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Friday, September 12, 2008
The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Here is yet another reason why college football is the best game in the world. By all accounts, last week was supposed to be the lousiest slate of games for the 2008 season. But invariably, that’s when we get a couple of surprises.
I went 8-2 last week because I missed Georgia Tech’s impressive win at Boston College and East Carolina’s complete domination of West Virginia. Those two games alone have significantly changed the college football landscape. Georgia Tech now looks like a team that could have a pretty decent season under new coach Paul Johnson. East Carolina can now dare to utter the letters “BCS.” That’s a lot of change for one Saturday.
We now have a record of 16-4 over the first two weeks. Granted, there been a lot of cupcakes served to this point but now we’re finally starting to play some big boy football.
The “exhibition games,” as Steve Spurrier used to call them, are just about over and not a moment too soon. So let’s just jump in to another Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Georgia (2-0) at South Carolina (1-1): On paper, Georgia should win this one by double digits. The Bulldogs are better at just about every position and they certainly have more firepower on offense. People point to last year’s win by South Carolina in Athens but that was before Knowshon Moreno became a star and opened up the entire offense. He only got 14 touches in that game. He’ll get that many in the first half on Saturday.
Logically, Georgia should win easily. But I just can’t shake the notion that this game is going to be close. The South Carolina defense is very good even though it gave up some points to Vanderbilt. It looks like Stephen Garcia, the star-crossed quarterback, might actually get in this game because The Ball Coach is running out of options trying to kick-start his offense. If WR Kenny McKinley can’t go for the Gamecocks, there is very little firepower there. Georgia wins, but it just isn’t going to be easy. Georgia 24, South Carolina 17.
2. Georgia Tech (2-0) at Virginia Tech (1-1): I have a feeling I am going to regret this pick but here it is: Virginia Tech (1-1), which lost to East Carolina in the opener, has its collective backs to the wall. The VT fans are actually getting testy with coach Frank Beamer on his radio show. Some of them think that after four straight seasons of 10 wins or more and two ACC championships, Beamer has suddenly forgot how to coach. So this is a rally the troops week in Blacksburg and I just get the feeling the Hokies are going to play well. But if Georgia Tech goes into that environment and wins its second straight conference road game, then I already have my ACC coach of the year. His name is Paul Johnson. Still, I’m going with the Hokies. Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 20.
3. Ohio State (2-0) at Southern Cal (1-0): I could be wrong but if USC quarterback Matt Sanchez stays healthy and plays the entire game, I don’t think this one will be close. The Trojans have all those weapons on offense, but I like the Trojans because of that scary defense that features Rey Maualuga, one of the best linebackers I have seen in a long time. Now comes word that Ohio State running back Beanie Wells (foot) will not be 100 percent and may not play at all. The Buckeyes’ only shot was to control the football with Wells and shorten the game. Unless freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor grows up in a hurry, Ohio State won’t have a lot of options. Southern Cal 28, Ohio State 17.
4. Auburn (2-0) at Miss. State (1-1): Auburn has found the quarterback that it wants to run Tony Franklin’s spread offense. Chris Todd completed 21 of 31 passes last week against Southern Mississippi and the offense, coach Tommy Tuberville told me this week, should get better every week. The Tigers will need to improve even more on Saturday against a Mississippi State team that beat Auburn a year ago. The Bulldogs (1-1) are getting better but won’t be able to keep pace with the fast tempo of the Auburn offense. Auburn sets the table for next week’s visit from LSU. Auburn 27, Miss. State 10.
5. N.C. State (1-1) at Clemson (1-1): The Tigers cleared their head of the post-Alabama hangover and took care of The Citadel 45-17 last week. But it will take more than a win over a Division I-AA team to prove that Clemson still deserves to be the ACC favorite. Clemson has won four straight over the Wolfpack and figures to make it five, which would tie its longest streak in the series. Understand that for Clemson this game, and the next two games with S.C. State and Maryland, are about getting ready for a crucial Oct. 9 (Thursday) trip to Wake Forest: Clemson 31, N.C. State 14.
6. UAB (0-2) at Tennessee (1-1): This is another set-up game. Florida comes to Knoxville next week and the Volunteers need wake up this Sunday feeling good about themselves. Tennessee and its coaching staff have been getting pretty beat up by the fans and media since losing at UCLA on Sept. 1. The only way to change the tone of that conversation is to dominate somebody and beat them pretty badly. UAB, which has given up 94 points in its first two games, should play that role well. Tennessee 45, UAB 13.
7. Wisconsin (2-0) at Fresno State (1-0): This is a big BCS buster game. If Fresno State, which hasn’t played since a 24-7 win over Rutgers on Sept. 1, can beat the Badgers, the Bulldogs jump in there with East Carolina as a leading candidate to crash the BCS party and receive an at-large bid. Wisconsin is ranked No. 10 but has yet to play a quality opponent. That will change today. Fresno State has 13 wins against BCS teams since 2000 and is 51-12 at home under coach Pat Hill. Fresno has too much speed for the slower team from the Big Ten. Fresno State 24, Wisconsin 20.
8. Western Kentucky (1-1) at Alabama (2-0): The Crimson Tide was less than impressive in last week’s 20-6 win over Tulane, but that was to be expected. Alabama was without two offensive linemen and the players had spent and entire week listening to people tell them how good they were. The tempo for Saturday’s game will be different as the Crimson Tide sets the table for next week’s SEC opener at Arkansas. Western Kentucky will also be without starting quarterback K.J. Black, who has a pulled hamstring. Alabama 45, Western Kentucky 10.
9. Navy (1-1) at Duke (1-1): It may not be two high-powered teams but this one is going to be entertaining and close. Paul Johnson is gone as coach but Navy is still leading the nation in rushing with an average of 452 yards on the ground in the first two games. Duke lost to Northwestern 24-20 last week after opening the season with a 31-7 win over James Madison. These are the kind of games you really must win if you’re Duke coach David Cutcliffe. Duke will not be outmanned in this game so execution will be the key. Duke 28, Navy 24.
10. Michigan (1-1) at Notre Dame (1-0): Here is everything you need to know about this game. San Diego State lost its opener, 29-27, to Cal Poly, a Division I-AA school from the Great West Conference. Last week San Diego State lost at Notre Dame 21-13. San Diego State coach Chuck Long was asked which team was better: Notre Dame or Cal Poly?
His response?
“That’s a tough question,” he said.
Has there ever been less buzz about a Notre Dame-Michigan game? Notre Dame gets the edge at home but it’s going to be ugly. Notre Dame 14, Michigan 13.
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