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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
What the BCS rankings should look like
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Okay, the BCS has spoken for the first time this season. But now it’s our turn. Like you, I have my own opinion about where the teams should be ranked based on performance and not on perception. So here is the first edition of the TB Top 10 for 2008. Included is a breakdown of the remaining schedule for each and their relative chances of getting to Miami on Jan. 8. Take a look at this and then give me your top 10. Then give me who you think WILL be in the BCS title game.
1. TEXAS (7-0)
Remaining schedule: After beating Oklahoma and Missouri the past two weeks, the Longhorns are halfway through a four-game gauntlet. Texas hosts No. 6 Oklahoma State this Saturday and travel to Texas Tech (7-0) on Nov. 1. There is a trap game at Kansas (5-2) on Nov. 15. Then there will be a rematch with Kansas or Missouri in the Big 12 championship game.
Bottom line:If quarterback Colt McCoy, who is completing an unheard of 82 percent of his passes this season, keeps playing like this nobody is going to beat Texas.
2. ALABAMA (7-0)
Remaining schedule: I don’t care what the records say, Saturday night’s trip to Tennessee will not be easy for the Crimson Tide, especially with NT Terrence Cody out of the lineup. The Nov. 8 trip to LSU will likely be for the SEC West title. Then Alabama would get Georgia or Florida in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6.
Bottom line: It concerns me that Alabama seems to sag after halftime. And if Cody can’t get back for the LSU game that could be a problem. Still, this is a hungry football team that has is playing with an edge. They just need to do it for four quarters to win it all.
3. PENN STATE (8-0)
Remaining schedule: Get by Saturday night’s visit to Ohio State, where the Nittany Lions have lost seven straight, and it’s a piece of cake. Only Iowa (5-3), Indiana (2-5), and Michigan State (6-2) remain. Of those three games only Iowa is on the road.
Bottom line: If Texas and Alabama are both 13-0 they get into the BCS championship and Penn State gets left out. But if either drops a game, the voters will not miss out on a chance to put Joe Paterno, 81, in the national championship game.
4. FLORIDA (5-1)
Remaining schedule: The trip to Jacksonville next week to play Georgia will be a war but if Florida survives the Gators should be 11-1 going into the SEC championship game on Dec. 6 against Alabama or LSU.
Bottom line: After watching Ole Miss take Alabama to the limit in Tuscaloosa, the Gators’ 31-30 loss to the Rebels should be viewed in a different light. They have a scary collection of fast players. If Florida finishes 12-1 and beats Alabama in Atlanta, the Gators should be considered the best one-loss team in the mix.
5. OKLAHOMA (6-1)
Remaining schedule: The Sooners should breeze through Kansas State, Nebraska, and Texas A&M the next three weeks. After a week off they finish with a home game against Texas Tech (7-0) and a road game with Oklahoma State (7-0).
Bottom line: If Oklahoma wins out and Texas stumbles once, the Sooners could be in the mix for the BCS title without winning the Big 12 conference. Now that would be fun.
6. GEORGIA (6-1)
Remaining schedule: The Bulldogs’ schedule is as tough as it gets starting with Saturday’s trip to LSU (5-1). Even if it wins in Baton Rouge, Georgia will be beat up when it goes to Jacksonville to play Florida (5-1). Then there are consecutive roads trips to Kentucky (5-2) and Auburn (4-3) before hosting an improving team from Georgia Tech (6-1). Survive all that and Georgia could meet No. 2 Alabama (7-0) in the SEC championship game. Wow.
Bottom line: Georgia is a good team but hasn’t looked like one capable of running the table against that schedule. But if the Bulldogs do finish 12-1 and there is an opening for a one-loss team in the BCS championship, it has to be them.
7. SOUTHERN CAL (5-1)
Remaining schedule: Pete Carroll knows that his schedule is the weakest of any team in the TB Top 10. That’s why he beat Washington State 69-0 nothing last week. The Trojans have six games remaining with Arizona (5-2), Washington (0-6), California (4-2), Stanford (4-4), Notre Dame (4-2), and UCLA (3-4). None are ranked.
Bottom line: The computers have the Trojans at No. 10 but the humans put them at No. 4 and No. 5. The computers rankings do not take margin of victory into account. If USC is going to get into the big game, the humans will put the Trojans there.
8. OKLAHOMA STATE (7-0)
Remaining schedule: The Cowboys will get a stern test on Saturday at No. 1 Texas. There is a trip to Texas Tech (7-0) on Nov. 8 and the season finale when it hosts Oklahoma on Nov. 29. Oklahoma State is a good team but winning all three will be difficult.
Bottom line: After two straight losses it appears that Missouri, the best team Oklahoma State has faced, is overrated. But if the Cowboys can run the table and win the Big 12 championship game, they deserve to be in the BCS championship.
9. LSU (5-1)
Remaining schedule: The Tigers’ two toughest remaining games are at home against Georgia on Saturday and Nov. 8 with No. 2 Alabama. This LSU team has some flaws but is capable of beating just about anybody at Tiger Stadium.
Bottom line: People shouldn’t write off LSU because of their 51-21 loss at Florida on Oct. 11. The Tigers are capable of getting to the SEC championship game where they could have a rematch with the Gators. If the Tigers can get to Atlanta at 11-1 then anything can happen. They proved that last season.
10. OHIO STATE
Remaining schedule: If the Buckeyes can knock off No. 3 Penn State Saturday night they have a pretty good shot at finishing 11-1. Ohio State’s final three gams are at Northwestern (6-1), at Illinois (4-3) and at home against woeful Michigan (2-5). Illinois was the only team to beat Ohio State in the regular season in 2007.
Bottom line: If there are multiple one-loss teams on Dec. 7, I think the odds are against Ohio State because voters will remember the 35-3 loss to USC on Sept. 13. After watching the Buckeyes get beat badly in the last two BCS championship games, the voters will figure it’s time to give someone else a chance.
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Some BCS Doomsday Scenarios
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s just for fun, but one of the things I like to do right after the first BCS Standings are released is look for what I call “Doomsday Scenarios.” Those are potential outcomes that will drive the powers that be in college football, or at least some of them, absolutely crazy and spark cries for change in the post-season format for Division I-A football.
Here are some former Doomsday Scenarios that came true:
2000: Miami beats Florida State head to head during the regular season but finishes third behind the Seminoles in the final BCS Standings and gets shut out of the game. Florida State loses to Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl
2001: Nebraska played for the BCS championship but didn’t even win the Big 12. The Cornhuskers were embarrassed by Miami in the Rose Bowl.
2003: Southern Cal finishes No. 1 in both of the human polls but No. 3 in the BCS formula. LSU and Oklahoma play for the BCS championship and USC settles for the AP title. This game changed the BCS formula to weight it more heavily towards the human voters.
2004: Auburn wins the SEC championship at 12-0 and gets shut out of the BCS championship game.
What are the potential Doomsday Scenarios for this season? Here are just five:
1. Penn State gets left out: No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama both finish 13-0 and win their respective conference championship games. Like Auburn in 2004, a 12-0 Penn State, which has not played a game since Nov. 22, finishes No. 3 because it played a weaker schedule. Joe Paterno, 81, is denied the chance to end his career with a national championship game. Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, one of the strongest opponents to a four-team playoff, gets an earful from Paterno.
2. Alabama gets left out: The Crimson Tide has another second-half swoon Saturday night at Tennessee and needs a field goal at the buzzer to win 17-14. Penn State blows out Ohio State and the voters decide it is time for a change and move the Nittany Lions to No. 2 on Sunday. Penn State wins out. For the second time in five years an undefeated SEC team does not make the big game. SEC commissioner Mike Slive reintroduces his plan for a four-team playoff.
3. Southern Cal gets in, 12-1 SEC champ gets left out: The biggest disconnect between the human polls and the computer polls is with the Trojans (5-1), whose loss came at Oregon State (27-21) on Sept. 25. The human polls have them at No. 4 and No. 5 but the computers have USC at No. 10 because of a weak schedule that will only get weaker as the season goes along. But the human polls are now two-thirds of the formula. Let’s say the Trojans get in ahead of a 12-1 Florida team that beat LSU, Georgia, and Alabama and whose only loss was by one point to Ole Miss.
4. Utah or Boise State gets left out: Utah (8-0) of the Mountain West is No. 11 while Boise State (6-0) of the WAC is No. 12. If they go undefeated and hold or improve their current positions both would qualify for an at-large BCS berth. But according to the rules of the BCS only one can go because the rest of the at-large slots are reserved for the big boys. The five Coalition (non-BCS conferences) will fuss a little bit but not much. They had to fight too hard just to get a seat at the BCS table.
5. Big 12 gets hosed again: Last season the Big 12 had three teams ranked in the top eight of the final BCS Standings: No. 4 Oklahoma (11-2), No. 6 Missouri (11-2), and No. 8 Kansas (11-1). Because of the BCS rule that limits each conference to a maximum of two slots, No. 6 Missouri gets left out. This season it could be worse. If Texas loses to Oklahoma State on Saturday, Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma on Nov. 29, and Oklahoma wins out, the Big 12 would have three 11-1 teams ranked in the top five or six. But under the rules, an 11-1 team ranked in the top five could miss a BCS bowl in favor of a lower ranked team from another conference. It happened last season when 9-3 Illinois went to the Rose Bowl. If Penn State beats Ohio State, then the last at-large bid will likely go to the 10-2 Buckeyes.
These are my Doomsday Scenarios. What are yours?
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