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October 2008
Dawgs edge Gators; ‘Noles nip Tech
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Jacksonville—I’ve said for a long time that the fans of Georgia and Florida really want one thing out of a college football season: To arrive in Jacksonville each year with a lot still on the line. Well, both sets of fans should be happy today. They have rolled into town with EVERYTHING still on the line. My friend Pat Dooley of the Gainesville Sun said it is the biggest Georgia-Florida game ever. It well could be.
The most important thing that will happen today, however, is that the fans of both teams will fill up the golf courses and restaurants.
It is weekends like this that I really miss our friend Lewis Grizzard. He would really be enjoying this.
With your permission, I will file this humble edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast and rush off join a couple of my fraternity brothers for a round of golf and a bunch of lies about our misspent youth. This is the 23rd time in the past 24 years we’ve had a reunion around this game. And this kind of story is being repeated all over this town today. It is why, with all due respect to Coach Mark Richt, the Georgia-Florida game should NEVER leave Jacksonville. It’s just too much fun.
Last week we got back on track with a 7-3 record to give us a mark of 58-32 for the year. It’s been a great week with a great weekend to come. I hope you, unlike me, will be able to keep it in the short grass.
1. Georgia (7-1) vs. Florida (6-1) at Jacksonville: The way the Gators have been rolling up points, it is tempting to pick Florida. They have the revenge factor on their side but I think that lasts about two possessions for a game at this level. I like Georgia because of their balance. Knowshon Moreno has 10 games of over 100 yards at Georgia. The Bulldogs are 10-0 in those games. After Saturday, Moreno will have 11 games over 100 yards and Georgia will have its second straight win over the Gators, a first since 1988-89. Georgia 37, Florida 34.
2. Florida State (6-1) at Georgia Tech (6-2): Florida State has finally found an offensive identity with quarterback Christian Ponder and running back Antone Smith. The Seminoles now have a solid running game to back up the nation’s No. 3 defense (247.9 ypg, 79.9 rushing per game). Florida State is 12-0 against Georgia Tech since joining the ACC and has the speed on defense to run with the option attack of the Yellow Jackets. Tech needs to hit a couple of home runs because it is going to be difficult to sustain drives against this FSU defense. Florida State 24, Georgia Tech 20.
3. Tennessee (3-5) at South Carolina (5-3): One team will be excited about playing this game (South Carolina).The other (Tennessee) can’t be too fired up with all of the controversy surrounding the job status of coach Phillip Fulmer. It’s going to be a low scoring game as the offenses are ranked 79th and 112th and the defenses are 14 (Tennessee) and four (South Carolina). The way Tennessee’s offense is playing right now, the Volunteers might not score unless the defense forces turnovers. South Carolina 17, Tennessee 7.
4. Auburn (4-4) at Ole Miss (4-4): Ole Miss always provides a “warm” welcome for Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, who was their head coach for 1995-98. Now Tuberville is fighting for his coaching life and needs a good win. Ole Miss has beaten Florida on the road and had four losses by a touchdown or less. A win would all but assure the Rebels will be bowl eligible as they play Louisiana-Monroe next week. Auburn has to force QB Jevan Snead (11 interceptions) to turn the ball over. Ole Miss 24, Auburn 20.
5. Kentucky (5-3) at Miss. State (3-5): Kentucky got embarrassed at Florida (63-5) last week but the Wildcats are still a pretty solid team with a good defense. In order to jump start the offense, coach Rick Brooks will start true freshman Randall Cobb at quarterback. Mississippi State needs a win here because the Bulldogs finish with Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. They won’t get it. Kentucky 17, Miss. State 7.
6. Arkansas State (4-3) at Alabama (8-0): Alabama has had a tendency to play down to an inferior opponent but the Crimson Tide really needs to take care of business on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama has the big trip to LSU coming up next week and is sitting at No. 2 in the BCS Standings with the sentimental favorite, Penn State’s Joe Paterno, resting at No. 3. Alabama does not want to give the voters in the polls one moment to doubt. Alabama 35, Arkansas State 7.
7.Clemson (3-4) at Boston College (5-2): Boston College (2-2 ACC) has no margin for error if it wants to stay in the hunt in the ACC Atlantic. The problem for the Eagles, and the hope for Clemson, is that quarterback Chris Crane has reverted to this old ways. He had three interceptions last week and has 12 picks (to 7 touchdowns) on the season. Clemson has had a week off since its 21-17 home loss to Georgia Tech. Clemson’s team psyche is fragile at home. It will not be better on the road. Boston College 28, Clemson 17.
8. Miami (5-3) at Virginia (5-3): Nobody has done a better coaching job the last four weeks than Virginia’s Al Groh. The Cavaliers beat Georgia Tech last week for their fourth straight win after a 1-3 start. During the winning streak Virginia Tech has scored an average of 26.5 points and gained 382 yards after averaging 9.0 points in the first four games. Miami still has issues on offense and won’t get them resolved against a pretty good Virginia defense. Virginia 28, Miami 14.
9. Duke (4-3) at Wake Forest (4-3): Wake Forest has beaten Duke eight straight times and desperately needs a win here to stay alive in the ACC Atlantic. Deacon coach Jim Grobe is determined to revive the Wake Forest running game, which is why he ran the ball 52 times in a 16-10 loss to Miami last week. Duke, which is trying to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1994, could take a big step in that direction with a win. Duke 21, Wake Forest 17.
10. Texas (8-0) at Texas Tech (8-0): This is easily the biggest game ever in Lubbock, Tex. Texas Tech and quarterback Graham Harrell are No. 3 nationally in scoring offense (48.0 ppg). Harrell has thrown for 3,147 yards and 28 touchdowns with only five interceptions. Texas is a more physical team and will be able to take advantage of that unless the Longhorns get behind and have to start throwing. Texas ranks 110th nationally in passing defense, giving up 265.5 yards per game. This one is going to be wild. Texas 52, Texas Tech 45.
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Five burning questions about Georgia-Florida
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As we head out of town towards Jacksonville, here are five burning questions about Saturday’s Georgia-Florida game. What are yours?
1. Will Georgia kick the ball to Brandon James?: Invariably a game as big as this one will come down to turnovers and a big play/mistake in the kicking game. I know that Georgia has an outstanding punter in Brian Mimbs (43.8 avg.) so the temptation is to let him boom kicks all over the place. But if Florida’s Brandon James touches the ball four or five times on punts he is probably going to take one to the house. He already has punt returns of 74 yards (against Hawaii) and 78 yards (against Tennessee) for touchdowns. He is averaging 20.2 yards on punt returns and 28.8 yards on kickoff returns. This guy can change the face of an entire game in just a few seconds. In case you’re keeping score at home, Georgia has not given up a punt return for a touchdown since 2001 (Marvin Jackson of Arkansas), Mark Richt’s first year as head coach. Georgia leads the SEC in net punting (38.4 ypr) which means the Bulldogs cover well.
2. How much does a healthy Tim Tebow mean to Florida?: Tebow was really banged up (non-throwing shoulder) for last year’s game with the Bulldogs and, because so much of the offense went through him, the Gators struggled. Tebow, who carried the ball 210 times last season, has only run the ball 82 times in seven games this season. But Tebow has used his break from running the ball to become a pretty efficient passer. He has completed 63.4 percent of his passes, which is the best among starting quarterbacks in the SEC. He has thrown only two interceptions (and 12 touchdowns) in 164 passing attempts. Georgia has to get some pressure on Tebow and make him uncomfortable and out of his rhythm while throwing the football. The teams that have had success against Florida the past two seasons have tended to be very physical with Tebow.
3. Will Georgia keep a watchful eye on Jeff Demps and Florida’s “block party?” It’s pretty obvious what Demps, the true freshman, can do when he gets his hands on the ball. He only has 30 carries on the season but has averaged 11.9 yards per carry. Despite carrying the ball only 30 times, he is in the SEC’s Top 10 for rushing yards per game (51.0 avg.) The average length on his four touchdown runs is 47 yards. But he is also very dangerous as the outside rusher on the punt block team. Demps blocked a punt against Kentucky, his second this season. Florida blocked a total of three kicks (2 punts, one FG) against the Wildcats. Georgia’s Mimbs has had only one punt blocked in the past two years, that coming against Tennessee in 2007.
4. Will Knowshon Moreno rush for over 100 yards?: If he does, the odds say that Georgia will win. Moreno has posted 10 games over 100 yards or more at Georgia and the Bulldogs are 10-0 in those games. Florida is third in the SEC in rushing defense (behind Alabama and Georgia) giving up 102.7 yards per game and 3.4 yards per attempt. Only one back (Michael Smith of Arkansas) has rushed for over 100 yards against the Florida defense this season. Only three of Florida’s seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards: Ole Miss (163), Arkansas (144), Kentucky (141). Another note on Moreno: Only one back in Georgia history (Herschel Walker) has rushed for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. With 76 yards on Saturday Moreno will become the second.
5. Who will commit the fewest penalties?: Georgia still has the dubious honor of leading the nation in penalties per game with an average of 9.5 (76 penalties in eight games). But Florida is not far behind as the Gators have committed 57 penalties in seven games (8.14 average). The number of penalties is important in this respect: If you’re committing almost 10 penalties a game, chances are one is going to be called at a crucial moment that wipes out a big play on offense or defense. After last season’s end zone celebration by Georgia, the SEC officials will be calling it pretty tight early on in an effort to keep control of the game. Expect the officials to call some ticky-tack stuff, especially in the first half. The team that can adjust to the officials will have a distinct advantage.
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Georgia-Florida IS a BCS elimination game
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Nobody asked me but…
1. Say it with me: Georgia-Florida IS ABSOLUTELY a BCS elimination game: I’ve had some people take issue with my statement that Saturday’s showdown between No. 6 Georgia and No. 8 Florida is a BCS elimination game. “But Tony,” they plead, “Look what happened to LSU last year!” Yes, LSU did get into the national championship game with two losses (11-2) last season. But understand that the stars had to be perfectly aligned for LSU. No. 1 and No. 2 both had to lose on Championship Saturday and LSU had to jump from No. 7 to No. 2. When you have five undefeated teams in the BCS Top 10 and three SEC teams in the top eight with one or no losses on Nov. 1, the odds are against the SEC champion having two losses and getting into the game. I know the loser of this game wants to hold out hope. But the fact is that the winner in Jacksonville stays in the BCS hunt and the loser starts making plans for the Outback Bowl.
2. With a win, Georgia can and SHOULD jump over Southern Cal: I know the human pollsters just love Southern Cal, which is ranked No. 5 in the BCS Standings. But if No. 6 Georgia can beat No. 8 Florida on Saturday, the Bulldogs have a real chance to jump over the Trojans into the No. 5 spot. By beating LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks, the Bulldogs should pick up some votes from the humans. The computers will certainly smile on Georgia if it beats Florida while frowning on Southern Cal, which has Washington (0-7) this week. Washington is a 43-point underdog whose coach just announced that he’s stepping down. No matter how badly the Trojans beat the Huskies, it won’t, and shouldn’t, help. If Florida beats Georgia and No. 7 Texas Tech loses to No. 1 Texas, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Gators jump over Southern Cal into the No. 5 spot.
3. David Cutlciffe is not coming back to Tennessee: Should Tennessee make a change at head coach, and that is beginning to look more likely by the day, there has been speculation that David Cutcliffe, who served two terms as the Tennessee OC and is now the head coach at Duke (4-3) might return. It’s understandable that Cutcliffe’s name would come up. Here are the numbers: With Cutcliffe calling the plays, Phillip Fulmer’s teams were 85-19. With somebody else calling the plays, the record is 65-31. But it’s not going to happen. Cutcliffe and Fulmer are very close. The only way Cutcliffe comes back is if Fulmer gave his blessing and convinced him that it was for the good of the program. I know this has become a cutthroat business, but there is still a little loyalty left out there. Isn’t there?
4. Texas has impressed me: The Longhorns and Colt McCoy still haven’t faced a really good defense. In fact, the best defense in the Big 12 belongs to Texas, and it’s ranked No 43. But you have to be impressed after watching Texas beat No. 1 (at the time) Oklahoma, No. 11 Missouri, and No. 7 Oklahoma State on consecutive weeks. Now Texas has to go on the road to face No. 8 Texas Tech (8-0). If Texas wins that will be four victories over four teams ranked in the Top 11 on four consecutive Saturdays. Three of the four will have been undefeated at the time that Texas won. I don’t think they keep records on this but it must be one of the best four-week performances ever by a team.
5. Florida State is a year ahead of schedule: When I went to visit Florida State this summer, the conventional wisdom in Tallahassee was that 2008 was the setup year for making a serious run at the ACC championship in 2009. But Florida State has finally found its identity with a tough, physical running game and another good defense built by Mickey Andrews. Georgia Tech will have its hands full with the Seminoles on Saturday. If Florida State wins the ACC championship and Penn State slips into the BCS title game, do Bobby Bowden and Joe Paterno walk out the door together? Not a chance.
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Why this is Georgia’s biggest game with Florida in 20 years
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Everybody knows what’s on the line Saturday when Georgia and Florida meet in Jacksonville. Lord knows we’ll try, but what’s at stake can’t be overstated. It is no less than an elimination game for the BCS national championship and a spot in the SEC title game in Atlanta on Dec. 6. From a sheer rankings standpoint (Georgia 6, Florida 8), it’s the biggest meeting since 1999 when the Bulldogs were No. 5 and the Gators were No. 10.
But strictly from the Georgia perspective, this is the Bulldogs’ biggest game with Florida in almost 20 years. Here’s why: On Saturday Georgia will get a chance to win its second straight game over Florida for the first time since 1988-89. And for the Bulldog Nation it will be an opportunity to start reversing one of the most painful trends in their history.
Consider this: Steve Spurrier did a lot of remarkable things in his 12 years as the head coach at Florida. Before The Head Ball Coach got to Gainesville in 1990, the Gators had never won 10 games in a season and had never won an SEC championship. When he left after the 2001 season, Florida had posted NINE seasons of 10 wins or more and six SEC titles.
But I still believe that among Spurrier’s greatest accomplishments as the head Gator was his ability to completely reverse the psychology of the Georgia-Florida game in Jacksonville. Understand that when Spurrier arrived Georgia was dominating the series. Vince Dooley had won 17 out of 25 and the momentum had carried over into Ray Goff’s first season in 1989, when the Bulldogs won 17-10. And at no time in that 26-year period (1964-89) did Florida ever win two straight games.
There were Florida fans who wanted to move the game out of Jacksonville, convinced that Georgia had some built in advantage. A whole generation of Gators grew up believing that there was some unseen, unknown reason why Florida couldn’t beat Georgia.
Spurrier arrives and quickly announces that the whole notion is silly. The game, he said, is an hour from campus in a stadium called (at the time) The Gator Bowl. Then he proceeded to beat Georgia 11 out of the next 12 years. It so changed the psychology of the game that even after Spurrier left in 2001 it carried over into the next two coaches: Ron Zook was 2-1 against Georgia while Urban Meyer is 2-1. Florida’s lingering mojo was such that in 2002 Georgia took its best team in 20 years (13-1) down to Jacksonville to play an 8-5 team with a rookie head coach (Zook). Georgia lost its only game that season (20-13) with a vastly superior team. It probably cost Georgia a shot at the national championship.
The point is that reversing this kind of psychological trend is like turning around a battle ship. It takes time. Last year’s win in Jacksonville was huge for Georgia. But if Florida comes back and wins on Saturday, the Gators will be 16-3 against the Bulldogs since 1990 and will have gone 20 years without losing consecutive games. Florida can rightfully say that it still controls the series.
A Georgia win, however, puts that in doubt. And when a team like Georgia is trying to reassert itself after being dominated for so long, a little doubt can go a long way.
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Florida is hot. Georgia should stay cool.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. Florida is hot. Georgia should stay cool: Somebody asked me Sunday night how Georgia, which faces a Florida team still fired up about last season’s end zone “celebration,” would be able to match the intensity of the Gators at the beginning of Saturday’s game in Jacksonville.
My response?
They shouldn’t. They don’t need to.
Florida’s Urban Meyer has put a gag order on his team not to talk about last year’s events, which Meyer chronicled in Buddy Martin’s new book “Urban’s Way.” Martin is a master storyteller who got unprecedented access to Meyer to do the book. It’s clear from the chapter on last year’s Georgia-Florida game that the episode did not set well with the Florida coach. He is trying to keep his guys pretty buttoned down for one of the biggest Georgia-Florida games in a long, long time. And that’s fine because it is consistent with his coaching personality.
Georgia’s Mark Richt, however, should take the opposite approach this week. Be happy. Have fun. In my experience with this game it’s usually the team that stays loose that plays the best. Why do you think Steve Spurrier went 11-1 against Georgia? Spurrier expected to win and so his team expected to win.
2. Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback in college football: I say this with all due respect to Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, and Sam Bradford, who are all great football players. But when it comes to the entire package that you’re looking for in a quarterback—strong arm, game management, coolness under fire, Stafford proved he is the best quarterback in college football last Saturday against LSU. It took a few minutes for Stafford to calm himself down, but after that he was in complete control of that football game. When the LSU defensive coordinators tried to throw a wrinkle at him, Stafford checked off into the play to beat the defense. It was easily the best game he’s played at Georgia. I write all of this knowing that Stafford could come back and struggle this Saturday in Jacksonville. But when he plays the way he did in Baton Rouge, he is the best in the game, period. If he played with the Big 12, where receivers run free as the wind, he’d be in the hunt for the Heisman Trophy. And another thing: For all those out there complaining about Mike Bobo’s play calling last week against Vanderbilt, just sit down and watch the entire LSU game again.
3. It’s hard to see Fulmer returning as Tennessee’s coach: Phillip Fulmer is an old offensive lineman which means he will work and fight until the last game is over. But what I saw Saturday night in Knoxville was a sense of resignation that Fulmer will not be able to get the program at Tennessee turned around. In case you’re keeping score at home, Fulmer is now 3-5 against Mark Richt, 0-4 against Urban Meyer, and 1-4 against Nick Saban. The defense played hard but the offense is so bad it makes one numb to watch. And there is no reason to believe it is going to get any better. Tennessee (3-5) has four games left (South Carolina, Wyoming, Vanderbilt, Kentucky). The Vols will be lucky to win two. And here is the clincher: I was on the field for the last five minutes of Saturday night’s game with Alabama. I couldn’t believe how much Crimson was in that stadium and how loud they were. When you’ve got Tennessee people selling their tickets to Alabama fans then Mike Hamilton (Tennessee athletics director), you have a problem.
4. We love Joe Paterno but….. It would be a great story to see Penn State’s Joe Paterno, 81, play in the national championship game and then call it a career. But let’s have a dose of reality here. If No. 1 Texas (8-0) and No. 2 Alabama (8-0) both win out and finish 13-0, the voters in the human polls can’t get all sappy and want to put Joe Pa in the big game just because it would be a nice thing to do. That is simply not going to happen. Texas and Bama would be undefeated against two of the toughest schedules around. Penn State’s best win will be against an Ohio State team that will finish 10-2 at best. Hey, I love a good story line as much as the next guy. But good story lines don’t trump good football. Texas and Alabama are both better teams. Now if one of them loses, Penn State will definitely get in the big game at 12-0. And if an undefeated Penn State gets left out of the BCS championship, Joe Pa can have a conversation with his commissioner, Jim Delany, who fought hard against the SEC/ACC proposal for a four-team playoff.
5. Georgia Tech fans must stay patient with Josh Nesbitt: When Nesbitt has three turnovers as he did against Virginia, there is the temptation to go the safer route with freshman Jaybo Shaw at quarterback. But coach Paul Johnson will stick with Nesbitt because he knows the payoff is coming down the road. If you talk to the defensive coaches around the ACC, they will tell you that the Georgia Tech offense has an extra home run dimension when Nesbitt is running it. Georgia played Matt Stafford as a freshman knowing that he was going to make mistakes. But you play through the mistakes until the quarterback masters the offense. Nesbitt will master this offense and when he does, it’s going to be scary.
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The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
How bad have my picks been lately? Let us count the ways:
They are sinking faster than my 401-K and, based on yesterday’s statement, that is hard to do.
They are worse than Auburn’s tackling last night, which was horrible for an SEC defense.
They are dumber than the computer rankings in the BCS formula, which have Ohio State No. 5 and Southern Cal, the team that beat the Buckeyes 35-3, at No. 10. “How does that happen?” USC coach Pete Carroll rightly asks. “Nice system.”
But 5-5 is what happens when you miss on your three upset picks (South Carolina over LSU, Missouri over Texas, Duke over Miami) and have another pick (Wake Forest over Maryland) that suddenly can’t seem to score.
That puts us at 51-29 for the season and, given the competitiveness of these 10 games below, we could be in for another beating on Saturday. But you have to admit it is entertaining, which is why we press on with another edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Georgia (6-1) at LSU (5-1): I know that a team with two losses (LSU) got into the national championship game last season. I just don’t see it happening this season. Therefore, this will likely be an elimination game for two teams that began this season with an eye on the BCS championship. Georgia’s Mark Richt has been very good on the road (27-4 in opponent’s stadiums) because he usually has two things: A good quarterback and a good defense. He takes both of those to Baton Rouge Saturday afternoon. If given a little time, Matt Stafford and A.J. Green could have a big day. Georgia 24, LSU 21.
2. Virginia (4-3) at Georgia Tech (6-1): This is the first really big game of the Paul Johnson era. If Tech wins and Florida State beats Virginia Tech, the Yellow Jackets control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. Virginia is a huge team that just blows people off the line of scrimmage for running back Cedric Peerman, who is playing very well. But Georgia Tech counters with what may be the best defensive line in college football. Defense wins big games and Georgia Tech will win this one. Georgia Tech 17, Virginia 10.
3. Alabama (7-0) at Tennessee (3-4): Alabama will be without the focal point of its defense, NT Terrence Cody. And if Tennessee can take advantage of that this could be a four-quarter game. Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer is 10-4-1 against Alabama over his career and he has never needed a win over the Crimson Tide as badly as he needs this one. I just get the sense that the offense will again let Tennessee down with untimely turnovers. Alabama 21, Tennessee 17.
4. Ole Miss (3-4) at Arkansas (3-4): Houston Nutt returns to Fayetteville, where he led the Hogs to a pair of SEC championship games before taking their $3 million and leaving town at the end of last season. It will be an emotional day on both sides but at the end of the day, Ole Miss wins because it has a pretty good SEC defense. Arkansas does not. Ole Miss 31, Arkansas 21.
5. Kentucky (5-2) at Florida (5-1): Florida will certainly be looking ahead to next week’s trip to Jacksonville to play Georgia. But it won’t matter because what little firepower that Kentucky offense had is now gone to injury. The Wildcats’ have lost their best receiver, Dicky Lyons, Jr., and their best running back, Derrick Locke, to injury. The UK defense is still for real but that group is beat up as well. Florida has beaten Kentucky 21 straight times. After Saturday it will be 22. Florida 31, Kentucky 7.
6. Duke (3-3) at Vanderbilt (5-2): It’s a big game for both teams as each believes it can get to a bowl this season. After a 5-0 start, Vanderbilt will be trying for the third straight week to get bowl eligible. Duke has hit a rough patch after a 3-1 start with losses to Georgia Tech (27-0) and Miami (49-31). Vanderbilt has the stronger defense and quarterback MacKenzi Adams played reasonably well last week at Georgia. Vanderbilt is undefeated at home and will stay that way. Vanderbilt 24, Duke 20.
7. Virginia Tech (5-2) at Florida State (5-1): A lot of eyes around the ACC will be watching this one. Florida State gets the edge because quarterback Christian Ponder, who rushed for 144 yards against Miami and threw for 254 yards against N.C. State, is getting better every week. The Florida State defense is ranked No. 3 in the country and will be asked to handle a Virginia Tech offense ranked 110. They should be able to do that. Florida State 24, Virginia Tech 14.
8. Boston College (5-1) at North Carolina (5-2): The Tar Heels lost a heartbreaker in overtime at Virginia last week and need a win to stay in the hunt in the ACC Coastal. A young but talented North Carolina defense has to find a way to contain BC quarterback Chris Crane who has thrown for 646 yards in his last two games. But Crane has also thrown nine interceptions. North Carolina also must find a way to score against a defense ranked No. 4 (251 ypg) in the nation. The Tar Heels get the edge at home. North Carolina 13, Boston College 10.
9. Penn State (8-0) at Ohio State (7-1): For all intents and purposes the Big Ten championship will be on the line at the Horseshoe in Columbus. Penn State has beaten eight opponents by an average of 33.6 points per game but has not faced a team that is ranked in the Top 25 of the BCS. That changes Saturday night at Ohio State, where the Nittany Lions have lost seven straight games. Penn State has also lost 10 straight road games to ranked opponents. Ohio State will feed running back Beanie Wells a bunch and wins an old-fashioned game in the trenches. Ohio State 17, Penn State 13.
10. Oklahoma State (7-0) at Texas (7-0): Texas plays its third big-time game in as many weeks and as long as QB Colt McCoy stays hot, the Longhorns are going to be just fine. McCoy is completing 82.1 percent of his passes this season and with him in command the Texas offense has been scary good. But Oklahoma State can throw a few weapons at you as well. The Cowboys are fifth in the nation in rushing offense (283.14 ypg) and their quarterback, Zac Robinson, is the nation’s third-most efficient passer (70.15 percent). Texas has a young secondary and could give up some yards. This will be another wild one. Texas 45, Oklahoma State 38.
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Can the UGA O-Line protect Stafford?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the weekend:
1. Can the Georgia O-Line give Stafford just a LITTLE protection?: If they can, Georgia has a real shot to win at LSU on Saturday. Many times we try to make football more complicated than it really is. But Saturday’s game in Baton Rouge really comes down to how well Georgia’s banged-up, baby-faced offensive line can play against the best defensive line this side of Georgia Tech’s. Florida gave Tim Tebow pretty good protection back on Oct. 11 in Gainesville and he sliced and diced that rebuilt LSU secondary. Matt Stafford and the Georgia receivers can do the same. But if the UGA O-Line, which is on its fourth starting left tackle, cannot protect and give Knowshon Moreno a little running room it will be a long afternoon for the Dawgs. One other thing: Georgia cannot give up on the running game, even if it’s not working in the first half.
2. What will the Auburn offense look like tonight?: Head coach Tommy Tuberville has been playing his cards pretty close to the vest during the off week. When he let OC Tony Franklin go two weeks ago, there really wasn’t enough time to make a lot of changes before the Tigers played at Arkansas. So what does Auburn do tonight at West Virginia? Do they go back to the I-formation and power running game? Do they take the redshirt off true freshman Barrett Trotter? Do they have enough offense of any kind just to win the game? Is Tuberville, who has beaten Alabama six straight times, really in trouble? If Auburn wins tonight, does the criticism lessen?
3. Will Saturday night be Phillip Fulmer’s last stand? Saturday night’s game against Alabama will be Phillip Fulmer’s 200th as the head coach at Tennessee. This is Fulmer’s 16th full season as the Volunteers head coach. Saturday night’s game could well determine if he is around for No. 17. There is no way to sugar coat this: It has been a bad season on Rocky Top for Fulmer and his offensive coaching staff. There is this nagging sense that if the Volunteers (3-4) lose and drop to 3-5, it’s going to be hard for Fulmer to survive. I’m going to Knoxville Saturday night because I want to see the mood of the crowd. They will be jacked up at the beginning of this game because it’s Alabama and there is an opportunity to beat the No. 2 team in the land and salvage something from this disappointing season. But what happens if the game turns ugly and Tennessee gets embarrassed? Or what happens if Tennessee wins? Either way, it’s going to be an interesting evening at Neyland Stadium.
4. What kind of crowd will turn out for Georgia Tech-Virginia?: I can’t tell you how many Georgia Tech fans have told me over the years that they would go to the games if the team would just give them something to get excited about. Well, how about this: If Georgia Tech beats Virginia on Saturday and Virginia Tech loses at Florida State (which could certainly happen), the Yellow Jackets will control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. Paul Johnson is well on his way to becoming the ACC Coach of the Year. The ACC is completely wide open and Johnson has the Jackets contending for the championship. Given the way Virginia is playing this is one of the biggest games in the country on Saturday. This team deserves a sellout or at least close to a sellout.
5. Will Texas and Colt McCoy finally cool off?: I picked Missouri to beat Texas last week because the Longhorns had invested so much and played so well in the 45-35 win over Oklahoma the week before. I reasoned that the Longhorns had to have a letdown against a good Missouri team. I was wrong because I didn’t take a couple of things into account: 1) Missouri is not that good; 2) Right now Colt McCoy is the hottest quarterback I’ve ever seen. McCoy has completed a staggering 81.2 percent of his passes (160 of 197) for 1,894 yards and 19 touchdowns with only three interceptions. Last week he completed 29 of 32 passes (90.6 percent). Two of the incomplete passes were drops and the other he threw away. Now Texas and McCoy face another Top 10 team in Oklahoma State Saturday in Austin.
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What the BCS rankings should look like
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Okay, the BCS has spoken for the first time this season. But now it’s our turn. Like you, I have my own opinion about where the teams should be ranked based on performance and not on perception. So here is the first edition of the TB Top 10 for 2008. Included is a breakdown of the remaining schedule for each and their relative chances of getting to Miami on Jan. 8. Take a look at this and then give me your top 10. Then give me who you think WILL be in the BCS title game.
1. TEXAS (7-0)
Remaining schedule: After beating Oklahoma and Missouri the past two weeks, the Longhorns are halfway through a four-game gauntlet. Texas hosts No. 6 Oklahoma State this Saturday and travel to Texas Tech (7-0) on Nov. 1. There is a trap game at Kansas (5-2) on Nov. 15. Then there will be a rematch with Kansas or Missouri in the Big 12 championship game.
Bottom line:If quarterback Colt McCoy, who is completing an unheard of 82 percent of his passes this season, keeps playing like this nobody is going to beat Texas.
2. ALABAMA (7-0)
Remaining schedule: I don’t care what the records say, Saturday night’s trip to Tennessee will not be easy for the Crimson Tide, especially with NT Terrence Cody out of the lineup. The Nov. 8 trip to LSU will likely be for the SEC West title. Then Alabama would get Georgia or Florida in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6.
Bottom line: It concerns me that Alabama seems to sag after halftime. And if Cody can’t get back for the LSU game that could be a problem. Still, this is a hungry football team that has is playing with an edge. They just need to do it for four quarters to win it all.
3. PENN STATE (8-0)
Remaining schedule: Get by Saturday night’s visit to Ohio State, where the Nittany Lions have lost seven straight, and it’s a piece of cake. Only Iowa (5-3), Indiana (2-5), and Michigan State (6-2) remain. Of those three games only Iowa is on the road.
Bottom line: If Texas and Alabama are both 13-0 they get into the BCS championship and Penn State gets left out. But if either drops a game, the voters will not miss out on a chance to put Joe Paterno, 81, in the national championship game.
4. FLORIDA (5-1)
Remaining schedule: The trip to Jacksonville next week to play Georgia will be a war but if Florida survives the Gators should be 11-1 going into the SEC championship game on Dec. 6 against Alabama or LSU.
Bottom line: After watching Ole Miss take Alabama to the limit in Tuscaloosa, the Gators’ 31-30 loss to the Rebels should be viewed in a different light. They have a scary collection of fast players. If Florida finishes 12-1 and beats Alabama in Atlanta, the Gators should be considered the best one-loss team in the mix.
5. OKLAHOMA (6-1)
Remaining schedule: The Sooners should breeze through Kansas State, Nebraska, and Texas A&M the next three weeks. After a week off they finish with a home game against Texas Tech (7-0) and a road game with Oklahoma State (7-0).
Bottom line: If Oklahoma wins out and Texas stumbles once, the Sooners could be in the mix for the BCS title without winning the Big 12 conference. Now that would be fun.
6. GEORGIA (6-1)
Remaining schedule: The Bulldogs’ schedule is as tough as it gets starting with Saturday’s trip to LSU (5-1). Even if it wins in Baton Rouge, Georgia will be beat up when it goes to Jacksonville to play Florida (5-1). Then there are consecutive roads trips to Kentucky (5-2) and Auburn (4-3) before hosting an improving team from Georgia Tech (6-1). Survive all that and Georgia could meet No. 2 Alabama (7-0) in the SEC championship game. Wow.
Bottom line: Georgia is a good team but hasn’t looked like one capable of running the table against that schedule. But if the Bulldogs do finish 12-1 and there is an opening for a one-loss team in the BCS championship, it has to be them.
7. SOUTHERN CAL (5-1)
Remaining schedule: Pete Carroll knows that his schedule is the weakest of any team in the TB Top 10. That’s why he beat Washington State 69-0 nothing last week. The Trojans have six games remaining with Arizona (5-2), Washington (0-6), California (4-2), Stanford (4-4), Notre Dame (4-2), and UCLA (3-4). None are ranked.
Bottom line: The computers have the Trojans at No. 10 but the humans put them at No. 4 and No. 5. The computers rankings do not take margin of victory into account. If USC is going to get into the big game, the humans will put the Trojans there.
8. OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)
Remaining schedule: The Cowboys will get a stern test on Saturday at No. 1 Texas. There is a trip to Texas Tech (7-0) on Nov. 8 and the season finale when it hosts Oklahoma on Nov. 29. Oklahoma State is a good team but winning all three will be difficult.
Bottom line: After two straight losses it appears that Missouri, the best team Oklahoma State has faced, is overrated. But if the Cowboys can run the table and win the Big 12 championship game, they deserve to be in the BCS championship.
9. LSU (5-1)
Remaining schedule: The Tigers’ two toughest remaining games are at home against Georgia on Saturday and Nov. 8 with No. 2 Alabama. This LSU team has some flaws but is capable of beating just about anybody at Tiger Stadium.
Bottom line: People shouldn’t write off LSU because of their 51-21 loss at Florida on Oct. 11. The Tigers are capable of getting to the SEC championship game where they could have a rematch with the Gators. If the Tigers can get to Atlanta at 11-1 then anything can happen. They proved that last season.
10. OHIO STATE
Remaining schedule: If the Buckeyes can knock off No. 3 Penn State Saturday night they have a pretty good shot at finishing 11-1. Ohio State’s final three gams are at Northwestern (6-1), at Illinois (4-3) and at home against woeful Michigan (2-5). Illinois was the only team to beat Ohio State in the regular season in 2007.
Bottom line: If there are multiple one-loss teams on Dec. 7, I think the odds are against Ohio State because voters will remember the 35-3 loss to USC on Sept. 13. After watching the Buckeyes get beat badly in the last two BCS championship games, the voters will figure it’s time to give someone else a chance.
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Some BCS Doomsday Scenarios
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s just for fun, but one of the things I like to do right after the first BCS Standings are released is look for what I call “Doomsday Scenarios.” Those are potential outcomes that will drive the powers that be in college football, or at least some of them, absolutely crazy and spark cries for change in the post-season format for Division I-A football.
Here are some former Doomsday Scenarios that came true:
2000: Miami beats Florida State head to head during the regular season but finishes third behind the Seminoles in the final BCS Standings and gets shut out of the game. Florida State loses to Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl
2001: Nebraska played for the BCS championship but didn’t even win the Big 12. The Cornhuskers were embarrassed by Miami in the Rose Bowl.
2003: Southern Cal finishes No. 1 in both of the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS formula. LSU and Oklahoma play for the BCS championship and USC settles for the AP title. This game changed the BCS formula to weight it more heavily towards the human voters.
2004: Auburn wins the SEC championship at 12-0 and gets shut out of the BCS championship game.
What are the potential Doomsday Scenarios for this season? Here are just five:
1. Penn State gets left out: No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama both finish 13-0 and win their respective conference championship games. Like Auburn in 2004, a 12-0 Penn State, which has not played a game since Nov. 22, finishes No. 3 because it played a weaker schedule. Joe Paterno, 81, is denied the chance to end his career with a national championship game. Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, one of the strongest opponents to a four-team playoff, gets an earful from Paterno.
2. Alabama gets left out: The Crimson Tide has another second-half swoon Saturday night at Tennessee and needs a field goal at the buzzer to win 17-14. Penn State blows out Ohio State and the voters decide it is time for a change and move the Nittany Lions to No. 2 on Sunday. Penn State wins out. For the second time in five years an undefeated SEC team does not make the big game. SEC commissioner Mike Slive reintroduces his plan for a four-team playoff.
3. Southern Cal gets in, 12-1 SEC champ gets left out: The biggest disconnect between the human polls and the computer polls is with the Trojans (5-1), whose loss came at Oregon State (27-21) on Sept. 25. The human polls have them at No. 4 and No. 5 but the computers have USC at No. 10 because of a weak schedule that will only get weaker as the season goes along. But the human polls are now two-thirds of the formula. Let’s say the Trojans get in ahead of a 12-1 Florida team that beat LSU, Georgia, and Alabama and whose only loss was by one point to Ole Miss.
4. Utah or Boise State gets left out: Utah (8-0) of the Mountain West is No. 11 while Boise State (6-0) of the WAC is No. 12. If they go undefeated and hold or improve their current positions both would qualify for an at-large BCS berth. But according to the rules of the BCS only one can go because the rest of the at-large slots are reserved for the big boys. The five Coalition (non-BCS conferences) will fuss a little bit but not much. They had to fight too hard just to get a seat at the BCS table.
5. Big 12 gets hosed again: Last season the Big 12 had three teams ranked in the top eight of the final BCS Standings: No. 4 Oklahoma (11-2), No. 6 Missouri (11-2), and No. 8 Kansas (11-1). Because of the BCS rule that limits each conference to a maximum of two slots, No. 6 Missouri gets left out. This season it could be worse. If Texas loses to Oklahoma State on Saturday, Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma on Nov. 29, and Oklahoma wins out, the Big 12 would have three 11-1 teams ranked in the top five or six. But under the rules, an 11-1 team ranked in the top five could miss a BCS bowl in favor of a lower ranked team from another conference. It happened last season when 9-3 Illinois went to the Rose Bowl. If Penn State beats Ohio State, then the last at-large bid will likely go to the 10-2 Buckeyes.
These are my Doomsday Scenarios. What are yours?
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It’s put up or shut up time for Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. It’s put up or shut up time for Georgia: I mean that in a nice way but here is the reality. Georgia is a good team that has battled through some significant injuries on the offensive line and is 6-1. But the media and those who vote in the polls still have some doubts about the Bulldogs. They see Georgia’s obvious talent at the skill positions. They see a speedy defense that doesn’t give up a lot of big plays. But they wonder why Georgia can dominate games statistically but can’t put teams like Tennessee and Vanderbilt away. Part of that can be chalked up to life in the SEC. Alabama couldn’t put away Ole Miss despite a 24-3 lead. We who live in SEC territory understand that. The folks on the other side of the Mississippi River don’t. Bottom line: Georgia’s staff and its players have managed the season well to be 6-1 at this point. But the preliminaries are over. The next two weeks against LSU and Florida are Showtime. As a player all you want is this kind of opportunity. Now it’s time for Georgia to perform. If Georgia believes that it is one of the elite teams in the country, the time has come for the Bulldogs to state their case.
2. Texas-Bama on collision course for championship but…..: This much we do know about the first BCS rankings. If No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama win out, they will play for the national championship on Jan. 8. Voters don’t like to admit this, but there are brand names in college football and as long as a brand name keeps winning, you don’t drop them in the polls. Besides, Texas and Alabama play much tougher schedules than No. 3 Penn State. So if the Nittany Lions are the odd man out in this deal, tell them to call Auburn and Tommy Tuberville. They know what it feels like to go 13-0 and get shut out. But understand this: Only once in the 10-year history of the BCS have the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the first standings gone on to play for the championship. That was Southern Cal and Texas in 2005.
3. Georgia Tech can win a whacky ACC: With only a three-point loss on the road at Virginia Tech blemishing their record, the Yellow Jackets of Paul Johnson look like the most stable team in the ACC. How do you explain Maryland, which lost to Middle Tennessee State, beating Clemson (20-17) on the road, losing to Virginia 31-0 and then beating Wake Forest 26-0? Virginia appeared to be done when it lost to Duke 31-3 on Sept. 27. But now the Cavaliers have won three straight and are tied for the lead in the ACC Coastal. Georgia Tech (6-1, 3-1) needs to take a care of its business but it also needs for Virginia Tech (5-2, 2-1) to lose again. That could happen on Saturday when the Hokies go to Florida State.
4. Tennessee needs to unleash the “Wild Berry” on Bama: Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer has very logical reasons why the Vols can’t use sophomore defensive back Eric Berry very much on offense. It’s a matter of limited practice time and getting Berry enough reps on the plays so that they are effective. I get it. But I also know that Berry, the sophomore from Fairburn, is one of those special talents that comes along once in a generation. He does extraordinary things when he gets his hands on the ball. He is halfway through his second year and he is already the SEC’s all-time leader in interception return yards. All I know is that I once saw Georgia’s Champ Bailey on the field for 100 snaps in one game. It can be done and with the way Tennessee’s offense is struggling, Fulmer and his staff need to find a way to make sure Berry touches the ball several times against Alabama.
5. You can’t criticize Pete Carroll: I want all of you Southern Cal fans to read this very closely. Understand exactly what I am about to say. Saturday night a bunch of you went nuts on my man Tim Brando after our College Football Today show on CBS. That’s because you didn’t listen to what he said. This is what he said and what I am about to say: I am not saying that Pete Carroll ran up the score in Saturday’s 69-0 win over Washington State. Washington State just might be the worst team in Division I-A. What I am saying is for those who would want to criticize Carroll because you THINK he ran up the score.
You can’t. Oh you can criticize all you want about coaches rolling up big numbers but understand this is simply the new world of the BCS. In the old days coaches could limit the score to take care of their coaching buddies. But as long as the national championship game is basically decided by humans voting in polls then style points matter. Coaches can be criticized if they don’t have their backups in the game at that point. Carroll did.
The BCS has changed the college football world. Coaches have recognized it. The fans need to recognize it too.
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Dawgs, Jackets get it done
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s a good thing I don’t have to back up my picks with cold, hard cash or this morning I would be speaking to you from my second job as a greeter at Wal-Mart.
I’m thankful Georgia (over Tennessee), Georgia Tech (over Gardner-Webb), and North Carolina (over Notre Dame) stepped up or I would have gone 0-for-the weekend. In what turned out to be the second Shakeout Saturday of the season, I went 3-7 which dropped the overall record to 46-24.
I promise to hunker down and try to do better this week. We are bloodied, unbowed, but certainly humbled as we present another version of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Vanderbilt (5-1) at Georgia (5-1): Vanderbilt rarely plays two bad games in a row under Bobby Johnson and last week the Commodores had 10 penalties in their 17-14 loss to Mississippi State. Vanderbilt’s defense is legit but the offense is struggling, which is why MacKenzi Adams will get the start at quarterback over Chris Nickson. If Georgia doesn’t turn the ball over, the Bulldogs will be fine and can start getting ready for next week’s trip to Baton Rouge. If the Dawgs are sloppy, this one could be a little scary. Georgia 28, Vanderbilt 13.
2. Georgia Tech (5-1) at Clemson (3-3): Tommy Bowden is out as head coach and Dabo Swinney, an Alabama man, is in as the interim. Psychologically, Clemson is a very fragile football team and has been known to shrink a little bit when it gets hit in the mouth. Willy Korn gets his first start at quarterback for Clemson against one of the best defensive fronts in the country. Tech needs to come out very aggressive in this one. Georgia Tech 24, Clemson 14.
3. Ole Miss (3-3) at Alabama (5-0): Alabama has had a week off since a sloppy 17 -14 win over Kentucky on Oct. 4. The Crimson Tide is ranked No. 2 and could go to No. 1 if Texas falls to Missouri. That should be motivation enough. Bama’s defense, which is No. 2 in the nation against the rush (50.2 ypg) will shut down the Ole Miss running game and turn up the heat on QB Jevan Snead, who already has nine interceptions. He’ll get at least two more at Bryant-Denny. Alabama 28, Ole Miss. 13.
4. LSU (4-1) at South Carolina (5-2): LSU’s defense was exposed a little last week when Florida used all of those road runners to roll up 265 yards rushing. The Gamecocks don’t have as many weapons as the Gators (nobody does), but they do have WR Kenny McKinley and QB Stephen Garcia is making his first start. South Carolina’s No. 3 defense will slow down LSU RB Charles Scott and force the Tiger quarterbacks to beat them. Ladies and gentlemen, here is this week’s Upset Special. South Carolina 13, LSU 10.
5. Miss. State (2-4) at Tennessee (2-4): This should be riveting. Mississippi State’s offense is ranked 103 (300.67 ypg) while Tennessee’s offense is ranked 104 (299.50 ypg). The Bulldogs are coming off a pretty good win over Vanderbilt while Tennessee and coach Phillip Fulmer need something, anything, to keep the wolves at bay for another week. The Vols survive and the anticipation begins to build for next week’s visit from No. 2 Alabama. Tennessee 14, Miss. State 10.
6. Arkansas (3-3) at Kentucky (4-2): Arkansas beat one team (Auburn) with a bad offense last week and will face another today in Kentucky, which has scored more than 20 points only once (Louisville, 27-2) against a Division I-A opponent this season. Kentucky got beat by special teams play last week against South Carolina. The Wildcats won’t make that mistake again. Kentucky 17, Arkansas 14.
7. Miami (3-3) at Duke (3-2): Miami just finished a bad three-game home stretch, losing to Florida State (41-39) and North Carolina (28-24) while having to fight UCF to survive 20-14. Duke has had a week off to recover from the 27-0 loss at Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils, for all their problems, have played Miami tough the past two seasons. They’ll do it again in Durham but this time coach David Cutcliffe gets his first high-profile win at Duke. Duke 21, Miami 17.
8. Wake Forest (4-1) at Maryland (4-2): For a 4-1 team, Wake Forest is having a difficult time running the football. The Deacons are 110th nationally (99.0 ypg) on the ground. But the Deacons have compensated with the short passing game of Riley Skinner, who played his best game of the season (186 pass, 74 run) against Clemson. Maryland has beaten Wake Forest in seven of their last nine meetings. Not this time. Wake Forest 17, Maryland 16.
9. North Carolina (5-1) at Virginia (3-3): North Carolina has not won in Charlottesville since 1981 and Saturday the Tar Heels will travel to Mr. Jefferson’s university without their best offensive weapon. Brandon Tate is college football’s all-time leader in combined kickoff and punt return yards. The senior tore up his knee against Notre Dame so his college career is over. Virginia has won two straight since a 1-3 start behind RB Cedric Peerman (173 yards rushing against East Carolina). The Tar Heels win a squeaker because of defense. North Carolina 20, Virginia 17.
10. Missouri (5-1) at Texas (6-0): The best time to play Texas is the week before or the week after Oklahoma. The Longhorns and QB Colt McCoy were great last week in beating Oklahoma (45-35) but now they will have to play just as well to beat Missouri and Chase Daniel, a Texas native who is looking forward to his homecoming. Daniel struggled last week with three interceptions in the second half in a loss to Oklahoma State. I don’t see him playing poorly two weeks in a row. Missouri 35, Texas 30.
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Georgia Tech needs to start fast against wounded Clemson
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the weekend:
1. What kind of team will Georgia Tech face Saturday at Clemson? There is no question that the Clemson players are going to rally around interim coach Dabo Swinney and try to find a way to salvage this season. Clemson’s excitement level at the beginning of this game will be very high. That makes it doubly important for Georgia Tech to get off to a fast start in Death Valley. If the Yellow Jackets can get up early, it will be hard for Clemson to maintain that enthusiasm. But if Clemson hangs around and has some success against the Georgia Tech defense, its confidence will grow. If Georgia Tech wins the toss, the Yellow Jackets should take the ball and go to work on offense. The point is that it’s hard to get ready for the Georgia Tech offense on a normal week. This has not been a normal week at Clemson.
2. Will Georgia look past Vanderbilt?Intentionally? No. Coach Mark Richt and the Georgia players are saying all the right things this week. Yes, they respect Vanderbilt, the team that was 5-0 before losing a tough game at Mississippi State last week. Yes, they understand that Vanderbilt is a well- coached team that usually doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Before last week, when Vanderbilt had 10 penalties, the Commodores led the nation in fewest penalties with 16 in five games. Yes, they beat Auburn and even if the Tigers’ offense is really bad, it’s still Auburn. I just think it’s going to be hard for the Bulldogs not to think about next week’s trip to LSU and the showdown with Florida the following week in Jacksonville. These guys are human. If the Georgia defense can force a few turnovers against a struggling Vanderbilt offense (No. 117 nationally), the Dawgs will be fine. But if Georgia comes out flat, it could be a four-quarter game.
3. Has the LSU defense been exposed? Despite some significant losses in the secondary (CB Chevis Jackson, SS Craig Stelz) plus Outland Trophy winner Glenn Dorsey at DT, the Tigers were expected to have one of the best defenses in the country. But LSU’s defense was shredded last week (265 yards rushing) by Florida and now folks are taking a second look. LSU is No. 52 nationally in scoring defense (22.4 ppg). Both Auburn and Mississippi State, two of the worst offenses in the country, moved the ball pretty effectively against LSU. South Carolina doesn’t have as many weapons as Florida. It’s not even close. But QB Stephen Garcia is going to get his first start after looking good in the fourth quarter against Kentucky, which does have a good defense. Wide receiver Kenny McKinley (of Mableton) is now back from a hamstring problem and South Carolina’s offense is much better when he’s on the field.
4. Could Tennessee-Mississippi State be another 3-2 game? Tennessee is No. 108 nationally in scoring offense (17.33 ppg). Mississippi State is No. 113 (16.33 ppg). This has a chance to be one of the ugliest games since Auburn’s 3-2 win over Mississippi State on Sept. 13. Mississippi State held Vanderbilt to only 107 yards of total offense last week. Tennessee’s offensive line, which has struggled since defenses have loaded up to stop the run, needs to have a good game or a bad season on Rocky Top just might get worse.
5. Does Alabama need an impressive win against Ole Miss?: Nick Saban would jump me just for asking the question. But here is something to ponder. The Crimson Tide elevated itself to No. 2 with a very impressive win at Georgia on Sept. 27. Then came a difficult 17-14 win over Kentucky. During Alabama’s off week Texas jumped over the Tide to No. 1 after a 45-35 win over previously-No. 1 Oklahoma. My instincts tell me that Alabama is in a great position if it keeps winning. The odds are against Texas running the table. But the voting in these polls i a tricky thing, especially with Penn State and Joe Paterno lurking at No. 3. I’m just saying that it wouldn’t hurt Alabama to have another dominating performance about right now to reinforce its position.
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Clemson would be smart to hire Bobby Johnson
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Nobody asked me but:
1. Clemson would be smart to hire Bobby Johnson: Given the turmoil that Clemson has been through the talent base that is already there, the school now needs a steady hand from a man who is also a great football coach. If you ask the coaches in the SEC they will tell you that week in and week out that Vanderbilt’s Bobby Johnson does more with his talent than anybody in the league. His teams play smart football and do not make a lot of mistakes. His teams tend to play very tough early in the season but run into problems when injuries start to kick in. Depth will always be a problem at Vanderbilt. Johnson is a Clemson grad and spent a huge portion of his career recruiting the state for Furman. But be warned, Clemson. Getting Johnson will not be a slam dunk. Since athletics at Vanderbilt now comes under the umbrella of the entire university budget, the school can use all of its resources to keep Johnson. From an educational standpoint, the exposure given the university through competitive football has been priceless. Vanderbilt will make it difficult for Johnson to leave.
2. Somebody is going to hire Will Muschamp: If Clemson can’t get Johnson or wants to go the assistant route, I’m suggesting that Will Muschamp is ready. Muschamp, who played for Ray Goff at Georgia, went to Texas from Auburn because he felt it would give him a better opportunity to be a head coach. He will be proved right at the end of this season. Statistically, the Texas defense is No. 40 in total defense (319 ypg) and but is No. 18 in scoring defense (15.3 ppg). But the most important thing Muschamp has brought to Texas is fire and attitude. A lot of schools want a young, aggressive head coach who learned a lot of his football from Nick Saban. Somebody is going to hire Muschamp this year. Schools have been looking for the next Bob Stoops or Mark Richt. Muschamp is the guy.
3. The Bowden coaching tree has been significantly pruned: What if I told you two years ago that in the middle of 2008 there would only be one member of the Bowden family still coaching and that his name would be Bobby? It just goes to show you how tough a profession it is and what a survivor Bobby Bowden is. By the way, Bowden turns 79 years old on Nov. 8. How’s this for irony? Both Tommy (Clemson) and Terry (Auburn) left their schools in the middle of the season almost 10 years apart.
4. Tuberville is in a no-win situation with Barrett Trotter: As bad as this season has been for Auburn, it’s worth noting that the Tigers are 4-3 with five games left to play. Coach Tommy Tuberville says that in an effort to improve his struggling offense nothing is off the table, including taking the redshirt off true freshman quarterback Barrett Trotter. It’s a no-win situation. If you take the redshirt off the kid and nothing improves, the fans are going to rip him. If he does nothing and the offense is still awful, the fans will rip him. My thoughts? Unless it is clear in practice that Trotter is significantly better and gives Auburn a chance to win, you leave the redshirt on. Of course that’s easy for me to say. My job’s not on the line.
5. The quarterback wasn’t the problem at Clemson: I’ll grant you that Cullen Harper was not playing well this season, especially for a preseason ACC player of the year pick. Harper had 27 touchdown passes and only six interceptions last season. But Harper also played behind a veteran offensive line a year ago. It’s hard for a quarterback to be sharp and confident when he is always under pressure. Maybe the Clemson team rallies behind new starter Willy Korn and the coaching staff that is now minus Tommy Bowden and OC Rob Spence. But Harper wasn’t the problem with the offense. It was the inability to run the ball with a patchwork offensive line that started the train wreck that ended in Bowden’s resignation on Monday.
BONUS PICK
I still believe the SEC is better than the Big 12: I caught a bunch of grief last week when I claimed that the SEC was better than the Big 12. The argument against me was that there are so many good quarterbacks in the Big 12 that by definition that league had to be better. I argued that when it comes down to big games, the team with the best defense usually wins. Think about this: In this week’s NCAA statistics 10 of the SEC’s 12 teams are ranked in the top 39 of total defense. The two worst defenses in the SEC are Ole Miss (No. 53) and Arkansas (No. 59). The Big 12 has only two defenses in the Top 40—Oklahoma (No. 23) and Texas (No. 40). The SEC may not play sexy football, but it has won the last two national championships.
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Bowden is out. Are Tuberville and Fulmer far behind?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Tommy Bowden stepped down at Clemson yesterday because he knew that he had lost the support of the majority of his fan base. And I know what you are thinking this morning: Are Phillip Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville far behind?
I’m not here today to say that Bowden, Fulmer, and Tuberville absolutely, positively should be in their current jobs next season. All three head men have made significant mistakes and their teams have not looked well-coached this season. In fact, their teams have looked poorly coached.
But to all three schools and their fans I simply offer these words of caution: Be careful what you wish for because the wrong decision here can put you into the football wilderness for a very long time.
There is something going on in all three cases that transcends the number of football games the coach has won. For lack of a better term I call it Coaching Fatigue. In short, I think we have gotten to the point where it is irrelevant whether or not these men are good coaches.
There are a certain number of fans who simply want something different. After 10 years of Bowden and Tuberville and 16 years of Fulmer, some fans want change for the sake of change. They want something fresh and new. They are convinced that the next Nick Saban waiting by the phone.
And they may be right. Sometimes change is the way to go. Jim Donnan had won 40 games and four bowls in five years at Georgia but he struggled against the Bulldogs’ top rivals. Mark Richt came in and Georgia has won two SEC championships and began this season ranked No. 1.
But other schools struggle with change. Alabama had a decade of turbulence between the departure of Gene Stallings and the arrival of Nick Saban. Nebraska fired Frank Solich after a nine-win season because they perceived the program was falling behind Texas and Oklahoma. The Cornhuskers’ once proud program is in now in shambles.
But in this ultra competitive environment, you better have a pretty clear idea where you are going if you decide to change. Clemson has not won an ACC championship since 1991 and gave Bowden 10 years and paid him well. I said before the season that if Bowden did not win an ACC championship with this collection of players, it could fairly be asked if he would ever win one. Clemson did not look like an inspired team to me. Alabama smacked Clemson in the mouth on Aug. 30 and the Tigers did not fight back. They looked listless last Thursday at Wake Forest. Bowden was clearly having a tough time reaching his players.
Fulmer is facing some of this. Tennessee was picked to finish third in the SEC East and that’s where the Vols may end up. But as a staff, particularly on the offensive side, Tennessee has really underachieved. And after 17 years there are Tennessee fans who believe they see the program sliding and simply want a change. But I will say this: For all of the great tradition and support at Tennessee, it is a very difficult job because the staff has to recruit nationally. For all of Fulmer’s critics, the fact remains that Fulmer has won 100 more games than he has lost at Tennessee. If he leaves after this season, his average record will be about 9-3. But he has also gone 10 years without winning an SEC championship and his primary rivals, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, are getting better each year.
Tuberville has had a horrible year. The Tony Franklin saga has opened up a can of worms and brought his judgment into question. Tuberville has made a lot of mistakes this season as a head coach. There is no way to spin that. But here is the question I would ask Auburn fans who want him gone: As bad as this season is and as frustrated as you are, are you ready to start over, knowing what Saban is doing in Tuscaloosa? Tuberville is still the guy who has beaten Alabama six straight times.
Spike Dykes, the old Texas Tech coach, once said that no matter how good a coach is, he loses about 10 percent of his support every year he is at a school. By that measure, the meter has run out on all three of these coaches.
But remember this: In football, as well as in politics, not all change is good. It could be that change is what is needed at Auburn and Tennessee because the support has eroded and cannot be rebuilt. But the administration at those schools had better get it right. It can get worse. Just ask Nebraska.
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Dawgs won’t beat Florida, LSU unless they fix penalty problem
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
For the second time this year (Sept. 27 was the first), we’ve had a “Shakeout Saturday” that turned the national championship race upside down. And to think, the first BCS standings of the season don’t come out until Sunday!
Here are just five things we learned over the weekend:
1. Georgia won’t beat LSU or Florida unless it fixes penalty problem: I can’t prove it but I believe Georgia’s penalty problems are making it tough for the pollsters to show them a lot of love. Let’s look at the facts. Statistically, Georgia dominated Saturday’s game with Tennessee. But mistakes and penalties allowed Tennessee, a team that is really struggling, to stay close. Georgia had 11 penalties in this game and now leads the nation with 63 in six games. I think the pollsters are looking at Georgia as a good team but not a great team because it makes too many mistakes and can’t put a team away. Really good teams make statements when they play. Florida, for example, made an emphatic statement Saturday night when it beat LSU. Georgia will not be able to have that statement game until it cuts down on the penalties and other mental errors. And frankly, it really doesn’t matter what the pollsters think about Georgia because the Bulldogs are not going to beat LSU or Florida if they don’t get this corrected.
2. Alabama will get its chance to be No. 1: I know Crimson Tide fans are mad today because Texas jumped over them in the polls after that impressive 45-35 win over Oklahoma which, for my money, may be the Longhorns’ biggest regular-season win the Mack Brown era. But sit tight, Bama faithful. Keep winning and you’ll get there. Why? Look at the rest of the Texas schedule starting this Saturday at home against a Missouri (5-1) team that now has its backs to the wall. No. 8 Oklahoma State (6-0), the team that beat Missouri, comes to Austin the following week. On Nov. 1 Texas goes to No. 7 Texas Tech (6-0). If the Longhorns survive that three-game gauntlet then there is a trap game at No. 16 Kansas on Nov. 15. And if Texas gets through all that undefeated it will probably have t play Missouri again in the Big 12 championship. It’s hard to see the ‘Horns going through that undefeated.
3. Florida found its identity Saturday night: If your team plays Florida in the coming weeks, what happened Saturday night at The Swamp should concern you. Until the 51-21 win over LSU, Florida was just a collection of very good players who couldn’t figure out what everybody was supposed to do. Now they know. In the final quarter of the Oct. 4 game with Arkansas Florida finally started using quarterback Tim Tebow not as their primary weapon, but as the man who can distribute the ball to a variety of playmakers that nobody can catch. Florida, my friends, ran for 265 yards against the best defensive line in the country (even though Ricky Jean-Francois was out with an injury). Florida’s identity from this point forward will be as a team with a big play offense with a defense that is getting better each week. The Gators were scary good Saturday night.
4. You’ve got to have a QB to win on the road—or anywhere, for that matter: Tennessee, LSU, and Clemson all lost on the road during the weekend. What do they all have in common? All are struggling with quarterback play. When you go on the road the quarterback has to manage the game against a hostile crowd and needs to make enough plays to give you a chance to win. Auburn lost at home to a bad Arkansas team Auburn but the problem was the same—quarterback. Tennessee, and LSU really don’t have that many options. Clemson is going to go with redshirt freshman Willy Korn against Georgia Tech after watching Cullen Harper struggle in the first half of the season. Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville is talking about taking a redshirt off freshman Barrett Trotter because things have gotten so bad. The game has evolved to the point where you can’t be average at the quarterback position and get by any more. The defenses are just too good. And while we’re on the subject: Why are there so many great quarterbacks in the Big 12 and a dearth of top level quarterbacks in the SEC? I don’t know the answer. I’m asking.
5. Defense gives South Carolina a shot at LSU: The headlines in Gamecock Country this week will be dominated by the fact that Stephen Garcia, the star-crossed quarterback, will finally get his first start for head coach Steve Spurrier. But the thing that gives South Carolina a shot in Saturday’s game with LSU is a defense that is ranked No. 3 in the nation (240.86 yards per game). Kentucky converted only one of 16 third down attempts in Saturday’s 24-17 win by South Carolina. Florida committed everything it had on defense to making sure that LSU running back Charles Scott did not beat them. Scott, the league’s leading rusher, had only 35 yards on 12 carries. Expect South Carolina to do the same and put QB Jarrett Lee into long yardage situations. Florida did that and made Lee look like a freshman quarterback again.
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Dawgs win, but it won’t be easy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Auburn lost to Vanderbilt (14-13) because the offense against lost its way and on Wednesday Tony Franklin, who is in charge of said offense, lost this job.
Ole Miss lost to South Carolina (31-24) because the Rebels couldn’t handle the success of beating Florida the week before and because The Head Ball Coach of the Gamecocks may be starting to figure some things out on offense.
Maryland lost to Virginia (31-0) because…Well, I don’t know why Maryland lost to Virginia the week after beating Clemson in Death Valley. The game made no sense.
Wisconsin had the lead on Ohio State late and probably didn’t think a freshman quarterback could drive the field on them to win the game. Wrong. Terrelle Pryor did it and the Badgers saw their 16-game home winning streak snapped 20-17.
There are at least three games in that list that could have easily gone the other way but your humble prognosticator was on the other side and finished with a record of 6-4 last week. That gives us a reasonable record of 43-17 after six weeks.
Thanks to the soap opera at Auburn, what was already going to be a great weekend of college football has even more drama. So let’s just wade in and begin yet another edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Tennessee (2-3) at Georgia (4-1): Logically, this game should not be close. Nothing is working on the offensive side of the ball at Tennessee. The Volunteer fan base is restless, angry, and in some cases, resigned to a bad season. There are Tennessee fans who want the administration to pull the plug on Phillip Fulmer’s 17-year tenure right now. Georgia has had a week to rest and needs to get back on track. If Georgia believes that it is one of the elite teams in the country, the Bulldogs need to start making the case. The energy for this game is strange. Georgia’s fans should be jacked up because of what Tennessee did to them last year in Knoxville. Maybe that changes once the game starts. I just get the sense that Tennessee is so overdue to play a decent game that they will come to Athens and be able to take Georgia’s best shot. The Bulldogs win it, but not without a scare. Georgia 24, Tennessee 21.
2. Gardner-Webb (2-3) at Georgia Tech (4-1): This game is about one thing and one thing only. And that’s putting GW away as soon as possible without injury so that the preparations can begin for the trip to Clemson on Oct. 18. If that means that both Jaybo Shaw and Josh Nesbitt have to sit then so be it. Give Calvin Booker his shot because he’s earned it. Tech should be able to break a few big plays early and then give the starters the rest of the day off. Georgia Tech 45, Gardner-Webb 3.
3. LSU (4-0) at Florida (4-1): Five games into the season Florida still hasn’t put together a sharp performance from start to finish. Well, the Gators are going to need one on Saturday night if they are going to beat No. 4 LSU. LSU has had a week off and if Jarrett Lee continues to give the Tigers good play at quarterback, they are going to be hard to beat. But keep this in mind. LSU is planning to play both Lee and Andrew Hatch at quarterback. Why? Because Lee is young and he has never seen anything like the crowd that will be on top of him Saturday night at The Swamp. If Lee makes mistakes, the Gators might find a way to win. I just think LSU is too physical on both lines of scrimmage and that the Florida offensive line continues to have its problems. The Tigers will try to smack Florida in the mouth early the way Alabama did Georgia. But this game will be much closer. LSU 24, Florida 20.
4. Arkansas (2-3) at Auburn (4-2): It has been a pretty tough week at Auburn with the firing of offensive coordinator Tony Franklin and the fallout that has been hitting head coach Tommy Tuberville. Veteran coach Steve Ensminger, a former assistant at Georgia, will call the plays in what is sure to be a back to basics approach against Arkansas, which has the No. 107 rushing defense in the country (208.44 ypg). It will be ugly, you can count on that, but Auburn will find a way to win at home. Auburn 24, Arkansas 10.
5. South Carolina (4-2) at Kentucky (5-1): Kentucky proved that its defense was for real last week in holding Alabama to just one offensive touchdown in a 17-14 loss at Tuscaloosa. It was a tough loss but I think Kentucky gained some confidence from the game. Quarterback Chris Smelley played perhaps his best game at South Carolina last week when the Gamecocks won at Ole Miss 31-24. But Smelley has found it difficult to play consistently and will take his lumps at Lexington. Kentucky 17, South Carolina 14.
6. Vanderbilt (5-0) at Miss. State (1-4): Vanderbilt is 5-0 for the first time since 1943 and with a win would be 6-0 for the first time since 1928. Vanderbilt has never been 4-0 in the SEC and could do that with a win at Starkville. Vanderbilt continues to lead the nation in turnover margin (plus-9) and has only committed 16 penalties in five games. (Georgia, by contrast has 53 penalties in five games). As long as the Commodores don’t turn the ball over they will be fine in this game because Mississippi State is ranked 114th in scoring (16.2 ppg). Vanderbilt 20, Miss. State 7.
7. Notre Dame (4-1) at North Carolina (4-1): Notre Dame has won four games but three of those have come against teams with defenses ranked No. 91 or worse (Stanford, San Diego State, Purdue). The Tar Heels were pretty impressive last week in a 38-12 win over Connecticut and are starting to figure some things out. The ACC, which people were calling the worst conference in the world in early September, gets another chance to post a big non-conference win. The Tar Heels are 1-16 all time against Notre Dame. On Saturday they will double their win total against the Fighting Irish. North Carolina 31, Notre Dame 21.
8. Texas (5-0) vs. Oklahoma (5-0) in Dallas: It’s the biggest matchup of the weekend as No. 1 plays No. 5. Both have hot quarterbacks. Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford is completing 72.6 percent of his passes and is averaging 15.7 yards per completion. Colt McCoy of Texas has been beating teams with his arm and his feet, averaging 319.4 yards of total offense per game. The edge in this game goes to Oklahoma because of defense. Look for the OU defense to hit McCoy early and often in order to get him off rhythm. The Texas defense, under new DC Will Muschamp, is playing with a little more of an edge. But the Longhorns only have two interceptions on the season in 199 passing attempts against them.. Oklahoma 28, Texas 20.
9. Oklahoma State (5-0) at Missouri (5-0): Right now no quarterback in the country is playing better than Missouri’s Chase Daniel. Last week against Nebraska, Missouri had 462 total yards. Daniel had 412 of them and led the Tigers to scores on six of his first seven possessions before sitting out the rest of the game. Oklahoma State has scored 50 or more points in its last four games. Missouri seems destined to run the table and face Texas or Oklahoma on Dec. 6 for the Big 12 championship. This could be a wild one. Missouri 38, Oklahoma State 24.
10. Penn State (6-0) at Wisconsin (3-2): Wisconsin had Ohio State beat last week until the Buckeyes and Terrelle Pryor drove the length of the field and scored late. Now Wisconsin has a chance to salvage its season by knocking off the nation’s No. 6 team. Penn State has one quality win over Illinois (38-24) at home. The Nittany Lions play at Ohio State on Oct. 25. I say Penn State looks past the Badgers and gets upset on the road. Wisconsin 17, Penn State 16.
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Franklin firing raises a lot of questions about Tuberville, Auburn
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Tommy Tuberville said last night after practice that he fired offensive coordinator Tony Franklin on Wednesday simply for “a lack of production.” No argument here. Auburn was ranked 104th nationally in total offense and had scored 3, 14, and 13 points in its last three games. So there is no question that the new attack under spread offense guru Franklin was not producing.
Last Saturday Auburn took a 13-0 lead by simply lining up in two tight ends and running the ball. Then Vanderbilt made a couple of adjustments and Auburn went back to its spread attack. The Tigers did not score again and had only four yards rushing in the second half, losing 14-13. After the game, media reports showed a confused and frustrated Auburn team.
But the timing of the announcement raises many more questions than it answers and some of those questions go to the core of the Auburn football program. Here’s five of those burning questions as we head into one of the biggest weekends of the season:
1. Why fire Franklin less than 24 hours after giving him a vote of confidence?: On Sunday when I talked to Tuberville privately, he said there would not be any radical changes in the offense other than to further simplify things. On Tuesday at his press briefing he again stated that there would be no staffing changes and that, and I’m paraphrasing here, Tony Franklin was his guy and he was committed to the offense. Tuberville insisted last night that there was no incident and no additional source of conflict between the two men. But by Wednesday morning Tuberville had determined that Franklin had to go—right now.
2. Auburn had an open date coming up. Why not wait until then? As bad as the offense was, the Tigers probably could have muddled through and beaten Arkansas, whose defense is ranked 112th in scoring, giving up 38 points per game. Then Auburn had an open date before the trip to West Virginia on Thursday, Oct. 23. Why not wait until the off week and do it then? Something obviously changed between Tuberville’s press briefing on Tuesday and Wednesday when he met with the team about 4:30 p.m. to announce that Franklin had been released. If it wasn’t a personal conflict between Tuberville and Franklin, then what was the source of change?
3. Does this abrupt firing mean there is a larger problem within the Auburn program?: Teams can start dividing over several issues but usually it comes from one of two sources: One side of the ball doesn’t believe the other side is holding up their end of the deal. You’ll understand if the Auburn defense, ranked No. 7 nationally at 248.83 yards per game, was less than enamored with the performance of its offense, which was 104th in yards (309.27 ypg) and 103rd in scoring (18.67 points per game). It was also clear that the head coach wanted to see more of Kodi Burns at quarterback over Chris Todd, who Franklin clearly thought was the best to run his offense. If the coaching staff was split over the quarterback position, it’s a pretty good bet the team was as well. You have to wonder if some people from within the team or within the staff came to Tuberville and let him know there was something going on.
4. Does Tuberville have a trust issue here?: The Auburn fans are frustrated because the Tigers began the season as a Top 10 team and were excited by the new offense based on what they had seen in the win over Clemson in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. But for Tuberville to say that he was staying the course on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday only to fire Franklin on Wednesday left a lot of Auburn fans angry. They want some answers. They want to know if Tuberville simply made a bad decision to bring in the spread offense or was the bad decision to hire Franklin as the guy to implement it. The spread was a pretty radical departure from Auburn’s football philosophy under Tuberville and it’s clear that every phase of the offense—not just quarterback—was having adjustment problems. The offensive line, which was young last season but showed a lot of promise for 2008, kept making mistakes. Hugh Nall is one of the best offensive line coaches in the country but this offense asked the big guys to do a lot of new things. It clearly wasn’t working for anybody.
5. How does this impact recruiting and the future of this program?: When it’s Auburn, big decisions like this always have to be viewed in the context of what is going on in Tuscaloosa. And right now Nick Saban has quickly rebuilt the program and Alabama is now ranked No. 2. The way Saban and his staff are recruiting, it’s only going to get better for Alabama. In my conversations with Tuberville he was always candid about why he hired Franklin last December in order to install the spread offense. Tuberville was convinced that the offense would help him in recruiting. It is an offense, when run correctly, that players enjoy because it gives them a chance to put their athletic skills on display. It’s fun. Running between the tackles is not especially fun. He believed this offense would open some additional recruiting doors and, given what is happening at Alabama, Tuberville needed as many recruiting options as possible.
Tuberville said yesterday that he is still committed to the spread offense. He has to be. His 2009 recruiting class is basically done and the offensive guys were recruited to run the spread. But don’t you think this move would make some of those verbal commitments start having second thoughts?
Tommy Tuberville is a very good coach. In nine seasons at Auburn the Tigers have won or shared the Western Division title five times. He survived a coup attempt in 2003 and in 2004 went undefeated, won the SEC championship, and should have gotten a shot at the national championship. He has beaten Alabama, Auburn’s bitter rival, an unprecedented six straight times.
But it will take all of Tuberville’s skill, both coaching and politically, to get this thing out of the ditch. Part of the Auburn fan base sees this as an act of desperation by Tuberville to save himself. They believe that if Tuberville hitched his wagon to Franklin for the rest of the season, the two would ultimately have gone down together. That’s why Tuberville had to throw Franklin under the bus.
Others see Franklin’s firing as a bold, decisive act that could not wait because, as difficult as it was and as bad as it looks from a PR standpoint, it was the best thing for the program.
Tuberville’s task for the rest of this season is to make the case that the second point of view is the accurate one. He must also do this while winning enough games to keep his fan base from revolting. It’s a very tall order, but that’s why SEC coaches get paid the big bucks.
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Knowshon needs a big game against Tennessee
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Nobody asked me, but:
1. Knowshon needs a big game against Tennessee: We’re only halfway through the season but already you can see the Heisman Trophy story lines starting to form. The media is starting to fall in love with the Big 12 quarterbacks and that’s understandable because they, especially Chase Daniel of Missouri, are all playing lights out. Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno struggled against Alabama (34 yards on nine carries) but everybody is going to struggle to run against the Alabama defense this year. Georgia was off last week while the other guys were piling up big stats. Despite having a tender elbow, Moreno needs to shine against Tennessee on national television and get back into the minds of the Heisman voters. More importantly, a big day by Moreno gives Georgia the best chance to win.
2. Defenses have adjusted to Tebow: Last year’s 28-24 win by LSU over Florida in Baton Rouge was one of the most hard-hitting, intense football games that I have ever seen. I’m hoping that we’re going to see a similar one Saturday night when the two teams meet again in The Swamp. This is a huge game for Florida’s Tim Tebow, the Heisman Trophy winner, after his two crucial turnovers played such a big part in the 31-30 loss to Ole Miss at home two weeks ago. But I’m hearing from around the league that after watching Tebow dominate last season, defenses have made a couple of subtle adjustments so that the running lanes he used to find inside are no longer there. The good defenses, and LSU is certainly one of those, are going to force Tebow to give up the ball or take a pounding. I will be very interested to see Tebow’s final numbers on Saturday night.
3. Tommy Bowden really needs a win: I’m not prepared to say that Thursday night’s game with Wake Forest is the biggest of the Tommy Bowden era at Clemson, but it’s certainly in the top two. The Tigers (3-2, 1-1 ACC) have had almost two full weeks of soul searching after blowing a 17-9 lead and losing to Maryland at home 20-17 back on Sept. 27. Another loss doesn’t mathematically eliminate Clemson from the ACC championship game, but the Tigers would be 1-2 in the league with Georgia Tech (4-1), Boston College (4-1), and Florida State (4-1) coming up in the next four weeks. This team was the ACC’s best hope of a national championship contender. Guys like RB James Davis of Atlanta came back to school in order to make a run at a championship. What happens to this team if that dream disappears? That is why this is a monster game for Clemson.
4. I don’t understand the love affair with Southern Cal: Some of you brought this up to me more than a week ago. I tend to ignore the weekly inconsistencies of the polls because I believe things shake out about right over the course of a 12 or 13 game schedule. But I can’t understand why the Harris Poll, one of the two used in the BCS formula, has jumped Southern Cal back up to No. 8 ahead of Georgia, whose only loss is to No. 2 Alabama. Southern Cal lost to a team (Oregon State) that was a 25-point underdog. Here’s the problem. Have you looked at the rest of the USC schedule? The best team the Trojans play the rest of the way is probably Notre Dame (4-1) and the Irish have also benefitted by a weak schedule. Given that the SEC and the Big 12 are head and shoulders above the rest of the BCS conferences, I refuse to believe that a one-loss Southern Cal could finish ahead of a one-loss team from those leagues.
5. BYU will bump into a glass ceiling: BYU has a nice team. They are fun to watch and Max Hall is a really good quarterback. But the Cougars, even if they go undefeated, are not going to play in the BCS championship game. Their two wins against BCS competition are Washington (0-5) and UCLA (2-3). Unless TCU (5-1) gets back into the Top 25, BYU will only play one ranked team this entire season, that coming in the final game with No. 13 Utah (6-0). BYU and Utah and No. 15 Boise State (4-0) are all in good position to finish in the Top 12 and earn an at-large spot in a BCS game. All three of those teams are good enough to hold their own should they get chosen for a BCS game. But let’s not get carried away and start putting one of those teams in the national championship game. I heard enough that talk about Hawaii. And you saw how that turned out.
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SEC vs. Big 12? The difference is defense
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
• Ole Miss, picked to finish no better than fourth in the SEC West, beats No. 4 Florida in The Swamp, 31-30.
• Vanderbilt, which has not been to a bowl in 25 years, beats Auburn, ranked in the Top 10 earlier in the season, 14-13 in Nashville.
• Alabama, the No. 2 team in the nation, has to fight just to get by Kentucky 17-14 in Tuscaloosa.
• Georgia, which started the season No. 1, gets blasted 31-3 in the first half at home by Alabama on the way to a 41-30 loss.
Meanwhile, last Saturday:
Missouri beats Nebraska (52-17), Texas beats Colorado (38-14), Oklahoma beats Baylor (49-17), and Texas Tech beats Kansas State (58-28). This week the Big 12 has four of the top seven teams in the country in the AP Poll.
Therefore, the Big 12 is a stronger conference than the SEC.
Huh?
Let me see if I’ve got this straight. Two weeks ago when the SEC had five of the nation’s Top 10 teams it was the best conference in the country. No argument. But now that those teams are getting into conference play and are beating each other up, goes the logic, the SEC has been exposed as not being so good. Those Big 12 teams are rolling up those big numbers on offense so they have to be better, right?
Wrong.
This is the mistake a lot of fans and a lot of the poll voters outside the South make. They equate high-scoring football with quality football. That ain’t the way it works.
Don’t get me wrong. Those Big 12 teams are really, really good. In fact, I expect the SEC champion to be playing one of them in the BCS title game come Jan. 8 (Sorry, Penn State fans. It ain’t gonna happen. If it comes down to it, you’ll pay for the sins of Ohio State the past two years).
There is a reason that the SEC has won the last two national championships and, quite frankly, made it look easy in the BCS title game. It’s called defense.
There are more really good defenses in the SEC than in any league in the country. That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact. Three of the nation’s top five teams in scoring defense (No. 1 Kentucky, No. 2 Auburn, No. 4 Florida) and seven of the top 19 teams in total defense reside in the SEC. There is only one Big 12 team in the top 20 in total defense (No. 11 Oklahoma). The highest rated defense after that is Texas at No. 28.
Granted, this is a close call because the quarterback play in the Big 12 is beyond great. I can’t recall the last time I saw a conference so deep in big-time quarterbacks with Sam Bradford (Oklahoma), Colt McCoy (Texas), Chase Daniel (Missouri), Graham Harrell (Texas Tech) and Todd Reesing (Kansas).
But on Sunday and Monday people were talking about Big 12 superiority like it was a slam dunk. It’s not.
Aside from defense, here’s the difference in my mind. If you want to compare the top half of the Big 12 (Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas are all in the Top 17) against the top half of the SEC (Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, Vanderbilt, Auburn are all in the Top 20), that’s fine.
But look at the bottom half of both leagues. Kansas State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado, Baylor, and Texas A&M all lost their Big 12 openers. Virginia Tech went to Nebraska and won 35-30. Iowa State lost to a terrible Iowa team 17-5. Texas A&M lost to Arkansas State at home (18-14).
In the second division of the SEC, South Carolina (4-2) played Georgia to a 14-7 game when the Bulldogs were ranked No. 2 and last week went on the road to beat Ole Miss. Kentucky (4-1) went on the road and played No. 2 Alabama to a three-point game. Ole Miss (3-3) went to Florida and gave Urban Meyer only his second loss in The Swamp. Mississippi State lost a defensive battle with Auburn (3-2). Tennessee (2-3) has struggled on offense but there is only one truly bad team and that’s Arkansas (2-3). But even the Hogs hung tough with Florida before the Gators got a couple of late score on Saturday to win 38-7.
Bottom line: The difference in the leagues is defense and how tough it is to win on the road. I don’t think anybody in the Big 12 is afraid to play at Iowa State or Texas A&M, the bottom two teams in that conference. Going to Starkville or Knoxville is a different story.
If I’m wrong, tell me why. If you can look at these two conferences top to bottom, which is how you should judge a conference, and tell me that the Big 12’s better I would love to hear your argument.
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Will Tennessee make its last stand at Georgia?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. Georgia had better be ready for Tennessee: Call me crazy, and I’m sure a lot of you will, because what I am about say is just not logical. But I just get this sense that Tennessee is going to come to Athens and play well on Saturday. Yes, the Tennessee offense was bad again in a 13-9 win over Northern Illinois on Saturday night. Nick Stephens started and will probably be the quarterback from now on. He did throw a 52-yard touchdown pass to Denarius Moore but the offense had only nine first downs and converted only 3 of 13 first down opportunities. The negative energy in Knoxville is thick. In fact, I’m going up there to give a speech today and I know I’m going to get a lot of questions about the future of Phillip Fulmer.
But the Tennessee defense is starting to get a little better, holding NIU to only 190 total yards. But the Tennessee defense has yet to face an really good offense (Florida shut its offense down after getting up 17-0). The defense should give the Vols a shot in most games. I could be wrong. Tennessee might come down here and get its doors blown off by a Georgia team that has had a week’s rest. Why do I feel that is not going to happen? Tennessee will come here as a desperate football team. Willl that be enough to keep it competitive?
2. Michael Johnson’s not blowing smoke: Young Johnson said that the only team that could beat Georgia Tech is Georgia Tech. It sounds like bulletin board material but let’s look at that. Georgia Tech beat a very sound Duke team 27-0 on Saturday . Trust me when I tell you that the game was not that close. Georgia Tech dominated the game in the first half and had only three points to show for it. But the Georgia Tech offense is just relentless. It just wears out opponents both physically and mentally. And Coach Paul Johnson showed yet again on Saturday that he will do whatever it takes to win. You want to put eight guys up there to stop the option? He’ll use a true freshman quarterback (Jaybo Shaw) to throw nine passes to Bay-Bay Thomas. But Georgia Tech has a chance to win every game it plays because Johnson has never had a defense this good to back up his offense.
3. Auburn has to go back to the drawing board—again: For two possessions against Vanderbilt Saturday night, Auburn was the Auburn of old. The Tigers lined up in a power formation and just blew the Commodores off the ball. But then Vanderbilt made a couple of adjustments and committed another defender to the run, and suddenly Auburn had no answers. Auburn only had four yards rushing in the second half. Now Vanderbilt has a good defense but only four yards? It’s a good thing for Tommy Tuberville’s team that they are playing Arkansas this week. Auburn has a good offensive line and good running backs and is very average, at best, at quarterback. The offense has to reflect that. Tuberville said that OC Tony Franklin is in charge of the offense and will be given a chance to fix it.
4. Somebody is going to try to hire Bobby Johnson: Vanderbilt plays in the toughest league in the country with a host of financial and academic obstacles that have to be overcome relative to the competition. But here the Commodores sit at 3-0 in the SEC and 5-0 overall. Now the toughest part of the schedule is still ahead but the fact is that Bobby Johnson has done one of his best coaching jobs ever in the first half of this season. A year ago Vanderbilt had Georgia beat and Tennessee beat before letting them slip off the hook in the fourth quarter. Johnson consistently gets as much out of his available talent as any coach in the country. His staff takes a back seat to no other staff in the country. I know Vanderbilt would hate to lose Johnson but you have to figure his name will come up for a high-profile opening.
5. Alabama is human: Yes, Alabama played a sloppy game against Kentucky and managed to win 17-14. If not for Mike Hartline’s fumble deep in Kentucky territory, which Alabama turned into a touchdown, the Crimson Tide could have been beaten at home. But they didn’t lose and are 6-0 heading into an open date this week. But Alabama’s opponents shouldn’t read too much into the near miss against the Wildcats. Alabama still ran for 282 yards (218 by Glen Coffee) against a pretty good defense. The penalties (10) and turnovers (3) just killed the Tide. Kentucky is going to make a bunch of teams struggle. Alabama coach Nick Saban has been riding his team pretty hard but now they get an off week before hosting Ole Miss on Oct. 18. He’ll give them a little love, let them heal up, and start cracking the whip against next week. He’ll remind them that Ole Miss went to The Swamp and won. That is all he’ll need to do.
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The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Ouch.
We were 6-4 last week and some of those losses really hurt.
I wasn’t surprised that Alabama beat Georgia. I was very surprised that the Crimson Tide led 31-0 at halftime. Double ouch if you picked the Bulldogs at home.
The other losses were surprises.
Who knew that Florida was going to turn it over three times (two by Tim Tebow) and lose to Ole Miss 31-30 in The Swamp?
Who knew that Navy was going to force Wake Forest, one of the best schools in the country when it comes to turnover margin, into six turnovers?
Who knew that North Carolina could go to Miami without its starting quarterback (T.J. Yates of Marietta) and still find a way to win?
Who knew that four of the top nine and nine out of the Top 25 were going to lose?
That’s the great thing about college football. You don’t know. Something totally unpredictable is going to happen on Saturday and I can’t wait to see what it will be. That is why your humble prognosticator has been 6-4 the past two weeks and is 37-13 after five weeks. Still, we press on and are proud to bring you another award-winning edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Duke (3-1) at Georgia Tech (3-1): Back in the summer, we didn’t give this game much thought. Now it is a very significant outing for both teams. Duke, whose only loss is to 5-0 Northwestern, is playing with some confidence under new coach David Cutcliffe. But the Blue Devils, who can move the football with QB Thaddeus Lewis and WR Eron Riley (of Savannah), have not seen a defensive front like Georgia Tech’s. And we might also mention that this is Duke’s first road game of the season. The Blue Devils have lost 16 straight ACC road games dating back to a 2003 win at North Carolina. That barely qualifies as a road game because it’s about a 15-minute bus ride to Chapel Hill. Duke has not won in Atlanta since 1994.
If Georgia Tech doesn’t turn the ball over the Yellow Jackets should be in pretty good shape for this one. But if QB Jaybo Shaw, who starts while Josh Nesbitt nurses a bad hamstring, struggles and the ball goes on the ground, it could go down to the wire. Georgia Tech 28, Duke 17.
2. Kentucky (4-0) at Alabama (5-0): The Crimson Tide is coming off a pretty severe beat down of Georgia in Athens. Coach Nick Saban has warned, until he is Crimson in his face, about complacency, especially against a Kentucky defense that allows only 5.5 points per game. The Kentucky defense, led by LB Braxton Kelley of LaGrange and Trevard Lindley of Hiram, is very good but honesty compels us to mention that the Wildcats haven’t really been tested in their non-conference schedule. Alabama plays big boy football and if the Tide protects QB John Parker Wilson, it should roll for most of the afternoon. Alabama 24, Kentucky 7.
3. Auburn (4-0) at Vanderbilt (4-0): The Commodores have a lot of play for. They haven’t been 5-0 since 1943. ESPN’s College Game Day is in Nashville for the first time. A win would make Vanderbilt 3-0 in the SEC and put the ‘Dores to within one victory of qualifying for their first bowl game since 1982. It’s tempting to take Bobby Johnson’s team at home because they are so fundamentally sound. But the Auburn defense is very, very good and the offense, we’re told, is going to get back to basics on Saturday. It will probably be an ugly game, as most of them have been for Auburn this season. Tommy Tuberville specializes in winning ugly games. Auburn 17, Vanderbilt 10.
4. Florida (3-1) at Arkansas (2-2): The Gators may still be in a state of shock after losing to Ole Miss at home last season. But they have to snap out of it and travel to Fayetteville. Arkansas is not very good on defense, having given up 101 points (to No. 2 Alabama and No. 5 Texas) in its past two games. Florida needs to get its ducks in a row because No. 3 LSU comes to The Swamp on Oct. 11. Look for Urban Meyer to take out his frustrations on Bobby Petrino, who probably won’t get a lot of sympathy in this part of the world as the Hogs lost their third straight. Florida 45, Arkansas 10.
5. South Carolina (3-2) at Ole Miss (3-2): The Rebels now have to show they can come back and focus after one of the biggest wins in recent years. Houston Nutt has his first signature win as the head coach at Ole Miss and wants to build on it by beating a South Carolina team that is getting a little desperate. The Gamecocks have the nation’s No. 1 defense but, as coach Steve Spurrier readily admits, the offense is not keeping up their end of the deal. Chris Smelley will start at quarterback but look for Spurrier to give a long look to redshirt freshman QB Stephen Garcia. Garcia can move to avoid the rush, which is something both South Carolina quarterbacks will have to do. I get the feeling this one will be close. Ole Miss 21, South Carolina 20.
6. Northern Illinois (2-2) at Tennessee (1-3): Things are starting to get pretty ugly in Big Orange Country. I would say that Tennessee’s offense is shooting itself in the foot, but I’m not sure this crowd could hit its own foot. Coach Phillip Fulmer will announce his starting quarterback at some point on Friday but in my mind he has no choice but to give Nick Stephens a shot and hope for the best against the Huskies. You just can’t ask Jonathan Crompton to take the first snap in this game at home because, like it or not, the crowd will boo and the game will begin a negative note. Tennessee must find some answers before next week’s trip to Georgia. The Vols will win, but will they be ugly doing it? Tennessee 28, Northern Illinois 14.
7. Florida State (3-1) at Miami (2-2): Remember when this used to be the biggest game on the planet Earth? Now it barely moves the needle on the excitement meter. Both of these teams need a win to prove that their programs are finally headed in the right direction. Florida State found a running game in beating Colorado while Miami struggled in the second half and lost to North Carolina. This will be a hard fought game because the kids know each other so well. I just think Florida State comes up with one more play in the fourth quarter. Florida State 17, Miami 14.
8. Maryland (4-1) at Virginia (1-3): Remember when Maryland got beat by Middle Tennessee State and everybody wrote the Terps off? Now Ralph Friedgen’s troops have beaten California at home, Clemson on the road and are starting to get a little confidence. Virginia, meanwhile, was tied with Duke 3-3 at halftime last week and collapsed and lost 31-3. With Clemson struggling, the ACC Atlantic is wide open. Why not the Terps? Maryland 31, Virginia 10.
9. Ohio State (4-1) at Wisconsin (3-1): The Buckeyes feel like they are making some progress now that RB Beanie Wells is healthy and freshman QB Terrelle Pryor is starting to find his comfort zone. But it didn’t help coach Jim Tressel when Wisconsin blew a 19-0 halftime lead and lost at Michigan last week. The Badgers, who have won 16 straight home games at Camp Randall Stadium, will be very focused for this one. The loser pretty much knows that it is out of the Rose Bowl picture. Wisconsin has won 21 of its last 22 night games and the Badgers will win this one. Wisconsin 24, Ohio State 23.
10. Texas (4-0) at Colorado (3-1): A good time to play Texas is the week before the Longhorns go to Dallas to play Oklahoma. It will be hard to get the Texas players to focus on the Buffs with the No. 1 team in the nation waiting on deck. But Texas will be fine because Colt McCoy is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country and the defense is playing with an attitude under new DC Will Muschamp. McCoy has thrown for 14 touchdowns and run for four more. He has only thrown one interception in four games. The Texas defense has 14 sacks in its last two games. Texas 31, Colorado 10.
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Will Tech need Nesbitt to beat Duke?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the weekend:
1. Will Georgia Tech need Josh Nesbitt to beat Duke?: Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson has announced that freshman Jaybo Shaw will start at quarterback against Duke on Saturday. Shaw can run the offense well and technically he is very sound. Shaw will get the ball to the right man at the right time. But if things get tight at Bobby Dodd Stadium will we see Josh Nesbitt, who suffered a pulled hamstring on Sept. 20, come off the bench to help win the game? With Nesbitt the Yellow Jackets have another home run hitter (along with Jonathan Dwyer) out of the option offense. And the home run is the thing that the improving Duke defense (No. 5 in the ACC at 16.3 ppg) fears the most in this game. With Gardner-Webb coming up next week, I’m sure coach Paul Johnson would love to get through this game and not have to use Nesbitt. Then he should be in good shape for the trip to Clemson on Oct. 18.
2. Can Nick Stephens make any difference in the Tennessee offense? There is clearly a lack of communication between Tennessee quarterback Jonathan Crompton and new offensive coordinator Dave Clawson. Either Clawson is not coaching him up or Crompton is not listening. Based on what I have seen in four games, it’s probably both. Crompton continues to make fundamental mistakes that a fourth-year quarterback should not make. So Crompton needs to sit down and let Stephens, a redshirt sophomore from Flower Mound, Tex., take a shot. Tennessee can afford to shake things up against a Northern Illinois team that will be without its starting quarterback, Chandler Harnish, who continues to be sidelined with a foot injury. If Stephens can’t get it done, at least Crompton has had the benefit of watching for a while and will feel a sense of urgency. Remember last season when some Tennessee fans were so critical of Erik Ainge? They sure miss him now. They also miss OC David Cutcliffe, who really knows how to coach quarterbacks from the neck up, which is where Crompton’s issues appear to be.
3. What will the Auburn offense look like?: Coach Tommy Tuberville is stepping in and exerting some influence on the Auburn offense, which is struggling in the spread formation of new OC Tony Franklin. Tuberville reminded reporters this week that the Tigers are running “The Auburn offense, not Tony Franklin’s offense.” Translation: Auburn is going to go back to the power running attack using a fullback and a tight end. Tuberville realizes after five games that he just doesn’t have the personnel to do what Franklin wants to do and, quite honestly, the jury is still out on whether or not this offense will work against the faster, deeper defenses in the SEC. Auburn is going against a good defensive team in Vanderbilt and cannot afford turnovers. This offense also puts a lot on the quarterback and neither Chris Todd nor Kodi Burns is setting the woods on fire. It will be interesting to see what Auburn’s offense does against the Commodores.
4. Will Florida put a big number on Arkansas?: After losing to Ole Miss in The Swamp, Florida has dropped out of the Top 10. Tim Tebow has apologized to the world. Fans are questioning the play calling. The look on Urban Meyer’s face has gotten a little sterner, if such a thing is possible. In short, Arkansas has picked the wrong week to play the Gators. Arkansas has given up 101 points in its last two games against Alabama and Texas. And given all the weapons Florida has, the Gators could roll up a lot of points as well. Florida needs a boost to its psyche and the Arkansas defense is so bad that Meyer will have to substitute liberally just to hold the score down. I don’t think he’ll choose to do that. I think he and Gators take out their frustrations on the Hogs. It could be ugly.
5. Will Kenny McKinley go the distance against Ole Miss?: South Carolina has the nation’s No. 1 defense but the offense is 89th, averaging 21.4 points per game. A big part of the problem has been play at quarterback so expect Stephen Garcia to get significant snaps even if he doesn’t start. But the Gamecocks have also missed Kenny McKinley of Mableton, their big-play wide receiver. McKinley, who has a chance to be South Carolina’s all-time leading receiver, has been out for a month with a bad hamstring. Without McKinley, South Carolina has not been able to stretch opposing defenses. With 162 career catches, McKinley needs eight more plus 299 receiving yards to pass Sterling Sharpe on South Carolina’s all-time list. He has practiced the past two days and will suit up for the game in Oxford. He will play but will the hamstring allow him to go the distance?
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Nov. 1 still huge for Dawgs, Gators
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Nobody asked me but:
1. Nov. 1 could still mean everything for Dawgs, Gators: In the fallout from Georgia’s loss to Alabama and Florida’s loss to Ole Miss, I got a few e-mails from folks who said that some of the shine had between taken off the Nov. 1 game between the Bulldogs and Gators in Jacksonville.
Silly. Here’s why:
First of all, it’s Georgia-Florida in Jacksonville so by definition it’s a huge game.
Secondly, after what happened last year (Georgia rushing the end zone) I don’t believe either team or either fan base will come out flat.
Thirdly, and this is the most important thing. Everything could still be on the line when the two teams get to Jacksonville. Both have an SEC loss now but it is in the Western Division. So unless Tennessee magically gets better, first place in the SEC East will be at stake. A win probably won’t guarantee a spot in Atlanta but it sure will be the No. 1 tiebreaker. There is a tendency to put too much stock into one win or one loss at this point of the season. Remember that in 2006 Florida lost on the road to Auburn and came back to win the national championship. Remember that last season LSU lost on the day after Thanksgiving and ended up winning it all.
Bottom line: If you have tickets for Nov. 1 in Jacksonville, you had best keep them. Or send them to me.
2. I miss the old Florida State-Miami rivalry: I used to look forward to this game every year. It was must-see football. When you went to Florida State-Miami you knew that you were going to see two teams that left everything they had on that field. There was so much pride on those great teams. The play was always at an incredibly high level because nobody wanted to let their teammates down. And you never saw guys talking smack in this game. The players told me it was because the game was played so fast you didn’t have time to talk—only to react. We were lucky to see the Florida State-Miami game at its very best. I wonder if it will ever be like that again.
3. Alabama had better take the Kentucky game seriously: If Ole Miss can beat Florida in The Swamp, then Kentucky can beat Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The last time Alabama heard universal praise for a week, the Crimson Tide slopped their way to a 20-6 win over Tulane. Kentucky has been struggling a little on offense but the Wildcats are pretty good on defense leading the nation in allowing only 5.5 points per game. All it would take is a couple of Alabama mistakes on offense to give Kentucky some cheap points and a big dose of confidence. Last season, when the Wildcats beat No. 1 LSU at home, and took Florida and Tennessee to the limit, the program under Rich Brooks changed. Just consider this an early warning, Tide fans.
4. Frank Beamer deserves a lot of credit: I was among those who questioned the judgment of the Virginia Tech coach when he decided to redshirt quarterback Tyrod Taylor before the season. The Hokies needed both Taylor and Sean Glennon to win the ACC championship last year with a really good defense. The 2008 defense had to replace seven starters so I felt Virginia Tech was going to need every point it could get. To Beamer’s credit he changed his mind after a season-opening loss to East Carolina. He took the redshirt off Taylor and now the Hokies are 4-1 after winning at Nebraska (35-30) and have already beaten Georgia Tech and North Carolina in the ACC Coastal. Beamer deserves credit for changing his mind and acting. A lot of coaches refuse to change because they don’t want to admit they were wrong. Taylor, by the way, is 8-0 as a starting quarterback.
5. Vanderbilt can beat Auburn: The Commodores weren’t given much of a shot this season because they lost eight starters on the offense, including the entire offensive line. But, as always, Bobby Johnson’s teams are fundamentally sound. In four games this season (Miami of Ohio, South Carolina, Rice, Ole Miss) Vanderbilt has outscored its opponents 51-10 in the second half. Vanderbilt is last in the SEC in both total offense (282.8 ypg) and total defense (364.2 ypg) but makes up for it in other areas of the game. Vanderbilt is No. 1 in the SEC and in the nation in turnover margin (plus-9) as they have forced 14 and committed only five. They lead the conference and are third nationally in punt returns (22.5 avg.). Vanderbilt is second in the SEC with 11 quarterback sacks (Auburn has 12) for minus-74 yards. Vanderbilt has only 11 penalties in four games, the fewest in the conference. Georgia, by contrast, has 53 penalties in five games. Vanderbilt has made all seven of its field goal attempts this season and has scored on 16 out of 17 trips to the red zone (11 touchdowns). That is why Johnson’s teams are so hard to beat.
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