AJC > Sports > Blog > Archives > 2008 > September > 26
Friday, September 26, 2008
Georgia could move back to No. 1
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, well, well.
Remember earlier this month when some wise guy sports writer told you that Southern Cal was No. 1 and that there was simply NO WAY that the Trojans were going to lose against THAT schedule? Remember how that same guy assured you that, in his infinite wisdom, everybody else in college football was playing for second place?
Silly man. He forgot the lessons we learned last season that ANYTHING is possible in college football. Last season No. 1 and No. 2 lost on the same day—three times! So what does last night’s stunning loss by Southern Cal to Oregon State mean? Two things:
1) Oklahoma, you’re No. 2 which means you should be very, very nervous against No. 24 TCU (4-0) on Saturday in Norman.
2) Georgia, you’re No. 3 and you opened up a few eyes last week when you went to Arizona State and took care of business. If you win Saturday night against No. 8 Alabama with the whole world (and ESPN’s College Game Day) watching, you could be back at No. 1 come Sunday morning.
Southern Cal’s loss, and the fact that the Trojans trailed 21-0 at halftime, means they will drop significantly in Sunday’s new polls. And even if Oklahoma beats TCU, which is 11-2 in its last 13 games against BCS opponents, Georgia could jump over them with an impressive win over the Crimson Tide. Georgia coach Mark Richt, of course, would take a 3-2 win right now if he could get it.
The point is that USC’s loss changed the whole dynamic of the race to the BCS championship. If everybody wins who is supposed to win on Saturday, the top six teams come Sunday will all be from the SEC and the Big 12: Oklahoma, Georgia/Alabama winner, Florida, LSU, Missouri, and Texas. The SEC and the Big 12 are clearly the best two conferences in college football this season.
Starting next week we could be looking at a nine-week elimination race to sort out the two champions. Or, could the Big Ten champ, Wisconsin or Penn State or one-loss Ohio State, inject itself into the mix? I doubt it. Or if everybody loses one, does USC get back into the mix at the end of the season? It will be tougher because of a weak Pac-10.
Bottom line: The crazy, fun part of college football season started last night. So buckle up. From here on out it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
And with that, fellow travelers, we bring you another edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Alabama (4-0) at Georgia (4-0): This game really didn’t need any more energy but Southern Cal’s loss just opened up another can of Red Bull for the No. 1 game of the weekend. We’ve got all the elements. We’ve got strength coaches at Alabama talking about going to funerals. We have Georgia coach Mark Richt wearing black to practice so that he’s properly dressed for the service. We’ve got a mountain of a man (Terrence Cody) playing nose tackle for Alabama and a wild-eyed true freshman (Ben Jones) from Georgia, who is an Alabama native and can’t wait to try and move him. Man, this is going to be fun.
Both of these teams were impressive last week as Alabama dominated Arkansas (49-14) and Georgia went out to the desert and cooled off Arizona State (27-10) in a game that wasn’t nearly that close. This game is easy to analyze. Rick Bragg, one of my favorite writers, once said that every big SEC game “is like a knife fight in a ditch.” This will be one of those games.
Saban will tell his players to smack Georgia in the mouth on the first possession to see how the Bulldogs will respond. Georgia’s young offensive line will find the going kind of tough against that Alabama defensive front. But Bulldog quarterback Matt Stafford will step up and give one of his best performances at Georgia. This will be a big time football game. Georgia 21, Alabama 17.
2. Tennessee (1-2) at Auburn (3-1): Both teams lost last week but Auburn is feeling much better about its team and life in general as Tennessee comes to town for a 3:30 p.m. game. Last week against LSU the Tigers figured out some things on offense and were able to move the ball against one of the better defenses in the country. Tennessee made a ton of mistakes and was lucky Florida did not beat the Vols worse than 30-6. Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer has his back to the wall and in the past that is when he’s done some of his best work. But the Vols are missing something and they don’t figure to find it at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn 28, Tennessee 14.
3. Ole Miss (2-2) at Florida (3-0): The Gators made it look a little too easy last week against Tennessee and as a result they can pretty much put it on cruise control for the next two weeks against Ole Miss and Arkansas (Oct. 4 in Fayetteville). It’s an early start in Gainesville so it probably won’t be a very pretty game. But Urban Meyer and the gang will do what they have to do to start getting ready for an Oct. 11 visit from LSU. Florida 31, Ole Miss 10.
4. Miss. State (1-3) at LSU (3-0): Here is why this game is important for LSU. Redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee brought the Tigers from behind to win at Auburn last week. The job appears to be his, but can he play as well after a week of going to bed every night knowing that he’s THE guy? It’s one thing to come off the bench and play the game when you haven’t had time to think about it. But all week Lee has listened to people tell him how good he is. LSU doesn’t need to hold anything back against the Bulldogs because the Tigers get a week off after this game. Mississippi State needs some good news after losing to Georgia Tech 38-7. But Sylvester Croom won’t find any good news in Baton Rouge. LSU 35, Miss. State 7.
5. UAB (1-3) at South Carolina (2-2): South Carolina is going to win the game against a UAB team that has given up 129 points in its three losses. We are interested in this game because quarterback Stephen Garcia is going to get his first significant playing time for the Gamecocks. Coach Steve Spurrier is so frustrated with his offense that he threw every position open for competition this week. Garcia will make a lot of mistakes but Spurrier will have to live with them because the young quarterback needs to come through if the Gamecocks are going to have a decent season. South Carolina 24, UAB 3.
6. North Carolina (2-1) at Miami (2-1): The Hurricanes finally got their offense cranked up and had some big plays last week in a 41-23 win at Texas A&M. This was supposed to be a fun homecoming for former Miami coach Butch Davis, who is now the head guy at North Carolina. But Butch has to go down to Dolphin Stadium without his quarterback, T.J. Yates, who is out for at least six weeks with a broken ankle. Neither Mike Paulus nor Cameron Sexton is ready for that Miami defense. Miami 24, North Carolina 13.
7. Virginia (1-2) at Duke (2-1): This could be the game where Duke proclaims that they are not going to live in the ACC basement any more. The Blue Devils are favored to win an ACC game for the first time since 2002. The Blue Devils, whose only loss was to Northwestern (4-0), are playing with a little bit of an attitude under David Cutcliffe. Duke gets it done and gets ready for next week’s trip to Georgia Tech. Duke 23, Virginia 17.
8. Florida State (2-1) vs. Colorado (3-0) in Jacksonville: Florida State took a huge step back last week when it committed seven turnovers in a 12-3 loss to Wake Forest. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher said he is sticking with quarterback Christian Ponder for now. The Seminoles finally get all the players back who were suspended for the first three games because of the academic cheating scandal and that will make a difference. Florida State 24, Colorado 14.
9. Virginia Tech (3-1) at Nebraska (3-0): After a tough loss to East Carolina in its opener, Virginia Tech has bounced back to win three straight, including a couple of good ACC wins over Georgia Tech (20-17) and North Carolina (20-17). Now the Hokies travel to Lincoln to play a Nebraska program that is rebuilding under new coach Bo Pelini. Nebraska’s three wins are over Western Michigan, San Jose State, and New Mexico State so it’s fair to say that the Cornhuskers have not been test. They will be tested—and more—on Saturday. Virginia Tech 17, Nebraska 16.
10. Navy (2-2) at Wake Forest (3-0): The Deacons have forced 15 turnovers in three games and could have quite a time today against Navy’s option attack. Wake Forest could have a little letdown after beating Florida State and could be looking ahead to a big ACC showdown with Clemson on Oct. 9. Navy beat Rutgers 23-21 on a late field goal last week and is starting to get a little momentum. Brad Lambert’s defense will keep the Deacons undefeated. Wake Forest 31, Navy 17.
