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Friday, September 19, 2008
The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
If Fresno State had not missed three field goals against Wisconsin, your humble prognosticator would have gone 10-0 last week. Then again, WAC officials admit their guy made a mistake in when a video review took away a Wisconsin fumble recovery at the Fresno State 26-yard line. Stuff happens so we were 9-1.
Virginia Tech managed to get past Georgia Tech by a field goal in a game the Hokies had to have. Georgia won ugly but we said they would win ugly. Notre Dame won despite getting its head coach rolled on the sideline and finishing up the game in a leg brace.
We are 25-5 for the season. Granted, there have been some easy pickings in the first three weeks but now, gentle readers, it is time for the real fun to begin. We’ve got some games, both conference and non-conference, that are going to tell us a lot. If you’re a real college football fan, these are the kind of weekends you live for.
So without hesitation and only a mild amount of trepidation, let us proceed with another award-winning edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast:
1. Georgia (3-0) at Arizona State (2-1): A little of the shine was taken off this game when Arizona State forgot to keep playing in its home game with UNLV last week. Were the Sun Devils peaking ahead to Georgia? Absolutely. This is the biggest game in Tempe since Nebraska, the two-time defending national champ, arrived in 1996. Arizona State won that game 19-0.
Will ASU be ready to play its best game of the year against the Bulldogs? No doubt about it. But here’s the deal. After a tough 14-7 win at South Carolina last week, Georgia needs to impress somebody, if only themselves. The pollsters have already dropped the Dawgs from No. 1 to No. 3. Arizona State has a very young offensive line and that will show in this game. The Sun Devils feed off the energy of the crowd and will hang in there for about a half. Then talent takes over and Georgia has more of it. Georgia 31, Arizona State 17.
2. Mississippi State (1-2) at Georgia Tech (2-1): The Techsters almost won their second straight ACC road game last week in Blacksburg but could not overcome three turnovers. Now the Yellow Jackets return home where they will face a pretty stout Mississippi State defense that held Auburn to just a field goal. Bulldogs coach Sylvester Croom told me that he started working on Georgia Tech’s option attack back in the summer because it is so hard to defend. But it’s the Georgia Tech defense that will win this one. The Mississippi State offense will not score a touchdown for the second straight week. Georgia Tech 14, Mississippi State 6.
3. LSU (2-0) at Auburn (3-0): Auburn’s offense is just a mess. Head coach Tommy Tuberville said so and so does his new OC, Tony Franklin. But there ain’t nothing wrong with that Auburn defense. If Tuberville gets his way this will be an ugly, ugly football game that gets decided in the final minutes. LSU has the overall edge on talent but Auburn is playing at home. Tuberville always get his guys ready to play in these kinds of games. Auburn has won 9 of its last 12 against Top 10 opponents. In our Blue Plate Double Platinum Upset Special of the week, we’re going with Auburn. Auburn 10, LSU 7.
4. Florida (2-0) at Tennessee (1-1): The Gators have had a week off since beating Miami at home on Sept. 6. Tennessee’s fans have been in a foul mood since the Vols lost to UCLA on Sept. 1 and frankly, they have a right to be. There are still a lot of questions about this Tennessee team. It hasn’t yet established a clear identity of what it wants to do on offense or defense. It better have some answers by 3:30 p.m. on Saturday.
The energy in Neyland Stadium will be high when the game starts because it’s the Gators. But that might change quickly if the Vols get down by double digits. Tennessee’s only shot is to run the football, shorten the game and limit Tim Tebow’s possessions. But I predict something will happen in the special teams that will put Tennessee in a hole and force the Vols to start flinging the ball all over Shields-Watkins Field. That will not be good. Florida 31, Tennessee 20.
5. Alabama (3-0) at Arkansas (2-1): After a sloppy game against Tulane on Sept. 6, Alabama got back on track and looked like a dangerous football team last week against Western Kentucky. But now comes the real test as the Crimson Tide goes on the road in the SEC. Arkansas caught a break last week because it did not have to play Texas in Austin because of the hurricane. So the Hogs will be a little more rested and prepared. It won’t matter. Alabama’s defense is too strong and now QB John Parker Wilson has some real weapons at his disposal. This game is always tough and Arkansas will put up a good fight. Still, the Tide rolls to 4-0. Alabama 28, Arkansas 7.
6. Vanderbilt (3-0) at Ole Miss (2-1): The Commodores have a chance to go 4-0 for the first time since 2005. This will be one of the better games of the day because both teams know that at the end of the year a win could mean the difference in going to a bowl game and staying at home for the holidays. Vanderbilt has a real shot because of a very underrated defense and quarterback Chris Nickson. If the Commodores force Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead into a couple of turnovers, they could sneak out of Vaught-Hemingway with a win. I like the Rebels at home on a field goal at the buzzer. Ole Miss 24, Vanderbilt 21.
7. Wake Forest (2-0) at Florida State (2-0): The last time the Wake Forest Demon Deacons invaded Tallahassee, they hung a 30-0 embarrassment around the neck of Bobby Bowden. That might not have been rock bottom for Bowden’s once-proud program, but you could sure see it from there. Now the Seminoles have regrouped and were impressive in their early march through a pair of cupcakes-Western Carolina and Chattanooga. If Florida State has actually improved under the watchful eye of OC Jimbo Fisher, here is where we’ll find out. I’m tempted to pick the Seminoles, but I just think Wake Forest is too solid with a really good defense and QB Riley Skinner. Sam Swank kicks another game-winning field goal. Wake Forest 27, Florida State 24.
8. Virginia Tech (2-1) at North Carolina (2-0): I said before the season that North Carolina would be the most improved team in the ACC. If the Tar Heels win Saturday in Chapel Hill against the Hokies, they just might be good enough to win the Coastal Division. The Hokies have finally settled on a quarterback in Tyrod Taylor but Bud Foster’s defense still doesn’t have the nasty streak that I’m used to seeing. Carolina’s defense, however, knows how to lay the lumber to the opposition. The Tar Heels have too many offensive weapons with QB T.J. Yates and Brandon Tate, the best all-purpose player in the ACC. North Carolina 24, Virginia Tech 14.
9. Miami (1-1) at Texas A&M (1-1): The Hurricanes showed a little life two weeks ago at Florida, losing 26-3 in a very deceptive final score. The defense has a chance to be pretty decent before the season over and will go against a bad offense with a beat up quarterback in Stephen McGee (shoulder), who might not play after starting 29 straight games for the Aggies. Miami could use a solid win on the road. They will get it on Saturday at College Station. Miami 17, Texas A&M 14.
10. East Carolina (2-0) at N.C. State (1-2): Here we are in week four and N.C. State is still looking for its first offensive touchdown against a Division I-A team. East Carolina, meanwhile, is 3-0 with wins over West Virginia and Virginia Tech. None of that matters. This is a huge rivalry with a lot of bad blood. A year ago the Wolfpack was 1-5 and went to Greenville, N.C., and spanked the Pirates, a future bowl team, 34-20. The two schools are only 70 miles apart. East Carolina wins but it won’t be easy. East Carolina 17, N.C. State 10.
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