AJC > Sports > Blog > Archives > 2008 > October > 10
Friday, October 10, 2008
Dawgs win, but it won’t be easy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Auburn lost to Vanderbilt (14-13) because the offense against lost its way and on Wednesday Tony Franklin, who is in charge of said offense, lost this job.
Ole Miss lost to South Carolina (31-24) because the Rebels couldn’t handle the success of beating Florida the week before and because The Head Ball Coach of the Gamecocks may be starting to figure some things out on offense.
Maryland lost to Virginia (31-0) because…Well, I don’t know why Maryland lost to Virginia the week after beating Clemson in Death Valley. The game made no sense.
Wisconsin had the lead on Ohio State late and probably didn’t think a freshman quarterback could drive the field on them to win the game. Wrong. Terrelle Pryor did it and the Badgers saw their 16-game home winning streak snapped 20-17.
There are at least three games in that list that could have easily gone the other way but your humble prognosticator was on the other side and finished with a record of 6-4 last week. That gives us a reasonable record of 43-17 after six weeks.
Thanks to the soap opera at Auburn, what was already going to be a great weekend of college football has even more drama. So let’s just wade in and begin yet another edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Tennessee (2-3) at Georgia (4-1): Logically, this game should not be close. Nothing is working on the offensive side of the ball at Tennessee. The Volunteer fan base is restless, angry, and in some cases, resigned to a bad season. There are Tennessee fans who want the administration to pull the plug on Phillip Fulmer’s 17-year tenure right now. Georgia has had a week to rest and needs to get back on track. If Georgia believes that it is one of the elite teams in the country, the Bulldogs need to start making the case. The energy for this game is strange. Georgia’s fans should be jacked up because of what Tennessee did to them last year in Knoxville. Maybe that changes once the game starts. I just get the sense that Tennessee is so overdue to play a decent game that they will come to Athens and be able to take Georgia’s best shot. The Bulldogs win it, but not without a scare. Georgia 24, Tennessee 21.
2. Gardner-Webb (2-3) at Georgia Tech (4-1): This game is about one thing and one thing only. And that’s putting GW away as soon as possible without injury so that the preparations can begin for the trip to Clemson on Oct. 18. If that means that both Jaybo Shaw and Josh Nesbitt have to sit then so be it. Give Calvin Booker his shot because he’s earned it. Tech should be able to break a few big plays early and then give the starters the rest of the day off. Georgia Tech 45, Gardner-Webb 3.
3. LSU (4-0) at Florida (4-1): Five games into the season Florida still hasn’t put together a sharp performance from start to finish. Well, the Gators are going to need one on Saturday night if they are going to beat No. 4 LSU. LSU has had a week off and if Jarrett Lee continues to give the Tigers good play at quarterback, they are going to be hard to beat. But keep this in mind. LSU is planning to play both Lee and Andrew Hatch at quarterback. Why? Because Lee is young and he has never seen anything like the crowd that will be on top of him Saturday night at The Swamp. If Lee makes mistakes, the Gators might find a way to win. I just think LSU is too physical on both lines of scrimmage and that the Florida offensive line continues to have its problems. The Tigers will try to smack Florida in the mouth early the way Alabama did Georgia. But this game will be much closer. LSU 24, Florida 20.
4. Arkansas (2-3) at Auburn (4-2): It has been a pretty tough week at Auburn with the firing of offensive coordinator Tony Franklin and the fallout that has been hitting head coach Tommy Tuberville. Veteran coach Steve Ensminger, a former assistant at Georgia, will call the plays in what is sure to be a back to basics approach against Arkansas, which has the No. 107 rushing defense in the country (208.44 ypg). It will be ugly, you can count on that, but Auburn will find a way to win at home. Auburn 24, Arkansas 10.
5. South Carolina (4-2) at Kentucky (5-1): Kentucky proved that its defense was for real last week in holding Alabama to just one offensive touchdown in a 17-14 loss at Tuscaloosa. It was a tough loss but I think Kentucky gained some confidence from the game. Quarterback Chris Smelley played perhaps his best game at South Carolina last week when the Gamecocks won at Ole Miss 31-24. But Smelley has found it difficult to play consistently and will take his lumps at Lexington. Kentucky 17, South Carolina 14.
6. Vanderbilt (5-0) at Miss. State (1-4): Vanderbilt is 5-0 for the first time since 1943 and with a win would be 6-0 for the first time since 1928. Vanderbilt has never been 4-0 in the SEC and could do that with a win at Starkville. Vanderbilt continues to lead the nation in turnover margin (plus-9) and has only committed 16 penalties in five games. (Georgia, by contrast has 53 penalties in five games). As long as the Commodores don’t turn the ball over they will be fine in this game because Mississippi State is ranked 114th in scoring (16.2 ppg). Vanderbilt 20, Miss. State 7.
7. Notre Dame (4-1) at North Carolina (4-1): Notre Dame has won four games but three of those have come against teams with defenses ranked No. 91 or worse (Stanford, San Diego State, Purdue). The Tar Heels were pretty impressive last week in a 38-12 win over Connecticut and are starting to figure some things out. The ACC, which people were calling the worst conference in the world in early September, gets another chance to post a big non-conference win. The Tar Heels are 1-16 all time against Notre Dame. On Saturday they will double their win total against the Fighting Irish. North Carolina 31, Notre Dame 21.
8. Texas (5-0) vs. Oklahoma (5-0) in Dallas: It’s the biggest matchup of the weekend as No. 1 plays No. 5. Both have hot quarterbacks. Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford is completing 72.6 percent of his passes and is averaging 15.7 yards per completion. Colt McCoy of Texas has been beating teams with his arm and his feet, averaging 319.4 yards of total offense per game. The edge in this game goes to Oklahoma because of defense. Look for the OU defense to hit McCoy early and often in order to get him off rhythm. The Texas defense, under new DC Will Muschamp, is playing with a little more of an edge. But the Longhorns only have two interceptions on the season in 199 passing attempts against them.. Oklahoma 28, Texas 20.
9. Oklahoma State (5-0) at Missouri (5-0): Right now no quarterback in the country is playing better than Missouri’s Chase Daniel. Last week against Nebraska, Missouri had 462 total yards. Daniel had 412 of them and led the Tigers to scores on six of his first seven possessions before sitting out the rest of the game. Oklahoma State has scored 50 or more points in its last four games. Missouri seems destined to run the table and face Texas or Oklahoma on Dec. 6 for the Big 12 championship. This could be a wild one. Missouri 38, Oklahoma State 24.
10. Penn State (6-0) at Wisconsin (3-2): Wisconsin had Ohio State beat last week until the Buckeyes and Terrelle Pryor drove the length of the field and scored late. Now Wisconsin has a chance to salvage its season by knocking off the nation’s No. 6 team. Penn State has one quality win over Illinois (38-24) at home. The Nittany Lions play at Ohio State on Oct. 25. I say Penn State looks past the Badgers and gets upset on the road. Wisconsin 17, Penn State 16.
Services »
