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Friday, November 28, 2008
Georgia Tech will shock Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Hope everybody had a great Thanksgiving and got their batteries charged up for the last two weeks of the regular season. After what happened at the end of 2007, I’m convinced that we still have at least one and maybe two shockers ahead of us. One of them might happen on Saturday.
Went 7-3 last week because I picked Vanderbilt over Tennessee, LSU over Ole Miss, and Maryland over Florida State. That gives us a record of 83-47 on the year. So let’s get on with the Holiday version of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Georgia Tech (8-3) at Georgia (9-2): On paper, Georgia should win this one. The Bulldogs are playing at home. There is more overall talent except on the defensive front, where Tech has an edge with Michael Johnson (In case you haven’t noticed, he’s a grown man). Georgia has a chance to win its 10th game and all but lock up a spot in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day if they can beat Georgia Tech for the eighth straight time. All logic says go with Georgia. But why do I get the feeling that Georgia Tech is more excited about playing this game than Georgia? The Bulldogs have just gotten by in its last two games against Kentucky and Auburn. And it seems like something went out of this team when it got its collective butts kicked against Florida on Nov. 1. Georgia Tech showed what is possible when the Yellow Jackets rolled up 472 yards rushing against Miami. It says here that Georgia Tech pulls off the upset and Paul Johnson puts some life back into the rivalry. Georgia Tech 28, Georgia 24.
2. Auburn (5-6) at Alabama (11-0): All the pressure is on Alabama to break its six-game losing streak and stay No. 1 until next week’s SEC championship game with Florida. If Auburn’s offense was just okay, it would be tempting to pick the Tigers because coach Tommy Tuberville has always been pretty good in these kinds of games. But Alabama is so good on the offensive and defensive lines that they have the ability to wear teams down. That is what will happen in Saturday’s Iron Bowl and Alabama will march to 12-0 and a date next week in Atlanta. Alabama 24, Auburn 14.
3. Florida (10-1) at Florida State (8-3): Getting out of Tallahassee with a win has never been easy for the Gators. And when they are playing the following week for the SEC championship, it’s been virtually impossible. Five times the Gators have gone to Tallahassee the week before the SEC championship game. Florida is 1-3-1 in those games. Florida State impressed me with its 37-3 road win at Maryland last week. But the Seminoles just don’t have enough weapons to keep pace with the speedy Gators. Florida 31, Florida State 21.
4. Oklahoma (10-2) at Oklahoma State (9-2): Earlier this week Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said he was done politicking for the BCS voters. That’s because if the Sooners lose to the Cowboys Saturday night, argument will be moot. And the Cowboys know how to play this game tough in Stillwater. In 2006 Oklahoma hung on 27-21. In 2004 the Cowboys missed a tying field goal at the buzzer and lost 38-35. In 2002 Oklahoma State knocked off No. 3 Oklahoma 38-28. With quarterback Zac Robinson, wide receiver Dez Byrant and running back Kendall Hunter (130.36 ypg), the Cowboys are one of the most balanced teams in the country. Oklahoma invested a lot of energy into last week’s win over Texas Tech. Is there an upset here? I was tempted to say yes until I discovered that Oklahoma State had the No. 105 pass defense in the country (259.27 ypg). Oklahoma 31, Oklahoma State 24.
5. Oregon (8-3) at Oregon State (8-3): A lot of people are going to be watching the annual Civil War. A bunch of them will be pulling for Oregon. Take the Rose Bowl, please. If Oregon State wins the Beavers will go to their first Rose Bowl since 1965. Normally that would be a great story line but waiting in Pasadena will be Penn State, which beat the Beavers 45-14 back in September. Try to sell that game. If Oregon State loses, then Southern Cal will go to the Rose Bowl if it can beat UCLA next week. Mike Riley has done a very good job with Oregon State after starting 0-2. The Beavers may be without running back Quizz Rodgers, the Pac-10 leader in rushing (113.9 ypg). Still, I like Oregon State. Oregon State 24, Oregon 20.
6. Virginia (5-6) at Virginia Tech (7-4): Virginia Tech started its season with a 27-22 loss to East Carolina and there were moments this season when the Hokies appeared to be in real trouble. But Frank Beamer showed why he is a future Hall of Fame coach. If Virginia Tech beats Virginia in Blacksburg, the Hokies will go to the ACC championship game for the third time in four years. Georgia Tech is pulling for Virginia because a win by the Cavaliers, who have lost eight of nine to Virginia Tech, sends the Yellow Jackets to Tampa. The Hokies are not going to lose at home with this much on the line. Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 14.
7. South Carolina (7-4) at Clemson (6-5): There is a lot riding on this game for Clemson and interim coach Dabo Swinney. A win makes Clemson bowl eligible, which would be a pretty big deal after all the trouble this program has endured this season. Tiger athletics director Terry Don Phillips likes Swinney and would like to be able to make a strong case to hire him. I just like the way that QB Cullen Harper (Alpharetta) and running back James Davis (Atlanta) are starting to play now that they know the end of their college careers are near. It the last game in Death Valley for all the Clemson seniors and I think they will make it one to remember. Clemson 14, South Carolina 13.
8. Kentucky (6-5) at Tennessee (4-7): It’s going to be a very emotional day in Knoxville. It will be “Phillip Fulmer Day” as Fulmer coaches his final game for the Vols. Tennessee won’t go to a bowl but the seniors do have a chance to end their careers with a win and that should be motivation enough. Defensive coordinator John Chavis, who has done yeoman’s work this season, will have his guys finely tuned for this game. Kentucky will find it very difficult to score and Fulmer closes 17 years as the head Volunteer on a positive note. Tennessee 21, Kentucky 10.
9. Maryland (7-4) at Boston College (8-3): A week ago Maryland controlled its destiny in the ACC Atlantic. After a 37-3 loss to Florida State, the Terps can now only play the role of spoiler. If Boston College wins, the Eagles go to the ACC championship game. If Maryland wins, Florida State makes the trip to Tampa. Maryland has a puncher’s chance because Boston College will be without quarterback Chris Crane (shoulder). Freshman Dominique Davis is talented but is prone to turnovers. I think BC plays it close to the vest because of the nation’s No. 5 defense (269.64 ypg). The Eagles win and go to the ACC championship game for the second straight year. Boston College 17, Maryland 10.
10. Syracuse (3-8) at Cincinnati (9-2): Cincinnati has been a member of the Big East for only four seasons, but the Bearcats can go to their first BCS bowl (probably Orange) in history with a win today over the Orange. Syracuse upset Notre Dame (if you can call any win over Notre Dame an upset) last week 24-23 and would like to send Greg Robinson, their lame-duck coach, out with another win. The Bearcats win because they are at home and because they have a hot quarterback. Tony Pike completed 26 of 32 passes for 309 yards in last week’s 28-21 win over Pittsburgh. He will have a very good day against the nation’s 102nd defense (414.73 ypg). Cincinnati 31, Syracuse 10.
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