offensive line again played like a young offensive line. The red zone problems defy description. Still, Georgia can finish 10-2 and go to a New Year’s Day bowl. After a lot of preseason hype about the SEC (and yes, I was a part of that), there are really only two elite teams (Florida, Alabama) this season. Georgia is not among them.
5. Florida may be the best team in college football: Remember when Florida lost to Ole Miss and Tebow gave his emotional post-game talk to the media saying that no one would play harder than him the rest of the season? Well, he’s backed it up. In the four games since Ole Miss, Tebow has completed 52 of 75 passes (69.3 percent) for eight touchdowns. Florida has scored 201 points in the last four games. With the way Tebow is playing right now, backed up by an improving defense, Florida just may be the best team in the country.
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