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Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Why the SEC media picked Florida and not Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Georgia is getting a lot of love in the national media to be No. 1, 2 or 3 in the preseason polls. But last week at SEC media days Florida got 36 votes to win the conference championship while Georgia got only 18. So what’s up with that?
My evidence is only anecdotal but, based on some conversations in Birmingham, here is my theory as to why there seems to be a disconnect between the national media and the SEC media when it comes to Georgia.
1. A lot of national media saw Georgia beat Hawaii-and fell in love: Most of the national college football writers and broadcasters came to New Orleans early to get ready for the BCS championship game. So they were in the Superdome and watched the Bulldogs just totally destroy undefeated Hawaii on Jan. 1 in the Sugar Bowl. Now Hawaii wasn’t a very good team by SEC standards and Georgia’s defensive coaches knew going in that the Warriors’ offensive line couldn’t block them. Georgia was very impressive that night and that carried over into the post-spring rankings. Georgia was somebody new with an impressive coach, great talent, and fun to watch.
But….
2. The SEC media knows how tough this league really is: Because they see SEC games week in and week out, they know how hard Georgia’s schedule really is. In my spring rankings I had Florida, Auburn, LSU, and Tennessee in my top 15. Georgia plays all four of those teams in a six-week period and only one of those games (Tennessee) is in Athens. Georgia is good enough to beat all four of those teams on a given week. But playing all four in six weeks, goes the logic, is too much even for the best of teams.
3. The Tebow factor: Quarterback Tim Tebow was such a big part of Florida’s offense last season but he was banged up against the Bulldogs when the two teams met in Jacksonville. I personally think Georgia would have won the game anyway because they were playing at a very high level that day and had a much better defense. But this season Tebow will be surrounded by many more weapons. Bottom line: Florida led the SEC in scoring last season at 42.5 points per game (38.1 in conference games). This offense is significantly better. If Florida’s defense improves just a little bit, teams will have to score at least 40 points to beat the Gators.
4. Florida’s SEC road schedule: Because the Nov. 1 game in Jacksonville is Florida’s away game this season, the Gators have only three true SEC road trips (Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt). Conversely, Georgia’s four road SEC games are South Carolina, LSU, Kentucky, and Auburn. That’s a huge advantage in this league.
5. Gators will have mental edge: A lot-too much in fact-was made of Georgia’s storming the end zone in last year’s game in Jacksonville. That’s not why Georgia won. The Bulldogs won because they lined up and smacked Florida in the mouth and the Gators aren’t used to getting shoved around like that. So the theory goes that Florida will come up with a little something extra come Nov. 1.
Now how much of this do I buy? I believe No. 2 and No. 4 because of the cumulative impact of playing such a tough schedule. It becomes a physical and mental factor when you get to November. The schedule that a team plays and the sequence of those games is a huge factor in this league.
I don’t buy the mental edge idea for a minute. Georgia has been dominated in this series 15-3 since Steve Spurrier came to Florida in 1990. There will be a lot of unresolved issues when we get to Nov. 1. Motivation won’t be one of them.
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