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Tuesday, September 16, 2008
SEC No. 1 but Big 12 closing fast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We certainly don’t know everything just three weeks into the season, but here is one man’s opinion on the relative strength of the Division I-A conferences:
1. SEC: This one’s easy. Five teams are ranked in the AP Top 10 for the first time in history: Georgia (3), Florida (4), LSU (6), Alabama (9), and Auburn (10). Alabama is better than we thought. Auburn might not be as good. Of course these rankings won’t stay this way because the teams in this league just beat each other up. What’s interesting is that both Georgia and LSU play the other four Top 10 teams. Alabama plays three (Georgia, LSU, Auburn). Auburn plays three (Georgia, LSU, Alabama), and Florida plays two (Georgia, LSU).
2. Big 12: This conference is gaining fast on the SEC. No. 2 Oklahoma (3-0) has blown away the competition but I’ve been very impressed with No. 5 Missouri with QB Chase Daniel and WR Jeremy Maclin. I had Missouri ranked ahead of Oklahoma in the pre-season and I’ll stick by that. The jury is still out on No. 7 Texas and No. 11 Texas Tech. Nebraska (3-0) isn’t a really good team right now but it is just a matter of time under Bo Pelini. There are bunch of really good quarterbacks in this league (Daniel, OU’s Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy of Texas, Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell). That is always a sign of strength.
3. Big Ten: Despite Ohio State’s thumping at Southern Cal and Michigan’s numerous problems, I still have to put the Big Ten in the No. 3 spot because Wisconsin is a solid team that went on the road and beat Fresno State (13-10) last Saturday. Despite what happened at the Coliseum, Ohio State is good enough to go 11-1 and win the Big Ten. No. 16 Penn State (3-0) appears better than I thought but we won’t know for sure until the Nittany Lions get into the conference schedule. Penn State has had more cupcakes (Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse) than a four-year old at a birthday party. Illinois (2-1) barely got by Louisiana-Lafayette and may not be as good as I thought.
4. ACC: I know, I know. After the first two weekends ACC bashing was all in vogue. But look at the quality non-conference teams the league has played (South Carolina, East Carolina, Alabama, Southern Cal, Ole Miss, Florida, California). Look at what’s happened since Clemson’s embarrassing loss to Alabama. North Carolina (2-0) went on the road and was impressive in beating Rutgers. Maryland, which lost to Middle Tennessee the week before, beat California, a team many thought was the second best in the Pac-10. Georgia Tech is better than expected. Virginia Tech is starting to figure some things out. Wake Forest had a good non-conference win against Ole Miss. Clemson is still good enough to go 11-1. Miami played Florida tough for three quarters at Gainesville. It’s early, but it appears Florida State is better. Duke (2-1) is obviously better under David Cutcliffe. The ACC doesn’t have any great teams but from top to bottom it may be the most balanced league next to the SEC.
5. Mountain West: BYU is good (59-0 over UCLA). Utah (3-0) is good, winning at Michigan in the opener. TCU (3-0) is good, beating Stanford 31-14 over the weekend. Now that Fresno State is out of the BCS picture, you have to figure that one of these three MWC teams or East Carolina is going to get an at-large bid. Air Force is 3-0 after beating Houston (31-28) in a rainstorm last Saturday. UNLV (2-1) went on the road and beat Arizona State 23-20 in overtime. I was very tempted to put the MWC into the four-hole and it could still get there.
6. Pac-10: Southern Cal (2-0) is the best team in the country. Oregon (3-0) is not bad but the Ducks just lost quarterback Justin Roper (knee) for 2-4 weeks. But after that it’s a long stretch of bad road. UCLA got embarrassed by BYU (59-0). Arizona State loses at home to UNLV. Cal gets beat on the road at Maryland. Stanford loses to TCU. Arizona loses to New Mexico (36-28). Oregon State (1-2), Washington (0-3), and Washington State (0-3) are just bad teams.
7. Big East: Based on what’s I’ve seen to date, South Florida (3-0) is the best team in this league and West Virginia (1-1) simply isn’t as good as it was a year ago. Rutgers has been a huge disappointment, getting ripped in two straight home games. Steve Kragthorpe at Louisville (1-1) is still in a rebuilding job. Pittsburgh was supposed to take a step forward this year but lost to Bowling Green (27-17) in its opener. Cincinnati (1-1) just lost quarterback Dustin Grutza for an extended period of time. Syracuse (0-3) may not win a game this season and will soon be looking for a new head coach.
8. Conference USA: East Carolina (3-0) is legitimate BCS contender. Tulsa (2-0) will score a lot of points. Central Florida (1-1) took South Florida to overtime. But after that there’s not much. Rice (2-1) moves the ball but was dominated in the second half by Vanderbilt (38-21). Memphis (0-3) is struggling as is UAB (0-3). East Carolina vs. Tulsa in the conference championship game will be pretty good stuff.
9. WAC: Fresno State will win this league but the jury is still out on a bunch of teams. Boise State is 2-0 but we won’t know about the Broncos until after they play at Oregon on Saturday. Louisiana Tech (1-1) has beaten Mississippi State and lost to Kansas (29-0) and is getting better under Derek Dooley. Hawaii (1-2) is not nearly as good without June Jones and Colt Brennan. San Jose State (2-1) beat San Diego State but it looks like everybody’s going to beat San Diego State this season.
10. Sun Belt: People tend to automatically rate this league 11th. But it’s time to take a second look. There are some quality wins in this league. Middle Tennessee beat Maryland (24-14) at home. Arkansas State beat Texas A&M (18-14) on the road. And Troy (2-0) may again be the class of the league and has beaten Middle Tennessee State (31-17) and Alcorn State (65-0). Saturday the Trojans go to Ohio State and will play at LSU on Nov. 15. Florida Atlantic is 1-2 but the losses were on the road at Texas (52-10) and Michigan State (17-0). The Owls could actually win at Minnesota on Saturday.
11. Mid-American: Sorry, MAC fans, but the best wins you have are Bowling Green over Pittsburgh (27-17) and Akron over Syracuse (42-28). Ohio (0-3) scared the heck out of Ohio State. The Fighting David Lettermans of Ball State (3-0) look like the best team in the league along with Central Michigan (2-1)
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