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Friday, October 24, 2008
The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
How bad have my picks been lately? Let us count the ways:
They are sinking faster than my 401-K and, based on yesterday’s statement, that is hard to do.
They are worse than Auburn’s tackling last night, which was horrible for an SEC defense.
They are dumber than the computer rankings in the BCS formula, which have Ohio State No. 5 and Southern Cal, the team that beat the Buckeyes 35-3, at No. 10. “How does that happen?” USC coach Pete Carroll rightly asks. “Nice system.”
But 5-5 is what happens when you miss on your three upset picks (South Carolina over LSU, Missouri over Texas, Duke over Miami) and have another pick (Wake Forest over Maryland) that suddenly can’t seem to score.
That puts us at 51-29 for the season and, given the competitiveness of these 10 games below, we could be in for another beating on Saturday. But you have to admit it is entertaining, which is why we press on with another edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Georgia (6-1) at LSU (5-1): I know that a team with two losses (LSU) got into the national championship game last season. I just don’t see it happening this season. Therefore, this will likely be an elimination game for two teams that began this season with an eye on the BCS championship. Georgia’s Mark Richt has been very good on the road (27-4 in opponent’s stadiums) because he usually has two things: A good quarterback and a good defense. He takes both of those to Baton Rouge Saturday afternoon. If given a little time, Matt Stafford and A.J. Green could have a big day. Georgia 24, LSU 21.
2. Virginia (4-3) at Georgia Tech (6-1): This is the first really big game of the Paul Johnson era. If Tech wins and Florida State beats Virginia Tech, the Yellow Jackets control their own destiny in the ACC Coastal. Virginia is a huge team that just blows people off the line of scrimmage for running back Cedric Peerman, who is playing very well. But Georgia Tech counters with what may be the best defensive line in college football. Defense wins big games and Georgia Tech will win this one. Georgia Tech 17, Virginia 10.
3. Alabama (7-0) at Tennessee (3-4): Alabama will be without the focal point of its defense, NT Terrence Cody. And if Tennessee can take advantage of that this could be a four-quarter game. Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer is 10-4-1 against Alabama over his career and he has never needed a win over the Crimson Tide as badly as he needs this one. I just get the sense that the offense will again let Tennessee down with untimely turnovers. Alabama 21, Tennessee 17.
4. Ole Miss (3-4) at Arkansas (3-4): Houston Nutt returns to Fayetteville, where he led the Hogs to a pair of SEC championship games before taking their $3 million and leaving town at the end of last season. It will be an emotional day on both sides but at the end of the day, Ole Miss wins because it has a pretty good SEC defense. Arkansas does not. Ole Miss 31, Arkansas 21.
5. Kentucky (5-2) at Florida (5-1): Florida will certainly be looking ahead to next week’s trip to Jacksonville to play Georgia. But it won’t matter because what little firepower that Kentucky offense had is now gone to injury. The Wildcats’ have lost their best receiver, Dicky Lyons, Jr., and their best running back, Derrick Locke, to injury. The UK defense is still for real but that group is beat up as well. Florida has beaten Kentucky 21 straight times. After Saturday it will be 22. Florida 31, Kentucky 7.
6. Duke (3-3) at Vanderbilt (5-2): It’s a big game for both teams as each believes it can get to a bowl this season. After a 5-0 start, Vanderbilt will be trying for the third straight week to get bowl eligible. Duke has hit a rough patch after a 3-1 start with losses to Georgia Tech (27-0) and Miami (49-31). Vanderbilt has the stronger defense and quarterback MacKenzi Adams played reasonably well last week at Georgia. Vanderbilt is undefeated at home and will stay that way. Vanderbilt 24, Duke 20.
7. Virginia Tech (5-2) at Florida State (5-1): A lot of eyes around the ACC will be watching this one. Florida State gets the edge because quarterback Christian Ponder, who rushed for 144 yards against Miami and threw for 254 yards against N.C. State, is getting better every week. The Florida State defense is ranked No. 3 in the country and will be asked to handle a Virginia Tech offense ranked 110. They should be able to do that. Florida State 24, Virginia Tech 14.
8. Boston College (5-1) at North Carolina (5-2): The Tar Heels lost a heartbreaker in overtime at Virginia last week and need a win to stay in the hunt in the ACC Coastal. A young but talented North Carolina defense has to find a way to contain BC quarterback Chris Crane who has thrown for 646 yards in his last two games. But Crane has also thrown nine interceptions. North Carolina also must find a way to score against a defense ranked No. 4 (251 ypg) in the nation. The Tar Heels get the edge at home. North Carolina 13, Boston College 10.
9. Penn State (8-0) at Ohio State (7-1): For all intents and purposes the Big Ten championship will be on the line at the Horseshoe in Columbus. Penn State has beaten eight opponents by an average of 33.6 points per game but has not faced a team that is ranked in the Top 25 of the BCS. That changes Saturday night at Ohio State, where the Nittany Lions have lost seven straight games. Penn State has also lost 10 straight road games to ranked opponents. Ohio State will feed running back Beanie Wells a bunch and wins an old-fashioned game in the trenches. Ohio State 17, Penn State 13.
10. Oklahoma State (7-0) at Texas (7-0): Texas plays its third big-time game in as many weeks and as long as QB Colt McCoy stays hot, the Longhorns are going to be just fine. McCoy is completing 82.1 percent of his passes this season and with him in command the Texas offense has been scary good. But Oklahoma State can throw a few weapons at you as well. The Cowboys are fifth in the nation in rushing offense (283.14 ypg) and their quarterback, Zac Robinson, is the nation’s third-most efficient passer (70.15 percent). Texas has a young secondary and could give up some yards. This will be another wild one. Texas 45, Oklahoma State 38.
