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Friday, October 3, 2008
The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Ouch.
We were 6-4 last week and some of those losses really hurt.
I wasn’t surprised that Alabama beat Georgia. I was very surprised that the Crimson Tide led 31-0 at halftime. Double ouch if you picked the Bulldogs at home.
The other losses were surprises.
Who knew that Florida was going to turn it over three times (two by Tim Tebow) and lose to Ole Miss 31-30 in The Swamp?
Who knew that Navy was going to force Wake Forest, one of the best schools in the country when it comes to turnover margin, into six turnovers?
Who knew that North Carolina could go to Miami without its starting quarterback (T.J. Yates of Marietta) and still find a way to win?
Who knew that four of the top nine and nine out of the Top 25 were going to lose?
That’s the great thing about college football. You don’t know. Something totally unpredictable is going to happen on Saturday and I can’t wait to see what it will be. That is why your humble prognosticator has been 6-4 the past two weeks and is 37-13 after five weeks. Still, we press on and are proud to bring you another award-winning edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Duke (3-1) at Georgia Tech (3-1): Back in the summer, we didn’t give this game much thought. Now it is a very significant outing for both teams. Duke, whose only loss is to 5-0 Northwestern, is playing with some confidence under new coach David Cutcliffe. But the Blue Devils, who can move the football with QB Thaddeus Lewis and WR Eron Riley (of Savannah), have not seen a defensive front like Georgia Tech’s. And we might also mention that this is Duke’s first road game of the season. The Blue Devils have lost 16 straight ACC road games dating back to a 2003 win at North Carolina. That barely qualifies as a road game because it’s about a 15-minute bus ride to Chapel Hill. Duke has not won in Atlanta since 1994.
If Georgia Tech doesn’t turn the ball over the Yellow Jackets should be in pretty good shape for this one. But if QB Jaybo Shaw, who starts while Josh Nesbitt nurses a bad hamstring, struggles and the ball goes on the ground, it could go down to the wire. Georgia Tech 28, Duke 17.
2. Kentucky (4-0) at Alabama (5-0): The Crimson Tide is coming off a pretty severe beat down of Georgia in Athens. Coach Nick Saban has warned, until he is Crimson in his face, about complacency, especially against a Kentucky defense that allows only 5.5 points per game. The Kentucky defense, led by LB Braxton Kelley of LaGrange and Trevard Lindley of Hiram, is very good but honesty compels us to mention that the Wildcats haven’t really been tested in their non-conference schedule. Alabama plays big boy football and if the Tide protects QB John Parker Wilson, it should roll for most of the afternoon. Alabama 24, Kentucky 7.
3. Auburn (4-0) at Vanderbilt (4-0): The Commodores have a lot of play for. They haven’t been 5-0 since 1943. ESPN’s College Game Day is in Nashville for the first time. A win would make Vanderbilt 3-0 in the SEC and put the ‘Dores to within one victory of qualifying for their first bowl game since 1982. It’s tempting to take Bobby Johnson’s team at home because they are so fundamentally sound. But the Auburn defense is very, very good and the offense, we’re told, is going to get back to basics on Saturday. It will probably be an ugly game, as most of them have been for Auburn this season. Tommy Tuberville specializes in winning ugly games. Auburn 17, Vanderbilt 10.
4. Florida (3-1) at Arkansas (2-2): The Gators may still be in a state of shock after losing to Ole Miss at home last season. But they have to snap out of it and travel to Fayetteville. Arkansas is not very good on defense, having given up 101 points (to No. 2 Alabama and No. 5 Texas) in its past two games. Florida needs to get its ducks in a row because No. 3 LSU comes to The Swamp on Oct. 11. Look for Urban Meyer to take out his frustrations on Bobby Petrino, who probably won’t get a lot of sympathy in this part of the world as the Hogs lost their third straight. Florida 45, Arkansas 10.
5. South Carolina (3-2) at Ole Miss (3-2): The Rebels now have to show they can come back and focus after one of the biggest wins in recent years. Houston Nutt has his first signature win as the head coach at Ole Miss and wants to build on it by beating a South Carolina team that is getting a little desperate. The Gamecocks have the nation’s No. 1 defense but, as coach Steve Spurrier readily admits, the offense is not keeping up their end of the deal. Chris Smelley will start at quarterback but look for Spurrier to give a long look to redshirt freshman QB Stephen Garcia. Garcia can move to avoid the rush, which is something both South Carolina quarterbacks will have to do. I get the feeling this one will be close. Ole Miss 21, South Carolina 20.
6. Northern Illinois (2-2) at Tennessee (1-3): Things are starting to get pretty ugly in Big Orange Country. I would say that Tennessee’s offense is shooting itself in the foot, but I’m not sure this crowd could hit its own foot. Coach Phillip Fulmer will announce his starting quarterback at some point on Friday but in my mind he has no choice but to give Nick Stephens a shot and hope for the best against the Huskies. You just can’t ask Jonathan Crompton to take the first snap in this game at home because, like it or not, the crowd will boo and the game will begin a negative note. Tennessee must find some answers before next week’s trip to Georgia. The Vols will win, but will they be ugly doing it? Tennessee 28, Northern Illinois 14.
7. Florida State (3-1) at Miami (2-2): Remember when this used to be the biggest game on the planet Earth? Now it barely moves the needle on the excitement meter. Both of these teams need a win to prove that their programs are finally headed in the right direction. Florida State found a running game in beating Colorado while Miami struggled in the second half and lost to North Carolina. This will be a hard fought game because the kids know each other so well. I just think Florida State comes up with one more play in the fourth quarter. Florida State 17, Miami 14.
8. Maryland (4-1) at Virginia (1-3): Remember when Maryland got beat by Middle Tennessee State and everybody wrote the Terps off? Now Ralph Friedgen’s troops have beaten California at home, Clemson on the road and are starting to get a little confidence. Virginia, meanwhile, was tied with Duke 3-3 at halftime last week and collapsed and lost 31-3. With Clemson struggling, the ACC Atlantic is wide open. Why not the Terps? Maryland 31, Virginia 10.
9. Ohio State (4-1) at Wisconsin (3-1): The Buckeyes feel like they are making some progress now that RB Beanie Wells is healthy and freshman QB Terrelle Pryor is starting to find his comfort zone. But it didn’t help coach Jim Tressel when Wisconsin blew a 19-0 halftime lead and lost at Michigan last week. The Badgers, who have won 16 straight home games at Camp Randall Stadium, will be very focused for this one. The loser pretty much knows that it is out of the Rose Bowl picture. Wisconsin has won 21 of its last 22 night games and the Badgers will win this one. Wisconsin 24, Ohio State 23.
10. Texas (4-0) at Colorado (3-1): A good time to play Texas is the week before the Longhorns go to Dallas to play Oklahoma. It will be hard to get the Texas players to focus on the Buffs with the No. 1 team in the nation waiting on deck. But Texas will be fine because Colt McCoy is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country and the defense is playing with an attitude under new DC Will Muschamp. McCoy has thrown for 14 touchdowns and run for four more. He has only thrown one interception in four games. The Texas defense has 14 sacks in its last two games. Texas 31, Colorado 10.
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