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Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Big 12 or SEC: Who gets left out of the BCS?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I was on a conference call yesterday with Tim Brando and Spencer Tillman as we prepared for this Saturday’s College Football Today show on CBS. Just for fun, we started discussing worst case scenarios for the BCS. What COULD happen to bring about, as Brando loves to say, the greatest amount of “angst, anger and bitterness” against the BCS?
We discussed a number of scenarios, including the possibility that No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Texas Tech finish 13-0 while No. 3 Penn State and Joe Paterno go 12-0 and get left out of the BCS championship game. It would be the fifth time in his remarkable career that Paterno has gone undefeated (1968, 1969, 1973, 1994 were the others) and not won the national championship.
That result would not be popular in the Big Ten, to be sure. And it would not be popular among fans who would like to see Joe Pa get one last shot at a championship. But elsewhere I don’t think it causes that much of a ripple.
Yes, the human polls have Penn State No. 2 right now, but if Texas Tech goes 13-0 against a schedule that includes No. 4 Texas (No. 1 when they played the Longhorns), No. 6 Oklahoma, No. 9 Oklahoma State, you have to put the Red Raiders in ahead of Penn State, whose only wins over ranked teams would be against No. 11 Ohio State and No. 18 Michigan State. Texas Tech would have more wins (13 to 12) against a tougher schedule.
There would also be the Ohio State factor. The voters would remember that the Big Ten champ had been beaten soundly the past two years by the SEC champ. It may not be fair to punish Penn State for the sins of Ohio State. But it would be a factor in the final decision by the poll voters.
But this morning, after taking a long look at the BCS standings my ultimate Doomsday scenario, the one that will cause the most uproar, goes like this:
No. 2 Texas Tech loses at No. 6 Oklahoma on Nov. 22. Penn State moves to No. 2 (trust me, they will).
Everybody wins out and on championship Saturday, Dec. 6, the BCS Standings are:
1) Alabama (12-0)
2) Penn State (12-0)
3) Texas (11-1)
4) Florida (11-1). Florida might catch Texas for No. 3. It will be close.
5) Oklahoma (11-1)
6) Texas Tech (11-1)
7) Southern Cal (10-1)
If Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship game, it’s simple. Alabama’s in and Penn State, which had not played since Nov. 22, would join the Crimson Tide in South Florida for the BCS national championship on Jan. 8. All those one-loss teams would stake their claim to the No. 2 spot but the arguments would not last long.
But what if No. 4 Florida beats No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game and No. 3 Texas beats No. 14 Missouri for the Big 12 championship? Penn State moves to No. 1 (trust me, it will) and both Texas and Florida finish 12-1. Who’s No. 2? Who gets left out of the BCS championship game?
Texas will argue that its only loss was to the No. 6 team in the BCS (Texas Tech) on the road in a game that the Longhorns led with less than 90 seconds left.
Florida would argue that it just beat No. 1 and that its only loss was by one point to Ole Miss on Sept. 27 and that, since then, the Gators have been dominant.
Texas will argue that it beat No. 1 (Oklahoma) back on Oct. 11 and that Florida’s loss came at home, which is worse than losing at Lubbock.
Florida will argue that the SEC is a stronger league that has won the last two national championships.
And so it goes. The SEC and the Big 12 have been the best two conferences all season but in this scenario one of the champions gets left out in favor of an undefeated team from the Big Ten.
So if all this happens—and it’s not far-fetched—which team (Texas or Florida) should get in the big game? The floor is yours.
