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Breaking down the national championship race

The first BCS standings are now only a few weeks away (Oct. 14) and some teams are starting to separate themselves from the field.

1. LSU (4-0): South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier found out early in his game last Saturday that the Tigers are simply unblockable. There is no use trying to run on these guys. On offense, any team that can bring Ryan Perrilloux off the bench to play quarterback is ridiculously deep. In fact, this could be the deepest team that LSU has ever had.

2. Southern Cal (3-0): The Trojans have looked invincible the past two weeks against Nebraska (49-31) and Washington State (47-14). But the road schedule could catch up with them as USC goes to Washington (Saturday), Oregon (Oct. 27), California (Nov. 10), and Arizona State (Nov. 22).

3. Oklahoma (4-0): Oklahoma’s 51-13 win over Miami now looks a little more impressive. And if Texas doesn’t beat the Sooners on Oct. 6, who will? Oklahoma has scored at least 50 points in every game.

4. Florida (4-0): The Gators drop a spot because last Saturday (30-24 win over Ole Miss) we were reminded that they are a talented, but young, team. The defense gave up too many big plays. QB Tim Tebow had to carry the ball too much. Still, if they find a way to win next week at LSU, Florida be in position to make another run at the national title.

5. West Virginia (4-0): The Mountaineers could be the first contender to get knocked out of the box when they go to South Florida on Friday.

Possible breakthroughs:

California (4-0): The Bears are at Oregon this Saturday and that won’t be easy.

Clemson (4-0)/Boston College (4-0): Two long shots at best, but they meet on Nov. 17 in Clemson. If one is still undefeated after that game, it could be in the mix.

Ohio State (4-0): With Penn State losing to Michigan, the Buckeyes and Wisconsin are the Big Ten’s only hopes.

Texas (4-0): We won’t know about the Longhorns until Oct. 6 in Dallas against OU.

Wisconsin (4-0): The Badgers had to fight like crazy to beat Iowa (17-13). They still have to play at Penn State and at Ohio Sate.

Permalink | Comments (41) | Post your comment |

Comments

By Roswell Ed

September 25, 2007 9:21 AM | Link to this

Will UF run all over AU Sat Tony?

Let’s not forget that AU had 10 turnovers in their 2 losses.

One of those losses was to a team that you say may knock out a national champ contender Fri night.

The other loss was to a team that hung around with your number 1 team for a half.

AU very easily could have won both those games even with the 10 turnovers.

Will AU win Sat nite? Probably not.

Could AU win Sat nite? Yes sir!

WAR EAGLE!!

By Mike K

September 25, 2007 9:27 AM | Link to this

I didn’t see the end of the second half of the Florida-Old Miss game. Was it a question of Ole Miss making some plays or did Florida let up on the gas a bit after getting the big lead?

By Erk

September 25, 2007 9:42 AM | Link to this

I could easily see Fla & LSU playing each other twice this year and splitting, meaning no national championship for either. Another example of how hard it is to come out of the SEC and win a NC because of the strength of the conference.

Roswell Ed, I think Florida beats Auburn pretty soundly at the swamp, but I bet Auburn will be closer to normal by later in the season and will beat either Ga (I hope not) or Alabama. You can pretty much throw the season records out for those rivalry games.

By Pat

September 25, 2007 9:43 AM | Link to this

Tony, Tony, You sportswriters are getting like the national media and the 2008 presidential race. Breaking down the BCS on Sept. 25 after only 4 weeks of play and 3 weeks before the first BCS rankings is foolish. Find something new to write about, like Spurrier or Saban. Ha! Ha!

By Andy

September 25, 2007 10:01 AM | Link to this

The college football “National Championship” is the dumbest title in all of sports. These teams play schedules that have zero basis for comparison. The “experts” who choose who plays in the “Big Game” are more afraid of looking bad to their peers than in “picking” the right teams to play a one game “title match” five-six weeks after the end of the season.

By the way, I think both LSU and Florida will loose a game and the “National Championship Game” will be West Virginia or Oklahoma, who play one or two game seasons, versus Southern California. Of course Southern Cal will blow either team out.

Also, one game five or six weeks after a team finishes the regular season and has time to heal proves absolutely nothing!

The only reason Texas one a few years ago was that they had one of the best players in the history of college football, Vince Young. Young, like Peyton Manning before him, was also completely robbed of the Heisman trophy, which definitely does not go to the best college football player of the year.

Throw either Oklahoma or West Virginia in the SEC, and they both loose at least two games. By the way, throw Rutgers in the SEC and they would loose four-five.

I think the college bowl season more closely resembles the NFL preseason than any type of meaningful system for choosing a “mythical national champion.” But there are a lot of suckers in this country, and I’m sure there is lots of money being made.

By Wozzo the Wonder Dog

September 25, 2007 10:11 AM | Link to this

If LSU does not contend for the national championship then LSU fans need to question Les Miles’ manhood. Having said that, we all know the SEC is a meatgrinder and who would not be surprised to see LSU and UF split the regular season game and the SEC Championship matchup thereby keeping the SEC out of the big picture. It won’t happen but most of us would like to see USC, OU, LSU, and WVU run their respective tables and make the BCS a joke.

By Eric

September 25, 2007 11:02 AM | Link to this

You’re right on target Ed. Could Auburn beat Florida? They did it last year! Could it happen agian? Hell yes it could! After all, Tim Tebow is not Nick Saban. War Eagle!!!

By Eric

September 25, 2007 11:07 AM | Link to this

Thank you Mr. I dye my hair College Football. Floida plays Auburn this week and what game do you mention in your column, next weeks gig with LSWho. You’re a pip, Toni!

By Winston

September 25, 2007 11:50 AM | Link to this

I will be at the game Friday night watching WVU that is West Virigina to you SEC and Georgia fans with short memories beat USF. Didn’t Georgia get beat in the Sugar Bowl by a Freshman Mountaineer team. I wish LSU had won the SEC championship because I am stationed in Louisiana and I am tried of hearing how great the SEC is especially LSU. I will take my hat off to LSU this year too bad they will have to demonstrate their talents outside LA. I will be willing to sacrifice a National Championship just to beat LSU in a bowl game this year. WVU was been lined up to play LSU in another bowl several times and I would love to have victory over them once while I am in LA. Before you get your panties in an uproar, I do believe the SEC is the best conference. However, when you have that many teams in a conference you are bound to have a couple of good teams. Also, when you have that many teams you have to have a playoff. As for WVU, if LSU would be willing to give us a few defense lineman, I don’t think WVU would be questioned so much. I love college football and at the end of the season, anyone in the top 5 could have won the championship if there players were at there peak and the turnovers went there way. There are very few times a team dominates college football as the champion. As for Oklahoma, please, if you want to talk about an overrated conference I think Big 12 gets more ratings than the Big East and the Big East is a small conference that everyone loves to bash. But as the old coach said, they put on their pant leg one at time just let you.

By KR

September 25, 2007 11:54 AM | Link to this

While it would be nice to think that Florida is looking past Auburn and focusing on LSU, I don’t think that’s happening. Whether they admit it or not, Florida’s loss to us last year really bugs them. They want pay back.

Auburn has the talent to knock off Florida, but they haven’t managed to show it so far. It’s going to take some monumental shifts in confidence and game strategy to pull that off.

I hope Tuberville and company have found the key to unlocking Auburn’s potential.

WAR EAGLE!

By KKL

September 25, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this

Still not sold on Les Miles…time will tell.

By pvb

September 25, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

Auburn can and WILL win Sat in Hogtown for the biggest upset in the SEC thus far. UF is about to lose 3 of its next four games. How can I possibly say this, you ask. Very simple: (1) UF has NO running back, (2) their pass D is porous, and (3) no pass rush.

By Just my two cents

September 25, 2007 12:33 PM | Link to this

There’s just something about Florida that rubs me the wrong way. Somebody’s going to figure out how to stop Tebow one of these days. Its going to happen. The more they play the more film other teams will have on this offense. Ole Miss coming within 6 of them was no fluke.

This team loses at least two games this year. I think they go down hard to LSU and Auburn, Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina are no gimmes.

By bill

September 25, 2007 1:03 PM | Link to this

Well well.I see the Gator haters are moving today.

This is a revenge game for UF.Nobody seems to remember that.

Auburn has not exactly torn it up on offense.UF hung 42 offensive points on UT.Put 30 on Ole Miss despite a rash of penalties and a Rebel team playing sky high against the reinging National Champs.

This Florida team will play much better this Sat.

By Realistic Ricky

September 25, 2007 1:36 PM | Link to this

You Auburn folks are almost as delusional as UGA fans. The “smart money” says the Tigers are an 18 point underdog to the Gators this week, yet you Auburn fans are talking smack like you really believe Auburn will win. Based on what? Two “almost wins” against Miss. State and South Florida? Get serious, Roswell Ed, or are you really Mister Ed???

By Already Tailgating

September 25, 2007 1:42 PM | Link to this

Winston - Punctuation is your friend. Please use it if you want anyone to read your incoherent ramblings. Don’t worry, I’m sure you’ll learn all about it when you take graduate classes at WVU.

By D.Ellis

September 25, 2007 2:10 PM | Link to this

Winston-The teams West Virginia this year have beat are a combined 4-12. Yes West Virginia has a very good team….but they will not earn the right to play for a National Championship.

If they would schedule some harder non-conference teams then that would help I think….not Western Michigan, East Carolina, U-Conn,and I’ll hand it to them…they did schedule Mississippi State…who happens to be 3-1 this year….like I said great offense….good team….but they will not earn the right to play…they will be looked at like Boise St. if there are more than 2 undefeated teams and they are one of them.

By D.Ellis

September 25, 2007 2:40 PM | Link to this

Sorry Winston-I did not know that U-Conn was in the Big East. And you guys did play Maryland..my apologies….the out of conference schedule still is poor.

By Tom

September 25, 2007 2:50 PM | Link to this

Georgia is the one SEC team with a real shot at the national title. Simply beat all of those remaining, nationaly ranked teams on the schedule and take to the woodshed in the dome LSU in the dome. South Carolina will win out, with the exception of defeats at the hands of Florida and hated Tennessee. That will make the Georgia’s improbable and unlucky loss somewhat understandable. then we take a battled hardened SEC defense and Heisman caliber quaterback to New Orleans and beat USC 19-6. Done and Done

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 3:35 PM | Link to this

KR——Yup. You’re right; last year’s Auburn game really does bug UF fans and, I am quite certain, the coaches and players. Tiger fans are certainly entitled to print and use those “AU Tigers 27, national Champions 17” bumper stickers. Your kids won fair and square on their home field. I won’t whine about the officiating, or the funny bounces that oblong balls sometimes take, but there is a sense that if Florida had played Auburn 10 times last year, the Gators would have won 7 of 10.

In 2007, the Gators are looking forward to playing your Tigers at Florida Field. No smack talk necessary——‘nuff said.

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 3:59 PM | Link to this

Tom——It’s good to see that you haven’t lost your sense of humor.

By Bob

September 25, 2007 4:05 PM | Link to this

Atlanta Gator,

I don’t disagree about the bounces of the football and you may indeed have beaten Auburn 7 of 10. Maybe, maybe not.

But if that is true, then I think you might also have done no better than split with LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia. After all, seems to me you forgot all the “good bounces” you got against those teams.

Auburn completely shut you guys down in the second half.

Congrats on your National Championship, but if USC doesn’t lose to UCLA in that final game, you would have been in the Sugar Bowl whupping up on the Irish.

Bounces and officiating go both ways dude.

By 2N4YEARS

September 25, 2007 4:21 PM | Link to this

As seen with the FLA-Ole Miss game, FLA best not overlook AU. To make matters worse for the Gators they play LSU @ LSU at night, then play Kentucky, then UGA. UGA has a bye-week before FLA, finally.

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 4:42 PM | Link to this

Bob——Everything you said is true about funny bounces, officiating and fan predictions about playing the same team 10 times in a season. But to win as many close regular season games as the Gators did last season (5 games by 7 or fewer points) speaks well of both the Gators’ coaches and their SEC opponents, and those close wins were not flukes. The outcome of the BCS championship game, however, leaves little doubt that one of the two participating teams did not deserve to be there.

War Eagle (back at ya)!

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 4:47 PM | Link to this

P.S. Bob——And there’s nothing wrong with whupping up on the Irish in the Sugar Bowl. It could become the new national pastime. LOL

By Big Dawg

September 25, 2007 5:00 PM | Link to this

Good one Atlanta Gator, but I don’t think anybody will have the chance of beating the Irish in a bowl game this year. LOL

BTW the Gators were the best team last year and they took control and won the National Championship and no one gave it to them.

By Bob

September 25, 2007 5:10 PM | Link to this

Atlanta Gator, You are right about their coaching and you have to win the close ones to make it to the dance…plus have a bit of luck. I am a Dawg, but Auburn didn’t get those breaks in 04. That is why I still believe the number one goal is remains winning the championship of the best conference in football. If you can do that and get the right breaks you have a shot at the BCS. And if you make it to the BCS, you have more than a good shot to win it.

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 5:12 PM | Link to this

Big Dawg——You are gentleman and a football scholar.

By Big Dawg

September 25, 2007 5:27 PM | Link to this

Thanks and it is good to see you posting again. Those with class like yourself, General Neyland, SECfan and War Eagle are a plus to this site.

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 5:40 PM | Link to this

Bob——For a Dawg, you sure are right an awful lot.

MNCs are nice, but SEC championships are earned the old-fashioned way: on the field. I don’t know about you, but I always enjoy New Year’s in New Orleans. grin

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 5:46 PM | Link to this

Big Dawg——Early in the season, I didn’t have much to add to the blog discussion. It was mostly Dawg fans’ comments about their own team and their hopes for the season. Now, that the season is well under way, I have a little more latitude to comment. After all, who REALLY wants to hear what a GATOR alumnus has to say about the UGA offensive linemen before the season even starts?

By Paul Hamilton

September 25, 2007 5:50 PM | Link to this

It’s pretty easy to predict now what Florida will do, and the strategy teams should use. You make them run the football on you, and you manage the clock with a heavy dose of the run and some passing mixed in. The key to staying with Florida is eliminating the big play potential, and wearing Tebow down by making him run the ball. It’s not rocket science. Ole Miss played this strategy brilliantly in the first half and held on in the second half.

Florida has a great offense, but their defense sucks with the exception of that freshman corner they have. Tenn would have easily scored 40+ if Ainge wasn’t hurt. He couldn’t even hand it off to to his running backs much less throw it.

Florida may win the east, but I will be surprised if LSU doesn’t beat them by 10 to 14 pts.

Oh and whoever said USC would blow out Oklahoma, where do you come up with that? Nebraska has no defense at all and they are marginal on offense, and they scored 31 pts on USC and actually stayed in the game until the second half. Oklahoma is way better than anyone USC has played.

By Bob

September 25, 2007 6:09 PM | Link to this

Paul Hamilton,

I am not a USC fan, but not sure what game you were watching. Nebraska put up 3 pretty touchdowns well after the issue was decided. Oklahoma is the team that should be questioned. The Big Eight is awful….much, much worse than the PAC 10. Since 2001 we have had Big Twelve Frauds getting into the National Championship Game when others were more deserving. Remember Nebraska in 01 when they didn’t even win their division, lost their final game 62-28 and still got in to get pounded by Miami? How about 03 when OU got blasted 35-7 in their championship game yet still made it to the dance to be beaten by LSU. USC got the shaft that year. And then, the very next year OU again got in over Auburn and were destroyed by USC. I don’t think Auburn would have beaten USC, but I do know they would have given a hell of a lot more than the Sooners did. I don’t think USC would blow out this Oklahoma team, but I am not in any way convinced that the Sooners could beat USC, LSU, Florida or West Virginia.

By Bob

September 25, 2007 6:21 PM | Link to this

Sorry about that “Big Eight” comment. My age is showing.

By Ka-bosh

September 25, 2007 6:54 PM | Link to this

Great stuff T … I have to say, though, I just don’t see LSU going unbeaten. Too many Tiger teams in the past have slipped. And that leads me to believe this one will, too. www.gatoralert.com

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 7:23 PM | Link to this

Bob——In fairness to Paul Hamilton, it appears you also forgot about that little upset perpetrated by the Longhorns against the Trojans. If memory serves, Texas is now a member of the Big XII (nee 8).

As a long-time Gator, I would not mind seeing Oklahoma win another title. (You may recall that Bob Stoops was the Evil Genius’ defensive coordinator during the Gators’ ‘96 title run.) The Sooner defense will be good, but the question is whether the Sooner offense could keep up with the likes of USC or LSU.

Personally, I don’t think that this is the Gators’ year to make another title run, but if we get past LSU anything could happen. To win the big BCS game, however, the Gators’ young defense would have to do a lot of growing up in the next 2 months, and I expect that young Tebow will eventually have the off-game, too, as all first-year QB starters do.

Nope, probably no BCS title game for the Gators, but our Gator kids might have a good crack at beating your Dawg kids for the 16th out of 18 tries, and that’s still a worthy goal. (Okay, I get to talk a little smack every now and again.) woof

By Atlanta Gator

September 25, 2007 7:31 PM | Link to this

Paul Hamilton——I wouldn’t be so quick to bottle your formula for beating the Gators based on the Ole Miss game. I think that you can quite rightly explain at least part of the close margin of victory be recognizing that this was the inevitable let-down after the Tennessee blow-out (heck, I think some of the Gator wide receivers were still winded from running up and down the field against UT).

If Auburn duplicates the Ole Miss formula and keeps it close against Florida, then I will be inclined to give your analysis a more serious look. In the mean time, how about you keep it to yourself and not share your thoughts with Coach Tuberville?

By Bob

September 25, 2007 8:00 PM | Link to this

Atlanta Gator,

Of course you are right about the Longhorns winning at the Rose Bowl. Again, I am not a USC fan, but there seems to be a real hatred of them in SEC country that I find somewhat unjustified. After all, they have annhilated the last two SEC teams they have played.

My point, which I failed to really thoroughly explain, was that the Big Twelve seems to have really retrogressed. Even when Texas won the title, their opposition within the conference was really bad. I think the same might be true this year for OU. I mean the Big XII North is really a joke, unless Mizzou comes through. The South, which had been fairly decent is really looking weak too. Baylor is Baylor. Texas A&M is worse than they were under Slocum. Texas Tech and Okie State have interesting offenses that certainly can be potent, but Liechtenstein has a better defense than either of them.

I just don’t think the Sooners have any real challenge outside of possibly Texas. I know they are an outstanding team, but that 2003 team was supposed to be the “greatest team of all time” until K-State walloped them.

I agree the Gators are probably too young. If the Dawgs continue to develop, I do think the game formerly known as “The Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” will be another good one…and boy are we ever due.

By War Eagle

September 25, 2007 8:07 PM | Link to this

Auburn started three true freshman and one redshirt freshman on the offensive line last week. There are only 12 seniors on this team with sophomore, RF and true freshman playing major roles.. win against Florid, doubtful, but not impossible? Auburn always plays good against a high rank Florida teams. Auburn has a great future.

By Almost Heaven West Virginia

September 25, 2007 9:48 PM | Link to this

WVU will NOT lose to South Florida. White, Slaton and Devine will run all over them. The D gives up a TD and the O will score three more.

and you UGA fans, that Sugar Bowl win was the SWEETEST victory ever! FAKE PUNT!!! LOL

By TrueCrimson

September 26, 2007 1:02 PM | Link to this

If LSU makes it through the regular season without a loss, they will almost surely win the NC. Will they do this? Unlikely. Les Miles has enjoyed the luxury of coaching a team with superior talent and has never yet failed to suffer a major meltdown against an inferior opponent in the SEC. The future for Les Miles lies in Ann Arbor. Who will coach the Bayou Bengals in 2008? Jimbo???

Southern Cal will almost certainly drop one. If not, they will be in the big game by default. They live on their past reputation. Oklahoma looks formidable. At this point in the season, I expect them to end up in the number 2 spot. Only an undefeated SEC team could put a fly in that ointment.

With that said, it’s much too early in the season to play this guessing game. But it’s fun and harmless, so what the hey?

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