AJC > Sports > Blog > Archives > 2007 > August > 22 > Entry
Will Alabama fool the “experts?”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Every season we have surprise teams that defy the “experts” and surpass expectations. Last year it was Wake Forest, which came out of nowhere to win the ACC championship. Who will be the surprise team this season? Try these five on for size:
1. Alabama: Everybody (me included) is picking Alabama to finish fourth in the SEC West. Why do I keep getting this feeling that Nick Saban, the $4 million man, is going to do something with this bunch? With nine starters back on offense and a bunch of holes on defense, this looks like a seven-win team at best. Why do I get the feeling it will be 8 or 9 wins?
2. South Florida: Everybody’s conceding the Big East championship to West Virginia and Louisville. It would be wise not to overlook the Bulls. They have the Big East Rookie of the Year from 2006 in quarterback Matt Grothe (2,576 yards passing, 15 touchdowns). Eight starters return on each side of the ball. They get West Virginia and Louisville at home.
3. Arizona State: Say what you want about Dennis Erickson, but he took Oregon State to the Fiesta Bowl and won two national championships at Miami. The man can coach ball. He expects to be very competitive in his first season in Tempe with 10 starters back on offense and six on defense. This team will go to a pretty decent bowl game.
4. N.C. State: Everybody (me included) is picking N.C. State to finish last in the ACC Atlantic. But there is a new sheriff in town in coach Tom O’Brien. There are some tough non-conference games in UCF, Louisville, and East Carolina, but O’Brien could get this team to six wins.
5. Missouri: Yeah, I know. A lot of people are picking the Tigers to win the Big 12 North. But Missouri has not won any kind of football championship since 1969 so I’ll believe it when I see it. Missouri has a very good quarterback in Chase Daniel, one of nine starters returning on offense. If Missouri is in the Big 12 championship game, I’ll be surprised.
Am I wrong about any of these teams? What teams did I leave out? What would be your top five?





DEL.ICIO.US
Comments
By Joe
August 22, 2007 8:23 AM | Link to this
Why did you pick Alabama to fool the experts…because you want to cover your a$$! Teams like Auburn and GA are pratically replacing their entire offensive lines. They have huge question marks as well.
By Frustrated, Inc.
August 22, 2007 8:38 AM | Link to this
Joe: nobody is picking Auburn to do anything this year. It appears, according to the “experts”, that LSU has already won the west. Nothing more to see in that division.
By D-MAN
August 22, 2007 8:41 AM | Link to this
Yeah, I mean UGA has ALOT of question marks…dont get me wrong, I am glad the AP poll shows belief in the system to where they would rank the dawgs as high as 13…but there are a lot of “what-ifs”. I think if the team gels and we do well this year it is all because of CMR and his staff pulling it all together…I just dont think they get enough credit!
By 2N4YEARS
August 22, 2007 8:58 AM | Link to this
WHAT??? Come on, Tony. Are these the teams to write about? I can see ALA, and I agree with your assumption, but these others?? South Fla may be a decent team, but do they really deserve a place on your top 5 surprise teams? Ditto for Ariz St, Missouri & NC St.
By austindog
August 22, 2007 9:04 AM | Link to this
Nobody knew Wake would take the ACC, but everyone knew Tech would blow it.
By 2N4YEARS
August 22, 2007 9:10 AM | Link to this
A few of my choices of surprise (in no particular order): 1)Kentucky. Yeah, they might not sneak up on teams as much as last year, but they should be better, so they should win another 8 games this year, surprising someone big. I have them upsetting LSU this year, and LSU going 11-1 and winning the West. 2) UGA might not be a ‘surprise’ to DAWG fans, but they will slowly but surely work their way into the top 10 and inch their way up even further before all is said & done. 3) FlaSt will have a bounce-back year. Look for them to win 10 games and the ACC Championship. 4) MICH will be the winner of the Big 10. 5) USC will win the Pac 10, but CAL will be on their heels. 6) L’Ville will get beat by Kentucky, but should win the Big East. 7) Wake Forest will be back to a 7-5 season. 8) This will be Tommy Bowden’s last year at CLEMSON. 9) TEXAS should win the Big 12, but neither them or OU will run away from the rest of the Conference.
By Shocker of the Century
August 22, 2007 9:59 AM | Link to this
The nation will be surprised when Vandy shocks Florida in the swamp. Don’t say you weren’t warned. You heard it hear first. After near misses the past two seasons, Vandy finally gets it done this year. Tennessee: Check. Georgia: Check. Florida: Assume the position.
By BellToller
August 22, 2007 10:05 AM | Link to this
Somebody’s gonna be surprised when the Warriors come over from the islands to spank somebody’s arse in a BCS bowl game. When you hear the bells start tolling, you’ll know they’re for thee.
By Eric
August 22, 2007 10:39 AM | Link to this
Is Auburn still in the league?
By Jesse
August 22, 2007 11:04 AM | Link to this
Tony,I’m still not sold on Les Miles as a head coach. He hasn’t won the “big game” yet and is still in Saban’s shadow. I think Alabama finishes 3rd in the West.
By reality check
August 22, 2007 11:13 AM | Link to this
Kentucky and Vandy could really surprise some people.
People talk about how SEC East coaches Fulmer, Spurrier, and Meyer have produced National Championships. So has Vanderbilt’s coach - 2 of them at Furman. He can coach and he has built that program up. Vanderbilt gave a lot of “name” teams all they wanted last year, and we all know what they did between the hedges. Their game at Michigan was very much in doubt until late in the fourth quarter and they almost beat Alabama. I predict they will have a winning season and go to a bowl this year.
Kentucky had the best offense in the SEC East last year and the worst defense. Those defensive starters are back and if their new defensive coordinator can get them going, Kentucky could be a load.
Georgia also has the potential to really surprise people this year. We have a tough schedule, but if we win the tough early games - and we should be favored - a lot of the experience questions will go away. The word out of Athens is our talent level has never been better.
By reality check
August 22, 2007 11:18 AM | Link to this
One more team I should mention is Tech. I’m a Georgia fan, but not one who hates Tech.
General Neyland always said championship teams are built on defense, the kicking game, and offense, in that order. I believe that is still true today.
Tech’s defense and kicking games are top notch. There are many who think Reggie Ball was their problem the past few years. I’m not convinced of the “addition by subtraction” theory, but with their running game and offensive line, Tech could be pretty good on offense.
By Kofar
August 22, 2007 11:22 AM | Link to this
I think Georgia Tech surprises some folks. They have promised the team a Tickle Pile at seasons end and free admission to the Girlyman competition. At Tech this is great motivation.
By Buck in the NW
August 22, 2007 11:26 AM | Link to this
Tony, some good picks with Ala. leading the way. I do believe I’ve read where a few Dawgs say the “O” will have to carry the “D” in Athens. I agree with 8-9 wins for ‘bamma because of the radical change with in Saban. When he hired Applewhite and turned the “O” over to him so he could concentrate on “D” that marked a real change for him. JPW is a pretty good QB and their “O” is going to be a wide open affair like Tide fans aren’t use to seeing. His “O” won’t upset our applecart because we’ll have played two great offences but they’ll catch some people not looking.
By The Big Bug
August 22, 2007 11:27 AM | Link to this
Austin Dawg, Gailey & Ball blew it. The rest of the team could have won blindfolded.
By Kuai kuwae'e
August 22, 2007 11:27 AM | Link to this
I guess it wont be a surprise when the Warriors stomp that mainlander arse every week en route to a national championship. Aloha, bleaches.
By 2N4YEARS
August 22, 2007 11:39 AM | Link to this
Yawn….. Hawaii who??
By The Big Bug
August 22, 2007 11:40 AM | Link to this
Reality check, The kicking game killed the Jackets last year. What good is is a 60-yard punt that is returned 40 yards? Improvement here is a must.
By BellToller
August 22, 2007 11:42 AM | Link to this
Vandy and Bama would be surprised when Colt B and the boys hung half-a-130 on em, anywhere, anytime. Let em toll mf’ers, let em toll for thee!!
By dben
August 22, 2007 11:43 AM | Link to this
The Apocalypse must soon be near
A Vanderbilt fan is talking trash
SURELY MUST BE ONE OF THE 7 SIGNS
By Merculf
August 22, 2007 11:47 AM | Link to this
Don’t forget about the Auburn Tigers! Everyone says they have too hard of a road schedule but they can win at LSU, UF, Uga(over 50% of the time)and Arkansas.
By WarEagle
August 22, 2007 12:29 PM | Link to this
Auburn is flying under everybody’s radar and is gonna surprise a lot of so-called experts this year! Can you say “2004”!!
By Waikiki I Kick Ye
August 22, 2007 12:39 PM | Link to this
2N4YEARS try beating the teams from your border states before yawning at someone who crosses oceans to beat tail every other week. And your WR’s suck every year.
By 2N4YEARS
August 22, 2007 1:26 PM | Link to this
Waikiki I Kick Ye , HA…lol. CFB News just ranked UGA as the #7 top program out of 119 D-1 teams. And just to enlighten you, GEORGIA has won 44 games in 4 years, playing in THE toughest Conference, vying for the SEC Cahmpionship 3 times & wining it twice. So before you Hawaii jokes start claiming that you belong, beat 3 or 4 top 25 teams in a single season. You could at least start making your case by putting more than one or two teams on your schedule besides those gloridied high school teams.
By BellToller
August 22, 2007 2:01 PM | Link to this
Try beating florida once in a while before you dawgs start talking junk. come on to the islands, or better yet send an invite our way. Colt, JSquared, and the Warrior faithful will be glad to come toll your bell. We’ll see who has the better record at the end of the yr, and who’s ranked higher. Have fun losing to Tenn, Fla, and Aub. Probably Bama too.
By JSquared
August 22, 2007 2:43 PM | Link to this
Listen to the Bell Boise St it tolls for thee
By 2N4YEARS
August 22, 2007 2:48 PM | Link to this
Oh no, here we go again. Ye knows ye has won the argument when ye other starts bringing Florida into the picture. Thought we were talking about Georgia & Hawaii?? ps-Georgia lost by 7 to NC Fla. Ohio St. lost 41-14. UGA also holds the record of wins on Fla. by 15+. Nothing personal, though. I like the Island.
By 2N4YEARS
August 22, 2007 2:55 PM | Link to this
WarEagle , I think AU will be good this year, and probably surprise a team or two. But I don’t see them being good enough to win the SEC— they won’t be that far under the radar. ANd the reason I believe that is Cox isn’t good enough to get them there, and they’ll be w/o K. Irons as a RB. Cox fell apart last year & never really looked that good. AU should still win 9-10 including the bowl game.
By Forever_UGA
August 22, 2007 4:50 PM | Link to this
Am I the only one that finds it extremely comical that there are a couple of Hawaii smack talkers on the UGA blog? What’s so comical is that they(as well as we) both know that Hawaii is one injury away from turning into the dormant volcano that they normally are. Better hope Colt doesn’t get hurt, huh? Stick that in your Wahickyliki and toll on that m’f’ers cuz it will take it’s toll on thee!! LOL!!!
By scooter11
August 22, 2007 5:01 PM | Link to this
WEagle: AU may be under the radar, but I’ll bet they could whack Hawaii.
By Forever_UGA
August 22, 2007 5:13 PM | Link to this
Ok, maybe this isn’t a true UGA blog, since it’s Barnhart’s blog talking about ‘suprise’ teams, but still, you know what I’m getting at. Keep the Hawaii Smack Talk coming, I can hardly catch my breath from all the laughter!!! LOL!!!
By Dave
August 22, 2007 5:14 PM | Link to this
Are you picking USF to win the BE? It wouldn’t be a surprise for the Bulls to be 3rd, a BCS birth would be a surprise. Have fun with our old LB, Stephen Nicholas- he’s one mean puppy. I didn’t really follow the Falcons before, but I will because of him.
By reality check
August 22, 2007 6:18 PM | Link to this
Big Bug, you have perfectly illustrated something I said in Tony’s blog two days ago when i responded to “why isn’t Tech getting any love” from the polls. The reason is Tech fans are so negative toward their program. If a Georgia fan really wants to have a little blog fun, just go on the Tech blog and write something nice about Tech. The Tech fans will rip you apart, dog cussing Chan Gailey and even Durant Brooks.
Tech may have had a 40 yard return on a 60 yard kick last year as you say. I don’t doubt you. But Brooks had an average of 45.5 yards a kick last year, one of the top RESULTS in the country. His net RESULT was 40.7, which is outstanding.
Your turn, Big Bug. Rip your team.
By reality check
August 22, 2007 6:24 PM | Link to this
That apocalypse talk is funny dben. But I’m not a Vandy fan and I wasn’t talking smack. I was just responding to Tony’s blog topic and I think Vanderbilt is going to surprise some people this year. Both their talent and their experience level has shown continuous improvement under Johnson. I thought they would drop off after Cutler graduated, but that hasn’t happened. They’ve gotten better and they’ve got some really good talent coming back on both sides of the ball
By Buck in the NW
August 22, 2007 7:08 PM | Link to this
Tony’s got another one right. USF is going to upset a couple of teams if not more in ‘07. It’s taken them a long time but they’ve built a solid program and are continuing to do so. Be careful before you lay a wager against them.
By capstone1
August 22, 2007 8:33 PM | Link to this
Bama will get better over the season at defense. It is easier to defend than make plays. Bama will be able to score this year in the red zone. Thats right Tony! Bama is ready to explode. The Tide will not lose the close games in years past or get out coached. Watchout Boogs(Aubs for your GA folks), Tenn will lose to Bama also.
By Wolfman
August 22, 2007 8:39 PM | Link to this
Tony: very astute observation, picking the Wolfies as a possible surprise. If General O’Brien’s Wolfpack can get some quality OL and QB play (i.e, manage the game and eliminate mistakes), there is plenty o’ talent to win 6+ games and dismiss last place prognostication. The defense is still solid despite NFL exodus and former parade all-american’s Toney Baker and Andre Brown, along with little known Jamelle Eugene, are as good a RBs as anyone. Maybe the ‘Pack will upset Louisville in Raleigh…you heard it here first!
By Jere Morton IV
August 22, 2007 9:14 PM | Link to this
6 Wins would serve as that big of a surprise? I know we may be a bit delusional when it comes to expectations… But 6 wins should not surprise anybody.
Toney Baker and Andre Brown will have huge years if O’Brien can get his offensive line to produce. And we all know he brings a great coaching staff with him, so line play should be better this year. SEVEN losses last season were by a TD or less. Close games, in my opinion, come down to coaching… and again, TOB knows how to win ballgames. He will have better “athletes” down here and will have a very good football team.
6 wins won’t be great, but it should be about what to expect… Not the #4 Biggest Surprise in the country.
By phenix city ben
August 22, 2007 9:57 PM | Link to this
someone will beat alabama this year, but for sure it won’t be auburn.
By bhdawg
August 22, 2007 10:31 PM | Link to this
Tony,
I heard you on the radio (790 The Zone) this morning talking about the two keys to Georgia’s success this year: the development of our young offensive line and the emergence of Brandon Miller at middle linebacker. You may be interested to learn that Miller was moved to strongside linebacker about a week and half ago and Dannell “the Freak” Ellerbe has replaced him. Just thought you might find this of interest.
BHDawg
By bama12titles
August 23, 2007 2:44 PM | Link to this
Phil Steele picked the hogs last year to win the west due to his statistical analysis of yardage,returning starters,etc. The Bama stats are eerily similar. A team that statistically dominated many of their opponents in 06 only to find a way to lose will find a way under Nick Saban for 8-10 wins but LSU wins the west. But watch out for Bama in year 2 under Saban. He is building the looming juggernaut.
By rolt1de
August 23, 2007 4:32 PM | Link to this
Yes I am a bama fan but I have to admitt, Auburn does better under the radar. LSU has spent so much time worrying about Alabama and Nick Saban it is going to affect them. After they loose their first game they will start second guessing themselves and their coach.
By izzy
August 24, 2007 1:49 AM | Link to this
If you pick NC State to finish last in their division (and publically admit it) but then publically think they are gonna be a surpise team; what the hell is that? What kind of insightful analysis is that. Sounds like you’re just playing both ends against the middle so that whatever happens you can say: “See i told u so, i’m a genius.”
By Rich
August 30, 2007 8:25 AM | Link to this
Georgia as well as Tech’s seasons depend on one game, the 1st. If they both win there openers then anticipate great seasons.
Bama, finish 2nd in the west
Florida, wins the east
Tech, if they can be VT, should make the Champ. but will have a hand full in Jax against a very much improved FSU team. You can have all the young talent in the world but talent+experience= good results.
That Warner Robins baseball team has loads of talent, but they couldn’t beat the Columbus team right now.
By Plus One
August 31, 2007 8:19 AM | Link to this
I would say Penn State will be the “surprise” team in the Big Ten this year with all the hype surrounding Michigan and Wisconsin. Michigan’s defense is going to be responsible for at least two losses this year this year and Wisconsin has a brand new quarterback who will lose at least one game for the Badgers. Why people are putting Ohio State in the top 3 of the Big Ten is a mystery to me since they have to replace the entire offense. Penn State returns talent on both sides of the ball and will only improve as the year goes on. The Nittany Lions will get the “big game jitters” out of the way early (Notre Dame) and have a bye week (Buffalo) before heading into Ann Arbor for the Big Ten upset of the year. And after Ohio State beats up on the dead horse at the end of the year, Chad Henne will win the Peyton Manning award for the “best quarterback who couldn’t beat his team’s arch rival or win a national championship”. WE ARE…PENN STATE!! 2007 Big Ten Champions.