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November 2007
Tennessee will upset LSU
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We went 8-2 last week and the two games we missed (Arkansas-LSU and Tennessee-Kentucky) were decided by a combined four points in seven overtimes. That gives us a record of 87-43 for what has been a very wild and whacky season.
So let’s hope to close it out strong with our Final Fearless Friday Forecast of 2007:
1. SEC championship: Tennessee vs. LSU: If you’re judging this game on sheer talent, then LSU is your winner. But there is a lot going on at LSU off the field and much of it is not good. QB Matt Flynn has a bad shoulder. He may play but he may not last. Head coach Les Miles is going to be interviewed by Michigan next week. Defensive coordinator Bo Pelini may soon be the head coach at Nebraska. Tennessee, which has survived four SEC elimination games since Oct. 27, feels pretty confident. If Tennessee doesn’t give up the big play on defense, I like the Vols in an upset. Tennessee 21, LSU 20.
2. ACC championship: Virginia Tech vs. Boston College: BC quarterback Matt Ryan rallied the troops to a 14-10 victory at Blacksburg back on Oct. 25 but Virginia Tech is a much better football team now. The Hokies have figured out how to use two quarterbacks-Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. Running back Brandon Ore is finally healthy and that makes the whole offense better. Linebacker Vince Hall is back in the lineup from injury and so the defense is playing well. The Hokies win and go to the Orange Bowl, where they will probably have a rematch of last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl with Georgia. Virginia Tech 24, Boston College 17.
3. Big 12 championship: Missouri vs. Oklahoma: Missouri is No. 1 in the BCS and a win Saturday night puts the Tigers into the national championship game. This is a really fun team to watch with QB Chase Daniel running the spread offense. WR Jeremy Maclin (69 catches) is one of the best all-purpose players in college football. But Oklahoma, which lost its chance to play for the national championship by losing to Texas Tech on Nov. 17, is playing well now that QB Sam Bradford is healthy again. Missouri’s dream ends on Saturday night in San Antonio. Oklahoma 31, Missouri 21.
4. Pittsburgh at West Virginia: No. 2 West Virginia has already locked up the Big East championship, but a win in the 100th “Backyard Brawl” puts the Mountaineers in the BCS title game. The Mountaineers are a 28-point favorite at home and are playing well. This one will not be close. West Virginia 42, Pittsburgh 14.
5. Washington at Hawaii: All the Warriors (11-0) have to do is beat the struggling Huksies (4-8) to lock up a spot in the BCS, probably in the Sugar Bowl. As a Pac-10 team, Washington has more athletes than Hawaii has seen this season. Washington is 1-4 against ranked opponents this season. This game doesn’t start until 11:30 p.m., Eastern Time. But sometime early Sunday morning, Hawaii will start making travel plans to New Orleans. Hawaii 31, Washington 14.
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Will Auburn get deal done with Tuberville?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the last weekend of the regular season:
1. Is Auburn going to get a deal done with Tuberville? After beating Alabama for the sixth straight year and with an opening for a head coach at Arkansas and perhaps another one at LSU, you could say that Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville is dealing from a position of strength. But negotiations haven’t gone all that smoothly. Tuberville wants more money for his assistants, who are underpaid compared to those at Alabama. He also wants an indoor practice facility, which is something Alabama has as well. If he is expected to compete with Alabama, Tuberville needs to be close to an equal footing with the Crimson Tide in these areas. Auburn’s new proposal is supposed to come by Saturday. Tuberville will have until Dec. 31 to accept it.
2. Can a two-loss team get to the BCS championship? Probably not but the argument would sure be fun to watch. The only way to open that door would be for both No. 1 Missouri and No. 2 West Virginia to lose on Saturday. Missouri might lose to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game, but West Virginia is a 28-point favorite over Pittsburgh at home. But if it happens, and everybody else who plays on Saturday wins, you will see the mother of all PR campaigns late Saturday night among Georgia, Virginia Tech, LSU, Southern Cal, and Oklahoma. And what about 11-1 Kansas?
3. How bad is Matt Flynn’s shoulder? The LSU quarterback reportedly took some snaps in Wednesday’s practice but I hear that backup Ryan Perrilloux is getting a lot of work because, even if Flynn can go, he may not last long against the Tennessee defense on the artificial turf of the Georgia Dome. Perrilloux is an incredible talent but for every great play he makes, he usually makes at least one that will put the LSU defense in bad field position.
4. When does Arkansas play Ole Miss in 2008? Glad you asked. The game will be on Oct. 25 in Fayetteville, where I’m sure new Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt will be welcomed with open arms. It will be as much fun as the first time Auburn’s Tommy Tuberville went back to Ole Miss. He won, by the way.
5. Does Hawaii still get a BCS bid if it loses? The No. 12 Warriors (11-0) won’t be done with Washington (11:30 p.m. start) until the wee hours of Sunday morning. If Hawaii wins, it’s a no-brainer. It will go to the Sugar Bowl. But if the Warriors lose will one of the BCS bowls take them just to keep peace with the non-BCS conferences?
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Tech needs style, but it also needs substance
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
1. Georgia Tech needs sizzle, but it also needs the steak: After his press conference on Monday, it’s clear that AD Dan Radakovich wants some excitement in his new head coach. That’s fine and understandable as he tries to market Georgia Tech football to a wider audience. But he’s not hiring a used car salesman. He’s hiring a head football coach.
Radakovich needs somebody who can do more than entertain boosters and generate money. Hey, Ed Orgeron was entertaining and you saw how well that worked out. Georgia Tech needs a ball coach who can recruit and develop quarterbacks, among other things. Style will get you through the press conference and the first round of booster meetings. Then substance becomes a lot more important.
2. Tech needs to be careful with Jon Tenuta: If the Tech defensive coordinator is not the next head coach, then who is hired is extremely important if the school wants to keep Tenuta. It’s just my opinion, but I don’t see Tenuta sticking around if Georgia Tech hires an assistant from another school instead of a proven head coach. If Tech wanted to hire a top assistant, why wouldn’t they hire him?
3. The ACC championship game will be moving to Charlotte: If they don’t have a sellout this Saturday with Boston College and Virginia Tech in Jacksonville, look for the ACC to make an announcement that the game will be moving. There is tremendous pressure on the ACC office to at least try the game in Charlotte if attendance sags for the second straight year. Look for the game to rotate among several cities including Charlotte, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando. The ACC would love to have its game in Atlanta, but the city will do nothing to strain its relationship with the SEC.
4. Arkansas football is in trouble: Houston Nutt got fed up with parts of the Hog fan base who think Arkansas is Florida and believe that the transfer of a teenage quarterback is grounds for dismissal. So, after the beating the No. 1 team the nation with a player (Darren McFadden) who may win the Heisman Trophy, Nutt took a big chunk of Arkansas’s money and headed off to Ole Miss, where he will take the players recruited by Orgeron and will be successful sooner rather than later. Who will Arkansas hire? If it’s Mike Leach from Texas Tech, that will be fun. Arkansas may not win a lot of games, but at least those fans will finally get the wide open offense they so desperately want.
5. Ditto for Southern Mississippi: Jeff Bower, a Roswell native, was the head coach at Southern Mississippi for 17 years. He had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken the Golden Eagles to bowls 10 of the last 11 years. He’s had chances to leave but stuck with Southern Miss. And Monday he was forced out. The fan base was supposedly splintered and wanted someone new. Winning consistently at that level of football is not easy. Those Southern Miss fans will get something new and they probably won’t like it.
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Don’t book those flights to Pasadena just yet, Dawg fans
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Here is the latest bowl buzz:
**—Don’t book those flights to Pasadena just yet, Georgia fans. Word out of Los Angeles is that if the Rose Bowl loses Ohio State to the BCS championship game, there is going to be a big argument on the Tournament of Roses committee. Part of the committee will want to take Georgia, which could be ranked as high as No. 3, to create a dream match up of Georgia-Southern Cal.
But there are some very strong members on the committee who want to keep the traditional match-up between the Big Ten and Pac-10 and thus take Illinois (9-3), which will be eligible if it gets to No. 14 in the BCS (it is currently 15). Trust me when I tell you that there is no group on Planet Earth that is more buttoned down and locked into tradition than the Tournament of Roses committee. It would totally consistent for them to pass on the No. 3 team in the nation to take a Big Ten team ranked No. 14.
**—If Illinois goes to the Rose Bowl, that will break the heart of the Capital One Bowl in Orlando, which is salivating at the possibility of an Illinois-Florida game on Jan. 1 in Orlando. Ron Zook would be going against the school that fired him three years ago. How bad would the Zooker want to win that game?
**—The Gator Bowl has the option to pass on a Big East team and take a team from the Big 12. It will invoke that option and choose Texas Tech (8-4) to play an ACC team on Jan. 1. The Big East will send a team to fill the Big 12 spot in the Sun Bowl. That team will be South Florida (9-3), which will play Oregon or Oregon State.
**—The Orange Bowl had discussions on what the political fallout would be if it took No. 10 Florida (9-3) instead of Georgia (10-2) as an at-large team, particularly if Boston College won the ACC championship. If Virginia Tech wins the ACC the Orange would face a Virginia Tech-Georgia rematch. The two teams played in the Chick-fil-A Bowl last season. There are a bunch of Gators on that selection committee and they know they’ll get a sellout with Florida, especially if Tim Tebow wins the Heisman Trophy. The discussion became moot when Georgia reached No. 4 in the BCS standings, which means the Bulldogs are an automatic pick and nobody in the BCS can take Florida.
**—This is just one man’s opinion, but if Virginia Tech wins the ACC championship, it looks like Clemson (9-3) will go to the Chick-fil-A Bowl to play Auburn (8-4), Virginia (9-3) will go to the Gator Bowl to play Texas Tech (8-4), and Boston College (10-2) will go to the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando to play Michigan (8-4).
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This was Richt’s best coaching job ever
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. This is Mark Richt’s best coaching job ever: When this season started, I thought Georgia was an eight-win team AT BEST. The Bulldogs were going to have a very young, but talented, offensive line. There were tons of holes on the defense. I had my doubts about the wide receivers. And after the 35-14 loss at Tennessee on Oct. 6, Georgia looked like a team that would kind of stumble to the finish. Instead, Georgia is sprinting to a BCS game with world-class speed and, if it wins, will be highest ranked SEC team come January. Great coaches grow and adapt and are willing to shake things up. This season Mark Richt became a great coach.
2. There is a reason non-conference winners can play for the BCS championship: Like a lot of people, I wanted the BCS to make a rule that only conference champions could play for the BCS title. What you see in Georgia (10-2), now No. 4, is why the BCS decided not to invoke that rule. Georgia lost both of its conference games by the first week in October and then turned into a really good team in the second half of the season. How would Georgia fans feel if their Dawgs finished No. 2 and couldn’t play in the big game because of that rule?
3. You have to give Fulmer his props: There were a lot of Tennessee fans who didn’t want the Volunteers to get on a roll because they wanted Phillip Fulmer out as head football coach. Now Fulmer is playing for the SEC championship and has a decent chance to win against a dispirited team from LSU. Fulmer, like the old offensive lineman that he is, just kept his head down and kept coaching his staff and his team. You may not like the guy’s style, but you have to respect what he has done in the second half of this season.
4. The Heisman is down to Tebow and McFadden: If I had a vote, which I don’t any more, this would be a very close call. Tim Tebow’s numbers are unprecedented in the history of the SEC. And I don’t want to hear that garbage of not voting for him because he’s a sophomore. But Darren McFadden’s performance in beating No. 1 LSU in Baton Rouge was the stuff of legends. I can’t wait to see the final numbers.
5. Ohio State does not want to play West Virginia: That is what will happen, I believe, if Oklahoma beats Missouri for the Big 12 championship. You saw what Illinois did to Ohio State with a mobile quarterback. West Virginia’s Pat White is faster and he’s got a lot of weapons around him. Ohio State could get embarrassed in the BCS championship game for the second straight year.
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BCS bowl projections for the Bulldogs
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After losses last week by No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Kansas, and No. 6 Arizona State, Georgia (10-2) jumped from No. 7 to No. 4 in the BCS standings released Sunday.
By rule Georgia’s No. 4 ranking, if it holds, guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in one of the BCS bowls.
Here is everything you need to know about the BCS and where Georgia could play as we head to the last week of the regular season. Note that the Bulldogs cannot play in the Sugar Bowl.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP
When: Jan. 7, 2008, 8 p.m. (FOX)
Likely opponent: Ohio State (11-1), the Big Ten champion
How it happens: This is a long shot at best for Georgia. But if No. 1 Missouri loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship and No. 2 West Virginia loses at home to Pittsburgh (4-7), then No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Georgia could move up into the big game.
ROSE BOWL
When: Jan. 1, 2008, 5:10 p.m. (ABC)
Likely opponent: Southern Cal (9-2) if the Trojans beat UCLA on Saturday
How it happens: Because the Rose loses one of its host teams (Ohio State) to the BCS championship game, it goes to the front of the line on Selection Sunday. After looking at the pool of at-large teams, it chooses Georgia (10-2), one of the hottest teams in college football.
ORANGE BOWL
When: Jan. 3, 2008, 8 p.m. (FOX)
Likely opponent: ACC champion (Virginia Tech or Boston College)
How it happens: The Rose bowl will get to pick first because it had to replace one of its host teams (Ohio State). If the Rose passes on Georgia to take Kansas (11-1) or Hawaii (12-0) or even Illinois (9-3), then the Orange is next in line and would be expected to take Georgia.
FIESTA BOWL
When: Jan. 2, 2008, 8 p.m. (FOX)
Likely opponent: Big 12 champion if it’s Oklahoma.
How it happens: The Rose Bowl passes on Georgia to take Kansas, Missouri, Hawaii or Illinois. The Orange Bowl passes on the Bulldogs to take Arizona State or Kansas. The Fiesta Bowl has always liked SEC teams because their fans travel so well and they are very competitive. Also, if Missouri wins the Big 12 and goes to the BCS championship game, the Fiesta could look at Georgia as its replacement pick.
Congrats, Dawgs: UK will beat Vols
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After a 4-6 disaster two weeks ago, we bounced back with a record of 7-3 last week. The three losses came because:
— I thought Michigan’s Lloyd Carr had one great game left in him against Ohio State. Nope. Now he’s retired.
— I didn’t know that Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford would get hurt and the Sooners would lose a gold-plated opportunity to play for the national championship.
— I finally thought Clemson was ready to win a big game at home and play for the ACC championship. Boston College and Matty (Ice) Ryan had other plans.
That puts is at 79-41 with two weeks left in the regular season. So in the spirit of Thanksgiving we present another …
Fearless Friday Forecast
1. Tennessee at Kentucky: You know it’s been a crazy season because this is the third big national game to be played at Commonwealth Stadium this season. If Tennessee (8-3) wins the Vols go to the SEC championship game. If Kentucky wins, the Wildcats (7-4) break a 22-game losing streak to the Vols, give their seniors a day to remember, and send Georgia to the SEC championship. Tennessee has been good at home, not so good on the road. We like Andre Woodson against that Tennessee secondary. Kentucky 31, Tennessee 24.
2. Alabama at Auburn: There are so many reasons to like Auburn in this game. The Tigers had last week off and this time of year that kind of rest can be as good as gold. Meanwhile, Alabama hit rock bottom last week with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Auburn is playing at home with a chance to make history. Alabama and Auburn started playing football against each other in 1893. In all that time Auburn has never beaten Alabama six straight times—until Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn 21, Alabama 13.
3. Arkansas at LSU (Friday, 2:30 p.m., CBS): Conventional wisdom says that Arkansas, with its great tailback combo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, can make a run at the nation’s No. 1 team. But LSU’s defense has the ability to slow down the run and force Arkansas to pass, something it doesn’t do well. The Razorbacks will hang in there for a half. But LSU and see the finish line that includes next week’s SEC championship game and, if they win it, the BCS title game in New Orleans. The Tigers are ready to sprint: LSU 31, Arkansas 17.
4. Florida State at Florida: The Gators can’t get to the SEC championship game but they are still in the mix for a BCS at-large bid if they can take care of business today against the state rival. This is a big-time recruiting game that is going to be played at a very high level. Florida wins and Tim Tebow wraps up the Heisman Trophy. Florida 31, Florida State 20.
5. Clemson at South Carolina: Neither team is real happy but both desperately need to win this game. The Gamecocks (6-5) have lost four straight and have to win or risk not going to a bowl. Clemson was in position to win the ACC Atlantic last week but fell to Boston College. This is a quality of life game for coach Tommy Bowden. Clemson 28, South Carolina 24.
6. Virginia Tech at Virginia: This one is for all the marbles in the ACC Coastal. Virginia (9-2) gets the edge if the game is close. The Cavaliers have won three games by one point and two games by two points. The problem is, this game is not going to be close because the Virginia Tech defense will force turnovers. Virginia Tech 28, Virginia 14.
7. Connecticut at West Virginia: This one is for the Big East championship and an automatic bid to the BCS. This is the biggest game in Connecticut’s football history. No. 3 West Virginia still has a chance to win the national championship. The Huskies (9-2) have had a nice season but they won’t be able to run with the Mountaineers on a chilly Saturday in Morgantown. West Virginia 31, Connecticut 17.
8. Kansas vs. Missouri (Kansas City): This is a big time rivalry in basketball. But they have never met in football with this much at stake as the winner goes to the Big 12 championship game. Kansas (11-0) is a good team but the Jayhawks have played a light schedule. Missouri (10-1) has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Chase Daniel and has a quality win over Illinois (40-34). Missouri 28, Kansas 24.
9. Boise State at Hawaii (tonight, 9 p.m., ESPN2): WAC Commissioner Karl Benson believes the winner of this game deserves a spot as an at-large team in the BCS. Hawaii (10-0), currently ranked No. 15, has the best shot if they can finally find a way to beat No. 19 Boise State (9-1), last season’s Cinderella team. Hawaii has dropped six straight games to Boise State. A victory would give Hawaii and coach June Jones their first outright WAC title. Boise State is looking for its sixth straight conference championship. Hawaii gets it done on the island. Hawaii 35, Boise State 31.
10. Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: Oklahoma (9-2) saw its hopes of winning a national championship come to an end last Saturday with a loss to Texas Tech. But the Sooners can still win the Big 12 championship if they can beat their state rival in Norman. After getting his bell rung last week in Lubbock, QB Sam Bradford has been cleared to play. If he can go the distance, this one might not be close. Oklahoma 31, Oklahoma State 21.
Will Georgia focus on the task at hand?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I would tell you what I’m thankful for but Bisher covered that for all of us this morning.
So just let me say that I am thankful for Furman Bisher.
I’m also thankful for you ladies and gentlemen, even when you tell me I’m not very smart. Of course Mrs. Barnhart set me straight on that matter some time ago.
Here are five burning questions as we head into the weekend.
1. Will Georgia focus on the task at hand? When Georgia kicks off against Georgia Tech on Saturday, the Tennessee-Kentucky game will probably be somewhere in the third quarter. Coach Mark Richt will have the unenviable task of keeping his team focused on the Yellow Jackets and not what is going on up in Lexington, Ky. Once that game is over and Georgia knows its fate, the Bulldogs will settle down. But can they take care of business before hearing the final score from Kentucky?
2. Will Alabama show up at Auburn? Alabama will be there in body, but will they be there in spirit? Or have the veteran players packed it in? Knowing what I know about this game, the answer is no. It just means too much, particularly to the kids who grow up in Alabama. Bill Curry once told me that motivation was never a problem when he was the head coach at Alabama because wearing that Crimson jersey meant so much to his players. Nick Saban had better hope Curry is right.
3. Is Arizona State for real? Say what you want about Dennis Erickson but the man can coach football. He inherited a group of players who had been 7-6 and 7-5 the past two seasons and is now two victories away from the Rose Bowl. We’ll find out tonight how good the Sun Devils (9-1) are when they host Southern Cal (8-2). The Trojans have figured some things out and are playing well now. They can also get to the Rose Bowl.
4. Is this it for Coach Fran? Texas A&M (6-5) hosts Texas on Friday and a loss would give Dennis Franchione a five-year record of 1-9 against Oklahoma and Texas. The Aggies would be 18-22 in the Big 12 under Coach Fran. Combine that with the indiscretion of selling inside information to big-money boosters, and you must believe AD Bill Byrne will make a change.
5. What will Tim Tebow do? A long time ago Jim Croce told us you don’t tug on Superman’s cape. The Florida quarterback is not Superman but he’s pretty good. And when he’s challenged, Tebow is even better. Florida State linebacker Geno Hayes decided to call Tebow out this week, fully knowing that he was going to The Swamp. Good luck, Mr. Hayes, but know this: If Florida gets the chance to hang a big number on you and the Seminoles this Saturday, they will. Urban Meyer will not take his foot off the gas.
For Gailey, it shouldn’ t come down to Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
1. For Gailey, it shouldn’t come down to Georgia: If Georgia Tech AD Dan Radakovich wants a new football coach, it is certainly his right to make that change. But the outcome of Saturday’s game with Georgia should not be the determining factor in the decision. Either Gailey is the right man to lead your football program or he’s not. An additional 60 minutes of football should not tip the scales either way. It’s not fair to Gailey and it’s certainly not fair to put that burden on Georgia Tech’s players.
2. LSU is pulling for Tennessee: In no way am I showing a lack of respect for Tennessee. What Phillip Fulmer has done with his team since losing to Alabama (41-17) on Oct. 20 has been very impressive. But I’m telling you that LSU doesn’t want any part of Georgia in the Georgia Dome in next week’s SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs hit the daily double on Saturday, which means beating Tech AND getting to the SEC championship game, they are going to be pretty geeked up to play the Tigers.
3. Saban’s worst fears have come true: Yes, Nick Saban did go over the top when he used the 9/11 reference concerning Alabama’s loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Coaches go over the top all the time. He shouldn’t have done it but the point is this: Going into this season, Saban was concerned how this team would react when things got tough. And after the Crimson Tide lost to LSU on Nov. 3, this team simply had no bounce back, no toughness. It could be the veteran players have tuned Saban out. If so, that does not bode well for Saturday’s game at Auburn.
4. Tuberville will stay at Auburn: The Tommy Tuberville to Texas A&M talk has been going on for a while and there is no doubt that the Aggies will pick up the phone if they cut Coach Fran loose after Friday’s game with Texas. But I’m hearing that the money guys at Auburn have determined that they’ll do what’s necessary to keep Tubs right where he is. That means a new contract, more money for his assistants, and some facility improvements will be moved to the front burner.
5. Michigan’s first call won’t be to Miles: Everybody assumes that Michigan will immediately turn to LSU’s Les Miles to replace Lloyd Carr. I think that if Michigan offers the job, Miles will take it. He’s a Michigan man and, as Bo Schembechler once said, Michigan SHOULD be coached by a Michigan man. But I’m not convinced that the first phone call will go to Miles. And if Michigan does call, when would Miles take the job? Would he walk away from a national championship game to start recruiting for the Wolverines? I don’t think so.
Trying to project the BCS bowls
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
To project the BCS bowls two weeks before the end of the regular season, you have to make a few assumptions. That is always a dangerous thing, particularly in this whacky season.
But here are two sets of BCS projections, one with No. 1 LSU winning the SEC championship game and another with either Georgia or Tennessee winning the SEC title. All other conference champions are projected except for Ohio State, which clinched the Big Ten title last Saturday.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
These teams receive automatic bids to the BCS:
•ACC: Virginia Tech (11-2) beats Virginia and then beats Boston College in ACC championship game.
•SEC: LSU (12-1) beats Arkansas and then Georgia/Tennessee in SEC championship game.
•Big East: West Virginia (11-1) beats Connecticut and Pitt.
•Big Ten: Ohio State (11-1) has clinched Big Ten.
•Big 12: Oklahoma (11-2) beats Kansas in the Big 12 championship game.
•Pac-10: Southern Cal (10-2) wins its last two games with Arizona State and UCLA and Oregon loses at least one without QB Dennis Dixon.
AT-LARGE POOL
To be in the at-large pool, a team must have nine wins AND finish in the Top 14 of the BCS Standings. One conference may not have more than two teams in BCS games.
•Kansas (11-1): Loses to Oklahoma in Big 12 championship.
•Missouri (10-2): Loses to Kansas this Saturday.
•Arizona State (10-2): Loses to Southern Cal this Thursday but beats Arizona.
•Georgia (10-2): Beats Georgia Tech but does not get to SEC championship.
•Florida (9-3): Beats Florida State to finish in Top 12.
•Texas (10-2): Beats Texas A&M on Friday.
•Hawaii (12-0): Beats Boise State and Washington.
BCS GAMES IF LSU WINS SEC
•BCS Championship: LSU vs. West Virginia.
•How it happened: LSU stays at No. 1 after winning the SEC championship. No. 2 Kansas loses to Oklahoma and West Virginia moves into the No. 2 position.
•Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii
•How it happened: Because the Sugar lost the SEC champ to the BCS title game, it gets to pick first from the at-large pool. The Sugar takes Georgia, one of the hottest teams in the land. The Sugar also picks last because New Orleans is hosting the BCS. championship game. It picks Hawaii to play the Dawgs.
•Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Texas/Kansas
•How it happened: Virginia Tech would be an automatic as the ACC champ. The Orange would choose between Kansas and Texas. This would be a tough decision because Texas has a stronger TV appeal.
•Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
•How it happened: As the Big 12 champ, Oklahoma is an automatic to the Fiesta. The hometown Arizona State Sun Devils are sitting there at 10-2. It’s a no-brainer.
•Rose: Ohio State and Southern Cal.
•How it happened: If the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs aren’t in the big game, they automatically go to the Rose.
BCS GAMES IF GEORGIA/TENNESSEE WINS SEC
•BCS Championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
•How it happened: Both No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Kansas get beat on Dec. 1. That moves No. 3 West Virginia and No. 4 Ohio State up and into the national championship game. Georgia (11-2) gets squeezed out and finishes at No. 3.
•Sugar Bowl: Georgia/Tennessee vs. Hawaii
•How it happened: Georgia/Tennessee goes to the Sugar Bowl as the SEC champion and faces Colt Brennan and the high-flying Hawaii offense.
•Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Texas/Kansas
•How it happened: Nothing changes for the Orange, which wants to take Texas but will feel pressure to take Kansas.
•Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
•How it happened: Nothing changes for the boys in Tempe.
•Rose: Southern Cal vs. LSU
•How it happened: Because the Rose lost Ohio State to the BCS championship game, it gets to pick first from the at-large pool. It surveys the landscape and decides to take LSU at 11-2. When it appeared the Tigers were headed to Pasadena last season, their fans pre-purchased over 45,000 tickets. LSU ended up in the Sugar, but the folks at the Tournament of Roses haven’t forgotten that gesture.
Breaking down the conference races
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s Thanksgiving Week so let’s change things up a bit. Here is a quick look at the major conference races with two weeks to go:
ACC: Boston College (9-2) is in the conference championship game as the Atlantic Division winner regardless of how it fares Saturday against Miami. The winner of Saturday’s game between Virginia Tech (9-2) and Virginia (9-2) in Charlottesville will be the Coastal Division winner and provide the opposition in Jacksonville.
SEC: LSU (10-1) has clinched the Western Division but still has a tough game with Arkansas on Friday in Baton Rouge. If Tennessee (8-3) wins at Kentucky on Saturday, the Vols will also be in Atlanta. If Tennessee loses, Georgia will face LSU at the Georgia Dome on Dec. 1.
BIG EAST: The winner of Saturday’s game between West Virginia (9-1) and Connecticut (9-2) at Morgantown will clinch the championship.
BIG TEN: Ohio State (11-1) won the championship and at least a trip to the Rose Bowl by beating Michigan 14-3.
BIG 12: The winner of Saturday’s game between Kansas (11-0) and Missouri (10-1) in Kansas City will clinch the North Division. It’s much more complicated in the South. Oklahoma (9-2, 5-2) can clinch by beating Oklahoma State on Saturday in Norman. But if Oklahoma loses and Texas (9-2, 5-2) beats Texas A&M on Friday, then the Longhorns win the division. If Oklahoma and Texas both lose, there will be a three-way tie with Oklahoma State (6-5, 4-3) and the highest ranked team in the BCS wins the division.
PAC-10: Arizona (9-1, 6-1), Oregon (8-2, 5-2), and Southern Cal (8-2, 5-2) are all in the mix with two games left. Arizona State is alone in first place and can go to the Rose Bowl (at least) by beating Southern Cal at home on Thursday and Arizona on Dec. 1 in Phoenix. Without QB Dennis Dixon, who suffered a knee injury, it will be hard for Oregon to win its last two games with UCLA and Oregon State. But if the Ducks do, and there is a three-way tie with Arizona State and Southern Cal, the Ducks win the tiebreaker because they beat both during the regular season. Southern Cal needs two wins against Arizona State and UCLA plus a loss by Oregon.
Tony’s top Saturday storylines
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The AJC’s viewer’s guide to the day in college football
Vols aim at East
For the second consecutive week Tennessee (7-3, 4-2) faces an elimination game in the SEC East. This time it’s against Vanderbilt (5-5, 2-5), and the stakes are clear. If Tennessee loses Saturday at home, where it’s 6-0 this season, and Georgia beats Kentucky, the Bulldogs go to the SEC championship game. If Tennessee beats the Commodores, it would go to Atlanta with a win on Nov. 24 at Kentucky.
Coach Phillip Fulmer said he was unusually blunt with his players this week.
“I told them you can be smart or you can be stupid; you can be mature or you can be immature,” Fulmer said. “They have been a pretty good listening football team for most of the year.”
Croom happy but not satisfied
With wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Alabama this season, you might think that Mississippi State coach Sylvester Croom is satisfied with his team (6-4, 3-3). You can think that, but you’d be wrong.
In his fourth season, Croom has turned a corner in Starkville. His team is knocking on the door to respectability. Now they want to kick the sucker down by beating Arkansas Saturday and Ole Miss on Friday in Starkville to finish 8-4.
“Nobody is going to give us anything. We have to work for it,” Croom said.
LSU aims to stay on top vs. Ole Miss
Once upon a time, the LSU-Ole Miss rivalry was one of the best in Southern college football. Billy Cannon’s 89-yard punt return against Ole Miss in 1959 is one of a handful of moments that define the sport.
There will be no such moment Saturday.
LSU (9-1, 5-1) is back at No. 1 in the BCS standings and has already locked up a spot in the SEC championship game. What’s at stake today against Ole Miss (3-7, 0-6) and Friday against Arkansas is the opportunity to play for the BCS national championship.
“We understand that we will get their best shot, and we look forward to that,” LSU coach Les Miles said.
Auburn looms for Crimson Tide
It’s been a tough two weeks for Alabama (6-4, 4-3). On Nov. 3, the Crimson Tide was playing for first place in the SEC West but lost a heartbreaker to No. 1 LSU (41-34). Last week, Alabama made too many mistakes and lost in an upset at Mississippi State (17-12). Saturday is Senior Day in Tuscaloosa as Alabama faces Louisiana-Monroe. But don’t kid yourself. Today’s game is merely the tuneup for the biggest game of the year next Saturday at Auburn.
“As a team, we need to look forward. We don’t need to look in the rearview mirror,” coach Nick Saban said. “We have a two-game season coming up with Louisiana-Monroe and our next game.”
Tebow back in Heisman hunt?
The only question about Saturday’s game between Florida (7-3, 5-3) and Florida Atlantic is this: At the end of the day, what will Tim Tebow’s numbers be?
The sophomore quarterback put himself right back into the Heisman Trophy race last week with seven touchdowns (five running, two passing) and 524 yards of offense in a 51-31 win over South Carolina.
Coach Urban Meyer said that he wouldn’t leave Tebow in the game to pad his stats and increase his Heisman chances.
Bowden back in familiar place
This summer Clemson coach Tommy Bowden joked about his perennial occupancy on college football’s hot seat.
“Been here nine years. On the hot seat about seven. That seems about right,” Bowden said.
Bowden was back on that hot seat when Clemson lost to Georgia Tech (13-3) and Virginia Tech (41-23) and were 2-2 in the ACC in mid-October.
But if Clemson (8-2, 5-2) can beat Boston College (8-2, 4-2) Saturday night at Death Valley, the Tigers will go to the ACC championship game.
“We’ve seen how quickly a season can change in your favor,” Bowden said. “It can turn back the other way just as quickly.”
Va. Tech says Miami is still Miami
Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer knows that his team (8-2, 5-1) is in a weird place Saturday against Miami (5-5, 2-4) in Blacksburg. Miami is coming off one of the worst performances in school history — a 48-0 loss to Virginia. Even if Virginia Tech loses, it will still go to the ACC championship game if it beats Virginia (9-2, 6-1) next week.
Beamer said that despite last week’s game, Miami is still Miami.
“They are just a scary, talented football team,” Beamer said.
ND ghosts worry Duke’s coach
When you’re 1-9, you’ll take anything to salvage a season. That is what Duke (1-9, 0-7) is facing Saturday when it goes to Notre Dame (1-9).
Duke coach Ted Roof entered this season on a 20-game losing streak, so his future in Durham is anything but secure. But he would certainly like this group of players to have at least one good memory of the 2007 season.
“We certainly have a lot of respect for their program, but I don’t want their past history to make any tackles or score any touchdowns,” Roof said. “I want our guys to focus on their assignments, not their great tradition.”
Terps, recruiting Bowden’s focus
Just when it appeared Florida State (6-4, 3-4) was getting things turned around, the Seminoles got spanked by Virginia Tech (40-21) on Saturday. But coach Bobby Bowden says his team has a lot of play for Saturday when it hosts Maryland (5-5, 2-4) on Senior Day at Doak Campbell Stadium.
“We need to win the ballgame and finish the season up strong and go out and recruit and get some more players,” Bowden said.
Maryland has won two of its past three games with Florida State.
The Big One a battle for Rose
Needless to say, last Saturday’s losses by Ohio State and Michigan have taken the bloom off Saturday’s game in Ann Arbor.
But it’s still Ohio State-Michigan, and a Big Ten championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl are on the line. And for Michigan (8-3, 6-1 Big Ten), which started the season with a loss to Appalachian State, a trip to the Rose Bowl would be sweet.
“I’m very proud of the way this team has fought and competed,” Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said. “They have put themselves into a position where they are not only playing for the greatest rivalry in sport, they’re playing for a championship. They’re playing for the Rose Bowl.”
Big 12 teams get help from Arizona
There’s no doubt Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops called his brother, Mike, late Thursday to say two things: Congratulations and thanks, Bro.
Arizona’s 34-24 upset of No. 2 Oregon marked the fifth No. 2 team in seven weeks to go down. It also opened the door for the Big 12 champion to reach the BCS championship game.
No. 3 Kansas (10-0) and No. 5 Missouri (9-1) will meet next Saturday in Kansas City. If No. 4 Oklahoma (9-1) wins at Texas Tech Saturday and clinches the South Division, the Sooners will play the Kansas-Missouri winner for the Big 12 championship on Dec. 1.
If LSU beats Ole Miss Saturday, those three Big 12 teams will be ranked 2-3-4 in the new BCS standings. The winner of their two-week round robin will likely be no worse than No. 2 when the BCS title game is set on Dec. 2.
The Fearless Friday Forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Man, am I hurtin’ today.
It was just a brutal week for your humble correspondent, who was 4-6.
I didn’t believe in the power of Georgia’s black jerseys.
I didn’t believe that Tennessee could stop Arkansas. I heard from a lot of you on that one. I was wrong. I was wrong. I was wrong.
I told everybody that Alabama-Mississippi State would be close, but I didn’t believe it enough to pick the Bulldogs.
I believed Florida State had turned a corner as they went to Virginia Tech. Wrong.
I believed Kansas was due to get beat when they went to Okie State. Double wrong.
And finally, I knew Ohio State-Illinois would be close but I couldn’t make myself pull the trigger for the Zooker. Could have looked real smart if I only had a little guts.
Oh well. We’ll try to do better this time as we present, with as much humility as possible, our Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Kentucky at Georgia: Given my sterling track record last week, a lot of you have asked me to pick Kentucky, thereby guaranteeing a Georgia victory. Nice try. I will say this. Kentucky has never brought an offense to Sanford Stadium as good as this one. QB Andre Woodson is big time but it also looks like RB Rafael Little won’t be able to go. The problems for UK are on defense where Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford should be able to make some plays. Georgia beats UK and pulls like crazy for Vanderbilt against Tennessee. Georgia 35, Kentucky 24.
2. Vanderbilt at Tennessee: You guys are going to beat me up on this one because early in the week I said publicly liked Vanderbilt to pull off the upset. But after some research and a few phone calls, I’ve had a change of heart. Tennessee is 6-0 at home this season and the Vols know they must win or be eliminated from the SEC East race. Vanderbilt will play Tennessee tough because they almost always do under Bobby Johnson. But the Vols have gotten a little second wind and will make enough plays to pull away in the fourth quarter. Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 17.
3. North Carolina at Georgia Tech: It’s important for the Yellow Jackets to finish 4-4 and not 3-5 in the ACC. I’ve said it all year and I’ll say it again. When No. 22 (Tashard Choice) is on the field, I like Georgia Tech against just about everybody they play. Will that be the case against Georgia? Come back next week and find out. Georgia Tech 24, North Carolina 14.
4. Mississippi State at Arkansas: This is a game that Houston Nutt really needs. A loss puts the Hogs at 2-5 in the SEC heading to LSU the day after Thanksgiving. The Hogs win at home, but I still think it is not going to end well for Nutt at Arkansas. Arkansas 17, Miss. State 14.
5. Boston College at Clemson: When the Tigers lost back-to-back games to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech a lot of people wrote Clemson-and coach Tommy Bowden-off. Now the Tigers need a victory in prime time to go to the ACC championship game. Thanks to Alpharetta QB Cullen Harper, Clemson will get it. Clemson 31, Boston College 20.
6. Miami at Virginia Tech: How many different ways can you say “embarrassing?” If Miami is going to lose 48-0 at home to Virginia, what in the world will happen when the Hurricanes got to Blacksburg, where the Hokies are in the race for the ACC Coastal title? This one has the potential to get really ugly. Virginia Tech 34, Miami 14.
7. Maryland at Florida State: Florida State QB Drew Weatherford got his bell rung last week in a loss to Virginia Tech. He is expected to be back for the Terps (5-5), who are coming off a 42-35 win over Boston College. Florida State (6-4, 3-4) needs this one to finish .500 in the ACC. Florida State 34, Maryland 24.
8. West Virginia at Cincinnati: West Virginia (8-1) is still in the BCS race (at No. 6) but the Mountaineers will not have an easy time against the Bearcats, who lead the nation in forcing turnovers (35) and have beaten South Florida and Connecticut in consecutive weeks. West Virginia has the edge with QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton, but this will not be an easy game. West Virginia 24, Cincinnati 21.
9. Ohio State at Michigan: A funny thing happened during Ohio State’s march to the BCS championship game. The Buckeyes (10-1) lost to Illinois and so today they go to Ann Arbor needing a win to get to the Rose Bowl. Michigan (8-3), which lost to Wisconsin last week, has a chance to make history. If the Wolverines win, they will become the first team in history to go to the Rose Bowl after losing to Appalachian State. Michigan 17, Ohio State 16.
10. Oklahoma at Texas Tech: Oregon’s loss to Arizona Thursday night has thrown the door to the BCS wide open for the eventually Big 12 champion—Oklahoma, Missouri, or Kansas. The Sooners (9-1) now have a real shot of getting to New Orleans if they can win out. Getting to Lubbock and playing Texas Tech is never easy, especially when QB Graham Harrell (4,878 yards passing, 43 TD) is playing well, as he is right now. Oklahoma wins a scary game. Oklahoma 42, Texas Tech 35.
Is Clemson ready for prime time?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the weekend:
1. Is Clemson ready for prime time? I believe I asked this question once before about the Tigers, just as they were getting ready to play Georgia Tech (a game they lost). Clemson has a history of knocking on the door of something special and then coming up short. If the Tigers (8-2) can beat Boston College Saturday night they will go to the ACC championship game. But can they get it done on national TV with a big chunk of the country watching?
2. Can the Bulldog Nation get up two weeks in a row? I talked to a lot of Georgia people who were in Sanford Stadium last Saturday and they said it was one of the best atmospheres ever. No question the crowd had an impact on the game. Can the Georgia people bring that same passion to Saturday’s game with Kentucky? There will be no black jerseys. Mark Richt won’t send the team onto the field after the first touchdown. It will just be 60 very important minutes of football and a game Georgia must win to have any hope of getting to Atlanta.
3. Can Notre Dame upset Duke? I’m serious. Have we seen anything this season to make us think Notre Dame (1-9) is better than Duke (1-9)? Duke coach Ted Roof began this season on a 20-game losing streak so he needs for something good to happen this week and next week against North Carolina. Beating the Irish at Notre Dame Stadium, something six other teams have done this season, would constitute as good news for Roof.
4. Will Urban Meyer turn Tim Tebow loose? If Tebow can score seven touchdowns on the road against South Carolina, what can he do at home against Florida Atlantic (5-4)? Tebow is definitely back in the Heisman Trophy race after rolling up 524 total yards last week. How long will Meyer stick with his young QB on Saturday?**
5. Which Arkansas team is going to show up against Mississippi State? Two weeks ago the Hogs ran for 541 yards against South Carolina. Last Saturday the Tennessee defense played its second best game of the season (the best was against Georgia) in beating Arkansas rather easily (34-13). Arkansas (6-4) needs to beat Mississippi State on Saturday or it runs the risk of finishing the season with three straight losses and a record of 6-6. That would not be good for coach Houston Nutt, whose team plays at LSU in the season finale on Nov. 23.
It’s about championships, stupid
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
1. It’s about championships, stupid: One of the conversation lines on talk radio and blogs is that Georgia would actually be BETTER OFF if Tennessee won its last two games and went to the SEC championship instead of Georgia. Then, goes the logic, Georgia would be a lock for a BCS at-large bid if the Bulldogs could finish 10-2. That is dumb thinking on so many levels. College football is not about just getting to a good bowl. It’s about CHAMPIONSHIPS. Playing Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl would certainly be fun for Georgia and its fans. But getting to the SEC championship game for the fourth time in the Mark Richt era would be a much greater accomplishment.
2. Sylvester Croom should be the SEC Coach of the Year: Great coaching, in my opinion, is getting the talent you have on hand to play at its highest possible level. With wins over Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama this season Mississippi State’s Sylvester Croom has done exactly that. Not many teams bounce back from a 45-0 loss (to LSU) in their opener. Kentucky’s Rich Brooks, who seemed all but done after the 2005 season, also deserves some strong consideration.
3. The Phillip Fulmer talk is over: Like a lot of people, I was certainly wrong about last week’s Arkansas-Tennessee game. I thought the Hogs and Darren McFadden would run right over a weak Volunteer defense. But what I didn’t take into account is that Fulmer coaches better with his back to the wall than just about anybody. If the Volunteers beat Vandy and Kentucky and go to the SEC championship game, you could make a very strong case for Fulmer as the coach of the year.
4. Watching Miami is very, very sad: A little over a year ago I predicted that Miami’s days as a power in college football were over. After the fight with FIU and the way it was handled, I really wondered if the program could recover. But I was encouraged by the hire of Randy Shannon and thought I might be wrong. But for Miami to lose 48-0 to Virginia in its last game in the Orange Bowl is just sad to watch. The program is now officially at rock bottom. Can Shannon start rebuilding from here?
5. Nick Saban has had a successful first season at Alabama: Yes, I know. The record says 6-4 and the Crimson Tide has yet to play Auburn. But understand this. Nick Saban was hired to make Alabama football relevant again on the national stage. Yes, with a break here or there the Crimson Tide could be sitting here with 8 or 9 wins. But the journey to being a championship program inevitably begins with a season like this as the new head coach establishes his principles of success. Alabama’s players have to learn how to win on a consistent basis.
Can Kansas jump over Oregon?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Here is one man’s Top Five as we head down the stretch:
1. LSU (9-1): The Tigers dodged a bullet against Auburn (30-24) and they dodged a cannon ball against Alabama (41-34). They are at Ole Miss this Saturday and host Arkansas on Nov. 23. Then comes the SEC championship game where a win puts them in New Orleans for the BCS title. I agree with Mark Bradley. If LSU has to play Georgia at the Georgia Dome, things could get very interesting.
2. Oregon (8-1): The Ducks are playing well but their final three games with 4-6 Arizona (Thursday night), UCLA (5-5) and Oregon State (6-4) are not particularly exciting. Oregon not only needs to win these games, it needs to win impressively.
3. Kansas (10-0): Here is my bottom line on Kansas. The Jayhawks played a lousy non-conference schedule: Central Michigan (6-4), I-AA Southeastern Louisiana (2-8), Toledo (5-5), and Florida International (0-9). But if Kansas runs the table, it would have beaten No. 5 Missouri (Nov. 24) and No. 5 Oklahoma (Big 12 championship game) in consecutive weeks. The Jayhawks will have beaten Kansas State, Colorado, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State on the road. They would have hung 76 on Nebraska. That’s a better resume than Oregon’s and the Fighting Manginos would jump into the No. 2 hole ahead of the Ducks.
4. Oklahoma (9-1): The Sooners need to be careful this week against a mad Texas Tech team in Lubbock. Oklahoma’s best chance is to run the table (Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Big 12 championship) and hope that Oregon stumbles. If Oklahoma beats Kansas convincingly on Dec. 1 while Oregon is beating Oregon State, the voting for No. 2 might get interesting.
5. West Virginia (8-1): I’m not sure any of these teams would want to play the Mountaineers right now. They are just impossible to stop when QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton are both healthy. West Virginia has an interesting game this week at Cincinnati. Then it finishes at home with Connecticut and Pittsburgh
Mark Richt has tapped into Erk Russell
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. Mark Richt has tapped into Erk Russell: For my money, the late Erk Russell was the best motivator of college football players who ever lived. Coach Russell knew how long a college football season is for players and that every now and then they needed a little something “extra” to get an edge for a big game. Richt has done that twice for Georgia’s players and the Bulldogs have rewarded him with vintage efforts against Florida and Auburn. It is part of Mark Richt’s maturation into a great head coach.
2. The rules don’t apply to Tim Tebow: After watching Florida’s quarterback score seven touchdowns (5 running, 2 passing) against South Carolina, I’ve finally decided this: All of the conventional rules we believe about college football do not apply to him. I’ve said all season that he could not carry the ball 20 times a game. I’ve said that Urban Meyer probably puts too much of the offensive burden on him. Well, maybe this kid is so special we have to think of a different set of rules for him.
3. The Zooker can coach a little, too: While he was at Florida Ron Zook was tagged as a guy who could recruit but could not coach a lick. After winning at No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday, the Illinois head coach showed that he might know a thing or two about coaching them up. If the Illini beat Northwestern and finish 9-3, wouldn’t it be fun if Zook’s team were matched up with Florida in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando? I’m just asking.
4. Kansas has convinced me: I keep waiting for the Jayhawks to come back down to Earth, which I thought they would do at Oklahoma State on Saturday night. Wrong again. If Kansas (9-0) wins out, they will have beaten Iowa State (3-8), No. 5 Missouri (9-1), and No. 4 Oklahoma (9-1) in consecutive weeks. That’s good enough for me. In that case they should jump No. 2 Oregon (8-1) into the BCS championship game.
5. I’m not sure Hawaii (9-0) will make it to the BCS: The Warriors barely beat Fresno State (37-30) late Saturday because quarterback Colt Brennan suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter. Hawaii did not move from No. 16 in the BCS Standings. They have to get to No. 12 to get an at-large bid, most likely in the Sugar Bowl. All this speculation about Hawaii may end Friday when the Warriors go to Nevada (5-4). Hawaii also has games left with Boise State (9-1) and Washington (3-7).
Auburn wins a street fight against the Dawgs
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We were 7-3 last week because we picked Alabama to upset LSU. With about three minutes left that pick was looking pretty good but Les Miles rolled the dice and won again.
That gives us a record of 68-32 as we head down the home stretch.
Here, without apology or a lot of intelligent thought, is another Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. Auburn at Georgia: The Bulldogs feel pretty good about themselves and rightfully so with impressive wins over Florida and Troy. But Auburn has three things going for them: 1) They are mean and nasty and will turn this game into a street fight; 2) They have a better defense, and 3) They are the visiting team and for some strange reason, the visitors seem to win this game most of the time. This will be an old fashioned smack-them-in-the-mouth kind of game. That kind of game favors Auburn. Auburn 17, Georgia 13.
2. Georgia Tech at Duke: Yellow Jacket running back Tashard Choice is ready to go and that means Georgia Tech will win, regardless of the opponent. Georgia Tech 31, Duke 14.
3. Arkansas at Tennessee: Tennessee is 5-0 at home and that usually means something. But Tennessee’s defense simply isn’t very good. Unless the Vols can force three or more turnovers, they can’t win. Arkansas 24, Tennessee 21.
4. Florida at South Carolina: The Head Ball Coach would love to knock his former Gators out of the SEC race. If his team were healthy, the Gamecocks would really have a shot. But Florida has too many weapons. Florida 24, South Carolina 14.
5. Alabama at Mississippi State: It’s only a short drive down U.S. 82 for Alabama, but it’s going to be hard for the Crimson Tide to get up after that heartbreaker last week against LSU. Alabama wins an ugly game. Alabama 14, Mississippi State 10.
6. Kentucky at Vanderbilt: Kentucky is still mathematically in the SEC East race while Vanderbilt needs a win to qualify for its first bowl since 1982. Commodores play well but come up short against a rested group of Wildcats. Kentucky 21, Vanderbilt 17.
7. Wake Forest at Clemson: The Tigers control their own destiny in the ACC Atlantic and will have a sellout when the Demon Deacons come to Death Valley. Cullen Harper throws a late touchdown and Clemson wins a close one. Clemson 17, Wake Forest 14.
8. Florida State at Virginia Tech: Florida State quarterback Drew Weatherford is starting to figure some things out and has gone two straight games without an interception. Virginia Tech has the best defense he has seen. Seminoles post their second straight upset. Florida State 17, Virginia Tech 16.
9. Kansas at Oklahoma State: The Jayhawks hung 76 points on Nebraska last week and now the whole world is knocking on their door. Everybody’s talking about the Nov. 24 showdown with Missouri. Okie State pulls the upset. Oklahoma State 14, Kansas 10.
10. Illinois at Ohio State: It is very tempting to pick Illinois because the best time to play Ohio State is the week before the Michigan game. But the No. 1 Buckeyes stumble through this game and get ready to go to Ann Arbor. Ohio State 20, Illinois 17.
Does the Ball Coach have any tricks left for Gators?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head into the weekend:
1. Does the Ball Coach have something left in his bag of tricks?: On paper, Saturday night’s Florida-South Carolina game in Columbia should not be close. The Gamecocks are beat up after last week’s loss to Arkansas. The strength of the defense is the secondary where cornerback Captain Munnerlyn and safety Emmanuel Cook are really hurting. Steve Spurrier beat Florida in his first meeting with his old school in 2005. Last season he had the perfect game plan but lost 17-16 on a blocked field goal. A win over Florida would knock the Gators out of the SEC East race. Does he have something special cooked up for Saturday night?
2. How geeked up are Will Muschamp and Hugh Nall? Muschamp played at Georgia for Ray Goff. Nall was a center on Vince Dooley’s 1980 national championship game. Muschamp is the Auburn defensive coordinator and one of the young rising stars in the coaching ranks. Nall is the Tigers’ top-notch offensive line coach. Think they’ll have their troops ready when they walk Between the Hedges on Saturday? Yep, but so will Georgia assistants Stacy Searels (offensive line) and Rodney Garner (defensive line), who played for Pat Dye at Auburn. Stuff like that is why Georgia-Auburn is one of my favorite games.
3. Is Clemson ready for prime time? Clemson’s Tommy Bowden seems to begin every year on the hot seat but now he has a chance to have a very pleasant off season. Beat Wake Forest at home on Saturday and then beat Boston College the next week, also at home, and the Tigers will be playing in the ACC championship game for the first time. This team is capable of winning both games but can it handle the glare of the spotlight? Over the years Clemson seems to get in this position only to stumble.
4. Will Georgia Tech take care of business at Duke? If RB Tashard Choice is ready to go, I expect the Yellow Jackets to easily roll in Saturday’s game. Don’t quite know what it is, but Tech is a different team when Choice is on the field. It’s not just his talent, which is considerable. Tech just seems to have more energy on both sides of the ball when Choice is carrying the mail. Better make sure he’s healthy for Georgia.
5. Is Houston Nutt going to make it? After pounding South Carolina last week, the heat has subsided a little bit at Arkansas. What if the Hogs win at Tennessee on Saturday? The Hogs would then be 7-3 with games left against Mississippi State and LSU. Arkansas has had only one bad game all year against Kentucky (42-29). They lost to Alabama (41-38) on a last second touchdown pass and to Auburn (9-7) on a field goal, also with seconds left.
Tuberville will listen if Texas A&M calls
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
1. Tommy Tuberville will listen to Texas A&M: It’s pretty certain that the Aggies are going to make a coaching change and the discussion of the salary will probably start north of $3 million. Tuberville will not discuss this publicly or swear his eternal allegiance to Auburn because, quite frankly, he doesn’t have to.
Why? Two words: Bobby Petrino.
Since that failed coup attempt in 2003 Tuberville is 25-5 in the SEC and 9-2 against the Top Ten. Of course he will listen. He will also listen to LSU (if Les Miles goes to Michigan) and to Arkansas, if they make a change. And at the end of the day he may stay exactly where he is—with a raise, of course.
2. Knowshon needs his touches: It’s a good thing for Georgia that Thomas Brown is ready to go again. But Knowshon Moreno needs to get at least 20 carries on Saturday against Auburn. The great backs wear down a defense and that doesn’t happen until he gets over 15 carries. Auburn has a great defense. The only way to beat that defense is for it to get tired. Knowshon needs to get the rock to do that.
3. Tennessee cannot stop Arkansas: Arkansas ran for 541 yards against South Carolina. Louisiana-Lafayette ran for 234 yards against Tennessee. So what do you suppose Arkansas is going to run for against Tennessee, the No. 9 rushing defense in the SEC? The answer is a lot. Tennessee will have to outscore the Hogs and force some turnovers to have a chance.
4. Florida State has turned a corner: Earlier this year Florida State was a bad, bad, football team, particularly on offense. But last Saturday’s night’s 27-17 win at Boston College was one of the most complete games the Seminoles have played in a couple of years. QB Drew Weatherford deserves a lot of credit. In his last two games Weatherford has completed 64 of 92 passes (69.5 percent) for 693 yards and zero interceptions.
5. Bama had better be careful in Starkville: Mississippi State caught Kentucky coming off a tough loss to Florida a couple of weeks ago and beat the Wildcats in Lexington. Alabama has to sag a little bit after losing to LSU, a game it could have won. But if the Tide mopes too much, Sylvester Croom’s Bulldogs could pull off another upset.
Can LSU handle being No. 2?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
For the fourth time this season No. 2 got beat again last week, when Boston College fell to Florida State. So now it’s LSU’s turn to snuggle up to No. 1 Ohio State. Can LSU handle it? Are we FINALLY done with the drama for this season? Has all the cream risen to the top?
Not a chance.
Here is this week’s Tony B. Top Five.
1. Ohio State (10-0): I know. I know. After watching Florida beat down the Buckeyes in Arizona last year, you think this team is a fraud. If that’s true, we’ll find out. Ohio State gets Illinois at home this week where the Bucks are a double-digit favorite. I’ve always said that the best time to play Ohio State is the week before Michigan. Don’t be surprised if Ohio State gets a scare from the Zooker.
2. LSU (8-1): What is so amazing about the Tigers is that if the ball had bounced (or been dropped) another way, LSU could be on a four-game losing streak right now. But Les Miles and the gang found a way to win three of four close games. Anyone who looks at this team up close and personal is amazed at the talent level. Having survived last Saturday’s trip to Tuscaloosa, it’s tough to see LSU losing to Ole Miss or Arkansas. Now if the Tigers get Florida or Georgia in Atlanta (SEC championship game), it might be interesting.
3. Oregon (8-1): I have friends around the country who are convinced that the Ducks are the best team in the country. And when you look at the way QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathon Stewart run up and down the field, they just may have a point. The question is: How would this team match up against LSU’s defense? If Ohio State stumbles in the next two weeks, we just might find that out.
4. Oklahoma (8-1): The way the Sooners played against Texas A&M (42-14) it’s hard to see anyone stopping them. But they have a couple of interesting games coming up. On Nov. 17 they go to Texas Tech, which is always an adventure. Then they play at home game against an Oklahoma State team that is getting healthy again. Then the Sooners will face either Kansas (9-0) or Missouri (8-1) in the Big 12 championship game.
5. West Virginia (7-1): When QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton are healthy, this is easily one of the top five teams in America, if not the top three. And right now they are very healthy. The Mountaineers are entering a tough stretch: Louisville on Thursday, at Cincinnati on Nov. 17, and at home against No. 13 Connecticut (8-1) on Nov. 24. Do not forget about this team.
LSU must be a team of destiny
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five things we learned over the weekend:
1. LSU must be a team of destiny: There is no other explanation for the fact that LSU lives on the razor’s edge and has escaped so many times to stay alive in the national championship race. Some teams just have the ability to make mistakes and overcome them with talent. LSU is just such a team. It could be that the Tigers are simply meant to play for the BCS national championship in New Orleans. And if they play Ohio State, the Tigers will win.
2. Darren McFadden is back in the Heisman race: When he’s completely healthy, No. 5 of Arkansas is the best football player in America. After running for 321 yards against South Carolina, he may follow it up with another big game against Tennessee, the No. 9 rushing defense in the SEC. Matt Ryan of Boston College threw three interceptions on Saturday and thus his chances were hurt. Now it’s McFadden, Ryan, and Oregon QB Dennis Dixon.
3. Alabama is going to be just fine: What we really learned Saturday is that when Nick Saban gets some players, the Crimson Tide is going to be tough. Alabama was really outmanned against LSU but found a way to make enough plays to lead the game until the final three minutes. When Saban bumps up the talent level, and that is happening right now, the Crimson Tide will be a regular contender in the SEC West. The sheer fact Alabama played in such a high profile game in November means that Saban has had a successful first season.
4. Georgia Tech needs to be careful: Georgia Tech’s 27-3 loss to Virginia Tech was an awful performance by the Yellow Jackets. There is no way to sugarcoat that. And right now a lot of Georgia Tech fans want to throw Chan Gailey under the bus. But those people need to look at the young talent in the program and the way recruiting has been on an up-tick the past couple of years. Are you ready to start over and compete with a whole bunch of schools that are going to be looking for coaches in December? It’s easy to say you should change coaches when you think your program should be at another level. But it is not always the right thing to do. Just ask Nebraska. Just ask Ole Miss.
5. Saturday will be Knowshon Moreno’s kind of game: Moreno looks like a kid who, the tougher the game is, the more he likes it. Well, Georgia’s New Jersey Jet is really going to like Saturday’s game with Auburn. You know that Auburn’s defensive coordinator, former Bulldog Will Muschamp, will have his troops ready for Moreno. If you’re going to Saturday’s game, better leave the women and children at home. This one will be for men only. It will be standing room only in the training room on Sunday.
The stars say Bama will beat LSU
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The record was 6-4 again last week because I didn’t have the guts to pick Georgia, Kentucky finally had their letdown against Mississippi State, Texas A&M didn’t man up against Kansas, and Arizona State continued to defy the odds and beat California. That gives us a record of 61-29 in what has to go down as the craziest seasons these old eyes have ever seen.
So let’s begin what promises to be a November to remember with another edition of the Fearless Friday Forecast.
1. LSU at Alabama: Logically, we should go with LSU in this game. The Tigers have more athletes, especially on defense, and are still in the hunt for the national championship. But every now and then the stars are aligned just right for an undermanned team at home to create some magic. The stars point to the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Alabama 20, LSU 17.
2. Troy at Georgia: Surely, after hearing about the Trojans and Omar Haugabook all week, the Bulldogs will be ready against the team that could win the Sun Belt Conference. Georgia needs to start building momentum towards next week’s big showdown with Auburn. Georgia 31, Troy 17.
3. South Carolina at Arkansas: The Gamecocks will have to get over a bitter defeat at Tennessee last week. Because if they beat the Hogs Saturday and knock off Florida next week in Columbia, South Carolina can still win the SEC East. Arkansas and coach Houston Nutt are literally fighting for their football lives. Gamecocks win in a squeaker. South Carolina 17, Arkansas 16.
4. Vanderbilt at Florida: The Gators are in the same situation as South Carolina. If they take care of Vandy today on Homecoming, next week’s game with the Gamecocks could be huge. Florida is really beat up and will have to win this game on guts. Florida 21, Vanderbilt 14.
5. Florida State at Boston College: In a wild season of upsets, we’re about due for another one. No. 2 BC escaped with a win at Virginia Tech last week and is due for a letdown. Florida State has a number of fast athletes on defense and they could give QB Matt Ryan some problems. This one will rock the BCS. Florida State 17, Boston College 10.
6. Wake Forest at Virginia: Wake Forest has won six straight since starting the season 0-2 and, if Boston College loses, the Deacons are right back in the ACC Atlantic race. Virginia finally ran out of luck last week against N.C. State but the Cavaliers are still in control in the Coastal Division. That will not be the case after Saturday. Wake Forest 24, Virginia 17.
7. Clemson at Duke: The Tigers are gearing up for two huge home games against Wake Forest (Nov. 10) and Boston College (Nov. 17). But the Tigers sometimes lay an egg when their fans least expect it. That won’t happen on Saturday because Cullen Harper of Alpharetta is giving Clemson great play at quarterback. Clemson 31, Duke 10.
8. Arizona State at Oregon: The Sun Devils (8-0) have overachieved in their first year under Dennis Erickson. Quarterback Rudy Carpenter is nursing a sore thumb and that is never good. Oregon’s Dennis Dixon runs the spread option better than anyone and that’s not good for Arizona State, either. For the Sun Devils, the streak ends here. Oregon 35, Arizona State 21.
9. Wisconsin at Ohio State: Wisconsin has won three straight at Ohio State and three of the last four meetings overall with the Buckeyes. But Ohio State is an efficient team and quarterback Todd Boeckman is getting better every game. It’s tempting to go with the Badgers in an upset, but Ohio State (9-0) looks like a team that may soon be punching its ticket to New Orleans.
10. Nebraska at Kansas: It’s been almost 100 years since Kansas was 9-0 in the sport of football and we keep waiting on the Fighting Manginos to come back to earth. But the Jayhawks are the real deal on defense and quarterback Todd Reesing, who is averaging 272.3 yards of total offense per game, is starting to impress some people. Looks like Kansas may just roll until the Nov. 24 showdown with Missouri in Kansas City. Kansas 28, Nebraska 17.
Miles, LSU under more pressure
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Five burning questions as we head for the weekend:
1. Who’s feeling more pressure, Les Miles or Nick Saban? That’s an easy one. LSU’s Miles is the coach of the No. 3 team in the nation. He’s supposed to win. Some fans are saying that Miles is 29-5 because 17 of his 22 starters were recruited by Saban. If LSU falls Alabama is in first place in the SEC West and LSU loses a shot at the national championship. Alabama and Saban are playing at home. And if LSU loses, Miles’ critics will be out in full force. Yeah. Not much pressure there.
2. Will Georgia’s FANS be ready for Troy? I’ve heard a number of Georgia fans wonder if the Bulldogs will be flat against Troy after the big win over Florida. I heard Ray Goff say this last Sunday and I agree with it. Georgia’s fans also need to take this game seriously. Quarterback Omar Haugabook is a big time quarterback who knows how to run the spread offense. What will be the energy level in Sanford Stadium when the game starts?
3. Will Tyrod Taylor be at full speed? The Virginia Tech quarterback is the X-factor in tonight’s game with Georgia Tech at Bobby Dodd Stadium. He missed the Boston College game with a high ankle sprain but earlier this week said he would be ready by Thursday. If he is anywhere near full speed, his mobility presents a problem for the Georgia Tech defense. Sean Glennon, who stared against BC, presents fewer problems.
4. Is Florida in trouble against Vanderbilt? The Gators are really banged up after the loss to Georgia and they go to South Carolina to play Steve Spurrier next week. But Florida is still very much in the SEC East race if both Georgia and Tennessee lose once more. Vanderbilt has already beaten South Carolina on the road this season and almost beat Georgia in Nashville. Florida has to win this game.
5. What happens if Arkansas loses to South Carolina? The Razorbacks are 1-3 in the SEC. A loss to South Carolina means they will be 1-4 with Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU left to play. Arkansas could lose all of those games. It’s hard to see Houston Nutt surviving that.
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