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Wednesday, September 24, 2008
USC, Oklahoma, Georgia: Who’s the odd man out?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
ESPN.com’s Mark Schlabach raised this point to me the other night when we were getting ready for our TV show, “Talkin Football,” on CSS. I know it’s way too early to be thinking about this kind of stuff and that the odds are greatly against it. But what if No. 1 Southern Cal, No. 2 Oklahoma, and No. 3 Georgia all go undefeated?
Which team would be the odd man out for the BCS championship game?
It’s not that far-fetched. It certainly happened in 2004 when USC and Oklahoma went undefeated and Auburn, the undefeated SEC champion, finished No. 3.
In 2003 Southern Cal was No. 1 in both human polls but the BCS standings put the Trojans at No. 3 and LSU and Oklahoma played for the BCS championship. But remember that the formula for the BCS standings has been changed since then to give greater weight to the human polls.
If you don’t pay attention to the rankings and start with a blank slate on the night of Dec. 6 (championship Saturday), the odd man out would have to be Southern Cal because the Trojans’ schedule is significantly weaker than Oklahoma’s or Georgia’s. I did a little research using the 1-120 rankings on CBSSports.com. Now I understand that the rankings will look nothing like this on Dec. 6. But it does provide a pretty good early comparison of the relative strengths of the schedules that these three teams are going to have to play.
For this comparison, understand that Georgia could be replaced by Florida, Alabama, or LSU. The numbers for the SEC champion would be pretty much the same. But Georgia is No. 3 right now so we’ll use the Bulldogs for this exercise.
Here is how the schedules of Southern Cal, Oklahoma, and Georgia compare with the ranking of each opponent in parentheses. Only Division I-A opponents are included:
No. 1 SOUTHERN CAL: Virginia (89), Ohio State (13), Oregon State (69), Oregon (27), Arizona State (43), Washington State (98), Arizona (49), Washington (94), California (55), Stanford (63), Notre Dame (50), UCLA (58).
Average opponents’ rank: 59.
Worth noting: Southern Cal plays eight teams ranked No. 50 or higher and three teams ranked No. 89 or higher.
No. 2 OKLAHOMA: Cincinnati (34), Washington (94), TCU (30), Baylor (80), Texas (7), Kansas (17), Kansas State (64), Nebraska (37), Texas A&M (90), Texas Tech (11), Oklahoma State (31).
Average opponents’ rank: 45.
Worth noting: If Oklahoma plays No. 4 Missouri in the Big 12 championship game, the opponent’s average rank drops to 41.6. Oklahoma plays four teams ranked No. 50 or higher and two teams (Texas, Texas Tech) in the Top 11.
No. 3 GEORGIA: Central Michigan (71), South Carolina (53), Arizona State (43), Alabama (9), Tennessee (52), Vanderbilt (25), LSU (5), Florida (4), Kentucky (48), Auburn (12), Georgia Tech (32).
Average opponent’s rank:32.2.
Worth noting: If Georgia makes it to the SEC championship game the Bulldogs will have a rematch with Alabama, Auburn, or LSU, which are all ranked in the Top 12. Georgia plays three teams ranked No. 50 or higher and none ranked higher than 71. Six of its 11 Division I-A opponents are ranked in the Top 32. Four are in the Top 12.
Here is what will be interesting. The first BCS standings will be released on Oct. 19. Take a look at where USC will be in the six computer polls, which will reflect the strength of schedules. I’ll bet the computer rankings for USC will be pretty low relative to the highest ranked Big 12 and SEC team. And the way the Pac-10 looks right now, Ohio State will be the only Top 15 win on the USC schedule at the end of the season.
But will the voters in the Harris and coaches polls take the strength of schedule into consideration, or does USC stay at No.1 if the Trojans keep winning? That team has a lot of star power and will score a lot of points.
Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville told me that he’s concerned that the voters west of the Mississippi don’t understand how good the defenses are in the SEC and equate low-scoring football to bad football. Is he right?
Like I said, it’s way too early. But it is something to think about as we move forward.
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