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Friday, November 7, 2008
The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’ve often told people that if they are dumb enough to bet money on college football, they pretty much deserve what they get. The game is too unpredictable now. In most games, especially this time of year, winning and losing comes down to 2 or 3 plays in a game. Take my picks, for instance. Here is how what looked to be a 9-1 week quickly turned into 4-6. The ACC is the most unpredictable conference in football. I’ve got the scars to prove it. I went 0-4 in the ACC last week and all four of the games looked like they were going the other way until the final moments:
Florida State was going in for the winning touchdown inside the final minute when Georgia Tech safety Cooper Taylor knocked the ball loose from Marcus Sims in the end zone to give the Yellow Jackets a 31-28 victory.
Duke missed a 41-yard field goal in the final seconds of regulation and lost in OT to Wake Forest, 33-30.
Virginia was in control against Miami but the Hurricanes took advantage of two late turnovers to win 24-17 in overtime.
Playing at home, Boston College fought back from a 17-0 deficit to take a 21-17 lead with 8:43 left. But the Tigers rallied to beat the Eagles for the first time in 50 years, 27-17.
Those four games combined with the pick of Texas over Texas Tech, which scored with one second left to win, plus the oh-so-wrong pick of Georgia over Florida is how a potentially good weekend goes into the ditch.
That gives us a 62-38 record on the year with the hope that when it comes to picking games, your humble servant will have a November to remember. But don’t bet the ranch, or anything else, on it.
Here, my friends, is another Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Georgia Tech (7-2) at North Carolina (6-2): Georgia Tech suffered a huge loss in left tackle Andrew Gardner, which means the offensive line has to be reshuffled to go against a pretty athletic North Carolina defense. This will be a very good game but North Carolina, which finds ways to make teams throw (17 interceptions), will nip Georgia Tech at the end. North Carolina 17, Georgia Tech 14.
2. Georgia (7-2) at Kentucky (6-3): Getting Georgia up to play this game after last week’s beat down by the Gators is going to be a tough task for Mark Richt and his staff. If Kentucky were a little bit better on offense, I’d be tempted to pick the Wildcats in an upset because the UK defense is pretty good. Georgia’s skill level gets them through a very tough game. Georgia 20, Kentucky 14.
3. Alabama (9-0) at LSU (6-2): LSU can’t defend its national championship but the Tigers can damage Nick Saban’s chances of winning one with an upset win in Baton Rouge. Alabama’s plan is simple. Use the nation’s No. 2 rushing defense to slow down RB Charles Scott, believing that redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee is not good enough to win the game. This will be one of the most physical football games you’ll see this season. And when it comes to a street fight, I like the Crimson Tide. Alabama 21, LSU 17.
4. Florida (7-1) at Vanderbilt (5-3): Both of Florida’s national championship teams, 1996 and 2006, had to fight just to get out of Vanderbilt with a win. The Gators are coming off their best performance of the year against Florida and there is a tendency to let down. But with one loss, No. 5 Florida knows it has to keep winning big to stay in the BCS race. The Gators just have too much speed. Florida 35, Vanderbilt 10.
5. Arkansas (4-5) at South Carolina (6-3): Don’t look now but the Head Ball Coach at South Carolina is putting together a pretty good season after an 0-2 start in the SEC. If QB Stephen Garcia (ankle) was completely healthy, the Gamecocks would be more comfortable about this game. South Carolina wins because of the nation’s No. 3 defense (250.67 ypg). South Carolina 17, Arkansas 13.
6. Clemson (4-4) at Florida State (6-2): It’s Bowden Bowl X but one of the Bowdens, Tommy, has already taken Clemson’s money and gone to the beach. With Maryland’s loss to Virginia Tech last night, Florida State can win the ACC Atlantic by running the table against Clemson, Boston College, and Maryland plus one more loss by Wake Forest. Saturday will also be Bobby Bowden’s 79th birthday. Florida State 31, Clemson 17.
7. Virginia (5-4) at Wake Forest (5-3): This is an ACC elimination game. Wake Forest (3-2 ACC) has to keep winning to stay alive in the ACC Atlantic. Virginia (2-2) is in the same boat in the Coastal. Virginia is pretty scary with that big offensive line and running back Cedric Peerman. But Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe has been working on his running game for just such an occasion. This will be a very good football game. Wake Forest 17, Virginia 13.
8. Cincinnati (6-2) at West Virginia (6-2): Since a 1-2 start West Virginia has reeled off five straight wins and is all alone atop the Big East standings. Last week the Mountaineers eliminated Connecticut (35-13) and this week they get a chance to hand the Bearcats their second conference loss. As long as QB Pat White is vertical, go with the Mountaineers. West Virginia 31, Cincinnati 17.
9. Penn State (9-0) at Iowa (5-4): People keep wondering if Penn State is going to stumble somewhere along the way. This trip to Iowa City may not be easy because the Hawkeyes are on a three-game winning streak. Penn State has more speed and more athleticism and they have Joe Pa, who seems to be having a charmed season. That, and the return of QB Darryl Clark (concussion), should be enough for the Nittany Lions to win. Penn State 28, Iowa 13.
10. Oklahoma State (8-1) at Texas Tech (9-0): The No. 2 Red Raiders won the biggest game in their history last week against No. 1 Texas. They will have to play even better to beat the Cowboys Saturday night in Lubbock. Oklahoma State’s running game (273.56 ypg) is the fifth-best in the nation and the Cowboys will use it to keep the ball away from QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree. Oklahoma State also has a great passing combo in QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant (60 catches, 1,054 yards). Part of me wants to pick the upset but I can’t go against the Red Raiders in Lubbock. Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma State 27.
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