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Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Trying to project the BCS bowls
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
To project the BCS bowls two weeks before the end of the regular season, you have to make a few assumptions. That is always a dangerous thing, particularly in this whacky season.
But here are two sets of BCS projections, one with No. 1 LSU winning the SEC championship game and another with either Georgia or Tennessee winning the SEC title. All other conference champions are projected except for Ohio State, which clinched the Big Ten title last Saturday.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS
These teams receive automatic bids to the BCS:
•ACC: Virginia Tech (11-2) beats Virginia and then beats Boston College in ACC championship game.
•SEC: LSU (12-1) beats Arkansas and then Georgia/Tennessee in SEC championship game.
•Big East: West Virginia (11-1) beats Connecticut and Pitt.
•Big Ten: Ohio State (11-1) has clinched Big Ten.
•Big 12: Oklahoma (11-2) beats Kansas in the Big 12 championship game.
•Pac-10: Southern Cal (10-2) wins its last two games with Arizona State and UCLA and Oregon loses at least one without QB Dennis Dixon.
AT-LARGE POOL
To be in the at-large pool, a team must have nine wins AND finish in the Top 14 of the BCS Standings. One conference may not have more than two teams in BCS games.
•Kansas (11-1): Loses to Oklahoma in Big 12 championship.
•Missouri (10-2): Loses to Kansas this Saturday.
•Arizona State (10-2): Loses to Southern Cal this Thursday but beats Arizona.
•Georgia (10-2): Beats Georgia Tech but does not get to SEC championship.
•Florida (9-3): Beats Florida State to finish in Top 12.
•Texas (10-2): Beats Texas A&M on Friday.
•Hawaii (12-0): Beats Boise State and Washington.
BCS GAMES IF LSU WINS SEC
•BCS Championship: LSU vs. West Virginia.
•How it happened: LSU stays at No. 1 after winning the SEC championship. No. 2 Kansas loses to Oklahoma and West Virginia moves into the No. 2 position.
•Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawaii
•How it happened: Because the Sugar lost the SEC champ to the BCS title game, it gets to pick first from the at-large pool. The Sugar takes Georgia, one of the hottest teams in the land. The Sugar also picks last because New Orleans is hosting the BCS. championship game. It picks Hawaii to play the Dawgs.
•Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Texas/Kansas
•How it happened: Virginia Tech would be an automatic as the ACC champ. The Orange would choose between Kansas and Texas. This would be a tough decision because Texas has a stronger TV appeal.
•Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
•How it happened: As the Big 12 champ, Oklahoma is an automatic to the Fiesta. The hometown Arizona State Sun Devils are sitting there at 10-2. It’s a no-brainer.
•Rose: Ohio State and Southern Cal.
•How it happened: If the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs aren’t in the big game, they automatically go to the Rose.
BCS GAMES IF GEORGIA/TENNESSEE WINS SEC
•BCS Championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
•How it happened: Both No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Kansas get beat on Dec. 1. That moves No. 3 West Virginia and No. 4 Ohio State up and into the national championship game. Georgia (11-2) gets squeezed out and finishes at No. 3.
•Sugar Bowl: Georgia/Tennessee vs. Hawaii
•How it happened: Georgia/Tennessee goes to the Sugar Bowl as the SEC champion and faces Colt Brennan and the high-flying Hawaii offense.
•Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Texas/Kansas
•How it happened: Nothing changes for the Orange, which wants to take Texas but will feel pressure to take Kansas.
•Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
•How it happened: Nothing changes for the boys in Tempe.
•Rose: Southern Cal vs. LSU
•How it happened: Because the Rose lost Ohio State to the BCS championship game, it gets to pick first from the at-large pool. It surveys the landscape and decides to take LSU at 11-2. When it appeared the Tigers were headed to Pasadena last season, their fans pre-purchased over 45,000 tickets. LSU ended up in the Sugar, but the folks at the Tournament of Roses haven’t forgotten that gesture.
