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Tuesday, November 25, 2008
SEC Champ, Oklahoma to play for BCS title
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Knowing full well that this whole thing can blow up in the next two weeks, here are my projections on for the BCS bowls. Understand that all of this can fall apart if Alabama loses to Auburn or Florida loses at Florida State on Saturday. I have to make some other assumptions, like Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State and Oregon State beating Oregon to advance to the Rose Bowl. If you see a flaw in the logic, let me know about it:
1. BCS championship: Alabama-Florida winner vs. Oklahoma: Even though Texas (10-1) and Oklahoma (10-1) are 2-3 in the BCS Standings, if Oklahoma beats No. 12 Oklahoma State (9-2) on Saturday, I believe they will jump over Texas in Sunday’s new BCS Standings. That’s because Texas is playing unranked Texas A&M (4-7). Oklahoma is already No. 2 in the computers and Texas is No. 4. Yeah, Texas beat Oklahoma (45-35) on a neutral field. Is it fair? Probably not. But that is what I think will happen.
Oklahoma will play No. 13 Missouri in the Big 12 championship game where a win puts the Sooners in South Florida for the BCS title. No. 1 Alabama (11-0) will obviously go if it beats Florida. It won’t matter if the Gators are No. 4 on championship Saturday. If they beat No. 1 Alabama they will jump over an idle Texas team and into the big game.
2. Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Oregon State: If you’re thinking these two teams have already played, you’re right. The Nittany Lions destroyed the Beavers 45-14 on Sept. 6 in Happy Valley. But if Oregon State (8-3) wins at home against Oregon (8-3) on Saturday, the Beavers finish in a tie for first place in the Pac-10 with No. 5 Southern Cal (9-1). Oregon State will get the trip to the Rose Bowl because it beat Southern Cal head to head (27-21) way back on Sept. 27. The only thing that will sell this game is the possibility that it could be Joe Paterno’s last as the Penn State coach.
3. Fiesta: Texas vs. Southern Cal: Because the Fiesta lost its designated host in the Big 12 champion (Oklahoma), it will get to replace the Sooners with Texas, which will be out to prove something after getting left out of the big game. The Fiesta will have to choose between No. 5 Southern Cal and No. 7 Utah (12-0) as the opponent. Assuming Southern Cal will beat Notre Dame and UCLA to finish 11-1 (and that’s a pretty easy assumption), the Fiesta gets the best matchup outside of the BCS championship game.
4. Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Florida loser vs. Utah: Because the Sugar Bowl loses its champion (SEC), it will pick the loser of the SEC championship game as a replacement team. The Fiesta will pick ahead of the Sugar so Southern Cal will be gone. The Sugar takes undefeated Utah. If Florida is on the other side with former Utes coach Urban Meyer, you have an instant story line.
5. Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati: This could change if Virginia beats Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on Saturday because then Georgia Tech (8-3) would go to the ACC championship game. But I don’t think that will happen and Virginia Tech (7-4) will beat Boston College in the ACC championship game to earn the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. Cincinnati (9-2) will beat Syracuse on Saturday to win the Big East and earn the first New Year’s Day bowl trip in its history.
BONUS PICKS:
Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs. Ohio State: If both Alabama and Florida get a spot in a BCS bowl, the Bulldogs are pretty much a lock to go to Orlando. Ohio State is pulling hard for Oregon on Saturday because if the Ducks beat the Beavers, then Southern Cal goes to the Rose Bowl. Then No. 10 Ohio State would get a BCS at-large bid either to the Fiesta or Sugar.
Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Nebraska: If the Yellow Jackets (8-3) beat Georgia on Saturday they could be in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. If Tech loses I’m projecting them into the Gator against Nebraska (7-4), assuming the Cornhuskers beat Colorado and finish 8-4. If Notre Dame (6-5) had not lost to Syracuse last Saturday, the Gator Bowl was prepared to take the Fighting Irish at 7-5. We are assuming, of course, that Note Dame will lose and lose big to Southern Cal on Saturday. If West Virginia (7-3) wins its last two games with Pittsburgh and South Florida to finish 9-3, the Gator could take the Mountaineers.
